Looks like USCIS is slow for last 5-6 months, pending cases are piling up .
Next 2-3 months would give us better clarity on PERM -> I-140 numbers.
Looks like USCIS is slow for last 5-6 months, pending cases are piling up .
Next 2-3 months would give us better clarity on PERM -> I-140 numbers.
Thanks O & Kd.
I think it is still high, if you look @ YOY.
On a different note: Spec we like you around here. Just in case, if you are still off
Yes Leo,
The YoY is high, As discussed in this forum earlier , The DOL started clearing backlog cases from Mar'10 onwards and It continued till Jan-Feb this year. Only +ve thing is the trend is decreasing for the last 3 months MoM. If this trend continues further, its good for us. I Hope we have less number of PERM/I-140s filed coming months.
or it just could be that reduction is due to holidays(thanksgiving to new year)Originally Posted by Osaka001
O,
Welcome and thanks. Here is "A" way to look at your data.
In 2010 - 73.7K completions contributed to 26.5K SOFAD @150 full quota.
In 2010 - 66.8K (projected) completions => 7K less 140 => 5K less EB1+EB2-ROW 140 => 10K less EB1+EB2-ROW 485 => 10K quota is fully offset by reduced demand => 2010 net SOFAD repeated in 2011 => 26.5K net SOFAD => 30K total SOFAD => EB2 IC date movement upto Apr-May 2007.
Of course the 2 key assumptions above are : 1) YTD 140 demand linearly projected to full year 2) 2K reduced 140 demand will be due to EB3.
Just a few thoughts guys ... don't mean to get people excited. But painted just one of the many possibilities.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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srinivasj,
It could be, the following are the PERM labor approvals(ballpark) by month for Q1 2011
October 2010 - 4,100
November 2010 - 6,100
December 2010 - 8,150
Also, it will take few weeks before employer/attorney can file i140 upon PERM approval.
Even though all approved labors may not make it to i140, Based on the above data we can expect more receipts starting January 2011.
Q,
Based on Q1 2011 PERM data we can expect more i140 receipts starting January 2011.
Why do you think so. Is it because ... you think Q1 2011 saw PERM surge?
Interesting data and interesting observation. Q's view shows estimated SOFAD about 30K which is 3.5K more than last year, which I wish to come true.
Last edited by gcwait2007; 02-23-2011 at 03:24 PM.
Zoolander?
LOL( your question was part of veni001's post/answer)
In reality, shouldn't we worry about only Q1 & Q2. for folks whose dates are current, like ROW, does CIS/DOS reserve/allot a visa right at the time of 140 or after 140 is approved?( Documentarily qualifed stage).
If it's not until after 140 is approved, Thanks to CIS, we'll need to worry only about Q1 in that case.
in this scenario what is the chance of CIS opening doors for new applicants atleast till end of 2007?
I think you did not read the post above that. Veni had figured out the following PERM approval numbers:
October 2010 - 4,100
November 2010 - 6,100
December 2010 - 8,150
It may be a couple of months for Dec approvals to file I-140. Hence we may see an increase in receipts. Not necessarily a surge.
Imho
0%. They admitted that it was a mistake the first time around. All parties have learned a lesson out of that saga. In fact, I think both CIS and DOS have become more consistent post Jul-07.
Actually there isn't any surge in Q1 PERM approval data, demand is almost similar to FY 2010 but if you look at the approvals 3/4 rd of the approvals are in Nov & Dec so is will take few weeks before these applications get to USCIS.
Last edited by veni001; 02-24-2011 at 07:55 AM. Reason: typo
140 approvals happen throughout the year and so do PERM. So what you quote couldn't be a reason why there would be a surge (if there is going to be a 140 surge).
Same as above .... approvals happen throughout year. PERM 140 and 485 all are being filled through out the year. 485 is a bit special in that it needs date to be current. So teh nov / Dec PERMs when hit the 140 queue is not any unusual unless the approval rate itsel was high.
p.s. - For a given quarter one would expect that two months out of 3 constitute roughly 2/3 demand. Not sure if we are not speaking the same things!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
Sorry it's my typo, actually 3/4th of Q1 PERM approvals are in November(43%) and December(57%).
Alright. Thanks. Lets see in next few months.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Although the 1-40 & PERM approvals happen all round the year. Over the years, we have consistently seen DOL & CIS shuffle resources across various applications. Like H1-B,Ag-Jobs etc depending on the season, I guess. The same is reflected in approval-times in Trackitt, if you take slice(4-6 mon) of any application & compare the processing dates with a different slice, it varies considrably.
Makes sense. We have to wait and see if that 2-3 months of data turns into a trend.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, are we considering the case where companies couldn't file for Green Card/Labor for last 2 years due to layoff's and are starting to file now for all the ROW candidates from the last 2 years? Most big companies fell in this category I believe. This could surge the ROW approvals and thus reduce the SOFAD?
I think that threat is not substantial. There is no backlog in ROW EB2 created as a result of recession (unlike IC that added to the backlog that already existted). So for ROW its really FRESH demand. The jobs are coming back but they are not coming back roaring. And even if they did come back roaring, it takes time for them to work their way through teh inventory. Secondly any demand surge is DEFINITELY going to pale in comparison with backlog clearance sale we saw in 2010 for EB2ROW. So in nutshell I would be very surprised if EB2-ROW consumed a lot of visas because of NEW demand. If anything it would be prior year PERM remaining backlog that was cleared which is we are expecting to hit 140 and 485 queues.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Also,Q1 PERM data for FY 2011 doesn't show any ROW surge, only 6,596 ROW PERM certifications compared to 30,644 ROW PERM certifications for entire FY 2010!
This is a good news. So we can expect more spill over from EB2 ROW.
EB5 will provide spillover about 8.5K to 9K, as it has been providing from year after year.
EB1 should not eat away the EB5 spillover, that is the only worry I have.
gcwait2007,
I think we need to wait until Q2 PERM data out before drawing any conclusion.
Folks,
Have you seen this. USCIS posted Approval and Denials Statistics for I-140 EB1 & EB2 category from 2005 thru 2010.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
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