This is a very practical reason pointed out by you, and as you said, can't blame the applicant from doing that also.Originally Posted by shaumack
This is a very practical reason pointed out by you, and as you said, can't blame the applicant from doing that also.
Can someone provide some insights. Posted it in the old thread few days back. Thanks for the idea SmileBabaSaw you re-posting your post and then i thought, i can do that too.
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09-22-2011 09:55 PM #7889 GhostWriter
First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).
Can someone provide some insights. Posted it in the old thread few days back. Thanks for the idea SmileBaba
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09-22-2011 09:55 PM #7889 GhostWriter
First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questionsAlthough EB2-C have a much smaller number of applications in the backlog, it is too many for them to become Current ahead of EB2-I, as the current system works.- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
Although the normal allocation will will take them to a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I, it isn't enough to make them Current. When Spillover starts, it goes to the earliest PD, so EB2-I catches up.
As EB2-C normal allocation takes their COD further ahead, they receive less spillover.
The spillover interpretation changed with effect for FY2008. Here are the figures for FY2008 to FY2010:- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).
------------------ CHINA -------------------------- INDIA -------------------------- CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434
SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks for both the answers Spec, very helpful for my beginner level understanding.
Didn't know that SOFAD for 2009 was so much less that 2008 and 2010, hope we don't see that again. Was SOFAD in similar range of 25K for recently ended 2011 as well.
Once again your chart from last month is simply amazing.
GhostWriter,
Glad you found it useful.
I think the general consensus is that SOFAD for EB2-IC for FY2011 was about 30k (give or take).
We won't know the true figure until January, when the DOS Visa Statistics are usually published.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec.
Veni001, I agree with this statement for PWMBs: "Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months"
But, I think there are not many of us in the current VB.
Leo,
The movement from 15APR07 to 15JUL07 may have introduced about 2.1k PWMB for EB2-IC. That's about 26% of the total numbers for that movement.
Last edited by Spectator; 10-04-2011 at 08:57 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Leo,
Considering PERM approvals after July 2007 and other's who missed July 2007 filing deadline, EB2IC-PWMB filings for October 2011 should be around 3K.
Last edited by veni001; 10-04-2011 at 09:19 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Spec has already replied about the improbability of EB2C becoming current since their demand is still more than the annual quota and spillover rules will make EB2I catch up with EB2C. However, it would effectively mean that EB2I will receive ALMOST ALL of the spillover. EB2C will move enough with normal quota and most of the spillover will be consumed just to make EB2I catch up with EB2C. It is possible that in a year or so, all the spillover is not enough to catch up with EB2C and then EB2I will get ALL the spillover. EB2C does not need to e current for EB2I to get all the spillover.
That's very true. Very good summary.
Lets paint the flip side of it. If EB2C demand falls below annual quota, they will become current but then EB2C will no longer stand out a separate category. Rather they will become part of EB2ROW and EB2ROW's quota will increase by 2.8K. That will actually bode well for EB2C since then there won't be any quarterly limit they will be subjected to. It will dramatically improve their cycle time. Its quite tragic how a demand difference of couple of thousand could possibly improve EB2C's plight today.
Last edited by qesehmk; 10-04-2011 at 11:34 PM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Good point imdeng, thanks. Noticed that in the different spillovers consumed by EB2-I and Eb2-C provided by spec. So basically if any other country besides India or China were to lose the "current" status, it would be almost impossible for them to get it back since the spillover will go in the order of PDs.
I think EB2-C demand will be a little more than 2800, so it's difficult to become current. I think maybe the annual demand will equal annual supply. Basically PD for EB2C will move forward one year in one year.
Tonight I saw 5 extra EB-2C approvals and they have PD ranging from April to July. It looks like they are not approving based PD and it's like random.
This scenario is quite improbable though since there is enough accumulated demand in EB2C. Even if regualar yearly demand becomes less than 2800, only the difference will go towards backlog reduction and without any significant spillover (since EB2I will get most of that in this scenario) - it will be decade or more before EB2C becomes part of EB2ROW. Still - we do seem to me moving in that direction.
Yup - once a country becomes backlogged, it will likely remain backlogged unless their regular demand drops significantly before accumulated backlog becomes too large. South Korea is probably a candidate to join India and China soon.
It will be interesting to see how much lead EB2C PD will take over EB2I PD before spillover season makes then catch up.
Wow - 2009 was a horrible year. 2010 was decent only because of 10K FB bounty. Both years we received no spillover from EB1. BTW, in 2009 South Korea got more EB2s (4991) than China (3045). In fact, South Korea got more EB3s that India and China combined! Wow - that is messed up!!
By all accounts, we have had the best SOFAD in history. EB1 is key to the trend continuing - I hope it does.
imdeng,
I don't think it will be a factor this year.
DOS demand for the movement to date uses most of it up even without PWMB and once we reach 01AUG07, it will have been exceeded.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Trackitt is also showing a couple of EB2 I approvals with PD May and June. It's definitely random.
I think it will be what Teddy said, odds of winning lottery is 1/24 each month for Q1 approx. i.e. 250/6000.
That's good to know; so far I see 4 EB2-I approvals in trackitt in the 1st 2 working days of the month. 3 of them seem to be porting cases and for one person, the PD is June'07.
I think we also need to consider 1K - 2K cases with PD up to April'07 that were not approved last year; so there might be anywhere between 7K - 8K pending cases that are approvable this month. I guess it is fair for people with earlier PDs to get approval first but there seems to be some randomness in this procedure that one has to live with.
Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 2675 demand before Jan 1, 2008. This means DOS have released 5600 EB2IC quota in october itself.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Last edited by rdsingh79; 10-05-2011 at 09:00 AM.
Nishant, Bingo ! you were right...looks like the Nov Vb will be out on Friday or even before.
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