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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #751
    Hi cool189, first post on the first page has the summary. It's updated periodically.
    Quote Originally Posted by cool189 View Post
    Well .. it takes lot of time to go through each post to get the reasons .. is there any summary for this thread?

  2. #752
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Salary Breakdown for ROW

    I agree a wage only approach won't work for EB2 vs. EB3.

    I have my doubts about other combinations as well.

    To add to an earlier post, the breakdown by Annual Salary is as below. I have normalized the hourly / weekly amounts and corrected some real whoppers, such as the Cook earning 420,000 a year!

    Ann. Salary ----- No. ----- % ------ Cum. %

    500k + ------------ 6 ---- 0.07% ---- 0.07%
    400-499.9k -------- 8 ---- 0.10% ---- 0.17%
    300-399.9k ------- 33 ---- 0.41% ---- 0.58%
    200-299.9k ------ 149 ---- 1.85% ---- 2.43%
    100-199.9k ---- 1,626 --- 20.19% --- 22.63%
    90-99.9k -------- 589 ---- 7.31% --- 29.94%
    80-89.9k -------- 777 ---- 9.65% --- 39.59%
    70-79.9k -------- 813 --- 10.10% --- 49.69%
    60-69.9k -------- 827 --- 10.27% --- 59.96%
    50-59.9k -------- 812 --- 10.08% --- 70.04%
    Under 50k ----- 2,412 --- 29.96% -- 100.00%

    Totals -------- 8,052 -- 100.00%


    Hope it helps someone.
    Last edited by Spectator; 02-16-2011 at 07:48 PM.

  3. #753
    Spec, Can we get further breakdown of ROW individuals between 100-200K? I think many ROW individuals who could have filed in EB1-C would prefer filing this year in EB2-ROW just to avoid extensive scrutiny with EB1s. As if now it seems there are about 1800 individuals with salary above 100K. If we can further breakdown number between 100K-200K, we could try to guesstimate reduction in demand from EB1 that can be assumed towards EB2-ROW for FY 2011. I would think good percentage of individuals with salary above 150K could be Managers who could have filed under EB1-C.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post

    [FONT="Courier New"]Ann. Salary ----- No. ----- % ------ Cum. %

    500k + ------------ 6 ---- 0.07% ---- 0.07%
    400-499.9k -------- 8 ---- 0.10% ---- 0.17%
    300-399.9k ------- 33 ---- 0.41% ---- 0.58%
    200-299.9k ------ 149 ---- 1.85% ---- 2.43%
    100-199.9k ---- 1,626 --- 20.19% --- 22.63%

    .

  4. #754
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gokulram arunasalam View Post
    Safe to assume that 100k+ equates to EB2?
    Once the inventory is filled (the current 25k odd of EB2 I&C), would they open up the dates again to current or likely to just move it every month by 2-3 months at a time?
    25k will not suffice to clear EB2(I&C) backlog through July 2007 so no chance of making EB2 current! Assuming 3-6 months of processing time for i-485 they may have to open EB2 (I&C) at least until Dec 2007 to see how much more demand they got, my guesstimate is that this will not happen until Sept 2012!

  5. #755

    Lightbulb Interesting Labor Statistics

    Guys some interesting labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA ROW Q1 2011 Labor Data. One can draw wild conclusions from this ... so be careful. But interesting nonetheless.

    a) 96 cases approved indicating ratio of 69 between trackitt and actual
    b) approved cases mostly EB2 92/96 (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on ROW EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
    c) median turnaround time at 50 days
    d) pending inventory at 306 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 69 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
    e) of all pending ONLY 4-5 cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

    The last point is where it really becomes interesting. If new labor demand continues to dwindle then the chances of SOFAD going beyond Mar 07 increase significantly. Q2 labor data will probably be quite telling.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 02-17-2011 at 12:56 PM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
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    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

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  6. #756
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    USCIS Budget allowance increases 55% !!!
    Looks like one less reason for them to open the doors this year
    Source

    Just dreaming that we have a huge SOFAD this year, so that we all get covered

  7. #757
    Some more stats for 2010 PERM. Count of PERM certified by country. Note this list contains only those PERMS with wage > 50k (sorry, had to do this to reduce the row count)

    Below is a snapshot. For full list, see the attached file 2010_perm.txt
    COUNTRY_OF_CITZENSHIP PERM COUNT
    INDIA 27378
    CHINA 3378
    CANADA 3309
    SOUTH KOREA 2362
    PHILIPPINES 1382
    UNITED KINGDOM 1148
    PAKISTAN 919
    TAIWAN 872
    MEXICO 849
    GERMANY 576
    TURKEY 569
    JAPAN 527
    FRANCE 511
    BRAZIL 464
    VENEZUELA 460
    NEPAL 416
    RUSSIA 412
    COLOMBIA 407
    ISRAEL 377
    Attached Files Attached Files

  8. #758
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Guys some interesting labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA ROW Q1 2011 Labor Data. One can draw wild conclusions from this ... so be careful. But interesting nonetheless.

    a) 96 cases approved indicating ratio of 69 between trackitt and actual
    b) approved cases mostly EB2 92/96 (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on ROW EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
    c) median turnaround time at 50 days
    d) pending inventory at 306 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 69 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
    e) of all pending ONLY 4-5 cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

    The last point is where it really becomes interesting. If new labor demand continues to dwindle then the chances of SOFAD going beyond Mar 07 increase significantly. Q2 labor data will probably be quite telling.
    I admit I am feeling in quite a wicked mood, so I apologize in advance.

    Q already knows I don't like using Trackitt data over short periods and I know he is a good sport.

    Q has already made the point that his post was made with a BIG health warning. This serves to back that message up.

    Here are the same labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA India Q1 2011 Labor Data.

    a) 343 cases approved indicating ratio of 27 between trackitt and actual of 9,299
    b) approved cases mostly EB2 298/343 (88%) (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on Indian EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
    c) median turnaround time at 49 days
    d) pending inventory at 660 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 27 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
    e) of all pending ONLY 31 (5%) cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

    The stats are fairly similar. I don't think any of us believe India won't represent 40-50% of total PERM approvals and that they won't be very high.

    Just saying .....
    Last edited by Spectator; 02-17-2011 at 07:28 PM.

  9. #759
    I get the wicked point ..... it was funny until I realized that India EB3 story is the same as ROW EB3 here.

    But anyway .. what's the point Guru (other than the wicked one!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I admit I am feeling in quite a wicked mood, so I apologize in advance.

    Q already knows I don't like using Trackitt data over short periods and I know he is a good sport.

    Q has already made the point that his post was made with a BIG health warning. This serves to back that message up.

    Here are the same labor statistics using TRACKITT ATLANTA India Q1 2011 Labor Data.

    a) 343 cases approved indicating ratio of 27 between trackitt and actual of 9,299
    b) approved cases mostly EB2 298/343 (88%) (indicating either heavy EB2 approval or lack of interest on Indian EB3 to utilize trackitt or both)
    c) median turnaround time at 49 days
    d) pending inventory at 660 (but wait don't extrapolate using ratio of 27 since the longer a case is pending the more likely somebody is to put it in trackitt)
    e) of all pending ONLY 31 (5%) cases are recent. Everything else is mostly year or more old. Indicating that most of the pending cases have some issues.

    The stats are fairly similar. I don't think any of us believe India won't represent 40-50% of total PERM approvals and that they won't be very high.

    Just saying .....
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #760
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I get the wicked point ..... it was funny until I realized that India EB3 story is the same as ROW EB3 here.

    But anyway .. what's the point Guru (other than the wicked one!)
    The point would be that the data can't be extrapolated to indicate that EB2-ROW will be low in the future. Not yet anyway. Otherwise, we would have to draw the same conclusion for EB2-India as well. I don't think either of us believe that would be true.

    It wasn't intended as criticism (although some people might think so). You already know I am quite sensitive to that accusation.

    Rather it was a statement about Trackitt statistics and the inherent dangers of using them independent of other corroborating evidence.

    I think that is the approach you favor as well and rather nicely sums up the EB1 "problem", which still seems as insoluble as ever.

    I think it is fair that other readers of the forum should be aware of that to help them weigh the evidence accordingly.
    Last edited by Spectator; 02-17-2011 at 08:08 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  11. #761
    I don't think there is any disagreement about limitations of trackitt data. That's why all the disclaimers right? However your logic about India and ROW comparison is flawed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    The point would be that the data can't be extrapolated to indicate that EB2-ROW will be low in the future. Not yet anyway. Otherwise, we would have to draw the same conclusion for EB2-India as well. I don't think either of us believe that would be true.

    It wasn't intended as criticism (although some people might think so). You already know I am quite sensitive to that accusation.

    Rather it was a statement about Trackitt statistics and the inherent dangers of using them independent of other corroborating evidence.

    I think that is the approach you favor as well and rather nicely sums up the EB1 "problem", which still seems as insoluble as ever.

    I think it is fair that other readers of the forum should be aware of that to help them weigh the evidence accordingly.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 03-02-2011 at 05:45 PM. Reason: Retained valuable parts. Removed personal discussion.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  12. #762
    I have disagreed with nearly all predictions here. But I have also learnt a lot from what others have to say. I have understood that being critical of analysis is not the same as being critical of the person. I may not like the way things might be said, but I keep in mind that we are all together in this. Thats what keeps me going. After all, we won't be discussing things here if DOS and USCIS were transparent in their dealings.

  13. #763
    I am a new member so pardon for any repetition. I am sure but still writing down if this data has been used in analysis.

    Jan 05 2011 Pending I 485 Inventory.

  14. #764
    Given below is the present position:

    Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

    Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

    CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175 13200 13200
    CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975 22950 22950
    CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025 23050 23050

    The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas. From the above, I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.


    The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:

    Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
    04/01/2011 07/22/2006 05/08/2006
    03/01/2011 07/08/2006 05/08/2006
    02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
    01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
    12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
    11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
    10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006

    With the PD announcements in every month visa bulletin and I-485 Inventory data, one would be able to calculate Visa Demand data position(pending applications), month wise.

    The demand data position for April 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

    Month India China Cum Total
    May-06 1212 0 1212
    Jun-06 1696 0 2908
    Jul-06 1505 565 4978
    Aug-06 1677 693 7348
    Sep-06 1745 773 9866
    Oct-06 1747 732 12345
    Nov-06 1737 667 14749
    Dec-06 1881 770 17400

    Jan-07 1540 654 19594
    Feb-07 1444 615 21653


    Every month USCIS allocates 233* visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 3 months from April 2011 to June 2011.

    *Using 140,00 total EB visas -

    EB2 receives 28.6% of the 140,000 so the 7% limit for EB2-I is (140,000 * 0.286) * 0.07 = 2,803 visas.

    Monthly quota = 2803/12 = 233

    While EB2 China would move to 15th Aug 2006 by June 2011 VB, EB2 India would continue to stagnate at 8-May-2006 due to porting of EB3 to EB2.

    My guesstimate for July 2011 demand data may look like smth as given below:

    Month India China Cum Total
    May-06 1212 0 1212
    Jun-06 1696 0 2908
    Jul-06 1505 0 4413
    Aug-06 1677 558 6648
    Sep-06 1745 773 9166
    Oct-06 1747 732 11645
    Nov-06 1737 667 14049
    Dec-06 1881 770 16700

    Jan-07 1540 654 18894
    Feb-07 1444 615 20953

    With my limited experience of last few years in dealing with USCIS and DOS, I am aware that the spillover calculations start happening in Q4, commencing from July. Further, there are resources constraint in USCIS centers. First 2 months of the Q4 (July and Aug), spillover allocation happen in full swing. Last month of the Quarter, remaining spillover is allocated.

    The spillover whenever happens, it goes to the worst affected country, which is India.

    If there is no spillover happening in July 2011, EB2 India and China would continue to get 233 visas every month for 3 months from July 2011 to Sep 2011. In the normal course, EB2 China would reach 15-Sep-2006.

    After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

    Month India China Cum Total
    May-06 1212 0 1212
    Jun-06 1696 0 2908
    Jul-06 1505 0 4413
    Aug-06 1677 0 6090
    Sep-06 1745 631 8466
    Oct-06 1747 732 10945
    Nov-06 1737 667 13349
    Dec-06 1881 770 16000

    Jan-07 1540 654 18194
    Feb-07 1444 615 20253

    I made assumption from the past trend about the availability of spillover visas. While EB5 spillover about 8K to 9K is certain, EB1 is not certain and EB2ROW to EB2 Ind/China is estimated to be 10K to 12K.

    Then there are also People Who Missed the Boat, which I understand USCIS does not take into account for deciding the Cut Off date.

    There are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data is available and it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments.

    If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
    8K----------------------30-Sep-06
    10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
    12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
    14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
    16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
    18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
    20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
    22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
    24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

    If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.


    Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.
    Last edited by gcwait2007; 03-19-2011 at 03:35 PM. Reason: updated

  15. #765
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    I joined here after seeing link in trackitt.

    ...................................
    ...................................
    ..................................

    Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.
    Valid point, but what ever porting happens until June will show up in inventory so USCIS/DOS calculations for date movement will include those numbers before they set the dates for July VB.

  16. #766
    Don, welcome! Initially I used to use it. But the model is better when you use it with baseline (i.e. 1 oct data). For eB2IC anyway the change doesn't mean much since its only 250 per month.

    Quote Originally Posted by donvar View Post
    I am a new member so pardon for any repetition. I am sure but still writing down if this data has been used in analysis.

    Jan 05 2011 Pending I 485 Inventory.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post

    I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.



    If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.


    Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.
    GCW welcome! good to see you join here too. your post is good and in line with what a lot of people are thinking. I esp agree w your estimate of conversions as well as Ron's observation that PWMB won't matter since they haven't even yet appleid for 485 and hence it will be 6 months before they can get through even if they become elgiible for 485.

    However I am not sure about your date movement aanalysis. I think you are basing it off of demand data which is why your movement is a bit aggressive. You need to use 485 data and then keep some room for conversions and CP.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  17. #767
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    However I am not sure about your date movement aanalysis. I think you are basing it off of demand data which is why your movement is a bit aggressive. You need to use 485 data and then keep some room for conversions and CP.
    Demand Data and I-485 data are same.

    Demand data provides data year wise, while I-485 data provides data month wise, EB category wise and country chargeability wise.

    Demand data is recent and calculated every month, while I-485 data is calculated once in a quarter.

    For example, demand data 17500 for the year ended 2006 tallies with I-485 data summation 17353 for the year 2006 from May 2006 to Dec 2006.

    I would also like to mention that there are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data may be available on quarterly basis, however it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments. . As I am unable to estimate Spillover figures, I provided generic analysis.

    However my hunch says that there would be spillover around 20K+ visas and cut off date would be end of Feb 2007.
    Last edited by gcwait2007; 02-19-2011 at 01:01 PM.

  18. #768
    In this case those two sets match quite close because overall demand has subdued naturally in ROW and because of retrogression in IC.

    But those two sets are two different things in reality. Demand data is "Documentarily Qualified" i.e. everything is complete except visa allocation. 485 inventory includes cases that may haven't done background check and other formalities. So be careful in using them.

    Check out the header of this thread where we have estimated 2011 demand. Of course as you said, that is a bit of guesswork and so we try to reduce uncertainty by relying on solid data such as prior year actuals, 140-485 data, labor data etc. Once you spend some time on thread you will get a better hang of what others are doing.

    Regarding your dates estimation, 20K spillover will hardly take through Nov. based on 1 oct 2010 inventory. So that's why I am a bit surprised why you think it would be end of Feb!

    Appreciate your contribution.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Demand Data and I-485 data are same.

    Demand data provides data year wise, while I-485 data provides data month wise, EB category wise and country chargeability wise.

    Demand data is recent and calculated every month, while I-485 data is calculated once in a quarter.

    For example, demand data 17500 for the year ended 2006 tallies with I-485 data summation 17353 for the year 2006 from May 2006 to Dec 2006.

    I would also like to mention that there are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data may be available on quarterly basis, however it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments. . As I am unable to estimate Spillover figures, I provided generic analysis.

    However my hunch says that there would be spillover around 20K+ visas and cut off date would be end of Feb 2007.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  19. #769
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    But those two sets are two different things in reality. Demand data is "Documentarily Qualified" i.e. everything is complete except visa allocation. 485 inventory includes cases that may haven't done background check and other formalities. So be careful in using them.
    I beg to differ here. Unless an application is documentarily qualified and eligible for issuing visa, it would not be included in the list of pending I-485 Inventory list. There were comments made in the USCIS blogs some time ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Regarding your dates estimation, 20K spillover will hardly take through Nov. based on 1 oct 2010 inventory. So that's why I am a bit surprised why you think it would be end of Feb!
    1-Oct-2010 inventory is old and does not account for regular issuance of visas.

    Spillover will be calculated and allocated to EB2I&C on the basis of position as of 30th June 2011, after regular issuance of visas for the first 9 months.

    After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

    India China Total
    May-06 1110 0 1110
    Jun-06 1696 0 2806
    Jul-06 1505 0 4311
    Aug-06 1677 0 5988
    Sep-06 1745 385 8118
    Oct-06 1747 732 10597
    Nov-06 1737 667 13001
    Dec-06 1881 770 15652

    Jan-07 1540 654 17846
    Feb-07 1444 615 19905

    If there are 20K spillover visas, it would reach end of Feb 2007.

    Assumption is that EB3I to EB2I porting each month is equivalent to monthly issue/ supply of visas. If the porting numbers exceed in the coming months, then the cut off date will reduce accordingly.
    Last edited by gcwait2007; 02-19-2011 at 08:37 PM.

  20. #770
    Were those comments made by USCIS officials? It would be even more useful if those comments were in some official document.

    There is a very simple reason why those two inventories are not same. The CP demand is included in Demand Data whereas in 485 it is not.

    I get your point about spillover. By that definition SOFAD will be 26K which can potentially bring the date in Feb. I agree. Today I am projecting SOFAD at 23K of which 3K goes to conversions and 6K is the regular IC quota. So real spillover is really 17K rather than 20K. So with 3K difference it is possible that instead of Nov the date may move to Jan. I think the missing month is probably explained by 3K conversions.

    p.s. - I would rather use 1 oct inventory since that pegs it at the start of the year so easy to build a model that talks about full year demand. But that's fine. We are close.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    I beg to differ here. Unless an application is documentarily qualified and eligible for issuing visa, it would not be included in the list of pending I-485 Inventory list. There were comments made in the USCIS blogs some time ago.

    1-Oct-2010 inventory is old and does not account for regular issuance of visas.

    Spillover will be calculated and allocated to EB2I&C on the basis of position as of 30th June 2011, after regular issuance of visas for the first 9 months.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  21. #771
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Were those comments made by USCIS officials? It would be even more useful if those comments were in some official document.

    There is a very simple reason why those two inventories are not same. The CP demand is included in Demand Data whereas in 485 it is not.

    I get your point about spillover. By that definition SOFAD will be 26K which can potentially bring the date in Feb. I agree. Today I am projecting SOFAD at 23K of which 3K goes to conversions and 6K is the regular IC quota. So real spillover is really 17K rather than 20K. So with 3K difference it is possible that instead of Nov the date may move to Jan. I think the missing month is probably explained by 3K conversions.

    p.s. - I would rather use 1 oct inventory since that pegs it at the start of the year so easy to build a model that talks about full year demand. But that's fine. We are close.
    Visa demand bulletin clearly states that it is being used for calculating the cut-off dates. Please go thru the opening paragraph of the demand data.

    Monthly Determination of Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates
    The chart below shows the estimated total number of visas available for each employment preference
    category and country for fiscal year 2011.
    *The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be reduced by 1,000. A total of
    300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the E5 category.
    Each month, the Visa Office subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the
    INA into monthly allotments based on totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants reported at
    consular posts and CIS Offices, grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference category, and priority date. If
    there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the
    category is considered "Current." For example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only
    demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current”. Whenever the total of documentarily qualified
    applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the
    category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date
    is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa
    number. For example: If the monthly target is 3,000 and there is demand for 8,000 applicants, then it would be
    necessary to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off
    would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant.
    Last edited by gcwait2007; 02-20-2011 at 02:41 PM.

  22. #772
    To gcwait2007 - nice analysis

    a) First of all as Q mentioned that how SOFAD is calculated here is little different than you are calculating. But at end of the day, you both are talking about same thing.

    Here to calculate SOFAD, we are taking into account IC Demand based on I-485 inventory + Visa numbers numbers used by EB3-EB2 porting which should be equal to Spillover received after June 30th 2011 + visa allocation to EB2-IC (5600). (Please correct me if I am wrong)

    So if we think PD will reach 1 Jan 2007, we will need SOFAD = 20130 (to reach PD 1 Jan 2007) + 3000 (Porting based on current demand data) = Spillover received after June 30, 2011 + 5600.

    Spillover required after June 30, 2011 = 20130 + 3000 -5600 = 17,530, which matches closely with what you are saying in your Mar 2011 calculation and what Q mentioned in his last post.

    b) You are absolutely right that USCIS/DOL would use demand data to calculate cut-off dates. It makes sense to use demand data as long as you can account for number of visas that are used from 5,600 till date, CP cases added each month and EB3-EB2 porting happening every month. USCIS is aware of this but unfortunately we are not.

    I do not believe that USCIS religiously use 233 visa numbers to calculate demand data every month for retrogressed countries like India and China; because it is impossible to guesstimate EB3-EB2 upgrades and CP cases. This could be inferred from demand data that would move up and down exactly by 25 each month for India, which is little difficult for me to digest. So there is lot of rounding and guesstimates that goes into this. USCIS would try to keep good buffer so to avoid advancement and retrogression for EB2-I every month. They can always use these visas later towards last quarter when they have more clear picture and real numbers. So I would not bank on Demand Data until June 2011 for my calculation. I-485 inventory is good place to continue our prediction until June 30, 2011. By the time we will reach June 30, 2011, we would also have an updated I-485 inventory list.


    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Visa demand bulletin clearly states that it is being used for calculating the cut-off dates. Please go thru the opening paragraph of the demand data.


    My understanding from Ron's comments is that DoS/ Charles Oppenheim uses demand data for deciding cut-off date than using I-485 inventory data. Ron mentioned that establishment of a cutoff date is an art, not a science. More than anything else, he thinks that they use a sense of how they feel about a particular category if it is a very close call. For example, if the category is trending toward faster forward movement, then they would likely go with the later date. If it is moving slowly, they would likely go with the earlier date.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    The demand data position for March 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

    Month India China Cum Total
    May-06 1110 0 1110
    Jun-06 1696 0 2806
    Jul-06 1505 620 4931
    Aug-06 1677 693 7301
    Sep-06 1745 773 9819
    Oct-06 1747 732 12298
    Nov-06 1737 667 14702
    Dec-06 1881 770 17353
    Last edited by shaumack; 02-20-2011 at 03:42 PM.

  23. #773
    There is a difference in setting a priority date based on demand data and predicting full year spillover and how much GC backlog will be cleared. DoS is not concerned with the latter. So its ok for them to use demand data.

    However, for us using demand data to do latter would be fundamentally wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Visa demand bulletin clearly states that it is being used for calculating the cut-off dates. Please go thru the opening paragraph of the demand data.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 02-21-2011 at 11:27 AM. Reason: clarified
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  24. #774

    I-140 Trend

    I-140 Trend,

    Date Pending RFE Completions Receipts
    Oct09 14226 2549 6149 4566
    Nov09 13645 2383 5658 3901
    Dec09 12648 2329 5604 4337
    Jan10 12451 1809 6101 4108
    Feb10 11196 1999 5584 4969
    Mar10 11697 2030 7343 7526
    Apr10 13495 2177 7482 7762
    May10 14676 1829 6067 7795
    Jun10 17712 1487 6310 8699
    Jul10 18786 1639 5960 7130
    Aug10 20831 1742 6237 8766
    Sep10 24002 1561 5251 7721

    Oct10 26582 1219 5497 7442
    Nov10 28176 1510 5386 7839
    Dec10 28607 1724 5833 5161

  25. #775
    Thanks O!

    Nov10 28176 1510 5386 7839
    Dec10 28607 1724 5833 5161

    Whoa! Big drop in receipts! We will see if it sticks. How come pending numbers did not decrease?

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