EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[cool_mj007]

@Nishant2200 some of it was due to fluctuating demand but a big part of those movements was also due to lack of coordination between different agencies and offices. They couldn't keep track of how many visas they had uses/left for the year. Systems are much better now so hopefully we will avoid such wild swings.

Trivia.

December 2004 VB:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_1343.html

All was C, and in this one, they warned that EB3 is seeing very heavy demand and we may need to retrogress and they did in January 2005.

It almost feels surreal to see everything current in December 2004.

and then October 2005
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_2631.html

EB2 I/C became retrogressed. It's interesting, even EB1 I/C is retrogressed in this bulletin.

It was Current in September 2005 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_2616.html

[nishant2200]

@Nishant2200 some of it was due to fluctuating demand but a big part of those movements was also due to lack of coordination between different agencies and offices. They couldn't keep track of how many visas they had uses/left for the year. Systems are much better now so hopefully we will avoid such wild swings.

cool mj, have to say, urs is my favorite photo icon, more than sogaddu

[qblogfan]

Yes, most of the Chinese F1 student prefer to go to Phd program. In the Chinese culture, it is a great honor to have a Phd degree. No matter whether the Phd is in a useful field or not, they just want to have this Phd title.

Agreed China has lot of students coming on F1. However unlike their Indian counterparts who join workforce on H1, they prefer to stay in academics by pursuing PhD, Post doc etc.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus ,
I have a question. Been on h1b and currently in my 5th yr .

The first three years of h1b , in 2009 bad recession and I took a job for a few months in Canada while having an inderstanding with my then employer that he would keep my h1b open . one weekend when I drove in to USA my employer told me that he accidentally informed uscis that i'm no longer employed . It seems he did it in May of 2008 and told me first time August, knowing that I immediately applied for H4 since spouse is on h1b with approved 140 . I confronted my employer and he gave me a letter stating that I worked till Aug of 2009. I believe for over 2 months I was technically out of status. Luckily I got h4 approved in nov and the following month I also got a job and new employer coverted me from h4 to h1 successfully. Worked for a year and switched job again and now the new employer transferred h1B .

What is giving me sleepless nights is , my spouse is close to file her I 485 and I along with her will be filing I 485 . As a dependent , I'm worried if they will catch those 2.5 months I was not in status since I applied h4 later . Dont have any pay stubs except the letter given my employer. Please advise .

[soggadu]

Trivia.

December 2004 VB:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_1343.html

All was C, and in this one, they warned that EB3 is seeing very heavy demand and we may need to retrogress and they did in January 2005.

It almost feels surreal to see everything current in December 2004.

and then October 2005
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_2631.html

EB2 I/C became retrogressed. It's interesting, even EB1 I/C is retrogressed in this bulletin.

It was Current in September 2005 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_2616.html

so r u saying we might get current keeping the past in mind? Is there any conclusion to be made from the bulletins or just for information? just wondering....

[soggadu]

cool mj, have to say, urs is my favorite photo icon, more than sogaddu

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

[Monica12]

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

LOL! Oh no...soggadu, you are losing fans.
Nishant, Soggadu probably will have nightmares today

[qesehmk]

EB2 ... i think your situation is mildly serious. I wouldn't lose sleep over it. But I would recommend having a good lawyer represent you.

It seems even if you accrued unlawful presence it was not of your doing. So USCIS wouldn't look at it unfavorably. They already gave you a second H1 or extension of first H1 ... right? So probably you will be ok.

I am concerned about the letter from employer though since howsoever small its inaccurate at best and fradulent at worst. And depending on how things proceed and what kind of USCIS officer you are going to meet, that thing could slip through or come and bite you in rear.

So best to come straight and lay things out as honest as possible. I would think that you would be ok. But i think its worth spending some money and having a lawyer represent you in this case - given how much time effort and money you and your wife have invested thus far ..

Gurus ,
I have a question. Been on h1b and currently in my 5th yr .

The first three years of h1b , in 2009 bad recession and I took a job for a few months in Canada while having an inderstanding with my then employer that he would keep my h1b open . one weekend when I drove in to USA my employer told me that he accidentally informed uscis that i'm no longer employed . It seems he did it in May of 2008 and told me first time August, knowing that I immediately applied for H4 since spouse is on h1b with approved 140 . I confronted my employer and he gave me a letter stating that I worked till Aug of 2009. I believe for over 2 months I was technically out of status. Luckily I got h4 approved in nov and the following month I also got a job and new employer coverted me from h4 to h1 successfully. Worked for a year and switched job again and now the new employer transferred h1B .

What is giving me sleepless nights is , my spouse is close to file her I 485 and I along with her will be filing I 485 . As a dependent , I'm worried if they will catch those 2.5 months I was not in status since I applied h4 later . Dont have any pay stubs except the letter given my employer. Please advise .

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

soggadu I will "patao" the princess. Go ahead and change your avatar to upend cool mj!

[nishant2200]

so r u saying we might get current keeping the past in mind? Is there any conclusion to be made from the bulletins or just for information? just wondering....

No no man, I was just intrigued that not more than like 6 years back, all this used to be current.

[srd4gc]

in the fear that i would not find my I-20, i have sent an email to the office of international affairs at my univ...didn't get any response yet but luckily after an hour or so of digging up i found my I-20...a little bit of relief (today my attorney gave me a list of docs needed for i485 and it includes I-20)...

I managed to find all I20s from my last school. Basically they had archived my entire application in off-campus location. It was nostalgic to go to school and look at all my papers/checks/recs from professors etc I think drive down the memory lane is worth it

[cool_mj007]

@Soggadu, don't worry your avatar is still my favorite

nahiiiiinnnnnn...........vuiiiiii maaaaaa.......

[mysati]

Number of H1B issued is always higher than the H1B cap since non-profits like Universities are exempt from the cap and they are not counted in the 65K+20K limit. Although I do agree with you that the numbers may include renewals.

BTW the current year is proving really slow for H1B. Only 32K of 65K regular cap and 16K of 20K Masters cap has been consumed until 09/09/2011. Could it be that for the first time in forever we might not fill the H1B quota this year??

Sorry, I overlooked that fact and thanks for clarifying.

[gchopeful123]

Since the Nov bulletin is coming up, what are your opinions on further movement? Initially, my thoughts were that the VO will not move dates further (at least within next bulletin) as they may need some more time to gauge actual demand related to the Oct 2011 bulletin. This is because it will be only 8/10 days into Oct when the Nov bulletin comes out. But after hearing the news that they have run out of visa numbers for 2011, I am now thinking that there may be good chance of further movement in the Nov bulletin.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

[rdsingh79]

Even I am thinking how will DOS decide on cut off dates for Nov since they will have ~8 days in Oct to look at new EB2IC I-485 filed based on movement in Oct VB. Probably DOS is not clueless about expected new demand, but are testing the waters. I am guessing (hoping) that they will move atleast 3 months in Nov.

Since the Nov bulletin is coming up, what are your opinions on further movement? Initially, my thoughts were that the VO will not move dates further (at least within next bulletin) as they may need some more time to gauge actual demand related to the Oct 2011 bulletin. This is because it will be only 8/10 days into Oct when the Nov bulletin comes out. But after hearing the news that they have run out of visa numbers for 2011, I am now thinking that there may be good chance of further movement in the Nov bulletin.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

[qesehmk]

Sure. Will certainly check around end of first week of oct.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

[rdsingh79]

Its been a while since I looked at my I-120s/OPT EADs. This weekend's mission is to find them!!

in the fear that i would not find my I-20, i have sent an email to the office of international affairs at my univ...didn't get any response yet but luckily after an hour or so of digging up i found my I-20...a little bit of relief (today my attorney gave me a list of docs needed for i485 and it includes I-20)...

[Monica12]

Since the Nov bulletin is coming up, what are your opinions on further movement? Initially, my thoughts were that the VO will not move dates further (at least within next bulletin) as they may need some more time to gauge actual demand related to the Oct 2011 bulletin. This is because it will be only 8/10 days into Oct when the Nov bulletin comes out. But after hearing the news that they have run out of visa numbers for 2011, I am now thinking that there may be good chance of further movement in the Nov bulletin.

Q,
We had kind off forgotten about your source after the disappointing Aug and Sep bulletins. Would it be possible to invoke that channel again?

I think anything can happen at this point. They might stop or move by another 3 months or so. I really hope they donot retrogress the dates, as that would probably mean little-no movement in the coming months
Q, It would be great if " Cali baba" can give us some info

[imdeng]

You still need an H1B for working in academia. One might get off H1B quickly through EB1 in case of well published academic - but the path still goes through H1B - right?

Agreed China has lot of students coming on F1. However unlike their Indian counterparts who join workforce on H1, they prefer to stay in academics by pursuing PhD, Post doc etc.

[qblogfan]

I think the VB will move ahead in the next VB and Dec VB.

Oct.VB can't generate too much demand.

I think anything can happen at this point. They might stop or move by another 3 months or so. I really hope they donot retrogress the dates, as that would probably mean little-no movement in the coming months
Q, It would be great if " Cali baba" can give us some info

[imdeng]

Q - I had the impression that we were going to shift to a new thread for the new FY. This thread has become too unwieldy I guess. You can reserve say the first 10 posts for you to edit updates and summary throughout the year and we can all start afresh.

[10102007]

Being a perennial pessimist, even I went ahead and made an appointment with a civil surgeon to get the vaccinations. Dates will move, hopefully

[qesehmk]

Yes we will - On Oct 1st. And then we will archive this thread.

Q - I had the impression that we were going to shift to a new thread for the new FY. This thread has become too unwieldy I guess. You can reserve say the first 10 posts for you to edit updates and summary throughout the year and we can all start afresh.

so what happens if number of people sign it? Just want to understand how this signing program is going help any one..

What other alternative you have in mind that will help people? This is zero cost, low time investment option that is optional for those who want to do something.

[visagcinfo]

I guess new thread for 2012 will be opened on 10/01.

[iamdeb]

You are correct about only path to work is H1. However most Chinese students continue to be on F1 for higher studies and once they enter the PhD program then the wait can be 4,5,6,7 years (depends on the prof) and they needn't apply for H1.

[qblogfan]

Phd takes 5 years or more, plus several years of postdoc. It will be more than one decade.

One thing I noticed is that there are thousands of Chinese students studying Biology, Chemistry and Physics, but I don't see many Indian students study these subjects. Most of my Indian friends are studying computer science and other engineering subjects. Usually it's difficult for the Chinese students to find a job after getting degrees in these subjects such as Biology, Chemistry and Physics. The only opitions for them are post doc positions or returning home.

You are correct about only path to work is H1. However most Chinese students continue to be on F1 for higher studies and once they enter the PhD program then the wait can be 4,5,6,7 years (depends on the prof) and they needn't apply for H1.