EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

LoL!! We need to have a virtual beer fest to bring clarity to this pain point !!

Q,

So true!

Suffice to say that the few posts I have been able to make cost me big time!!

No doubt my hearing will recover eventually.

[nishant2200]

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

[veni001]

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

Nishant,
Assuming USCIS/DOS are thinking in the right direction, this is the reason for early EB2IC movement!

[RMS_V13]

Hi all,

Sept 2010 Visa Bulletin reads May 2006. Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin reads Aug 2007, over a year of movement. Okay so I went back a few pages and took a look at the numbers. Those were times when Economy was not down. With the slowing down of economy etc, why is it impossible for the dates to reach Aug 2008 by Sept 2012?

Thanks much!
My PD is Aug 2008 ; country of Chargebility India ; Category EB2

[veni001]

Hi all,

Sept 2010 Visa Bulletin reads May 2006. Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin reads Aug 2007, over a year of movement. Okay so I went back a few pages and took a look at the numbers. Those were times when Economy was not down. With the slowing down of economy etc, why is it impossible for the dates to reach Aug 2008 by Sept 2012?

Thanks much!
My PD is Aug 2008 ; country of Chargebility India ; Category EB2

RMS_V13,
Economy was great in 2007 and early 2008.

Please check I+C Monthly PERM approvals in 2007 and 2008(or FY-CY matrix), to find answer to your question.

[veni001]

Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

Trident,
I agree with Monica's comments, even though they process FIFO basis, we are expecting only few thousand EB2IC filers based on OCT VB movement. No need to rush but make sure your lawyer has everything in the package before sending to USCIS.

[RMS_V13]

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

[RMS_V13]

Anyone please?

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

[Kanmani]

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

RMS,

EB1 has no Perm .

The difficulty here is because EB2 IC movement is Spill over dependent .

[qesehmk]

RMS this question is constantly addressed on this forum and you need to self-help by going through this thread as well as FACTS and DATA section.

Simply speaking ... the reason we see end of 2007 beginning of 2008 as the date where the visas will be cleared because that is where the demand supply intersect (with a large area of uncertainty - almost 6 months in my mind)

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

[veni001]

Anyone please?

RMS_V13,

As Q suggested if you do little research on this forum you will find all the answers you are looking for!

In your calculations you are not counting EB1 & EB2 ROW (both are current) demand for the FY.

You can find 485 statistics under FACTS AND DATA Section.

[RMS_V13]

Kanmani,
Thanks for the response.
Kinda understand how it works now
Best,
-R

RMS,

EB1 has no Perm .

The difficulty here is because EB2 IC movement is Spill over dependent .

[RMS_V13]

Thanks Q,
I did go through the link that Veni gave. That was useful. However, it is practically impossible going through this thread, that is so long. For regular users, it may be a pain to repeatedly answer the same question, but this is probably the 1st time I am even paying attention to the numbers and there may be several people like me.
Anyhoo, I will try to go through this thread when time permits.
-R

RMS this question is constantly addressed on this forum and you need to self-help by going through this thread as well as FACTS and DATA section.

Simply speaking ... the reason we see end of 2007 beginning of 2008 as the date where the visas will be cleared because that is where the demand supply intersect (with a large area of uncertainty - almost 6 months in my mind)

[RMS_V13]

Thank you! Kinda get it now..But still don't you think you are being very conservative in predicting forward movement?

RMS_V13,

As Q suggested if you do little research on this forum you will find all the answers you are looking for!

In your calculations you are not counting EB1 & EB2 ROW (both are current) demand for the FY.

You can find 485 statistics under FACTS AND DATA Section.

[nishant2200]

Thank you! Kinda get it now..But still don't you think you are being very conservative in predicting forward movement?

As of now, it's really very early. Q thinks the range is quite large, Oct 2007 to March 2008. The two most simple but complex to compute variables here are what will be the actual demand generated for EB2I/C, and what will be the actual supply generated for SO to these categories.

The demand can be generated upto a huge number, it's just a function of distance of date movement. There is no dearth of people waiting. We can estimate that moving date to Dec 2007 can for example, generate 22k documentarily qualified demand for EB2I/C. But this is just an estimate based on assumptions like out of the PERMs, 60% are EB2, 80% led to 140, and 485 approval rate is 85%, the dependent factor is 2.05, and so on. What will be exact, no one can know, until actual dates are moved.

Similarly, for SO, it totally depends on how much leftover carcass we get from EB1, EB2ROW, and EB5. A surge has been noticed in the 140 approval trend / backlog reduction effort, as well as USCIS is having a big push on encouraging and making life easier for EB5. A proof of this surge was the dates stalling in last VB of last FY. So the idea is this year we may get less SO than last year. The projection of SO may be done by various agencies, in their own words, from past trends (last two years, 30k SO approximate), from projection of current trends (Q1, Q2...), consular processing demand and so on.

So basically both supply and demand are highly dynamic.

I personally cannot call any prediction conservative or optimistic right now. What I can call it is lower bound and upper bound.

The lower bound for SO is 18k, and upper bound is 30k. I think DOS would like to have an inventory of 30k at least documentarily qualified by beginning of Q4 FY 2012. They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k. They need 18k more, if we assume roughly 2.5k per month, that is around 7 months plus 15th august 2007, which is 15th March 2008. To get to here, they might move 7 months in next two VBs total, 3 months and 4 months, or 3 months and 3 months. Some like bieber believe, they will move just one month next VB, and then do a BTM for like say 6 months.

Now, there is also a big difference in being able to apply vs getting actual GC. Having a 30k inventory is just that, it's not guaranteeing actual GC. That depends on actual SO.

Of course, we are just human and can fall flat on our faces, like everyone did with the surprise Oct VB.

[RMS_V13]

Nishant,
That was very helpful.
How do you get month wise perm certification to estimate the demand?

They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k.

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
That was very helpful.
How do you get month wise perm certification to estimate the demand?

Veni n Spec have compiled lots of data in facts and data section of this blog. Spec has very cleverly also used iCert (http://icert.doleta.gov/) data to estimate EB2 EB3 splits.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)

The original source: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

[Kanmani]

Nishant

Adding some from my assumptions ,

2008 EB2China total will be less than 2007 total.
The dependent factor 2.05 is not working with China calculations ( Gurus might object )
There is a 3 months lag in Perm PWD probably a good sign currently

[nishant2200]

Excellent points K.

Can u enlighten us on ur thoughts about dependent factor for C.

Nishant

Adding some from my assumptions ,

2008 EB2China total will be less than 2007 total.
The dependent factor 2.05 is not working with China calculations ( Gurus might object )
There is a 3 months lag in Perm PWD probably a good sign currently

[Kanmani]

Nishant

For China the dependent factor in my opinion is 2.5

For 2006
P= 7054
PX80% = 5643
5643X60% = 3386

3386X2.5 = 8465 (approximate EB2 China Total )

This works with 2007
and China porting is lesser than India


For India , in my opinion the hindering factor in the derivation of most appropriate formula is duplication of perm within the couples
Moreover Eb2 : Eb3 ratio for India is constantly changing year to year

[nishant2200]

Nishant

For China the dependent factor in my opinion is 2.5

For 2006
P= 7054
PX80% = 5643
5643X60% = 3386

3386X2.5 = 8465 (approximate EB2 China Total )

This works even with 2007 .

For India , in my opinion the hindering factor in the derivation of most appropriate formula is duplication of perm within the couples

Very astute observation, I am discovering this these days and am amazed at the quantum of this. Let's hope that these kind of unknowns affect us positively, in terms of reducing the actual incoming 485 applications when dates move. A bit of bad of this is that many times, this means porting, one spouse's EB2 taking advantage of the EB3 date of the other spouse.

Let me try to find DHS statistics if they can enlighten us on dependents for C.

[Spectator]

A bit of bad of this is that many times, this means porting, one spouse's EB2 taking advantage of the EB3 date of the other spouse.

Let me try to find DHS statistics if they can enlighten us on dependents for C.

nishant,

That is not allowed or possible. The Primary can take advantage of the spouse's Country of Chargeability, if it is advantageous, but PDs are not transferable between spouses. The EB2 could only use their own earlier established PD, if they have one.

Unfortunately, as far as I am aware, the DHS figures do not drill down further than the overall EB Category, so it isn't possible to extract information on individual Countries. The DOS figures, which do, don't provide any breakdown about dependent usage.

[Spectator]

I saw this link on Trackitt to the actual communication by the Visa Office to USCIS http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf

United States Department of State

Visa Services

Washington, D.C. 20520

URGENT URGENT URGENT

September 15, 2011

TO: CIS Section 245 ADJUDICATIONS

FROM: Immigrant Visa Control

SUBJECT: Authorizations for ALL Employment preference Cases

Effective immediately it has been necessary to stop
authorizations in response to requests for ALL Employment
preference cases for the remainder of FY-2011. This action has
been necessary because the FY-2011 Employment annual limit has
now been reached. Numbers will once again be available for all
Employment categories beginning October 1, 2011 under their
FY2012 annual numerical limitation.

The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,
in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and
subsequent processing. All USCIS Offices may continue to process
Employment preference cases and submit them in the normal
manner. Such cases will be held in the Visa Office's "Pending
Demand" file.

On October 3, 2011, authorizations will be made covering all
eligible cases which had been entered into the Pending Demand
from September 15, 2011 through September 30, 2011 and are
within the applicable October cut-off date.

Please be sure that this information is passed to all personnel
involved in the process of obtaining visa authorizations from
the Visa Office for Section 245 cases.

URGENT URGENT URGENT

It is always good to see the actual communication, rather than an interpretation of it by a third party.

[Kanmani]

Thank you Spec

So it is clearly evident that the october bulletin EB2IC PD advance is purely for building pipeline but not for 2011 leftovers .

[bangaru]

"The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and subsequent processing" - This scares me to shit! The demand data for next bulletin would make for an interesting read.

I hope this doesn't become one of those situations - "Look we found 20000 more apps in this box".