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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #7301
    Quote Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07 View Post
    Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
    I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.
    I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon

  2. #7302
    ssvp, 11+ years? Wow that is a very long time to be away from family and friends. When you go, you will be shocked to see the changes(at least in the metros) India went through in a decade.

  3. #7303
    Quote Originally Posted by gcoracle View Post
    ssvp, 11+ years? Wow that is a very long time to be away from family and friends. When you go, you will be shocked to see the changes(at least in the metros) India went through in a decade.
    Yeah, that is what i heard. Heard my city(Chandigarh) has gone from City Beautiful to City of Traffic Jams. Looking forward to the day i can end my "vanvas".

  4. #7304
    Yoda
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    One more Q guys, I got a copy of the I-140 approval notice from the employer. As shared earlier the A number and the PD is Sep, 30, 2010. I could not find this in the FLCDataCenter. Could it be that the FLCData Center is not upto date?

  5. #7305
    As per AILA " DOS notifies USCIS of exhaustion of employment based visa numbers FY 2011"

    Can't open the memorandum dated 09/15/2011

  6. #7306
    Yoda
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    in iindia as well as in USA ... i have affidavits on plane paper. No stamp paper needed (confirmed with our company immigration specialist). Yes you can go to any notary... amscot/ups etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpt112107 View Post
    Good but on what paper here? I mean in India we do it on some twenty rupees stamp paper. Can we go to any notary in UPS store to do this?

  7. #7307
    Quote Originally Posted by Chilli19 View Post
    Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

    http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ctober-vb.html
    Excellent, thanks for sharing.

  8. #7308
    Thanks for sharing the format.. One last question, for your parents, did you put your US address or their India address in the address field ?

    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    in iindia as well as in USA ... i have affidavits on plane paper. No stamp paper needed (confirmed with our company immigration specialist). Yes you can go to any notary... amscot/ups etc.

  9. #7309
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    As per AILA " DOS notifies USCIS of exhaustion of employment based visa numbers FY 2011"

    Can't open the memorandum dated 09/15/2011
    Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

    So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 09-15-2011 at 10:29 AM.

  10. #7310
    Pandit Eb2_Dec07's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ssvp22 View Post
    I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon
    Sorry to know you have been on such a long wait. I can understand what you might be going through. In the past few years besides home country, I've missed out on so many great opportunities because of immigration status reqs. Besides anything else , what I yearn for now is the freedom to make decisions , choice and travel .

  11. #7311
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

    So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.
    Amen to that ! Can't wait for October to start and see approvals roll in...

  12. #7312
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Amen to that ! Can't wait for October to start and see approvals roll in...
    Not too far, only two more weeks!

  13. #7313
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

    So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.
    Nishant that does not appear to be the case. If we look at Trackitt approval trend for Aug and Sep there have been significantly higher approvals for EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 cases. So it appears that the numbers were actually allocated towards these cases. In October depending on the allocation whether its 250/750 or more EB2 I/C might see some random approvals in the range that is current. The date progression is purely for pipeline buildup. DOS / USCIS cannot allocate cap numbers to cases that are not current. Even in the July fiasco some people got their GC's much later when the dates were retrogressed but the cap numbers were allocated when their dates were current, this scenario is reverse of that. Let’s hope that the new inventory shows a lower count for EB2 ROW and EB1.

  14. #7314
    Thank you

    So this theory can go in trash then.

    Back to where we were!

    But at least lot of E1, E2Row approved means less backlog next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Nishant that does not appear to be the case. If we look at Trackitt approval trend for Aug and Sep there have been significantly higher approvals for EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 cases. So it appears that the numbers were actually allocated towards these cases. In October depending on the allocation whether its 250/750 or more EB2 I/C might see some random approvals in the range that is current. The date progression is purely for pipeline buildup. DOS / USCIS cannot allocate cap numbers to cases that are not current. Even in the July fiasco some people got their GC's much later when the dates were retrogressed but the cap numbers were allocated when their dates were current, this scenario is reverse of that. Let’s hope that the new inventory shows a lower count for EB2 ROW and EB1.

  15. #7315
    Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

    So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

    p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  16. #7316

    FY 2011 All Employment-Based Numbers exhausted

    Unavailability of All Employment-Based Numbers through October 1, 2011
    Thursday, September 15th, 2011

    Today, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Immigrant Visa Control Office issued a memorandum notifying United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) of the exhaustion of all employment-based visa numbers for Fiscal Year (FY) 2011. Accordingly, please note, empolyment-based applications for adjustment of status in the U.S. and immigrant visa applications abroad will not be accepted and will not be approved until October 1, 2011, due to the unavailability of FY 2011 immigrant visas numbers.

    http://www.immigrationsolutions.com/...october-1-2011

  17. #7317
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC. So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.
    p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.
    So does this mean that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct Bulletin COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?

    They did not announce to the the world. These immigration sites got news from internal sources from the memo to USCIS.
    Last edited by donvar; 09-15-2011 at 11:17 AM.

  18. #7318
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

    So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

    p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.
    This is indeed strange.. Does anyone recollect if they ever made this type of announcement in the past too?

  19. #7319
    The visas exhaust every year. Is this usual for DoS to communicate this to USCIS every year.
    Why didn't we see this kind of thing leak in prior years? the backlog was as acute last year as it is this year.

    When they provide certain information to their sources they know exactly that this is going to the world. Enough said .. I rest my conspiracy theory.

    Quote Originally Posted by donvar View Post
    So what does this mean? That new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( new pd) will be assigned from 2012 quota?

    They did not announce to the the world. These immigration sites have got news from internal source from the memo to USCIS.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #7320
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    The visas exhaust every year. Is this usual for DoS to communicate this to USCIS every year.
    Why didn't we see this kind of thing leak in prior years? the backlog was as acute last year as it is this year.
    I googled and found out they did it in 2010 as well.

    So is it confirmed now that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct 2011 COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?
    As the new COD approvals was suppose to start from Oct 1.
    Please enlighten.
    Last edited by donvar; 09-15-2011 at 11:27 AM.

  21. #7321
    Yoda
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    india address...

    Quote Originally Posted by evoori View Post
    Thanks for sharing the format.. One last question, for your parents, did you put your US address or their India address in the address field ?

  22. #7322
    Thanks Don. I think what you say is highly probable. I am still puzzled with the early but small movement. This movement actually didn't give them any new 485 other than PWMB which probably will be 2K max in the time horizon they are looking at. So another movement in November is highly likely in my opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by donvar View Post
    I googled and found out they did it in 2010 as well.

    So is it confirmed now that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct 2011 COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?
    As the new COD approvals was suppose to start from Oct 1.
    Please enlighten.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  23. #7323
    Source : http://www.immigration-law.com/

    " FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011

    AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
    What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS. "

  24. #7324
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    The following news appeared in Oh law firm today:

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011

    AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
    What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    If this is true (not sure, how reliable this lawyer is), then any new I485 approvals from 1st Oct will be from 2012 quota. So, this makes the 3 month forward movement even more surprising, though it's a pleasant surprise to many of us. From CO's visa bulletin notes, there was an indication that he is trying to build up a buffer. So, instead of a large BTM, we have might have forward movement in bursts before there is any probable retrogression. I am in agreement with Q's feedback on possibility of further movement in Nov bulletin as the 3 month movement in Oct will only create 2K additional PWMB cases. Maybe, CO is trying to emulate the FB trend from last year, but this is just a will guess from my side.

  25. #7325
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    The following news appeared in Oh law firm today:

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011

    AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
    What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    If this is true (not sure, how reliable this lawyer is), then any new I485 approvals from 1st Oct will be from 2012 quota. So, this makes the 3 month forward movement even more surprising, though it's a pleasant surprise to many of us. From CO's visa bulletin notes, there was an indication that he is trying to build up a buffer. So, instead of a large BTM, we have might have forward movement in bursts before there is any probable retrogression. I am in agreement with Q's feedback on possibility of further movement in Nov bulletin as the 3 month movement in Oct will only create 2K additional PWMB cases. Maybe, CO is trying to emulate the FB trend from last year, but this is just a will guess from my side.
    Yes, I completely agree...future VBs should show more movement. It just doesn't make sense that they want to build demand ( as stated in Oct VB) when they will get only 2-2.5 K new cases in Oct. That no. is just not enough to build additional pipeline...

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