EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[SG2020]

Call up USCIS and ask them what's going on. Ask for a supervisor if the rep isn't able to give you a good answer. If all else fails, raise a Service request for USCIS error. If the appointment is for some time in September make sure to get it done asap so you may still have a chance to get approval.

Originally Posted by SG2020 View Post
Hi all -

Wanted to share my situation with this group and hopefully get some insights as I am not sure what to make of it all.

High level timeline:
Nov 2020: EB2 >> EB3 downgrade
Mid 2021: I-140 approved through PP.
Sep 2021: Biometrics for me and my wife in Sep 2021. Her online case history mentions that 'fingerprints were taken' but mine doesn't.
April 2022: EAD/AP received as a result of a lawsuit I joined.
April 2022: Application transferred to NBC and then to FO/Orlando.
May 2022: RFE received for medicals, birth certificate, marriage, and lawful presence. RFE response delivered on July 22.
Aug 1, 2022: Online update to I-131 to show "fingerprints relating to your Form I-131, Application for Travel Document, Receipt Number SRC2190******, have been applied to your case."

Today, I received another biometrics appointment! My appointment in 2021 was also for Code 3. Also, the appointment letter came from NBC/ Lee?s Summit, MO but the notice shows Service Center as TSC.

Any thoughts on what could be going on?

Well, I think I have now seen it all.

I went for my second biometrics last week. I asked them why I was asked to do biometrics again and the supervisor at the site couldn't find any record of my biometrics taken in September 2021! I had the stamped documents - so they tried very hard to figure out what happened but couldn't come up with an explanation.

When I had done the biometrics in 2021 September, the person doing it was Asian (this is in Oakland, CA). I couldn't understand a single word she was saying and she was getting frustrated that I was unable to understand her directions. She was not able to get good prints for 3 fingers. She even shouted at me at one point. Anyway, my wife's biometrics went fine and we came home. Now I believe that she never entered my biometrics in the system! There is just no other explanation. I am super pissed. This time, the supervisor confirmed my biometrics were received and my status updated by the time I got home. Let's see if the background check happens quickly and if my application can be processed this month or in October. My PD is May 2011 and I had downgraded to EB3 in Nov 2020. Didn't interfile back to EB2 based on Fragomen's advice. I have already replied to the medical/birth/marriage RFE in July. Let's see how long it takes now that my biometrics are finally there after a year!

Ugh.

[Sebiswaiting]

Nov 2022 VB came out. No change on dates from last month. USCIS confirmed that ROW demand is so high that they may need to establish FAD for ROW. This will result in zero horizontal spillover, and extremely limited vertical spillover (if any) to India backlog.

Below text is from Nov VB.

"Increased demand in the Employment Second category may necessitate the establishment of a worldwide final action date in the coming months to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the Fiscal Year 2023 annual limit. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly."

What I meant is that EB1 consumed higher than usual and got used up in Sept and I am not expecting any vertical spillover this year.

As you told, EB1 consumed close to 60k (based on 20k spillover that you mentioned).
This year with 200k EB1 gets close to 60k.
So EB1 in 2023 fiscal may consume what is available.
You are also right that there was EB1 backlog. But I can't say if the backlog was cleared this year or last year. If the bulk of backlog was cleared last year, then most of 60k eb1 are new demand and potentially new normal.
Usual EB1 quota is 40k, so usual EB1 demand was higher than 40k pre covid, and as per some of the lawyers demand for EB1 has increased since.
Plus they consumed all EB1 by Sept 7, so application for the last 3 weeks will add to the count.

Having said that, I do wish EB2 gets more...my PD is 3rd week of Dec 2014, and I do hope for any spillover.

[vsivarama]

Nov 2022 VB came out. No change on dates from last month. USCIS confirmed that ROW demand is so high that they may need to establish FAD for ROW. This will result in zero horizontal spillover, and extremely limited vertical spillover (if any) to India backlog.

Below text is from Nov VB.

"Increased demand in the Employment Second category may necessitate the establishment of a worldwide final action date in the coming months to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the Fiscal Year 2023 annual limit. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly."

Yes, I agree the news appears bleak. One thing that USCIS does a very poor job at is trend analysis, so there is always hope. Let's see if they release the numbers related to ROW which would give us a more clearer picture. With recession looming in 2023 the situation can change pretty quick. At this time, I would say do not have any positive or negative hopes as far as the movement is concerned as the situation is still very fluid. Do not expect any changes in Dec bulletin either. Wish you all the best!

[Sebiswaiting]

Agreed buddy.
I and wife both changed job last year..each
twice 😁, as didn't want to block career due to GC uncertainties. Our PD are Dec 2014 and June 2015.
Our current orgs are initiating GC just now!! By the time our i140 is approved, it will be another 2 years due to current DoL processing speed.

Regarding ROW, demand for NIW EB2 seems suddenly increasing since this year. Iran with highest and Brazil next are leading demand there.

Recession is surely looming, but employment rate is still robust. Also NIW cases may not be impacted by receiion, considering they don't need job offer even though it is EMPlOYMENT based category 2.

I do hope recession, pandemic doesn't come though.

Yes, I agree the news appears bleak. One thing that USCIS does a very poor job at is trend analysis, so there is always hope. Let's see if they release the numbers related to ROW which would give us a more clearer picture. With recession looming in 2023 the situation can change pretty quick. At this time, I would say do not have any positive or negative hopes as far as the movement is concerned as the situation is still very fluid. Do not expect any changes in Dec bulletin either. Wish you all the best!

[optimista]

Folks, Gurus

I am visiting this forum after a while (because my application was taking forever to process and I decided to take a break from the follow-up process). Briefly my case is as follows - EB2 (PD August 2010), applied in Nov, 2020, got EAD in February, 2022. Case was initially w Nebraska SC, then transferred to NBC in July 2022. Then Medical RFE request came in Aug 2022, so I was finally excited. They asked me to send the RFE response ASAP, so that they can consider my application for 2022 quota before financial years ends on September 30th. I did sent them the RFE response immediately. After all this, now the status shows up as - Case Remains Pending - We are temporarily pausing work on your application because an immigrant visa number is not immediately available to you. Once an immigrant visa number becomes immediately available to you, we will resume processing of your application.
Can someone please explain, what happens next? Does it mean, that they could not allocate number for me in the last FY and now I have to wait for the visa numbers in this FY. If that is the case, then why the visa numbers are still not available. The FY started already. How soon I can get the GC finally. I have already submitted my service request to the local senator and they assured me that they are submitting their request to USCIS.

My wife strangely have not received the Medical RFE yet. The senator office told us that her case would be out of average processing time on 23rd October so I have to wait till that date to request them for an escalation. How soon she is likely to receive RFE for medical?

Please let me know whatever your thoughts are. What more I shall I do here? I have heard about Ombudsman request process. Shall I try for that? Let me know please. Thank you as always.

[qesehmk]

Folks, Gurus

I am visiting this forum after a while (because my application was taking forever to process and I decided to take a break from the follow-up process). Briefly my case is as follows - EB2 (PD August 2010), applied in Nov, 2020, got EAD in February, 2022. Case was initially w Nebraska SC, then transferred to NBC in July 2022. Then Medical RFE request came in Aug 2022, so I was finally excited. They asked me to send the RFE response ASAP, so that they can consider my application for 2022 quota before financial years ends on September 30th. I did sent them the RFE response immediately. After all this, now the status shows up as - Case Remains Pending - We are temporarily pausing work on your application because an immigrant visa number is not immediately available to you. Once an immigrant visa number becomes immediately available to you, we will resume processing of your application.
Can someone please explain, what happens next? Does it mean, that they could not allocate number for me in the last FY and now I have to wait for the visa numbers in this FY. If that is the case, then why the visa numbers are still not available. The FY started already. How soon I can get the GC finally. I have already submitted my service request to the local senator and they assured me that they are submitting their request to USCIS.

My wife strangely have not received the Medical RFE yet. The senator office told us that her case would be out of average processing time on 23rd October so I have to wait till that date to request them for an escalation. How soon she is likely to receive RFE for medical?

Please let me know whatever your thoughts are. What more I shall I do here? I have heard about Ombudsman request process. Shall I try for that? Let me know please. Thank you as always.

Optimista - looking at your date - you should not be worried about visa availability. Now you are totally in the clear from that angle. Something else must be going on here. So you need an attorney or a senator rooting for you. They will be helpful getting some info what's going on here.

[LeoAugust]

@qesehmk, Do you see any prospect of Eb2-Dec-2013 getting adjudicated by Sep-30-2023? Thanks in advance for your response...
Thanks

[qesehmk]

@qesehmk, Do you see any prospect of Eb2-Dec-2013 getting adjudicated by Sep-30-2023? Thanks in advance for your response...
Thanks

Leo - I don't do manual calculations anymore. But my gut feel is yes it should be possible.

[LeoAugust]

Leo - I don't do manual calculations anymore. But my gut feel is yes it should be possible.

Thanks @qesehmk for your response. It gives a good feeling and confident listening from you. The way news coming around abt ROW/EB1C, I thought it is impossible to get through by Sep-30-2023.Thanks again.

[qesehmk]

Thanks @qesehmk for your response. It gives a good feeling and confident listening from you. The way news coming around abt ROW/EB1C, I thought it is impossible to get through by Sep-30-2023.Thanks again.

You are welcome. To be double sure - use WhereismyGC.

[optimista]

Optimista - looking at your date - you should not be worried about visa availability. Now you are totally in the clear from that angle. Something else must be going on here. So you need an attorney or a senator rooting for you. They will be helpful getting some info what's going on here.

Q, thank you for your response. I got a recent update that fingerprints which were taken a while ago (in August last year) are now applied to my case. Is that a positive sign? Honestly, even after researching this, I am not getting a clear information on whether this is a positive step and how soon after this step, I should be getting my green card. It would help, if you can provide me some input on this. Thanks.

[qesehmk]

Q, thank you for your response. I got a recent update that fingerprints which were taken a while ago (in August last year) are now applied to my case. Is that a positive sign? Honestly, even after researching this, I am not getting a clear information on whether this is a positive step and how soon after this step, I should be getting my green card. It would help, if you can provide me some input on this. Thanks.

I can't say for sure. My feeling is it can't hurt. But what I have done this year that I am very proud of and may answer you question is developing a kind of AI approach to parsing and correlating such status changes on cases across thousands of cases and tell you what your next likely case steps are.

This is still not perfect but can give you pretty damn idea what you can expect next .... check at www.whereismygc.com ...

[LeoAugust]

You are welcome. To be double sure - use WhereismyGC.

Thanks Sure.

[LeoAugust]

You are welcome. To be double sure - use WhereismyGC.

@qesehmk I joined whereismygc. Very good one... I think I should be able to ask my doubts there. Thanks for your guidance...

[qesehmk]

@qesehmk I joined whereismygc. Very good one... I think I should be able to ask my doubts there. Thanks for your guidance...

I am glad you liked it. I have spent considerable time and energy building WhereismyGC as a meaningful and useful service.

[optimista]

I can't say for sure. My feeling is it can't hurt. But what I have done this year that I am very proud of and may answer you question is developing a kind of AI approach to parsing and correlating such status changes on cases across thousands of cases and tell you what your next likely case steps are.

This is still not perfect but can give you pretty damn idea what you can expect next .... check at www.whereismygc.com ...

Hi Q,
I had a quick question in case you can look in to it. So I had raised the request with local senator's office and they got the following response from USCIS:
"His case was transferred to the San Diego Field Office for review and adjudication. At the time of adjudication for his application, the maximum level of visa numbers available for Employment First (EB-1), Employment Second (EB-2), Employment Third (EB-3), and Other Worker (EW) for fiscal year 2022 have been reached. His case was then sent back to the National Benefits Center to be placed on hold until the visa becomes available for fiscal year 2023."

So I am totally confused about this. Why they sent back the case to NBC again God knows. In any case, my question was how soon the visas will become available for fiscal year 2023. I was under the impression that they must have become available already, since the fiscal year 2023 already started. Am I missing something here. Please give your 2 cents and that will be probably the last question to you for now from me. Thanks so much for your help. Really appreciate it.

Just for context, my priority date is August 2010, EB2, I have already got my EAD.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,
I had a quick question in case you can look in to it. So I had raised the request with local senator's office and they got the following response from USCIS:
"His case was transferred to the San Diego Field Office for review and adjudication. At the time of adjudication for his application, the maximum level of visa numbers available for Employment First (EB-1), Employment Second (EB-2), Employment Third (EB-3), and Other Worker (EW) for fiscal year 2022 have been reached. His case was then sent back to the National Benefits Center to be placed on hold until the visa becomes available for fiscal year 2023."

So I am totally confused about this. Why they sent back the case to NBC again God knows. In any case, my question was how soon the visas will become available for fiscal year 2023. I was under the impression that they must have become available already, since the fiscal year 2023 already started. Am I missing something here. Please give your 2 cents and that will be probably the last question to you for now from me. Thanks so much for your help. Really appreciate it.

Just for context, my priority date is August 2010, EB2, I have already got my EAD.

I agree with you that for this date a visa must be available. You need to tell the senator that the date is already curent and visa should be available. People after your date have been greened. Just be reasonable. Dont pester him. They will help you.

If not find a lawyer and send a request to USCIS through a lawyer. That will be costly but seems like last resort if you have tried Emma / senator / FOIA etc .... then lawyer is the last resort imho.

So perhaps raise a query with USCIS AND also reach out to senator.

[optimista]

I agree with you that for this date a visa must be available. You need to tell the senator that the date is already curent and visa should be available. People after your date have been greened. Just be reasonable. Dont pester him. They will help you.

If not find a lawyer and send a request to USCIS through a lawyer. That will be costly but seems like last resort if you have tried Emma / senator / FOIA etc .... then lawyer is the last resort imho.

So perhaps raise a query with USCIS AND also reach out to senator.

Hi Q, thank you for the advice. Really appreciate it. I think I am going to take lawyer's help here. This is just getting beyond tolerable for me now. Thanks once again. I will post the updates here later.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q, thank you for the advice. Really appreciate it. I think I am going to take lawyer's help here. This is just getting beyond tolerable for me now. Thanks once again. I will post the updates here later.

Has the senator exhausted his/her means? If not - that is quick and easy remedy for now. Ask their office to ask USCIS/DOS what is wrong with the case since the date is already current. Isn't it?

[srisri]

Has the senator exhausted his/her means? If not - that is quick and easy remedy for now. Ask their office to ask USCIS/DOS what is wrong with the case since the date is already current. Isn't it?

I agree with Q, since senators office already stated the communication, they can reach out to USCIS contact and request why there is no availability of visa as FY 2023 already started. This could be a faster route to get the approval

[optimista]

I agree with Q, since senators office already stated the communication, they can reach out to USCIS contact and request why there is no availability of visa as FY 2023 already started. This could be a faster route to get the approval

HI SriSri and Q

Thank you for chiming in. I will check with the senator's office about this.

[vsivarama]

So I am totally confused about this. Why they sent back the case to NBC again God knows. In any case, my question was how soon the visas will become available for fiscal year 2023. I was under the impression that they must have become available already, since the fiscal year 2023 already started. Am I missing something here. Please give your 2 cents and that will be probably the last question to you for now from me. Thanks so much for your help. Really appreciate it.

Just for context, my priority date is August 2010, EB2, I have already got my EAD.

It was a bad case of timing for you. The field offices are not equipped to store our files. They are used for prompt processing of the cases at hand. Service centers serve as storage warehouses and unfortunately for you, your file made it to the FO when the visa numbers were unavailable and hence they just sent it back to NBC. If NBC resends your case to FO then your case will be picked up and processed. I would say point out to the senator that yes, the numbers were indeed not available when your file went to the FO but now there are numbers available again. So request your senator if they could urge USCIS to process your case now that the visa numbers are available again.

[qesehmk]

It was a bad case of timing for you. The field offices are not equipped to store our files. They are used for prompt processing of the cases at hand. Service centers serve as storage warehouses and unfortunately for you, your file made it to the FO when the visa numbers were unavailable and hence they just sent it back to NBC. If NBC resends your case to FO then your case will be picked up and processed. I would say point out to the senator that yes, the numbers were indeed not available when your file went to the FO but now there are numbers available again. So request your senator if they could urge USCIS to process your case now that the visa numbers are available again.

Great insight!

[optimista]

It was a bad case of timing for you. The field offices are not equipped to store our files. They are used for prompt processing of the cases at hand. Service centers serve as storage warehouses and unfortunately for you, your file made it to the FO when the visa numbers were unavailable and hence they just sent it back to NBC. If NBC resends your case to FO then your case will be picked up and processed. I would say point out to the senator that yes, the numbers were indeed not available when your file went to the FO but now there are numbers available again. So request your senator if they could urge USCIS to process your case now that the visa numbers are available again.

Got it. Whoa, this was really a riddle for me, thanks for simplifying and explaining it to me. Really appreciate your support. I am working with the senator's office, let's see how that pans out. Regards.

[gsingh]

Withdraw the 485j form -
485j was filed to change I485 underlying basis from EB3 to EB2. It is not approved yet. With a retrogression in EB2 and forward movement in EB3, I am now current for FA in EB3.
Wondering if there is an option to withdraw the pending 485j and what are the chances of it's success.