EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[sushi2012]

My date is right after yours.. and this line of yours sums up a lot of people
"Bottomline, inspite of doing everything right and I was left out of the covid bounty of GCs. Agreed, Aug-2012 is not a bad PD, the wait continues...."

Just a quick update, our application was transferred to NBC a couple of weeks ago and is at a FO now.

[qesehmk]

... they pretend and are legally your attorneys but they usually don't behave like it...

I totally second this.

[GCMirage]

Just a quick update, our application was transferred to NBC a couple of weeks ago and is at a FO now.

Nice! You may likely make the cut this fiscal year. All the best!

No movement here, still stuck at Nebraska. My hunch is that for some reason my TUB is being ignored, either because the attorneys did not do the filing right or it was logged incorrectly into the USCIS system. Which means my 485 is bundled up as a EB3 and will keep collecting dust until Aug 2012 becomes current in EB3. As a Hail Mary attempt, I sent a TUB letter to Nebraska yesterday! The saga continues...

[Positive]

Nice! You may likely make the cut this fiscal year. All the best!

No movement here, still stuck at Nebraska. My hunch is that for some reason my TUB is being ignored, either because the attorneys did not do the filing right or it was logged incorrectly into the USCIS system. Which means my 485 is bundled up as a EB3 and will keep collecting dust until Aug 2012 becomes current in EB3. As a Hail Mary attempt, I sent a TUB letter to Nebraska yesterday! The saga continues...

Send one to Montclair address with the 485j receipt. Texas and Nebraska are the hellholes everything goes to die at.

[SG2020]

Hi all -

Wanted to share my situation with this group and hopefully get some insights as I am not sure what to make of it all.

High level timeline:
Nov 2020: EB2 >> EB3 downgrade
Mid 2021: I-140 approved through PP.
Sep 2021: Biometrics for me and my wife in Sep 2021. Her online case history mentions that 'fingerprints were taken' but mine doesn't.
April 2022: EAD/AP received as a result of a lawsuit I joined.
April 2022: Application transferred to NBC and then to FO/Orlando.
May 2022: RFE received for medicals, birth certificate, marriage, and lawful presence. RFE response delivered on July 22.
Aug 1, 2022: Online update to I-131 to show "fingerprints relating to your Form I-131, Application for Travel Document, Receipt Number SRC2190******, have been applied to your case."

Today, I received another biometrics appointment! My appointment in 2021 was also for Code 3. Also, the appointment letter came from NBC/ Lee?s Summit, MO but the notice shows Service Center as TSC.

Any thoughts on what could be going on?

[Positive]

Hi all -

Wanted to share my situation with this group and hopefully get some insights as I am not sure what to make of it all.

High level timeline:
Nov 2020: EB2 >> EB3 downgrade
Mid 2021: I-140 approved through PP.
Sep 2021: Biometrics for me and my wife in Sep 2021. Her online case history mentions that 'fingerprints were taken' but mine doesn't.
April 2022: EAD/AP received as a result of a lawsuit I joined.
April 2022: Application transferred to NBC and then to FO/Orlando.
May 2022: RFE received for medicals, birth certificate, marriage, and lawful presence. RFE response delivered on July 22.
Aug 1, 2022: Online update to I-131 to show "fingerprints relating to your Form I-131, Application for Travel Document, Receipt Number SRC2190******, have been applied to your case."

Today, I received another biometrics appointment! My appointment in 2021 was also for Code 3. Also, the appointment letter came from NBC/ Lee?s Summit, MO but the notice shows Service Center as TSC.

Any thoughts on what could be going on?

Call up USCIS and ask them what's going on. Ask for a supervisor if the rep isn't able to give you a good answer. If all else fails, raise a Service request for USCIS error. If the appointment is for some time in September make sure to get it done asap so you may still have a chance to get approval.

[gsingh]

Folks on this forum - you have probably heard that the visa numbers for this FY have been used in EB1 and EB2.
Wondering if we have any number crunchers who can guestimate the SO for the next year and the retrogression for Oct 2022 (with and without any SO)?

[sushi2012]

Folks on this forum - you have probably heard that the visa numbers for this FY have been used in EB1 and EB2.
Wondering if we have any number crunchers who can guestimate the SO for the next year and the retrogression for Oct 2022 (with and without any SO)?

Stunning sequence of events. I guess my FO transfer was too late. Who knows when my date will be current again.. hopefully it is this calendar year but I wouldn't be surprised if I needed to wait a couple more years

[Sebiswaiting]

DoS helped with an actual Oct bulletin .. as it seems they don't want guestimates !!
Dates moved back 2012 April.
I don't know if this will be updated in Nov, but they haven't given any such indication.

There are close to 60k inventory in eb2, eb3. It is safe to assume that most of these are EB india cases. With 6k annual processing, it may take upto 10 years to clear till 1Jan 2015. I want to wish that there is horizontal spillover each year, but ROW and EB1 demand this year doesn't indicate that.
Considering some additional visas here and there, I feel it will take 6-9 years to clear EB2, EB3 India till Jan1 2015. There will be some new filers on top of that inventory.

Folks on this forum - you have probably heard that the visa numbers for this FY have been used in EB1 and EB2.
Wondering if we have any number crunchers who can guestimate the SO for the next year and the retrogression for Oct 2022 (with and without any SO)?

[gsingh]

DoS helped with an actual Oct bulletin .. as it seems they don't want guestimates !!
Dates moved back 2012 April.
I don't know if this will be updated in Nov, but they haven't given any such indication.

There are close to 60k inventory in eb2, eb3. It is safe to assume that most of these are EB india cases. With 6k annual processing, it may take upto 10 years to clear till 1Jan 2015. I want to wish that there is horizontal spillover each year, but ROW and EB1 demand this year doesn't indicate that.
Considering some additional visas here and there, I feel it will take 6-9 years to clear EB2, EB3 India till Jan1 2015. There will be some new filers on top of that inventory.

Ha.. Do you have an idea on the movement in the upcoming months? Could the dates potentially retrogress further or can we assume that DOS/USCIS did their math right.
I missed the FAD by 16 days. Trying to get a sense if I will be current in a couple of months or could it a year or more ?
What a mess the last 2 years have been. USCIS has had no regard of the PD or the RD while processing the cases.

[Jp123456]

Help needed - Folks my PD is sep 2011, latest 485 filing was EB3 in 2021, i didn't interfile and this month gave up hope waiting in EB3 and planned on interfiling to EB2, is it a sensible move, pls advise. it is going to be 20 years in this country and following rules!!!! so frustrated with the overall immigration process as everyone else visiting this forum. Pls advise

[Sebiswaiting]

I don't think that the dates will retrogress further. This is considering that they have idea about pending inventory.

If your PD is between FD and FAD, then I feel you should be current before Oct 2023. But again this is just guess work.
Also considering the low number of visas, I hope they are able to clear the the files till the FAD.

I saw somewhere that there is approx 50-60k spillover, but that may not be significant for EB2, EB3 INDIA, considering EB1 usage and EB2/3 ROW demand is high. So minimal vertical/horizontal spillover.

BTW.. our PD is Dec 2014, missed the earlier dates by 19 days or so!! And now we have to wait for many years before we can file 485.

Ha.. Do you have an idea on the movement in the upcoming months? Could the dates potentially retrogress further or can we assume that DOS/USCIS did their math right.
I missed the FAD by 16 days. Trying to get a sense if I will be current in a couple of months or could it a year or more ?
What a mess the last 2 years have been. USCIS has had no regard of the PD or the RD while processing the cases.

[android09]

I don't think that the dates will retrogress further. This is considering that they have idea about pending inventory.

If your PD is between FD and FAD, then I feel you should be current before Oct 2023. But again this is just guess work.
Also considering the low number of visas, I hope they are able to clear the the files till the FAD.

I saw somewhere that there is approx 50-60k spillover, but that may not be significant for EB2, EB3 INDIA, considering EB1 usage and EB2/3 ROW demand is high. So minimal vertical/horizontal spillover.

BTW.. our PD is Dec 2014, missed the earlier dates by 19 days or so!! And now we have to wait for many years before we can file 485.

From https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...of-status-faqs

It appears, USCIS is expecting 60,000 spillover to the EB Categories. That translates to 17160 green cards for EB1,2,3 and 4260 for EB4 and EB5. If the 7% country quota is applied then, 1201 extra green cards per category for EB1,2,3. Adding the regular 2800 quota, EB2 and EB2 I will stand to have 4000 GC for FY2023. Assuming horizontal and vertical spillover of about 90% and 80% for EB2I from EB2 row & EB1, approximately 27k spillover should come to EB2 and about 15k to EB3I. I haven?t factored any spillover from EB4 and EB5 and assumed there will only be horizontal spillover for EB3.

[gsingh]

I don't think that the dates will retrogress further. This is considering that they have idea about pending inventory.

If your PD is between FD and FAD, then I feel you should be current before Oct 2023. But again this is just guess work.
Also considering the low number of visas, I hope they are able to clear the the files till the FAD.

I saw somewhere that there is approx 50-60k spillover, but that may not be significant for EB2, EB3 INDIA, considering EB1 usage and EB2/3 ROW demand is high. So minimal vertical/horizontal spillover.

BTW.. our PD is Dec 2014, missed the earlier dates by 19 days or so!! And now we have to wait for many years before we can file 485.

That must be very disheartening. I am assuming your underlying petition is in EB3 because if it is in EB2, you still have time to file until end of this month or until USCIS updates the Sept VB. Filling date in EB2 is Jan 2015.

[gsingh]

From https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...of-status-faqs

It appears, USCIS is expecting 60,000 spillover to the EB Categories. That translates to 17160 green cards for EB1,2,3 and 4260 for EB4 and EB5. If the 7% country quota is applied then, 1201 extra green cards per category for EB1,2,3. Adding the regular 2800 quota, EB2 and EB2 I will stand to have 4000 GC for FY2023. Assuming horizontal and vertical spillover of about 90% and 80% for EB2I from EB2 row & EB1, approximately 27k spillover should come to EB2 and about 15k to EB3I. I haven?t factored any spillover from EB4 and EB5 and assumed there will only be horizontal spillover for EB3.

Are the 1201 extra visas from the FB spillover available at the start of the FY ? I believe the horizontal and vertical SP from other EB categories wait until Q4. Is that understanding correct ?

[Sebiswaiting]

EB2, but date is in 3rd week of dec. Current FAD is Dec1.

That must be very disheartening. I am assuming your underlying petition is in EB3 because if it is in EB2, you still have time to file until end of this month or until USCIS updates the Sept VB. Filling date in EB2 is Jan 2015.

[android09]

I don't think that the dates will retrogress further. This is considering that they have idea about pending inventory.

If your PD is between FD and FAD, then I feel you should be current before Oct 2023. But again this is just guess work.
Also considering the low number of visas, I hope they are able to clear the the files till the FAD.

I saw somewhere that there is approx 50-60k spillover, but that may not be significant for EB2, EB3 INDIA, considering EB1 usage and EB2/3 ROW demand is high. So minimal vertical/horizontal spillover.

BTW.. our PD is Dec 2014, missed the earlier dates by 19 days or so!! And now we have to wait for many years before we can file 485.

Are the 1201 extra visas from the FB spillover available at the start of the FY ? I believe the horizontal and vertical SP from other EB categories wait until Q4. Is that understanding correct ?

Yes, the 1201 extra cards are available right away for USCIS to assign to cases. Whether they do or decide to split it over quarters, I don?t know.

[Sebiswaiting]

I hope that EB2I EB3I gets such numbers, but highly unlikely. This year, available count was much higher, and yet EB1 got over in Sept, so no vertical spillover. Similarly ROW demand was super high in EB3 causing EB3I to get 12.7k slots. So with less number of total visa available in 23, EB3 would get much less than what you are considering .
Not trying to portray a pessimistic view here, but historical data doesn't show a rosy picture.

Consider this, in pre covid years ..2019, 2018 etc all, EB2 I wasn't getting any significant vertical or horizontal spillover.. as India EB1 applications are usually higher than annual quota , which is why there was a backlog in EB1 till 2020.

From https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...of-status-faqs

It appears, USCIS is expecting 60,000 spillover to the EB Categories. That translates to 17160 green cards for EB1,2,3 and 4260 for EB4 and EB5. If the 7% country quota is applied then, 1201 extra green cards per category for EB1,2,3. Adding the regular 2800 quota, EB2 and EB2 I will stand to have 4000 GC for FY2023. Assuming horizontal and vertical spillover of about 90% and 80% for EB2I from EB2 row & EB1, approximately 27k spillover should come to EB2 and about 15k to EB3I. I haven?t factored any spillover from EB4 and EB5 and assumed there will only be horizontal spillover for EB3.

[gsingh]

EB2, but date is in 3rd week of dec. Current FAD is Dec1.

Yes that's the final action date.
I thought you said you have to wait to even file a 485.

[gsingh]

Yes, the 1201 extra cards are available right away for USCIS to assign to cases. Whether they do or decide to split it over quarters, I don?t know.

I believe they split the available number so that visas are available through out the year.

[Sebiswaiting]

Yes, we still need to wait. That's because USCIS is considering FAD and not FD.

Yes that's the final action date.
I thought you said you have to wait to even file a 485.

[gsingh]

Yes, we still need to wait. That's because USCIS is considering FAD and not FD.

USCIS not honoring the FD? Strange. Didn't know that

[vsivarama]

I hope that EB2I EB3I gets such numbers, but highly unlikely. This year, available count was much higher, and yet EB1 got over in Sept, so no vertical spillover. Similarly ROW demand was super high in EB3 causing EB3I to get 12.7k slots. So with less number of total visa available in 23, EB3 would get much less than what you are considering .
Not trying to portray a pessimistic view here, but historical data doesn't show a rosy picture.

What makes you think there was no vertical spillover from EB1 to EB2 this year? According to court filing the annul estimated limit for EB2 I is 60K. Total numbers in EB2 for FY 2022 is 80K. So by that logic ROW + China only used 20K EB2 Visas. I do believe there was a vertical spillover to EB2 of around 20-25K. EB1 was backlogged before the pandemic so I think the excess numbers went to the backdated candidates. After two years I would assume all backdated folks have been greened and next year EB1 usage may be around 40-45K. It is an assumption yes, but I don't think it's unrealistic. EB3 demand may be high as the difference between FAD vs FD for Philippines is 2 years. So EB3 will see a good amount of CP as this year. EB3I probably will get the bare minimum plus a couple thousand extra if lucky. However if the recession kicks in all bets are off. There will be an immediate slow down in ROW numbers.

[Sebiswaiting]

What I meant is that EB1 consumed higher than usual and got used up in Sept and I am not expecting any vertical spillover this year.

As you told, EB1 consumed close to 60k (based on 20k spillover that you mentioned).
This year with 200k EB1 gets close to 60k.
So EB1 in 2023 fiscal may consume what is available.
You are also right that there was EB1 backlog. But I can't say if the backlog was cleared this year or last year. If the bulk of backlog was cleared last year, then most of 60k eb1 are new demand and potentially new normal.
Usual EB1 quota is 40k, so usual EB1 demand was higher than 40k pre covid, and as per some of the lawyers demand for EB1 has increased since.
Plus they consumed all EB1 by Sept 7, so application for the last 3 weeks will add to the count.

Having said that, I do wish EB2 gets more...my PD is 3rd week of Dec 2014, and I do hope for any spillover.

What makes you think there was no vertical spillover from EB1 to EB2 this year? According to court filing the annul estimated limit for EB2 I is 60K. Total numbers in EB2 for FY 2022 is 80K. So by that logic ROW + China only used 20K EB2 Visas. I do believe there was a vertical spillover to EB2 of around 20-25K. EB1 was backlogged before the pandemic so I think the excess numbers went to the backdated candidates. After two years I would assume all backdated folks have been greened and next year EB1 usage may be around 40-45K. It is an assumption yes, but I don't think it's unrealistic. EB3 demand may be high as the difference between FAD vs FD for Philippines is 2 years. So EB3 will see a good amount of CP as this year. EB3I probably will get the bare minimum plus a couple thousand extra if lucky. However if the recession kicks in all bets are off. There will be an immediate slow down in ROW numbers.

[stillwaiting]

Hi all -

Wanted to share my situation

Priority Date: 05/10/2010 EB2
Changed Job: Mar 2020
New employer filed in EB3
Finally received GC for me and my wife.
But received RFE for my kid for submitting copies of H4 and I-94 again. Already replied and waiting for decision.

Thank you all for the discssions and suggestions on this forum. Good Luck all.