EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[gsingh]

Stay put in EB2 or be ready to downgrade?


PD:May 2011
RD:Nov 5 2020
ND:Feb 21, 2020
BM:September 2021
I140 Amendment approval:Aug 2021
Medicals interfiled: July last week or Aug first week.

My case was transferred from NSC to NBC on Nov 9th. I recently read this https://www.murthy.com/2021/12/02/de...etin-check-in/
where they talk about expected retrogression in EB2.

Given the uncertainty around processing , should I be ready to downgrade my petition to EB3? The article talked about no retrogression in EB3.

Even if EB2 retrogresses, can it go as far back as before May2011 ? If your case is with NBC now, there is a good chance it will get processed this FY.
My PD is 4/2012 and I am in EB3 and thinking of refiling or interfiling to move to EB2

[may2011]

Even if EB2 retrogresses, can it go as far back as before May2011 ? If your case is with NBC now, there is a good chance it will get processed this FY.
My PD is 4/2012 and I am in EB3 and thinking of refiling or interfiling to move to EB2

I frankly have no idea..Practically it shouldnt retrogress beyond May 2011.But you never know

[gsingh]

Looking for suggestion on refilling v/s interfiling -

My PD is 04/2012.Filed I-485 with a new EB3 I-140 in 10/2020. Application is with the TSC. I have a previously approved I-140 in EB2 with the same employer. My PD is current for FA in December in EB2.

I can either interfile to request USCIS to use the EB2 I-140 for the I-485 application. But with anticipation of mass interfiling , I am not sure when USCIS will be able to act on those.
Not sure if they are even going to accept the interfiling as it?s at their discretion. (Interfiled medicals 6 months back and not sure if those were attached to the I-485).
Per Reddy & Neumann, TSC is averaging 1300 I485 cases per month and it has a current backlog of 91000 I485s out of which 45000 were filed before Oct 2020.

Second option is to refile a new I-485 with EB2 I-140 in an effort to get out of TSC and hope the new application is processed by NBC/FO. I had moved out of the TSC geographical area but there is still a chance USCIS transfers the new application to TSC .
Does anyone know if there is any data available to determine whether USCIS is forwarding the refiling to the service center where the existing I-485 application is ?

I wanted to get other's opinion on both these options.
Appreciate any feedback.

Reposting.

[qesehmk]

Reposting.

I have no specific insight but since nobody seems to have responded I will just add my "uninformed" opinion.

My suggestion would be to interfile. My understanding is that interfiling means the case processing (like finger prints medical FBI etc is not redone). All they do is visa allocation.

Whereas in refiling they might redo some of those steps which will add to your time to approve. Good luck !

[mmax123]

Hello Experts,

I have a PD of March 2013. My dates/status are in my signature.

My current EB3 application is now retrogressed. I suspect that the EB3 dates will start moving later in the year, but not sure if they will reach March 2013. As of December bulletin, my DOF is current in EB2. I suspect my FAD will be current in the next few months. No one knows what will be the status of dates in October 2022 bulletin, but I suspect that EB2-I will stay ahead of EB3-I.

There is also the case of BBB bill in the Congress, but I am not going to hold my breath.

As many other applicants in my situation, I am wondering what should be the next step for me.
1. Do nothing and wait it out in EB3 for now. Reevaluate in a month or two.
2. Get EB2 I140 filed in premium with current employer now. Then, wait.
3. File a EB2 I140+I485+EAD+AP+Medicals application now (or when EB2 FAD is current).
4. Interfile now (or when EB2 FAD is current). This will need #2 to be completed.

I am leaning towards waiting for January bulletin and then taking a call on #2. I think #2 is relatively harmless except I will have to pay for the premium fees out of pocket.

I am thinking #3 will be prudent after FAD becomes current. An already approved I140 could help with landing the application in NBC.

While getting GC is obviously important, I am also counting down to the 6 month mark since my original I485 application. That, and the combo card, will give a measure of comfort and is more deterministic. I am not sure if applying in EB2 now will affect that (clock restarts with the new 485 application? Will I be asked to withdraw the EB3-I application)

Any thoughts/suggestions?

Thanks in advance!

[gsingh]

I have no specific insight but since nobody seems to have responded I will just add my "uninformed" opinion.

My suggestion would be to interfile. My understanding is that interfiling means the case processing (like finger prints medical FBI etc is not redone). All they do is visa allocation.

Whereas in refiling they might redo some of those steps which will add to your time to approve. Good luck !

Appreciate your suggestion qesehmk.
Reason I am considering refiling is in an attempt to move out of the Texas service center. At the current rate, it is highly unlikely TSC can process applications submitted Oct 2020 or before even if they are current and DQ this FY.

For refiling , I am hearing that there have been some cases where the new I-485 was transferred to the service center which has the original I485.
Not sure what's the truth to that or how many cases got transferred. It might just a telegram groups hearsay.
But if that happens, I won't be able to interfile later as there will be another I485 in that category and in that case interfiling might be a better option.

I understand there is no definitive answer but still wanted to get other thoughts on what are the chances of the second I485 application staying with NBC/FO.

Thanks

[optimista]

Folks,
I wanted a bit of your advice. Following are my details.
PD:July 25, 2010
RD:October 30, 2020
ND:Feb, 2020
BM:August 2021
Category: EB2
Service Center: NSC (Nebraska)

In my case the big issue is incredibly low speed of processing at NSC. I have heard that processing speed at NBC (National Benefit Center) is much better. I have following issues to deal with or need answer on sone of the questions below.

1. As per back of the envelope calculations done by 'some' people on TrackIt, the EAD may take 5 to 6 months still to process and GC may actually take 5 to 6 years to process. These are absurd numbers but I just want to be practical here and understand what is coming for me in the near future. Can any of you please opine on this. The official processing time for EAD is already past November (i.e. I should have received my EAD by now) and for GC processing NSC is stating that it would take 14 to 20 months to process the GC.

2. Does anyone has any guesses about how soon I can get my EAD and GC. I am now really desperate to get at least the EAD and would definitely appreciate if you can tell me when i can expect EAD and Advanced Parole.

3. If GC is going to take 5 to 6 years as some people are claiming, what are my actions to expedite my case. BTW, I have done senator contact, tier 2 call and all that, waiting for them to call back. But I was thinking of downgrading to EB3 to see if my case can move to NBC. Does it makes sense at this point of time to downgrade this. My lawyer has said that they can do one more filing in EB3 (double filing) and we have to let USCIS know that I have also filed in EB2.

4. Also what is the interfiling? How it can be done in my case?

I am really fade up waiting now and it has taken unbearable tole on my personal and professional life. I am loosing a lot of FTE opportunities for lack of EAD and also unable to travel to India for the same reason (I just don't want to stand in the visa stamping line anymore).

Would really appreciate if you can provide your advice on how I can expedite my case.

Thanks so much.

[qesehmk]

Appreciate your suggestion qesehmk.
Reason I am considering refiling is in an attempt to move out of the Texas service center. At the current rate, it is highly unlikely TSC can process applications submitted Oct 2020 or before even if they are current and DQ this FY.

For refiling , I am hearing that there have been some cases where the new I-485 was transferred to the service center which has the original I485.
Not sure what's the truth to that or how many cases got transferred. It might just a telegram groups hearsay.
But if that happens, I won't be able to interfile later as there will be another I485 in that category and in that case interfiling might be a better option.

I understand there is no definitive answer but still wanted to get other thoughts on what are the chances of the second I485 application staying with NBC/FO.

Thanks

I would not be concerned about which center the application goes - particularly when you are waiting in line for 10 years - any difference across different processing centers are minor compared to the overall wait times. Every otherwise if YOU were running USCIS would you think it is acceptable that one center runs slower than others and complicates your compliance with visa allocation laws?

So in short I would not base my decision on real or perceived difference in one service center vs another.

[qesehmk]

Folks,
I wanted a bit of your advice. Following are my details.
PD:July 25, 2010
RD:October 30, 2020
ND:Feb, 2020
BM:August 2021
Category: EB2
Service Center: NSC (Nebraska)

In my case the big issue is incredibly low speed of processing at NSC. I have heard that processing speed at NBC (National Benefit Center) is much better. I have following issues to deal with or need answer on sone of the questions below.

1. As per back of the envelope calculations done by 'some' people on TrackIt, the EAD may take 5 to 6 months still to process and GC may actually take 5 to 6 years to process. These are absurd numbers but I just want to be practical here and understand what is coming for me in the near future. Can any of you please opine on this. The official processing time for EAD is already past November (i.e. I should have received my EAD by now) and for GC processing NSC is stating that it would take 14 to 20 months to process the GC.

2. Does anyone has any guesses about how soon I can get my EAD and GC. I am now really desperate to get at least the EAD and would definitely appreciate if you can tell me when i can expect EAD and Advanced Parole.

3. If GC is going to take 5 to 6 years as some people are claiming, what are my actions to expedite my case. BTW, I have done senator contact, tier 2 call and all that, waiting for them to call back. But I was thinking of downgrading to EB3 to see if my case can move to NBC. Does it makes sense at this point of time to downgrade this. My lawyer has said that they can do one more filing in EB3 (double filing) and we have to let USCIS know that I have also filed in EB2.

4. Also what is the interfiling? How it can be done in my case?

I am really fade up waiting now and it has taken unbearable tole on my personal and professional life. I am loosing a lot of FTE opportunities for lack of EAD and also unable to travel to India for the same reason (I just don't want to stand in the visa stamping line anymore).

Would really appreciate if you can provide your advice on how I can expedite my case.

Thanks so much.

I will be quick -

1. No - for 2010 EB2 or EB3 it shouldn't at all take 5-6 years. Much less.
2. You should get EAD ASAP since your date is within 485 filing times right? Just a matter of processing speed of EAD applications. As per GC - again I would think 1 year is more than enough for 2010. Check WhereismyGC if you don't believe me but that will waste a good $13 for no reason.
3. Don't do anything. Just sit tight. Occasionally keep checking status. If your FAD is current and don't get it within 6 months -definitely do an FOIA on the status of your case.
4. Also what is the interfiling? How it can be done in my case? - Don't even bother if you are 2010 case.

Good luck my friend --- I can imagine how fade up you are. But I think 2010 people should really stop worrying.

[optimista]

I will be quick -

1. No - for 2010 EB2 or EB3 it shouldn't at all take 5-6 years. Much less.
2. You should get EAD ASAP since your date is within 485 filing times right? Just a matter of processing speed of EAD applications. As per GC - again I would think 1 year is more than enough for 2010. Check WhereismyGC if you don't believe me but that will waste a good $13 for no reason.
3. Don't do anything. Just sit tight. Occasionally keep checking status. If your FAD is current and don't get it within 6 months -definitely do an FOIA on the status of your case.
4. Also what is the interfiling? How it can be done in my case? - Don't even bother if you are 2010 case.

Good luck my friend --- I can imagine how fade up you are. But I think 2010 people should really stop worrying.

Hi @qesehmk, thank you very, very much for your quick response. Although it is quick response, it's a complete response and provides valuable inputs to all my questions and concerns. Can't thank you enough to you for your service. Yes, I have been a loyal WIMGC subscriber and may just resubscribe as you are suggesting, just to keep tab on the GC processing.

Other than that I am good for now. Thank you for patiently dealing with frustus like me for days, months, years by now :-). You and others like you are the 'tinkaas' which we 'doobta hua aadmis' look for on this forum. Take care.

[bones20]

Hi @qesehmk, thank you very, very much for your quick response. Although it is quick response, it's a complete response and provides valuable inputs to all my questions and concerns. Can't thank you enough to you for your service. Yes, I have been a loyal WIMGC subscriber and may just resubscribe as you are suggesting, just to keep tab on the GC processing.

Other than that I am good for now. Thank you for patiently dealing with frustus like me for days, months, years by now :-). You and others like you are the 'tinkaas' which we 'doobta hua aadmis' look for on this forum. Take care.

Its surprising and unfair that you havent got GC yet when folks with 2011, 2012 & even 2013 PD have got theirs. My PD is 04/2010 and I got GC in Sept 2021. It is just luck.

You may consider interfiling i693. May save you upto 45 days (mailing time + rfe response time + i693 procurement time).

[optimista]

Its surprising and unfair that you havent got GC yet when folks with 2011, 2012 & even 2013 PD have got theirs. My PD is 04/2010 and I got GC in Sept 2021. It is just luck.

You may consider interfiling i693. May save you upto 45 days (mailing time + rfe response time + i693 procurement time).

Thanks for the feedback. Yes, in my case I had recently changed the employer so my I-140 was not ready (approved), so my I-485 was applied along with application for I-140. I-140 took a few weeks to get approved and I think my application went back in the queue because of that I think. And my application is with Nebraska Service Center which is one of the slowest. I think these are the reasons. But in case you think there could be something else the reason here, please do let me know. I have come across many who are similar to my case. Thanks.

[gsingh]

I would not be concerned about which center the application goes - particularly when you are waiting in line for 10 years - any difference across different processing centers are minor compared to the overall wait times. Every otherwise if YOU were running USCIS would you think it is acceptable that one center runs slower than others and complicates your compliance with visa allocation laws?

So in short I would not base my decision on real or perceived difference in one service center vs another.

Thanks qesehmk.

[gsingh]

Folks,
I wanted a bit of your advice. Following are my details.
PD:July 25, 2010
RD:October 30, 2020
ND:Feb, 2020
BM:August 2021
Category: EB2
Service Center: NSC (Nebraska)

In my case the big issue is incredibly low speed of processing at NSC. I have heard that processing speed at NBC (National Benefit Center) is much better. I have following issues to deal with or need answer on sone of the questions below.

1. As per back of the envelope calculations done by 'some' people on TrackIt, the EAD may take 5 to 6 months still to process and GC may actually take 5 to 6 years to process. These are absurd numbers but I just want to be practical here and understand what is coming for me in the near future. Can any of you please opine on this. The official processing time for EAD is already past November (i.e. I should have received my EAD by now) and for GC processing NSC is stating that it would take 14 to 20 months to process the GC.

2. Does anyone has any guesses about how soon I can get my EAD and GC. I am now really desperate to get at least the EAD and would definitely appreciate if you can tell me when i can expect EAD and Advanced Parole.

3. If GC is going to take 5 to 6 years as some people are claiming, what are my actions to expedite my case. BTW, I have done senator contact, tier 2 call and all that, waiting for them to call back. But I was thinking of downgrading to EB3 to see if my case can move to NBC. Does it makes sense at this point of time to downgrade this. My lawyer has said that they can do one more filing in EB3 (double filing) and we have to let USCIS know that I have also filed in EB2.

4. Also what is the interfiling? How it can be done in my case?

I am really fade up waiting now and it has taken unbearable tole on my personal and professional life. I am loosing a lot of FTE opportunities for lack of EAD and also unable to travel to India for the same reason (I just don't want to stand in the visa stamping line anymore).

Would really appreciate if you can provide your advice on how I can expedite my case.

Thanks so much.

For EAD , you can request expedited processing. It's a hit or miss. D/L expiration or out of country travel has worked for some .
I got my EAD approved on 4th expedite request after driving around on expired license for a month.

[optimista]

For EAD , you can request expedited processing. It's a hit or miss. D/L expiration or out of country travel has worked for some .
I got my EAD approved on 4th expedite request after driving around on expired license for a month.

Thanks @gsingh, really appreciate your advice. I think I will try expedite request with travel to India as an excuse.

[nt2022]

Dear Experts,

Please let me know, if anyone have received update for your I765/I31 outside normal processing request. We have got an update that you should expect an action within 60 days. Still 20 days to go.

I do appreciate, if anyone got the same reply and approval status recently. Much appreciated your inputs and we have been waiting for long time to travel. Could we follow-up again or wait for the 60 days window to be complete?.

Thanks,

[ImmiGiveMe]

USCIS published FY21 Q4 485 data. Below are the approvals by quarter:

FY21 Approved EB 485
Q1 27,485
Q2 17,896
Q3 29,353
Q4 86,704
Total 161,438

[inspired_p]

USCIS published FY21 Q4 485 data. Below are the approvals by quarter:

FY21 Approved EB 485
Q1 27,485
Q2 17,896
Q3 29,353
Q4 86,704
Total 161,438

This should be unacceptable with 260K visa numbers available and they being able to process 87K in the last quarter it's such a waste ! unfortunately this is by design ; there is a strong bias against EB I

[altek001]

USCIS performance - 4th quarter

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr4.pdf

[soopergal]

Please send similar good vibes for my H1b petition too! <prayer hands>

TL;DR - future employer was also able to receive 3 year H1b approval. I'm happy but confused. I think I owed this community some insight about my case. Just wanted to say Thanks!


the Longer version:

Hi All,

A while back I posted about my situation (in my mind it was a unique one but probably not). Current employer had gotten H1 approved for 3 years even though PD was current since July 2021. This was a concern for future employer while transferring H1b. They pointed out from current employer's petition paperwork that in fact they had misrepresented to USCIS in saying that my priority date was 'not' current and had gotten a 3 year approval which could be problematic when its time to get GC approval. Future employer's attorney volunteered to fix that so this wont be an issue during filing 485 and re-filed paperwork and submitted to USCIS and said most likely they will get 1 year approval because thats the law/rule. We were going to go on H4EAD status just to stay employed and all sorts of theatrics incase I got 1 year approval. But lo and behold this week I got 3 year approval. I dont know how. I will most probably receive the petition soon to see what magic they did. But I just wanted to extend thanks to this community in providing support when I was feeling lost. I hope my post can help bring clarity to anyone else in my situation.

[ImmiGiveMe]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2022.html

Jan 2022 VB is out.

Except for EB2 FA (moved to 08JUL12) none changed from Dec2021 VB in FAD and Filing charts or all categories and countries

[SG2020]

I am in the same boat. May 2011 PD. No EAD or I-140 approval yet. My application was received on Nov 4, 2020 and has been stuck in TSC. Had my biometrics in early September but nothing since.

Do you guys recommend interfiling to EB2? If anyone made the switch, what was your experience? Did anything move? Did the application stay with TSC or moved to another location? Will appreciate thoughts/advice.

Reposting.

Originally Posted by gsingh View Post
Looking for suggestion on refilling v/s interfiling -

My PD is 04/2012.Filed I-485 with a new EB3 I-140 in 10/2020. Application is with the TSC. I have a previously approved I-140 in EB2 with the same employer. My PD is current for FA in December in EB2.

I can either interfile to request USCIS to use the EB2 I-140 for the I-485 application. But with anticipation of mass interfiling , I am not sure when USCIS will be able to act on those.
Not sure if they are even going to accept the interfiling as it?s at their discretion. (Interfiled medicals 6 months back and not sure if those were attached to the I-485).
Per Reddy & Neumann, TSC is averaging 1300 I485 cases per month and it has a current backlog of 91000 I485s out of which 45000 were filed before Oct 2020.

Second option is to refile a new I-485 with EB2 I-140 in an effort to get out of TSC and hope the new application is processed by NBC/FO. I had moved out of the TSC geographical area but there is still a chance USCIS transfers the new application to TSC .
Does anyone know if there is any data available to determine whether USCIS is forwarding the refiling to the service center where the existing I-485 application is ?

I wanted to get other's opinion on both these options.
Appreciate any feedback.

[inspired_p]

TL;DR - future employer was also able to receive 3 year H1b approval. I'm happy but confused. I think I owed this community some insight about my case. Just wanted to say Thanks!


the Longer version:

Hi All,

A while back I posted about my situation (in my mind it was a unique one but probably not). Current employer had gotten H1 approved for 3 years even though PD was current since July 2021. This was a concern for future employer while transferring H1b. They pointed out from current employer's petition paperwork that in fact they had misrepresented to USCIS in saying that my priority date was 'not' current and had gotten a 3 year approval which could be problematic when its time to get GC approval. Future employer's attorney volunteered to fix that so this wont be an issue during filing 485 and re-filed paperwork and submitted to USCIS and said most likely they will get 1 year approval because thats the law/rule. We were going to go on H4EAD status just to stay employed and all sorts of theatrics incase I got 1 year approval. But lo and behold this week I got 3 year approval. I dont know how. I will most probably receive the petition soon to see what magic they did. But I just wanted to extend thanks to this community in providing support when I was feeling lost. I hope my post can help bring clarity to anyone else in my situation.

Good to hear positive outcomes !! 👏👏As I said we didn?t face this issue ourselves either wrt to my spouse so I didn?t even consider it an issue until you posted. Ignorance is definitely bliss in some cases , who knows how much fretting we would have gone through then

[gsingh]

I am in the same boat. May 2011 PD. No EAD or I-140 approval yet. My application was received on Nov 4, 2020 and has been stuck in TSC. Had my biometrics in early September but nothing since.

Do you guys recommend interfiling to EB2? If anyone made the switch, what was your experience? Did anything move? Did the application stay with TSC or moved to another location? Will appreciate thoughts/advice.

Originally Posted by gsingh View Post
Looking for suggestion on refilling v/s interfiling -


My PD is 04/2012.Filed I-485 with a new EB3 I-140 in 10/2020. Application is with the TSC. I have a previously approved I-140 in EB2 with the same employer. My PD is current for FA in December in EB2.

I can either interfile to request USCIS to use the EB2 I-140 for the I-485 application. But with anticipation of mass interfiling , I am not sure when USCIS will be able to act on those.
Not sure if they are even going to accept the interfiling as it?s at their discretion. (Interfiled medicals 6 months back and not sure if those were attached to the I-485).
Per Reddy & Neumann, TSC is averaging 1300 I485 cases per month and it has a current backlog of 91000 I485s out of which 45000 were filed before Oct 2020.

Second option is to refile a new I-485 with EB2 I-140 in an effort to get out of TSC and hope the new application is processed by NBC/FO. I had moved out of the TSC geographical area but there is still a chance USCIS transfers the new application to TSC .
Does anyone know if there is any data available to determine whether USCIS is forwarding the refiling to the service center where the existing I-485 application is ?

I wanted to get other's opinion on both these options.
Appreciate any feedback.

As you are current in both the categories, there is no value in interfiling. I have not heard any case which was transferred after interfiling although it is early to conclude anything.

USCIS released Q4 official report: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr4.pdf :

In quarter 4 of FY2021, the USCIS approved 86,704 EB green cards in total.
* SRC approved 5,968
* LIN approved 4,622
* NBC approved 76,114

By the end of FY21, 245,490 EB 485 cases are pending with the USCIS. Among them,
* 89,002 are at SRC
* 83,574 are at LIN
* 72,914 are at NBC

With such disparity people stuck at SRC and LIN will have to wait many years .

I think the best option is to raise this issue wherever we can citing the above data from USCIS.
Write to your reps/senators. If you work for the big tech company, raise it to the legal counsel.

[SG2020]

Thanks for your response. Yes, I am current in both. The only difference between both the queues for me is I have an approved I-140 for my EB2. The I-140 for the downgrade has not been approved yet. Requests for expedited processing through Fragomen were turned down 3 times. Should I choose a queue where I have an approved I-140 at this point?

I will start writing to our 'leaders' in Cali...has anyone had any success with either the senators or their congressperson in the bay area? We had approached Dianne Feinstein's office during my wife's H4-EAD, and it was totally bonkers. We were just shocked by the treatment we received from her team - rude, incompetent, and just indifferent.

As you are current in both the categories, there is no value in interfiling. I have not heard any case which was transferred after interfiling although it is early to conclude anything.

USCIS released Q4 official report: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr4.pdf :

In quarter 4 of FY2021, the USCIS approved 86,704 EB green cards in total.
* SRC approved 5,968
* LIN approved 4,622
* NBC approved 76,114

By the end of FY21, 245,490 EB 485 cases are pending with the USCIS. Among them,
* 89,002 are at SRC
* 83,574 are at LIN
* 72,914 are at NBC

With such disparity people stuck at SRC and LIN will have to wait many years .

I think the best option is to raise this issue wherever we can citing the above data from USCIS.
Write to your reps/senators. If you work for the big tech company, raise it to the legal counsel.