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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #4476
    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    The wording is not clear, it seems to say FB stays in FB and EB stays in EB for 2020 and 2021. Since the 100K EB unused were originally from FB 2020, it can be interpreted that they would go back to FB in FY2022 and not stay with EB.

    The reason the wording is is not clear is that it's a copy paste from last year's covid relief bill so the FB visas weren't spilled over yet. There is a very good chance that they will change the language in consultation with USCIS and State Department before passing it, but they will probably pick the interpretation that those visas go to FB, since their motive is to erase the impact of covid.
    I agree. The intent of the legislation was to nullify the effect of Covid closures, so no matter how the law reads itself , it will be interpreted to revert FB-> EB spillovers from 2020 and 2021.
    PD EB3-I 10-28-2010; RD 10-23-2020 LPR 08-26-2021

  2. #4477
    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    The wording is not clear, it seems to say FB stays in FB and EB stays in EB for 2020 and 2021. Since the 100K EB unused were originally from FB 2020, it can be interpreted that they would go back to FB in FY2022 and not stay with EB.

    The reason the wording is is not clear is that it's a copy paste from last year's covid relief bill so the FB visas weren't spilled over yet. There is a very good chance that they will change the language in consultation with USCIS and State Department before passing it, but they will probably pick the interpretation that those visas go to FB, since their motive is to erase the impact of covid.
    Correct. Anyone who is reading the Meng amendment to allow FB to EB spillover in 2021 is in for a rude shock. Here is what she is intending, straight from the horses mouth (https://meng.house.gov/media-center/...luded-in-key):
    "Meng?s measures would allow unused family-based, employment-based, and diversity visas that were allocated in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to remain available in fiscal year 2022 and beyond until they are used." This paragraph is preceded by the fllowing:
    "The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allocates 480,000 visas annually for family-sponsored categories; 140,000 visas annually for employment-sponsored categories; and 55,000 for diversity visas. Due to COVID-19 and the curtailing of immigration operations both abroad at U.S. embassies and consulates, and at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), only a fraction of these visa allocations were used in fiscal year 2020 or will be used by the end of the current 2021 fiscal year which concludes in October."

    Essentially, MENG would take away any FB spillover into EB for the current and next fiscal years. All we get is the 5/10% EB visas that were wasted in 2020 and a preservation of any unused visas from 2021's annual quota of 140K. Now, please don't argue how will they restore to FB visas from 2020 that have been allocated and will be used up by EB this year. Plainly, USCIS is carefully working to ensure that not even 140K EB visas are issued this year.

  3. #4478
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    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    Correct. Anyone who is reading the Meng amendment to allow FB to EB spillover in 2021 is in for a rude shock. Here is what she is intending, straight from the horses mouth (https://meng.house.gov/media-center/...luded-in-key):
    "Meng?s measures would allow unused family-based, employment-based, and diversity visas that were allocated in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to remain available in fiscal year 2022 and beyond until they are used." This paragraph is preceded by the fllowing:
    "The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allocates 480,000 visas annually for family-sponsored categories; 140,000 visas annually for employment-sponsored categories; and 55,000 for diversity visas. Due to COVID-19 and the curtailing of immigration operations both abroad at U.S. embassies and consulates, and at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), only a fraction of these visa allocations were used in fiscal year 2020 or will be used by the end of the current 2021 fiscal year which concludes in October."

    Essentially, MENG would take away any FB spillover into EB for the current and next fiscal years. All we get is the 5/10% EB visas that were wasted in 2020 and a preservation of any unused visas from 2021's annual quota of 140K. Now, please don't argue how will they restore to FB visas from 2020 that have been allocated and will be used up by EB this year. Plainly, USCIS is carefully working to ensure that not even 140K EB visas are issued this year.
    When is the bill with this amendment expected to pass? I am asking as Charlie mentioned he will know the numbers in Nov.I am wondering if it passed after Oct 2021, how will they change the numbers already assigned to EB category.It will surely be a messy process

  4. #4479
    Quote Originally Posted by may2011 View Post
    When is the bill with this amendment expected to pass? I am asking as Charlie mentioned he will know the numbers in Nov.I am wondering if it passed after Oct 2021, how will they change the numbers already assigned to EB category.It will surely be a messy process
    Spec has mentioned this numerous times. Final numerical limits for EB GC i.e any spillover from FB is determined by Nov or Dec. Fiscal year ends on Sep-30th; Numbers from consulates across the world + Field offices + USCIS usage are sent to DHS which then tabulates total usage for a previous fiscal year and if there is leftover then it gets added to current year EB limit. In past such report is published in Nov or sometimes in Dec.

    If Charlie is saying he will know FY-22 quota in Nov - I will interpret as any left over FB visa coz of consulate closure + 140k EB visa will determine total EB limit of FY-22 which runs from Oct 1st 2021 to Sep 30th 2022. I highly doubt he is referring to Meng's ammendment when he said final numerical limit for EB GC.

    FY21 Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

  5. #4480
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    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    Spec has mentioned this numerous times. Final numerical limits for EB GC i.e any spillover from FB is determined by Nov or Dec. Fiscal year ends on Sep-30th; Numbers from consulates across the world + Field offices + USCIS usage are sent to DHS which then tabulates total usage for a previous fiscal year and if there is leftover then it gets added to current year EB limit. In past such report is published in Nov or sometimes in Dec.

    If Charlie is saying he will know FY-22 quota in Nov - I will interpret as any left over FB visa coz of consulate closure + 140k EB visa will determine total EB limit of FY-22 which runs from Oct 1st 2021 to Sep 30th 2022. I highly doubt he is referring to Meng's ammendment when he said final numerical limit for EB GC.

    FY21 Numerical Limits - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf
    Thanks for the info!

  6. #4481
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    Correct. Anyone who is reading the Meng amendment to allow FB to EB spillover in 2021 is in for a rude shock. Here is what she is intending, straight from the horses mouth (https://meng.house.gov/media-center/...luded-in-key):
    "Meng?s measures would allow unused family-based, employment-based, and diversity visas that were allocated in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to remain available in fiscal year 2022 and beyond until they are used." This paragraph is preceded by the fllowing:
    "The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allocates 480,000 visas annually for family-sponsored categories; 140,000 visas annually for employment-sponsored categories; and 55,000 for diversity visas. Due to COVID-19 and the curtailing of immigration operations both abroad at U.S. embassies and consulates, and at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), only a fraction of these visa allocations were used in fiscal year 2020 or will be used by the end of the current 2021 fiscal year which concludes in October."

    Essentially, MENG would take away any FB spillover into EB for the current and next fiscal years. All we get is the 5/10% EB visas that were wasted in 2020 and a preservation of any unused visas from 2021's annual quota of 140K. Now, please don't argue how will they restore to FB visas from 2020 that have been allocated and will be used up by EB this year. Plainly, USCIS is carefully working to ensure that not even 140K EB visas are issued this year.
    So if it passes, it will screw us royally! Any idea what is the possibility for the bill to be passed?

  7. #4482
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    Hope you get your GC soon.
    Thanks buddy, wish you the same too
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  8. #4483
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    Po
    So Q3 EB numbers came at 27k. That is 13k less than what I had assumed. That changes total expected numbers to go down to 175k - 185k (rounding).

    USCIS seems to have stated that they will be able to process 180k.
    I hope they do indeed, and I do hope that 180k is approval count and just not processing count.

    Without any change, I think we can safely assume that USCIs will be able to approve at least 200k(probably more) next year starting Oct 2021. Howver no one knows what, if any, legislation change may come, any change in priority.

    Considering 70-80k wastage this year, and similar additional number getting absorbed next year, only seemingly positive outcome is less chance of a retrogression. I see EB2 moving faster in net months, and EB3 mostly static with slower forward movement if any. I also expect EB3 to be ahead off EB2, even though both will converge towards a center..

    I hope budget reconciliation somehow includes some good news.




    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Q - You said that you won't comment anymore, but you can't escape so easily. We look up to you, Spec , and others for key insights.

    While I am a novice and not as experienced as some of you folks, but I have some calculations too (based on trend, viewpoints, telegram Chinese charts, USCiS statement s), and the end result comes close to what Q is saying.. around 50-60k wastage.

    Here's the insight that I am getting ..
    1. Q1 and Q2 EB approved = 46000
    2. Charlie said in mid July that around 100k will be wasted, so based on data he had for Q3 and expected speed on Q4, he was expecting around 100k to be processed in Q3 and Q4.
    I am assuming that he based it with a consideration of 40k for Q3 and 60k for Q4. I took this split considering that we saw more trend of approval in July which is part of Q4.
    So I am considering Q1+Q2 = 46000, Q3 ~40000.

    3. Towards end of July, there was a sudden change of pace. We started seeing lots of approval posts. Saw my friends getting GCd around/after this. Telegram charts showing similar trend as well. Considering this trend of 1.5/2k per day, Q4 should get around 100-110k EB approval.

    So Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 ~ 190K to 200K

    USCIS said that they expect max approval since 2005, so they expect approval below or around 200k which is in similar line. If they expected 150k approval then I feel they wouldn't have given reference of 2005.

    I so hope that max and maX gets approved. Wife's eb2 is 2014 Dec and mine 2015 June, and both changed job so new process needs to be started ..

    Note - Tomorrow we have Charlie's chat, so I am sure we will have a much clearer data tomorrow, and I hope we get some positive insights.

  9. #4484
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    Hi @Q
    I had posted a message to this thread, and after posting and trying to edit, I got error that link is invalid. The post isn't seen in the thread there after. Is there any issue going on?

  10. #4485
    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Hi @Q
    I had posted a message to this thread, and after posting and trying to edit, I got error that link is invalid. The post isn't seen in the thread there after. Is there any issue going on?
    Hi Sebi - It seems you wrote those posts and then deleted them. I have restored them. You can keep the one you want. Hope this addresses this issue.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #4486
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    Thank you Q. I clicked on edit first time, and then I got the error. So I wrote again tried same steps and once again it got deleted, but I am sure I didn't click the delete post button. May be issue with the touch or the portal. Thank you for reverting it.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Hi Sebi - It seems you wrote those posts and then deleted them. I have restored them. You can keep the one you want. Hope this addresses this issue.

  12. #4487
    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Thank you Q. I clicked on edit first time, and then I got the error. So I wrote again tried same steps and once again it got deleted, but I am sure I didn't click the delete post button. May be issue with the touch or the portal. Thank you for reverting it.
    Sometimes when there are too many users active on the forum the forum software acts funny. Something to do with database locks! I am not going to even try to fix it. If I try it there is good probability I will mess up something else!!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  13. #4488
    Hello Gurus, anyone who has received GC recently in the past month, are interviews still happening.

  14. #4489
    Folks,
    I needed serious help in understanding the predicament which I am in. My PD is in August, 2010 and I submitted my I-485 on November 1st, 2020. My fingerprinting was done sometime in July, 2021. I have filed in EB-2 category. I had recently changed the employer (before the dates become current) hence I had applied for I-140 and I-485 concurrently when the PD became current (PERM approval was received during this time). My application is with Nebraska Service center. The estimated time range is 11 to 23.5 months for employment based applications for I-485 and the receipt date which they are processing currently is September 29th, 2019. How much time I will have to wait for the approval of I-485 and to receive GC? If I miss the chance to get GC in this FY, then how soon I can get it in next FY? Is there a way that I can at least get an EAD in the meantime? How I can escalate my application to level 2 as i have heard some folks are able to get it that way. Also would downgrading from EB2 to EB3 help in this situation? I am in a difficult situation and losing hope day by day. It's been 15 years since I have been fighting with this evil system with no end in sight. Any help, information you any give would help me in planning my next actions. Thank you very much.

  15. #4490
    Quote Originally Posted by optimista View Post
    How much time I will have to wait for the approval of I-485 and to receive GC?
    Is your i-140 approved? If not upgrade to premium processing may help expedite the overall process

    If I miss the chance to get GC in this FY, then how soon I can get it in next FY?
    Based on your PD, you are at no risk of retrogression. As such you are very close to getting the GC - matter of few weeks to months.

    Is there a way that I can at least get an EAD in the meantime?
    Yes, you will get the EAD for sure. Is your biometrics done already? EAD follows shortly after biometrics.

    How I can escalate my application to level 2 as i have heard some folks are able to get it that way.
    Well, escalations are possible only after your case is outside of normal processing times. Some people have had luck escalations through their local congressman/senators.

    Also would downgrading from EB2 to EB3 help in this situation?
    You are current for final action. Downgrade does not make any sense.
    Hang in there. Dont lose your mind over this. You are very close to done.

  16. #4491
    Thanks @bones20 so much for quick response.

    I really appreciate it. May be I missed it in my original post, but fortunately my I-140 is approved already (I did it in PP already at the time of concurrent filing). My biometrics was done in the beginning of last month, so yes it's done already. My USCIS account does not show the latest changes/updates for some reason but the agent did confirm with me once that it shows in the system as biometrics taken, so I am good there. my application is with Nebraska service centers and I am hearing horror stories about the very slow processing speed over there, hence was really in a low hope/morale condition.

    Your update definitely helps me keep my hopes and morale up. So thanks for that. Let me know if you have any additional comments to the information which I provided now. Thanks once again.

  17. #4492
    Quote Originally Posted by optimista View Post
    Thanks @bones20 so much for quick response.

    I really appreciate it. May be I missed it in my original post, but fortunately my I-140 is approved already (I did it in PP already at the time of concurrent filing). My biometrics was done in the beginning of last month, so yes it's done already. My USCIS account does not show the latest changes/updates for some reason but the agent did confirm with me once that it shows in the system as biometrics taken, so I am good there. my application is with Nebraska service centers and I am hearing horror stories about the very slow processing speed over there, hence was really in a low hope/morale condition.

    Your update definitely helps me keep my hopes and morale up. So thanks for that. Let me know if you have any additional comments to the information which I provided now. Thanks once again.
    Well, if at all, I think Nebraska is faster compared to say California (my FO). The only other thing which you may consider doing (do consider pros and cons - its a hit and miss with some downsides) is interfile i693 if you did not submit with i485:
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post82456

  18. #4493
    Hi @bones20,
    Thanks again for the response. The thing is unfortunately, I filed my medicals right with the application (thinking that it would help speed up processing) and now I hear that actually interfiling was a better option. What can I say? As usual regretting is all I can continue to do :-). Thanks anyways though for the suggestion.
    Regards

  19. #4494
    Quote Originally Posted by optimista View Post
    Hi @bones20,
    Thanks again for the response. The thing is unfortunately, I filed my medicals right with the application (thinking that it would help speed up processing) and now I hear that actually interfiling was a better option. What can I say? As usual regretting is all I can continue to do :-). Thanks anyways though for the suggestion.
    Regards
    I am not sure where you heard that interfiling medicals is better than filing with the original application. Although my situation was a little different (MSC), I got approved right away (filed medicals with 485 application) whereas some folks received an RFE for medicals and are still waiting to be approved. Folks trying to interfile medicals without an RFE have had different outcomes. Some got the medicals successfully "attached" to their 485 application, while some got RFE regardless and some are still trying to find out if medicals got attached. At this point there is not much you can do unless your petition is outside of USCIS published processing times. The only thing you can do is to do premium on your I-140 application, if you have not done so already. I know how you feel, I been there myself.
    Last edited by prepleo; 09-10-2021 at 08:46 AM.

  20. #4495
    Quote Originally Posted by optimista View Post
    Hi @bones20,
    Thanks again for the response. The thing is unfortunately, I filed my medicals right with the application (thinking that it would help speed up processing) and now I hear that actually interfiling was a better option. What can I say? As usual regretting is all I can continue to do :-). Thanks anyways though for the suggestion.
    Regards
    You are in a very good position compared to other AoS filers. Its just the impatience that is getting you. Ignore the GC mess and diatract yourself with other things. GC will happen very soon.

  21. #4496
    Quote Originally Posted by optimista View Post
    Folks,
    I needed serious help in understanding the predicament which I am in. My PD is in August, 2010 and I submitted my I-485 on November 1st, 2020. My fingerprinting was done sometime in July, 2021. I have filed in EB-2 category. I had recently changed the employer (before the dates become current) hence I had applied for I-140 and I-485 concurrently when the PD became current (PERM approval was received during this time). My application is with Nebraska Service center. The estimated time range is 11 to 23.5 months for employment based applications for I-485 and the receipt date which they are processing currently is September 29th, 2019. How much time I will have to wait for the approval of I-485 and to receive GC? If I miss the chance to get GC in this FY, then how soon I can get it in next FY? Is there a way that I can at least get an EAD in the meantime? How I can escalate my application to level 2 as i have heard some folks are able to get it that way. Also would downgrading from EB2 to EB3 help in this situation? I am in a difficult situation and losing hope day by day. It's been 15 years since I have been fighting with this evil system with no end in sight. Any help, information you any give would help me in planning my next actions. Thank you very much.

    You have shared details which are all over the place. On one you say you filed your case in Nov 1st 2020; you have filed your EAD, AP, Medicals all together which is good. But on other hand you say BM was done last month which is unusual for Nov filers. You also mentioned job change without any timeline? Perm approval happened but when??

    Many of the folks already responded; But you haven't shared what issue you are facing? IS there a threat of job loss? Kids aging out? Why you losing hope? without knowing actual cause of your worry, nobody here will be able to help you.

    Overall I can say - if your file is complete + BM are dones then you will get your GC anytime from Today to next 6-8 months. Trend I am seeing is after BM, GCs are approved around 6 months mark so just hang in there

  22. #4497
    Quote Originally Posted by prepleo View Post
    I am not sure where you heard that interfiling medicals is better than filing with the original application. Although my situation was a little different (MSC), I got approved right away (filed medicals with 485 application) whereas some folks received an RFE for medicals and are still waiting to be approved. Folks trying to interfile medicals without an RFE have had different outcomes. Some got the medicals successfully "attached" to their 485 application, while some got RFE regardless and some are still trying to find out if medicals got attached. At this point there is not much you can do unless your petition is outside of USCIS published processing times. The only thing you can do is to do premium on your I-140 application, if you have not done so already. I know how you feel, I been there myself.
    @prepleo,
    Thank you for your feedback and kind words of support. Really appreciate it. I already got I-140 approved in PP, so I am good there. Good to know your take/analysis on filing medicals. I guess I was basing my feelings/conclusions based on limited information.
    As you folks are suggesting, I will hold tight and wait patiently for the GC to arrive. Cheers.

  23. #4498
    Quote Originally Posted by bones20 View Post
    You are in a very good position compared to other AoS filers. Its just the impatience that is getting you. Ignore the GC mess and diatract yourself with other things. GC will happen very soon.
    Hi @bones20,
    Agree with your advice totally. Thanks for the support. I guess I will do my part more efficiently which is to wait patiently for the arrival of GC (hopefully soon). Thanks.

  24. #4499
    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    You have shared details which are all over the place. On one you say you filed your case in Nov 1st 2020; you have filed your EAD, AP, Medicals all together which is good. But on other hand you say BM was done last month which is unusual for Nov filers. You also mentioned job change without any timeline? Perm approval happened but when??

    Many of the folks already responded; But you haven't shared what issue you are facing? IS there a threat of job loss? Kids aging out? Why you losing hope? without knowing actual cause of your worry, nobody here will be able to help you.

    Overall I can say - if your file is complete + BM are dones then you will get your GC anytime from Today to next 6-8 months. Trend I am seeing is after BM, GCs are approved around 6 months mark so just hang in there
    @monsieur,
    Thank you for the reply.
    BM took time probably because I had filed I-140 concurrently. Else I don't know why it took time. Employment change had happened 2 years back. I was just explaining that my PERM got approved in October and the date become current in early November (hence I-140 had to filed concurrently). I-140 is already approved (I had done PP). Medical was sent in the first package for I-485, so that is not pending either. My job is safe, so no other issues, just that there is a lot of anxiety around this, hence wanted some pointers around the ETA so that I set right expectations.

    My mind is not all over the place now after reading feedback from multiple experts on this forum :-). So thank you and all others for the support. Cheers.

  25. #4500
    Quote Originally Posted by optimista View Post
    @monsieur,
    Thank you for the reply.
    BM took time probably because I had filed I-140 concurrently. Else I don't know why it took time. Employment change had happened 2 years back. I was just explaining that my PERM got approved in October and the date become current in early November (hence I-140 had to filed concurrently). I-140 is already approved (I had done PP). Medical was sent in the first package for I-485, so that is not pending either. My job is safe, so no other issues, just that there is a lot of anxiety around this, hence wanted some pointers around the ETA so that I set right expectations.

    My mind is not all over the place now after reading feedback from multiple experts on this forum :-). So thank you and all others for the support. Cheers.

    From time you file your case (I-485 + Medicals), on avg it takes 12-18 months. This timeline was from pre-pandemic and tsunami of filing in Oct 2020 might impact it. As i have stated current pattern is approval of case 4-6 months after BM is done. Upcoming year will also plenti of spillover, so folks who have applied this yr is in good shape. I get your frustration but don't loose hope, it will come when it comes. Just live your life.

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