EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[sjkumar]

OMG OMG i cant believe my eyes... i did not check the thread neither bulletin..Congrats to everybody who become current including me (June 21) .. this forum has been my emotional adda.. thank you everybody on this forum Q,Teddy,Veni thanks again ... everybody

[gregspirited]

I'm looking at Demand data from Sep 2011 and Oct 2011 and the numbers for EB2 IC are the same. If the PD moved from April to Jul in this VB why don't we see any reduced numbers in the demand data for year ending 2008. Any thoughts?

Also I have got an opportunity to move to a managerial position (from being an individual contributor) in another firm. Is it wise to move to that firm with my PD being Oct 18, 2007 or is it wise to wait for couple of more months before I can use EAD & AC21 (assuming I can apply 485 soon). Any suggestion is appreciated. Thanks

[mvinayam]

Congratulations to all who are current in Oct (including us 06/20/2007) .

Gurus, any one have any experience with interfiling between Spouse I-140. If so please suggest us the procedure & the time frame to get the GC. We have a pending I-485 (myslef Primary & husband as dependent EB3 Mar 2006 ). In october my husband's PD is current EB2 06/20/2007 & based on the discussions with the lawyers we are planning to do interfiling instead of filing secondary I-485 or revoing the pending I-485 & applying for new one. But not sure how long it will take us to get the GC & whether this is the best solution.

Any suggestions/ guidance will be very helpful.

Thanks & Regards,
mvinayam

[kd2008]

Considering PWMBs and porting demand probably would not show up in the demand data of documentarily qualified candidates immediately, do you guys think BTM will be 20K? 30K? 40K?

I don't know what you guys came to conclude on EB2ROW/EB1 backlog clearance from last year. Where do we stand on that?

Thanks for updating me!

[veni001]

Nishant that is wonderful .
Veni and Spec , how much do you guys think will be the intake 20K + porting ?

Kanmani,

If DOS/USCIS take FY2010 or FY2011 as reference then they need about 30K EB2IC in the pipeline for FY2012.

Which means at some points EB2IC should move to DEC2007, considering the processing times sooner the better to avoid any VISA wastage later in the FY.

[gchopeful123]

Looking at the footnotes within the Oct VB and anecdotal data on the date movements (FB/EB etc), do we think that the dates will move further in the Nov VB, possibly by another 3 months?

[iamdeb]

Congrats to all those who became current in this bulletin!! Great to see such movement after the September disappointment.The PWMB word will be history soon.
Is there any chance of the PD becoming 'Current' in the upcoming bulletins?

[Kanmani]

Veni,

Do you expect Apr 16 to Dec 2007 EB2IC total = 30K ?
Is it not way over compared to 2006 EB2IC total ? ( my total is 20K only excluding porting)

[veni001]

Veni,

Do you expect Apr 16 to Dec 2007 EB2IC total = 30K ?
Is it not way over compared to 2006 EB2IC total ? ( my total is 20K only excluding porting)

Kanmani,
If we add current known EB2IC demand to the projected demand based on I+C monthly PERM breakdown by Spec, that's about right not counting porting.

[suninphx]

Kanmani,
If we add current known EB2IC demand to the projected demand based on I+C monthly PERM breakdown by Spec, that's about right not counting porting.

Above is true with assumption that numbers from FY2012 have been used for this movement. I dont think we have confirmation yet thats being the case.

[murali83]

Above is true with assumption that numbers from FY2012 have been used for this movement. I dont think we have confirmation yet thats being the case.

Thats the issue. I really dont buy that story of EB1 and Eb2Row demand peaking suddenly and 12K looks a little steep anyway. I believe at least part of this 3 month movement is from 2011.

[sha_kus]

I am happy if they really pulled the 2010 numbers to 2011. But the question is can they really do it.

Thats the issue. I really dont buy that story of EB1 and Eb2Row demand peaking suddenly and 12K looks a little steep anyway. I believe at least part of this 3 month movement is from 2011.

[gcq]

I am happy if they really pulled the 2010 numbers to 2011. But the question is can they really do it.

Isn't this what people are asking for, the recapture of unused visas from previous year ? AFAIK this is not a law yet and CO has crossed the boundaries.

[qblogfan]

S said the total demand before Dec 2007 is 20k without porting number. Please refer to S's post several days ago.

If they want 30k, they have to move the PD to April 2008.

Here is from S's estimation:

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Kanmani,

If DOS/USCIS take FY2010 or FY2011 as reference then they need about 30K EB2IC in the pipeline for FY2012.

Which means at some points EB2IC should move to DEC2007, considering the processing times sooner the better to avoid any VISA wastage later in the FY.

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani,

If DOS/USCIS take FY2010 or FY2011 as reference then they need about 30K EB2IC in the pipeline for FY2012.

Which means at some points EB2IC should move to DEC2007, considering the processing times sooner the better to avoid any VISA wastage later in the FY.

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you.

Another thing to add is that CO may see how the demand increases in October. If the increase is small, he may move the PD much further to get more demand.

I suspect the increase will not be too much, maybe 2k-3k based on the previous data analysis.

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.

[qesehmk]

The way I try to get around this problem is by pasting image OR using "Courier" font.

Q pls help me how to paste contents of the table in the post . Mine looks ugly

[TeddyKoochu]

Frustratingly on iphone keyboard I have generated this table of FB intake approach last year, so that we may see inspiration to EB which looks like similar this year.

VB--F2A--F2B

Sep 2010--01Jan10--01Jan05
Oct 2010--01Apr10--01Apr05
Nov 2010--01Jun10--01Jun05
Dec 2010--01Aug10--01Jun05
Jan 2011--01Jan08--15Apr03
Sep 2011--01Dec08--01Jul03
Oct 2011--08Jan09--15Jul03

So it does look like DOS is familiar with the game of taking intake in Q1 and then retro in Q2.

Nishant this is great typing and a great analysis & find, looks like USCIS & DOS truly believe in actual filings only which would be 485 data in our case.

[rinku1112]

Seriously. This happened with somebody I know who told me this. This person had C1D1 which limits you to the port of call. But this person was travelling within US and got caught by an io who gave this guy 24 hours to leave US. Luckily another IO followed this person and gave him a B1 in his visa on the spot and told him that an IO has powers and nobody can object him in his exercise of those powers. But just like he has the power to object to you not having a visa, I have the power to give you the visa. And he got one.

True or false or hyperbole. I don't know. But this is something I learnt first hand. Regardless of truth, it helps to understand that just like the whole immigration process, even after you get GC, some of the government agencies always have discretionary powers. Its always useful to keep smiling and avoid pissing off an IO to the extent possible.

In this case one can go to nearest US consulate ti get their passport stamped with IV. In the event GC approved but the individual not able to get his/her passport stamped with IV, usually IO issue parole at POE.

Thanks Q and Veni. I checked this morning with my company lawyer and she said I should not have any issues travelling as well and I got teh same information as I got here from all of you. You guys are the best... Thanks and keep up the great work.

[soggadu]

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.

Big T, when you say "this year"... r u talking about 2011 or fiscal year 2012?

[TeddyKoochu]

Big T, when you say "this year"... r u talking about 2011 or fiscal year 2012?

Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.

[pch053]

Nishant this is great typing and a great analysis & find, looks like USCIS & DOS truly believe in actual filings only which would be 485 data in our case.

If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.

[cool_mj007]

Great conversation team, very insightful and logical. I have been following for a few months now and finally decided to register. I look forward to continue receiving the valuable information and much needed support from the group.
Cheers!

[Gclongwait]

If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.

That's the million$ question. I think we need to wait till Oct inventory is out and also to see if ppl with pre-adjudicated I485 are getting visas in Oct. Right now nobody knows for sure what this is.

[Jitesh]

Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.

You mean dates are expected to move to move to only Oct -2007 till Sep 2012?Only 3 months movement in a year?