EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[qesehmk]

Discrimination is not as difficult to figure out. It is in your face only if you are willing to see it. DOS and/or USCIS ever since 2008 have actively worked their way through all ROW backlog in PERM I-140 and 485 and later on in CP too. They have consistently prioritized everybody else of India and China backlogs. They have interpreted laws in a manner that has hurt EBIC e.g. in the old days they would interpret spillover vertical until courts forced them to do spillover within category before they could give visas to next category same country. Even right now they have been interpreting country limit across EB and FB and conveniently giving away more visas to non backlogged countries just to starve EB-IC. On top of all of this they have plainly wasted thousands of visas even in non-covid years. Now when COVID presents a huge opportunity then they are wasting not one or two thousands but 50-100 thousands. This is clear bias.

So other than country cap this bias has significantly hurt EBIC.

Discrimination is subjective and difficult to factor into anything, and does extend to all walks of life. Walking into a club is different for a person of color vs a white person, for example.

But yes I can see how admin delays could affect EB1's (and ROW for that matter) since they are current and even a few weeks or months is substantial for them ( But again the admin delays can be linked to resource management with is tied directly to the budget and will of the administration/Congress) . Most people here and in the backlog are not EB1's and my point was more from a decade or more of wait time that people have experienced and are frustrated by, and that is only because of the flawed law and the inability and lack of will of Congress to change it or better the system.

[gammaray]

Discrimination is not as difficult to figure out. It is in your face only if you are willing to see it. DOS and/or USCIS ever since 2008 have actively worked their way through all ROW backlog in PERM I-140 and 485 and later on in CP too. They have consistently prioritized everybody else of India and China backlogs. They have interpreted laws in a manner that has hurt EBIC e.g. in the old days they would interpret spillover vertical until courts forced them to do spillover within category before they could give visas to next category same country. Even right now they have been interpreting country limit across EB and FB and conveniently giving away more visas to non backlogged countries just to starve EB-IC. On top of all of this they have plainly wasted thousands of visas even in non-covid years. Now when COVID presents a huge opportunity then they are wasting not one or two thousands but 50-100 thousands. This is clear bias.

So other than country cap this bias has significantly hurt EBIC.

Are you saying there is directive, an internal memo, from USCIS or DHS directing employees to be biased against Indians and Chinese applicants? Or are the individual employees when coming across a Indian/Chinese case decide to shelve it on their own accord and concentrate on ROW? Maybe you have more information than I do. I only know what the law says regarding spillovers within categories and how things should be processed and trust the USCIS is following that protocol, unless someone presents actual proof of the contrary.

The simple explanation could be imo that as with all government agencies in most countries, they are not 100% efficient. So even in a normal year there is 5-10% loss in efficiency which in a covid year with substantially more applications, the efficiency is obviously much lower.

[qesehmk]

Are you saying there is directive, an internal memo, from USCIS or DHS directing employees to be biased against Indians and Chinese applicants? Or are the individual employees when coming across a Indian/Chinese case decide to shelve it on their own accord and concentrate on ROW? Maybe you have more information than I do. I only know what the law says regarding spillovers within categories and how things should be processed and trust the USCIS is following that protocol, unless someone presents actual proof of the contrary.

The simple explanation could be imo that as with all government agencies in most countries, they are not 100% efficient. So even in a normal year there is 5-10% loss in efficiency which in a covid year with substantially more applications, the efficiency is obviously much lower.

I am saying there is all this circumstantial evidence of these two agencies prioritizing ALL OTHER applications over EB-IC backlog. I do not believe that is coincidence magic or happenstance.

p.s. - And by the way does or did KKK issue memos to discriminate/lynch blacks? No. That's now how world works.

[Waiting4GC]

Are you saying there is directive, an internal memo, from USCIS or DHS directing employees to be biased against Indians and Chinese applicants? Or are the individual employees when coming across a Indian/Chinese case decide to shelve it on their own accord and concentrate on ROW? Maybe you have more information than I do. I only know what the law says regarding spillovers within categories and how things should be processed and trust the USCIS is following that protocol, unless someone presents actual proof of the contrary.

The simple explanation could be imo that as with all government agencies in most countries, they are not 100% efficient. So even in a normal year there is 5-10% loss in efficiency which in a covid year with substantially more applications, the efficiency is obviously much lower.

One can choose to turn a blind eye and see everything green. Or you can accept the fact that USCIS knew at least a year in advance that they will need the capacity to process 250K visas. You can tell yourself what actions they took in light of that knowledge. The proof is in the pudding and we all know they only processed 40K visas out of 260K in the first two quarters. Now they have advance knowledge of some potential legislation and you see what action they are taking in light of that knowledge. They are proactive and blocking the advantage to EB-I candidates in anticipation of that knowledge. If one does not see the bias in their actions depending upon it is pro or against EB-ICs interests, I am not sure how can anyone convince.

[gammaray]

I am saying there is all this circumstantial evidence of these two agencies prioritizing ALL OTHER applications over EB-IC backlog. I do not believe that is coincidence magic or happenstance.

p.s. - And by the way does or did KKK issue memos to discriminate/lynch blacks? No. That's now how world works.

So every employee of USCIS like the KKK is white and racist and biased against a particular community. Got it.

[gammaray]

One can choose to turn a blind eye and see everything green. Or you can accept the fact that USCIS knew at least a year in advance that they will need the capacity to process 250K visas. You can tell yourself what actions they took in light of that knowledge. The proof is in the pudding and we all know they only processed 40K visas out of 260K in the first two quarters. Now they have advance knowledge of some potential legislation and you see what action they are taking in light of that knowledge. They are proactive and blocking the advantage to EB-I candidates in anticipation of that knowledge. If one does not see the bias in their actions depending upon it is pro or against EB-ICs interests, I am not sure how can anyone convince.

At least an year? The pandemic began in March/April of 2020 with things shutting down in May. The financial year started in October 2021. Even if they somehow foresaw the additional visas on Day 1 of the pandemic, that's 5 months, the pandemic was still raging with work places shut down and everyone adjusting to working remotely. And you do realize which administration was in charge for the first quarter and a month right? And appointees of that administration still in charge for a longer period after the administration was gone.

[qesehmk]

So every employee of USCIS like the KKK is white and racist and biased against a particular community. Got it.

That's what you understood? Ok.

[gammaray]

That's what you understood? Ok.

Well yeah, you brought up the comparison with KKK and how they don't need memo's or directives. So a government agency and thus individual employees must be similar in there inherent racism to act as group without any directive and target a particular community.

[qesehmk]

Well yeah, you brought up the comparison with KKK and how they don't need memo's or directives. So a government agency must be similar in there inherent racism to act as group without any directive and target a particular community.

You missed the part that America is bigger than KKK and that a government agency can have a strong bias without every single of its members being discriminatory. The problem with you is that you are only interested in arguing rather than understanding. I gave you very specific reasons of why I think those agencies seem to have significant bias. And you get into silly arguments. What's the point?

[3nov10]

So every employee of USCIS like the KKK is white and racist and biased against a particular community. Got it.

Well may be not full KKK, but atleat KK .

Jokes aside it is extremely easy to introduce bias. Law are specifically created in a way that is easy to manipulate them by the people who know them.

A blond young girl with a french accent, driving 15 miles above speed limit might get away with a warning, but a fat, balding Indian man will definitely get a ticket. It's not because the officer is a card holding member of KKK but this is just how the world works.

Interpretation of spill over is definitely biased against Indians, just looking at the past applications of the same law shows that.

Did the law change to make USCIS accept medicals from last 2 years to 4 years old. We can go on making such in favor/ against arguments.

The bias is clear and it shows. It is very easy to introduce it at top level and it will follow through downstream without effort, no matter how "Woke" or "racist" an officer is, they can't bypass instructions.

[vsivarama]

I am not sure what law he's breaking. It is his discretion to implement the date ranges when he wants to, based on his judgement and the data.

He "believes" 100K will be wasted? If he can take into account *potential* wastage (and it's potential till he gets the actual numbers in Oct--- which is my entire point) to set future dates, why can't he take into account potential legislation (especially if he is privy to inside information that the legislation is a real possibility)? His end goal is balancing maximizing utilization of available visa's and also prevent any visa retrogression which would look extremely bad and burn a lot of people.

I disagree whole heartedly with this statement. It is not his discretion to implement the date ranges when he wants to if it's in direct violation of the prevailing law (no amount of discussion in this topic is going to change my mind as it's a very black/white issue for me). Yes, if the new legislation passes before Sept 30th it's a different discussion. Charlie can use his discretion as long as he is operating within the confines of the law. Unused FB numbers spillover to EB and unused EB numbers spillover to FB. That is the current law of the land. He should have idea about accurate unused numbers by mid October, He definitely will have an approximate estimate by mid September. He can take into account potential wastage but he should not be taking into account potential legislation (at least not until it is ratified). If he has the authority to do so why does he not comment on pending legislation in chat with charlie? No congressman can question him if he follows the prevailing law at the time. But people can hold him into account for not following the prevailing law. So what if Meng amendment does not pass and he is forced to move dates at a later time. Isn't he not now complicit in breaking the law and wasting more visa numbers on top of that?

[Waiting4GC]

At least an year? The pandemic began in March/April of 2020. The financial year started in October 2021. Even if they somehow foresaw the additional visas on Day 1 of the pandemic, that's 5 months, the pandemic was still raging with work places shut down and everyone adjusting to working remotely. And you do realize which administration was in charge for the first quarter and a month right? And appointees of that administration still in charge for a longer period after the administration was gone.

Are you saying the USCIS cared for EB-I candidates during the previous administration OR that USICS did not care for EB-I because of the previous administration? Either way, USCIS did not care for EB-I candidates and that is the point. No one cares for EB-India candidates.

The new administration is no different at all either and maybe even worse in some aspects. They are not only are proposing the amendment to stop spillover which will directly harm EB-I candidates, but they are being proactive in not spilling over the visas to FY22 as per the existing law even though the amendment is not yet passed. Leave aside this administration sitting duck on Eagle or any other legislation to remove the country cap.

[JoinedToAsk]

I have a strong hypothesis based on 1) EB1 forum (e.g. a lot MSC21903,4,7,8 series are getting processed) and 2) Telegram data that shows that EB1s (highly correlated) with received date in Feb/March are prioritized these days.

Assuming I am right, does anyone know why this could be the case?

I thought about a couple of possibilities:

1) Prioritize EB1 to get a sense of spillover to EB2 -> EB3. This means that Aug will be for EB1, and Sept will be for EB2/3. Meaning, reduce EB1India backlog then focus on EB2 or EB3. > In this case, there is some chance for EB2/3 in Sept 2021.

2) Allocate as many visas as possible to EB1 (and maybe FB) until 9/30. This means that EB2/3 might or not get visas, even though they are current or there are slots available. Meaning, the sole purpose is to minimize the wastage of EB1. > In this case, there is almost no chance for EB2/3 to get green before 9/30.

Why am I asking this question? I've received I485J about a month ago. I see a lot of Eb2/3 who have sent RFEs (and confirmed received) in June and are yet to get green.

Any thoughts?

[gammaray]

You missed the part that America is bigger than KKK and that a government agency can have a strong bias without every single of its members being discriminatory. The problem with you is that you are only interested in arguing rather than understanding. I gave you very specific reasons of why I think those agencies seem to have significant bias. And you get into silly arguments. What's the point?

Not interested in arguing. And I don't see any specific reasons mentioned anywhere for significant systematic bias to understand anything. Just mention of circumstantial (or anecdotal?) evidence of the bias. Does the fact that EB1C-I is the most abused category have anything to do with the agency specifically targeting a category? I guess that will never be considered just targeted inherent bias.

[qesehmk]

Not interested in arguing. And I don't see any specific reasons mentioned anywhere for significant systematic bias to understand anything. Just mention of circumstantial (or anecdotal?) evidence of the bias. Does the fact that EB1C-I is the most abused category have anything to do with the agency specifically targeting a category? I guess that will never be considered just targeted inherent bias.

I have no time for this. Good luck. I have mentioned very very specific systemic elimination of PERM 140 485 and CP backlogs as well as spillover and country cap interpretations - not to mention prior visa wastage and potentially 6 figure wastage. Other people can mention all other rules around medicals and all kinds of useless RFEs from people who are practically now US citizens having lived 2 decades in this country. And you think this not indication of bias.

Good luck to you.

[Positive]

USCIS was working remotely from the very beginning. https://fcw.com/articles/2020/03/10/...k-russell.aspx I have not heard of recruitment or efficiency going down among any remote workers. I remember when USCIS employees were begging on social media about saving their jobs. https://www.govexec.com/workforce/20...t-week/166096/ And then dates were moved ahead for EBI and USCIS became flush with cash again.While those who perpetrate injuctice and unfairness obviously cause harm, those who remain silent in the face of injustice aren't blameless. The most harmful are those among the oppressed who join ranks with opressors in justifying the oppression. Clarence Thomas comes to mind. History is replete with such unscrupolous characters.

[FarAwayfromGC]

Not interested in arguing. And I don't see any specific reasons mentioned anywhere for significant systematic bias to understand anything. Just mention of circumstantial (or anecdotal?) evidence of the bias. Does the fact that EB1C-I is the most abused category have anything to do with the agency specifically targeting a category? I guess that will never be considered just targeted inherent bias.

Looking at your response and arguments, you seem like one of those who do not understand what is "biased against XXXX". Significant systematic bias is existent in US from long time, you should read US history to see specific reasons for significant systematic bias and also read about Civil war, if you still don't understand what is "systematic bias" then don't worry , the reading will anyway help for your Citizenship exam.

[maverick2010]

Friends,

My I-485 case changed to "New Card is Being Produced " today. This happy news didn't give me enough happiness since my new employer has not filed I-485J yet(It's been 6 weeks since I joined) - I'm little worried now. Can you please let me know filing I-485J in next couple of days or before I receive the physical card in hand is good enough?

Thank you!

[gammaray]

I will post one last time without responding to anyone particular so no one feels obligated to write back.

USCIS processing includes third party sites like lockboxes and biometric centers that are integral to the process and can't be done remotely. Applications have to be processed physically at lockboxes; letters, rfe's have to be mailed physically by someone.

But people want to believe its racism or bias that's the cause of administrative delay for all of EB-I categories, and some piling on to just EB1C-I. Widespread abuse in EB1C couldn't possibly be the reason why certain category of people are issued more RFE's or scrutinized more. I must really be stupid (yes I read that) to even think that. Hell American history has is it, and there was a civil war, so it must be true. Hence proved.

[vsivarama]

Friends,

My I-485 case changed to "New Card is Being Produced " today. This happy news didn't give me enough happiness since my new employer has not filed I-485J yet(It's been 6 weeks since I joined) - I'm little worried now. Can you please let me know filing I-485J in next couple of days or before I receive the physical card in hand is good enough?

Thank you!

Congrats Maverick!!! All the best for your future!!

[gammaray]

Friends,

My I-485 case changed to "New Card is Being Produced " today. This happy news didn't give me enough happiness since my new employer has not filed I-485J yet(It's been 6 weeks since I joined) - I'm little worried now. Can you please let me know filing I-485J in next couple of days or before I receive the physical card in hand is good enough?

Thank you!

I would think updating the USCIS file for accurate information would be advisable to avoid possible issues during naturalization. You definitely need to check with your legal advisor for the way forward asap. Good luck.

[maverick2010]

I would think updating the USCIS file for accurate information would be advisable to avoid possible issues during naturalization. You definitely need to check with your legal advisor for the way forward asap. Good luck.

My lawfirm named Fman and my employer legal counsel is not recommending to send I-485J now. I'm trying to convince them - not a good situation to be in after 20 plus years of waiting.

[skpanda]

Interesting, mine (and a few folks I know) was 30 days, and specifically had language mentioning the Sept 30 deadline for FY21.

Hmm... no language about Sept 30.

What is ur PD and when did you file ur application. May be ur PD is earlier than mine so the urgency.

[vsivarama]

My lawfirm named Fman and my employer legal counsel is not recommending to send I-485J now. I'm trying to convince them - not a good situation to be in after 20 plus years of waiting.

I do not think it is going to be that big of a deal here. I have never heard of a case where someone could not naturalize or had the GC revoked because of job change just before or after GC. If you want to be absolutely in the clear then apply for naturalization after 5 years are complete on your GC.

[ImmiGiveMe]

Guys, let the sleeping dog lie .. on the bias and non bias...but the take away for me reading all this has been some nice words added to my vocabulary