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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #4351
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Those are interesting and impressive numbers but again one has to dissect them by case types and priority date and country categories and then somehow also normalize that across all years to figure out your samples vs true population to figure out what's going on. I used to do all that using trackitt data. That's how this whole thread came about.

    But now I don't even use trackitt frankly. In fact I stopped doing manual effort.

    The problem with any such data is it is so temporal and ridden with hidden follies that it becomes useless.

    That's my last on this topic. I don't mean to trash their effort at all. So please don't read it as such. All I am saying is - having data is good. But then people need to also process it the right way to come to conclusions. And if you think based on that data that 485s are not being processed fast enough - that's a fair comment. I can't subscribe to that view. I do think USCIS is on its way to process 200K cases this year and that's substantial processing considering we saw literally nothing until Trump got out of the office. In other words if Biden was president in Oct 2020, we could have seen fulll utilizations of quote.

    It also means that for next year I am now much more bullish. There is going to be a ton of new numbers for 2022!!
    You don't need PD etc. The pattern is very clear - they are processing in order of Receipt number.

    And yes, as someone said above, most of the increase has been at MSC/FOs. SRC and LIN have seen no improvement other than that they are slowly starting to work on FY21 cases as they, or at least LIN, clear out the backlog from prior years.

  2. #4352
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    YES. They are tracking all 200k EB filings and also FB and IR filings received in October 2020. And same for years before that and months after that
    .
    Great. So what's the insight? How many visas will be utilized at current rate?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  3. #4353
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    I think 170k visa's will be utilized. 90K wastage unless USCIS assigns visa number for DQ'ed non adjudicated applicants.

  4. #4354
    Quote Originally Posted by Alunity View Post
    I think 170k visa's will be utilized. 90K wastage unless USCIS assigns visa number for DQ'ed non adjudicated applicants.
    I know a lot of medical RFE's have been issued in the last few weeks, even to folks who's dates are not current (but expected to in the near future) -- with a response required in 30 days (early September) rather than the usual 87 days. This seems like an attempt to maximize visa number allotment, though not sure how it will be implemented.
    Last edited by gammaray; 08-18-2021 at 01:02 PM.

  5. #4355
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Those are interesting and impressive numbers but again one has to dissect them by case types and priority date and country categories and then somehow also normalize that across all years to figure out your samples vs true population to figure out what's going on. I used to do all that using trackitt data. That's how this whole thread came about.

    But now I don't even use trackitt frankly. In fact I stopped doing manual effort.

    The problem with any such data is it is so temporal and ridden with hidden follies that it becomes useless.

    That's my last on this topic. I don't mean to trash their effort at all. So please don't read it as such. All I am saying is - having data is good. But then people need to also process it the right way to come to conclusions. And if you think based on that data that 485s are not being processed fast enough - that's a fair comment. I can't subscribe to that view. I do think USCIS is on its way to process 200K cases this year and that's substantial processing considering we saw literally nothing until Trump got out of the office. In other words if Biden was president in Oct 2020, we could have seen fulll utilizations of quote.

    It also means that for next year I am now much more bullish. There is going to be a ton of new numbers for 2022!!
    @Q: It seems USCIS is processing ~2K apps per day. With ~30 days to go, at least 100K will be wasted. All portals seem to be accurate because their numbers are in the ballpark i.e. ~2K/day. Moreover, the chances of all of them being wrong are small because they are all tracking FY20 and FY21 applications, which cover entire 'official processing times' for each FO. What they have done is truly incredible. This type of stuff should ideally come from the official channels.

    Moreover, we can see that the processing picked up in June/July. Before this, everyone was sleeping. This wouldn't have happened if proactive attempts were made to absorb the spillover. Some field offices are still sleeping.

  6. #4356
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Great. So what's the insight? How many visas will be utilized at current rate?
    100k waste probably.

  7. #4357
    Quote Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk View Post
    @Q: It seems USCIS is processing ~2K apps per day. With ~30 days to go, at least 100K will be wasted.
    Thanks. @2K per day for Jun to Sep would be 170K visas over and top the 90K that USCIS usually would have processed. That would mean almost zero wastage. So we can easily rule out 100K wastage.
    Quote Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk View Post
    the processing picked up in June/July. Before this, everyone was sleeping. This wouldn't have happened if proactive attempts were made to absorb the spillover. Some field offices are still sleeping.
    I do think the processing picked up after in May WhereismyGC first officially declared wastage of 56K. Then lawyers started talking about it. Then in June CO came out in June and made noise about 100K. Because of this or may be not - but Biden admin must have stepped pressure and processing picked up speed. It is unfortunate that we still might see ~55K wastage IMHO. But it won't be 100K.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  8. #4358
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thanks. @2K per day for Jun to Sep would be 170K visas over and top the 90K that USCIS usually would have processed. That would mean almost zero wastage. So we can easily rule out 100K wastage.

    I do think the processing picked up after in May WhereismyGC first officially declared wastage of 56K. Then lawyers started talking about it. Then in June CO came out in June and made noise about 100K. Because of this or may be not - but Biden admin must have stepped pressure and processing picked up speed. It is unfortunate that we still might see ~55K wastage IMHO. But it won't be 100K.
    No Q. 2K per day started around 7/27. Before that it was between 500 and 1000/day, of which 60-80% were FY20 receipt approvals. Moreover, this is only MSC. TSC and LIN are still between 30 and 90/day.

  9. #4359
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    Approval of ~2k per day I-485 applications dose not mean that all 2k are EB. In Q4 we have 64 working days. So, total (~128K) I-485 approvals can happen and in that god knows how many will be EB.

    Given USCIS penchant to approve FB more than EB, so any number less than 100K wastage is a blessing.

  10. #4360
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    Q - You said that you won't comment anymore, but you can't escape so easily. We look up to you, Spec , and others for key insights.

    While I am a novice and not as experienced as some of you folks, but I have some calculations too (based on trend, viewpoints, telegram Chinese charts, USCiS statement s), and the end result comes close to what Q is saying.. around 50-60k wastage.

    Here's the insight that I am getting ..
    1. Q1 and Q2 EB approved = 46000
    2. Charlie said in mid July that around 100k will be wasted, so based on data he had for Q3 and expected speed on Q4, he was expecting around 100k to be processed in Q3 and Q4.
    I am assuming that he based it with a consideration of 40k for Q3 and 60k for Q4. I took this split considering that we saw more trend of approval in July which is part of Q3.
    So I am considering Q1+Q2 = 46000, Q3 ~40000.

    3. Towards end of July, there was a sudden change of pace. We started seeing lots of approval posts. Saw my friends getting GCd around/after this. Telegram charts showing similar trend as well. Considering this trend of 1.5/2k per day, Q4 should get around 100-110k EB approval.

    So Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 ~ 190K to 200K

    USCIS said that they expect max approval since 2005, so they expect approval below or around 200k which is in similar line. If they expected 150k approval then I feel they wouldn't have given reference of 2005.

    I so hope that max and maX gets approved. Wife's eb2 is 2014 Dec and mine 2015 June, and both changed job so new process needs to be started ..

    Note - Tomorrow we have Charlie's chat, so I am sure we will have a much clearer data tomorrow, and I hope we get some positive insights.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Thanks. @2K per day for Jun to Sep would be 170K visas over and top the 90K that USCIS usually would have processed. That would mean almost zero wastage. So we can easily rule out 100K wastage.

    I do think the processing picked up after in May WhereismyGC first officially declared wastage of 56K. Then lawyers started talking about it. Then in June CO came out in June and made noise about 100K. Because of this or may be not - but Biden admin must have stepped pressure and processing picked up speed. It is unfortunate that we still might see ~55K wastage IMHO. But it won't be 100K.

  11. #4361
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    Hello Q and other experts,

    Considering tomorrow's chat with Charlie, want some help again,

    1. My son's 14 and not a citizen. So that's an important criterion
    2. My PD is EB2 Jan 22 2014 India

    Earlier I was planning on downgrading to Eb3 come visa bulletin (My company won't downgrade until my PD is current in EB3). However, seeing the delay in I140 processing, rejection in PP and then even if 140 gets approved, delays in getting AOS approved, I was thinking whether I should stay put in Eb2. Based on how things are going, per my calculations I think EB2 FAD may be between Oct 2014 - March 2015 for fiscal year 2022.

    Any thoughts whether I am going the right way. Or should i go via the downgrade, PP and wait for 485 approval? I want to get my son out of this mess asap considering he is already starting his high school this year.

    Will also wait to see what Charlie has to say tomorrow,


    Appreciate your inputs as always !

  12. #4362
    Quote Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk View Post
    No Q. 2K per day started around 7/27. Before that it was between 500 and 1000/day, of which 60-80% were FY20 receipt approvals. Moreover, this is only MSC. TSC and LIN are still between 30 and 90/day.
    Quote Originally Posted by ImmiGiveMe View Post
    Approval of ~2k per day I-485 applications dose not mean that all 2k are EB. In Q4 we have 64 working days. So, total (~128K) I-485 approvals can happen and in that god knows how many will be EB.
    See this is why I am so hesitant to comment on other people's data. I have never visited any of these websites and I have no clue what they do and how they do it.

    So I am sorry I can't take this discussion further.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  13. #4363
    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Q - You said that you won't comment anymore, but you can't escape so easily.
    I am a very gullible person who can easily be goaded into a conversation
    I do agree with your analysis. Because of USCIS/DOS' opacity the grounds of assumptions are always shaky. But with the available information I am leaning towards 200K usage.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #4364
    Quote Originally Posted by Immig7 View Post
    Hello Q and other experts,

    Considering tomorrow's chat with Charlie, want some help again,

    1. My son's 14 and not a citizen. So that's an important criterion
    2. My PD is EB2 Jan 22 2014 India

    Earlier I was planning on downgrading to Eb3 come visa bulletin (My company won't downgrade until my PD is current in EB3). However, seeing the delay in I140 processing, rejection in PP and then even if 140 gets approved, delays in getting AOS approved, I was thinking whether I should stay put in Eb2. Based on how things are going, per my calculations I think EB2 FAD may be between Oct 2014 - March 2015 for fiscal year 2022.

    Any thoughts whether I am going the right way. Or should i go via the downgrade, PP and wait for 485 approval? I want to get my son out of this mess asap considering he is already starting his high school this year.

    Will also wait to see what Charlie has to say tomorrow,


    Appreciate your inputs as always !
    If you can downgrade / upgrade - always do it without waiting. My understanding is that - in reality down or upgrading is filing yet another application for green card in other category. So if your sponsor is willing to do that - just do it.

    As per which category will move faster or slower - i will let others chime in.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  15. #4365
    Quote Originally Posted by Immig7 View Post
    Hello Q and other experts,

    Considering tomorrow's chat with Charlie, want some help again,

    1. My son's 14 and not a citizen. So that's an important criterion
    2. My PD is EB2 Jan 22 2014 India

    Earlier I was planning on downgrading to Eb3 come visa bulletin (My company won't downgrade until my PD is current in EB3). However, seeing the delay in I140 processing, rejection in PP and then even if 140 gets approved, delays in getting AOS approved, I was thinking whether I should stay put in Eb2. Based on how things are going, per my calculations I think EB2 FAD may be between Oct 2014 - March 2015 for fiscal year 2022.

    Any thoughts whether I am going the right way. Or should i go via the downgrade, PP and wait for 485 approval? I want to get my son out of this mess asap considering he is already starting his high school this year.

    Will also wait to see what Charlie has to say tomorrow,


    Appreciate your inputs as always !
    If I were you, I will downgrade and not speculate as soon as the filing date is current. You may absolutely want to ensure you file concurrently in the same month too. Never take anything for granted with USCIS and its all about getting the Pprwrk. in reasonably good order ASAP to them with a sense of urgency. Wishing the very best for you and your son and I really hope you are able to freeze his legal age in coming months. I think for our PD its really tough to predict which category will move the fastest though, I somehow believe it will still be EB3 ahead of EB2 atleast for all of Q1 in fiscal 2022. But take this as just my personal opinion and please do your research.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 08-19-2021 at 08:55 AM.

  16. #4366
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    Did anyone attend Charlie's talk today ?

  17. #4367
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    Looks like there will be no movement of dates in Oct 21 VB.. On wastage, he did not say anything about less wastage than expected before....

  18. #4368
    If Jan 1 2014 is the EB3I final action date for Sept. 2021 & March 1 2014 is the filing date for Oct 2021, it follows that USCIS will be wasting nearly ALL extra EB visas for this year - Jan 1 2014 indicates the priority date for which visas are available now. March 2014 (filing date Oct 21 VB) indicates priority dates for which visas are expected to be availble by end of 2022 fiscal/Sept 2022. Note that the Extra visas for next fiscal are expected to be higher accounting for the extra 2 month movement.

  19. #4369
    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    Did anyone attend Charlie's talk today ?
    It is a complete waste of time. He sounds like a propagandist for USCIS, giving umpteen excuses for why visas are being wasted by them. When he refuses to answer specific questions that fall in the USCIS domain, his volunteering on the extent of visa wastage by USCIS and perfectly reasonable reasons thereof makes him the lowest of the lowly scums that inhabit the US government immigration machinery.

  20. #4370
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    If Jan 1 2014 is the EB3I final action date for Sept. 2021 & March 1 2014 is the filing date for Oct 2021, it follows that USCIS will be wasting nearly ALL extra EB visas for this year - Jan 1 2014 indicates the priority date for which visas are available now. March 2014 (filing date Oct 21 VB) indicates priority dates for which visas are expected to be availble by end of 2022 fiscal/Sept 2022. Note that the Extra visas for next fiscal are expected to be higher accounting for the extra 2 month movement.
    This is not accurate. Extra 2 months of FD movement is not for the "extra visas". FD of March 2014 was not set based on what spillover for FY 2022 is expected. Those calculations only happen after the spillover actually happens i.e. in Oct/Nov of the new fiscal. As CO mentioned FD movement projects out 8-12 months (or 6-8 months in the future if the applicants are quicker in responding to RFE, etc.).

  21. #4371
    Quote Originally Posted by gammaray View Post
    This is not accurate. Extra 2 months of FD movement is not for the "extra visas". FD of March 2014 was not set based on what spillover for FY 2022 is expected. Those calculations only happen after the spillover actually happens i.e. in Oct/Nov of the new fiscal. As CO mentioned FD movement projects out 8-12 months (or 6-8 months in the future if the applicants are quicker in responding to RFE, etc.).
    When did they set filing date of Jan 1 2015 for EB3 in 2021 fiscal year?

  22. #4372
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    When did they set filing date of Jan 1 2015 for EB3 in 2021 fiscal year?
    I'm assuming that's rhetorical. Because it was October and not August or September.

  23. #4373
    Quote Originally Posted by gammaray View Post
    This is not accurate. Extra 2 months of FD movement is not for the "extra visas". FD of March 2014 was not set based on what spillover for FY 2022 is expected. Those calculations only happen after the spillover actually happens i.e. in Oct/Nov of the new fiscal. As CO mentioned FD movement projects out 8-12 months (or 6-8 months in the future if the applicants are quicker in responding to RFE, etc.).
    I give you Oct 2020 visa bulletin filing dates:https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ober-2020.html

  24. #4374
    yeah, and Charlie said the filing date for OCt 2021 VB will be March 2014.

  25. #4375
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    It is a complete waste of time. He sounds like a propagandist for USCIS, giving umpteen excuses for why visas are being wasted by them. When he refuses to answer specific questions that fall in the USCIS domain, his volunteering on the extent of visa wastage by USCIS and perfectly reasonable reasons thereof makes him the lowest of the lowly scums that inhabit the US government immigration machinery.
    My impression is that USCIS showed CO who is the boss long time back when they flat out refused to honor his 485 filing dates. He may be a good guy but now his role relative to visa control is more administrative than ever.

    Generally speaking US has developed a white man's sub-culture that is utterly afraid of Indian men who they would like to treat like black men but just can't. Indians can't be boxed into the stereotypes that they use for black men. And as a result this Trumpian subculture is afraid of Indians who are taking away their well paid jobs. The same people were not at all worried when that happened to their brothers in Ohio Michigan Indiana Wisconsin and the entire rust belt was outsourced to China. But with Indians taking away the best of the best white collar jobs and now the hell has broken loose.

    That's the real reason behind all the inefficiency. I have an open challenge to USCIS. I will cut their costs in half and deliver twice as output in 3 years. Anybody in USCIS listening reach out to me.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


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