EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[vsivarama]

Given that there are EB2, EB1, EB3, India, China and ROW in the pool eligible to get GC. Does anyone know how USCIS prioritizes the applications?

I know that they do look at notice date i.e. when they sent the notice. What about other factors? Any thoughts/expert comments?

I do think they Prioritize ROW and then followed by EB1,EB2 and so on. Now hold your horses before you go about calling USCIS racist . In normal circumstances they prioritize ROW simply because it gives them an idea of the horizontal spillover to be applied to EB India and China as early as possible. Similarly they want to prioritize EB1 and so on, as they want to determine the vertical spillover across categories as soon as possible.

[monsieur]

Bumping the thread for more visibility

2 is just rumor on street; you don't want to base your life decision based on it. If you are not in hurry of filing I-485 then go for I-140 first then I-485. If you want to play absolutely safe then file concurrently. You will be safe in long term (AC-221, no perm/i-140 post 180 days, Kids age out etc) with concurrent filing instead of playing cute. Ask anybody from May-2012 how long it took them to file their I-485.

3. List looks good; you can skip EAD and AP if you are not in hurry and just get GC in ~9months.

[freedomseeker]

monsieur,

Thanks for the pointers. On #3, I interpret from the comments of many people in this forum that the applications for EAD/AP is processed by a different office/SC and the rest of other applications (including I-485) is processed by different office/SC. If that is right, can you please enlighten me on how the EAD/AP applications have an impact on getting GC earlier than usual?

2 is just rumor on street; you don't want to base your life decision based on it. If you are not in hurry of filing I-485 then go for I-140 first then I-485. If you want to play absolutely safe then file concurrently. You will be safe in long term (AC-221, no perm/i-140 post 180 days, Kids age out etc) with concurrent filing instead of playing cute. Ask anybody from May-2012 how long it took them to file their I-485.

3. List looks good; you can skip EAD and AP if you are not in hurry and just get GC in ~9months.

[JoinedToAsk]

I do think they Prioritize ROW and then followed by EB1,EB2 and so on. Now hold your horses before you go about calling USCIS racist . In normal circumstances they prioritize ROW simply because it gives them an idea of the horizontal spillover to be applied to EB India and China as early as possible. Similarly they want to prioritize EB1 and so on, as they want to determine the vertical spillover across categories as soon as possible.

So, do you believe EB2 will get processed? I'm EB2 2010 and still have to hear anything positive on i485 front. I heard that someone with 2014 Dec EB3I priority date got greened. I've no clue how this organization works.

[AceMan]

So, do you believe EB2 will get processed? I'm EB2 2010 and still have to hear anything positive on i485 front. I heard that someone with 2014 Dec EB3I priority date got greened. I've no clue how this organization works.

To answer your questions, for the first 3 quarters USCIS process the numbers with 7% country limit clause. That makes ROW petitions given a higher priority than others. Come this September, every body in Eb3 till January 2014 and Eb2 till September 2011 are eligible to get greened.

Your 2010 application is in one pile which may be handled by an officer who has to work on petitions which might be complicated. My 2011 petition had all the necessary documents submitted as requested by USCIS 3 months back. I even opened a SR last month. Called again them couple of days back, they said my application is with an officer, and you got to wait.

On the EAD front they have approved mine and my spouses, while my sons petition was NOT ACTED upon. I opened a service request for that also as it exceeds the normal processing time.

USCIS process time for GC has dramatically increased according to greencardly. So you got to stay patient

[abcx13]

To answer your questions, for the first 3 quarters USCIS process the numbers with 7% country limit clause. That makes ROW petitions given a higher priority than others. Come this September, every body in Eb3 till January 2014 and Eb2 till September 2011 are eligible to get greened.

Charlie said that's not true.

[monsieur]

Don't worry abt USCIS case load; proceed with what makes you comfortable. If you are OK of not getting EAD/AP and/or you are working with your own attorney and can save some $$ without raising your anxiety level, then skip it. If company is filing and there is no difference, then I would say file for it. No harm in getting those entitlements which are part of 485 process.

No one, I bet has first hand knowledge how USCIS is distributing workloads and process 485, EAD, AP cases. So don't enter that rabbit hole. Go with your guts, as you know your situation best.

monsieur,

Thanks for the pointers. On #3, I interpret from the comments of many people in this forum that the applications for EAD/AP is processed by a different office/SC and the rest of other applications (including I-485) is processed by different office/SC. If that is right, can you please enlighten me on how the EAD/AP applications have an impact on getting GC earlier than usual?

[srimurthy]

Did anyone even talk or discuss about the Sep visa bulletin or we felt that is of min impact now?

FAD
EB2 - 01Sep11
EB3 - 01Jan14

[gammaray]

Did anyone even talk or discuss about the Sep visa bulletin or we felt that is of min impact now?

FAD
EB2 - 01Sep11
EB3 - 01Jan14

Not sure what needs to be discussed. The FADs moved to meet the original FDs as is intended. It's just wait and watch from here on for October and beyond -- given possible law changes and impact of visa wastage and demand carryover to FY22.

[namits]

Hello all,

I was wondering if this statement from the "USCIS Temporarily Extending Validity Period of Form I-693" shows that the wastage of green cards will be fewer than expected?

"USCIS is on track to approve more employment-based adjustment of status applications than it has since FY 2005.  We have prioritized employment-based adjustment of status applications during every step of its processing and adjudication during this fiscal year. We continue to make processing and resource allocation decisions to increase the pace of adjudications and limit the potential for employment-based visa numbers to go unused."

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-of-form-i-693

[qesehmk]

Hello all,

I was wondering if this statement from the "USCIS Temporarily Extending Validity Period of Form I-693" shows that the wastage of green cards will be fewer than expected?

"USCIS is on track to approve more employment-based adjustment of status applications than it has since FY 2005.  We have prioritized employment-based adjustment of status applications during every step of its processing and adjudication during this fiscal year. We continue to make processing and resource allocation decisions to increase the pace of adjudications and limit the potential for employment-based visa numbers to go unused."

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-of-form-i-693

To their credit (and to be honest Biden admin deserves the credit rather than the agency) yes indeed they are significantly on their way to reduce potential wastage.

But this extension ends on Sep 30 2021. So all of this is to really be able to approve GCs without having people to require to do medicals again as long as they had done one in last four years.

[abcx13]

To their credit (and to be honest Biden admin deserves the credit rather than the agency) yes indeed they are significantly on their way to reduce potential wastage.

But this extension ends on Sep 30 2021. So all of this is to really be able to approve GCs without having people to require to do medicals again as long as they had done one in last four years.

There is no proof of this. Daily scraped data shows no increase in EB 485 approvals.

[qesehmk]

There is no proof of this. Daily scraped data shows no increase in EB 485 approvals.

That's because the case data doesn't represent reality either in terms of case density or case status. In the old days the data in various forums (e.g. trackitt) used to be decently representative of true demand at least within a few years. Now there is such a fatigue among backlogged community people have stopped caring. So I'd be careful coming to any conclusion based on such data.

I am basing my opinion simply on the fact that we actually are seeing approvals from pretty far away dates that is consistent with the way VB dates have moved.

[abcx13]

That's because the case data doesn't represent reality either in terms of case density or case status. In the old days the data in various forums (e.g. trackitt) used to be decently representative of true demand at least within a few years. Now there is such a fatigue among backlogged community people have stopped caring. So I'd be careful coming to any conclusion based on such data.

I am basing my opinion simply on the fact that we actually are seeing approvals from pretty far away dates that is consistent with the way VB dates have moved.

On the contrary, the data is far better. Forget about Trackitt. Every single case is being scraped every day now. There is no increase in 485 approvals at LIN and SRC where all the downgrade cases. They have barely approved any of the 485s filed in October 2020. They are still working on the FY19 and FY20 backlog mostly. It's true that MSC approvals, adjudicated at FOs, might be up - we don't know the split of their 485 approvals between EB/IR/FB.

The approval of PDs you are seeing is just reflective of the fact that USCIS does not process by PD. They process in order of RD or ND, regardless of PD.

[qesehmk]

I don't think every single case is being scrapped. I will believe it when I see it.

I think those cases are being scrapped that are being fed somewhere on internet.

On the contrary, the data is far better. Forget about Trackitt. Every single case is being scraped every day now. There is no increase in 485 approvals at LIN and SRC where all the downgrade cases. They have barely approved any of the 485s filed in October 2020. They are still working on the FY19 and FY20 backlog mostly. It's true that MSC approvals, adjudicated at FOs, might be up - we don't know the split of their 485 approvals between EB/IR/FB.

The approval of PDs you are seeing is just reflective of the fact that USCIS does not process by PD. They process in order of RD or ND, regardless of PD.

[sstest]

I don't think every single case is being scrapped. I will believe it when I see it.

I think those cases are being scrapped that are being fed somewhere on the internet.

Chinese group on Telegram has done a phenomenal job. There are a few other sites that also scrape all the cases. Case Tracker app on iPhone shows you precise data for up to 500 cases.

No comparison with Spec/Kanmani days directly but these provide a very pointed picture of what's happening IRL. It is clear that:
- Only a few thousand or so burst RFEs came out of the SMS / email campaign for both LIN and SRC.
- Even after 2 weeks after asking for "overnighting" medicals, we have not seen even a handful of approvals for those RFEs, while the SMS/ tweeting campaign goes on.

SRC and LIN seem to be at a standstill.

[sudebusa]

Chinese group on Telegram has done a phenomenal job. There are a few other sites that also scrape all the cases. Case Tracker app on iPhone shows you precise data for up to 500 cases.

No comparison with Spec/Kanmani days directly but these provide a very pointed picture of what's happening IRL. It is clear that:
- Only a few thousand or so burst RFEs came out of the SMS / email campaign for both LIN and SRC.
- Even after 2 weeks after asking for "overnighting" medicals, we have not seen even a handful of approvals for those RFEs, while the SMS/ tweeting campaign goes on.

SRC and LIN seem to be at a standstill.

This dashboard https://public.tableau.com/app/profi...te/I-485Status shows SRC data; there is some progress but truly minuscule compared to the pile of I-485 they are sitting on!!!

[qesehmk]

Yes but that still is a fraction of all cases. And so I would be hard pressed to arrive at any conclusions looking at that data.

If anybody has cogent argument about what all that data is telling us - I certainly would like to know.

Chinese group on Telegram has done a phenomenal job. There are a few other sites that also scrape all the cases. Case Tracker app on iPhone shows you precise data for up to 500 cases
No comparison with Spec/Kanmani days directly but these provide a very pointed picture of what's happening IRL. It is clear that:
- Only a few thousand or so burst RFEs came out of the SMS / email campaign for both LIN and SRC.
- Even after 2 weeks after asking for "overnighting" medicals, we have not seen even a handful of approvals for those RFEs, while the SMS/ tweeting campaign goes on.

SRC and LIN seem to be at a standstill.

[abcx13]

Yes but that still is a fraction of all cases. And so I would be hard pressed to arrive at any conclusions looking at that data.

If anybody has cogent argument about what all that data is telling us - I certainly would like to know.

No, Q, they are scraping ALL the receipt numbers including from 2012, 2018, 2019 and 2020, in addition to 2021. The data is on the Telegram groups (@GreenCardUpdates). I've posted links before in this thread and screenshots of the charts before they asked not to.

It is very clear that there is no change in the pace of approvals.

[qesehmk]

No, Q, they are scraping ALL the receipt numbers including from 2012, 2018, 2019 and 2020, in addition to 2021. The data is on the Telegram groups (@GreenCardUpdates). I've posted links before in this thread and screenshots of the charts before they asked not to.

It is very clear that there is no change in the pace of approvals.

They could be scrapping from any year but that doesn't mean they are scrapping all.

Have you seen case status for a million cases ?

[ImmiGiveMe]

Certainly there has been increase in the I-485 approvals in Q4 based on the various data crunching sites
(--Track it
--https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOTAxNTE4YTktNzEzMi00ZDAzLTk5MWYtZDl mN2Q5NTg5YjNkIiwidCI6ImNiYmI0OTZlLTE5YTgtNGI1Ny1iZ DdmLTJhMzBlNTY3MjNhYiIsImMiOjF9

--https://hilites.today/uscis_cases

)

Majority from MSC which processes both FB and EB applications. IF the the approvals increase from LIN and SRC which processes only EB applications (correct me if I am wrong), then it is a good sign that the wastage of EB numbers will be minimum.

[vsivarama]

They could be scrapping from any year but that doesn't mean they are scrapping all.

Have you seen case status for a million cases ?

As per their stats they are tracking a total of 67K for Nebraska (LIN), 417k for National Benefits center (MSC) and 73k for Texas (SRC) for the year of fiscal year 21. It totally comes to about ~ 560K cases for fiscal year 2021. All of EB applications went to one of these above centers.

[inspired_p]

Certainly there has been increase in the I-485 approvals in Q4 based on the various data crunching sites
(--Track it
--https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOTAxNTE4YTktNzEzMi00ZDAzLTk5MWYtZDl mN2Q5NTg5YjNkIiwidCI6ImNiYmI0OTZlLTE5YTgtNGI1Ny1iZ DdmLTJhMzBlNTY3MjNhYiIsImMiOjF9

--https://hilites.today/uscis_cases

)

Majority from MSC which processes both FB and EB applications. IF the the approvals increase from LIN and SRC which processes only EB applications (correct me if I am wrong), then it is a good sign that the wastage of EB numbers will be minimum.

What about applications which started as LIN but got transfer to NBC. Are those under MSC ( getting processed) or LIN ( not getting processed)?

[qesehmk]

As per their stats they are tracking a total of 67K for Nebraska (LIN), 417k for National Benefits center (MSC) and 73k for Texas (SRC) for the year of fiscal year 21. It totally comes to about ~ 560K cases for fiscal year 2021. All of EB applications went to one of these above centers.

Those are interesting and impressive numbers but again one has to dissect them by case types and priority date and country categories and then somehow also normalize that across all years to figure out your samples vs true population to figure out what's going on. I used to do all that using trackitt data. That's how this whole thread came about.

But now I don't even use trackitt frankly. In fact I stopped doing manual effort.

The problem with any such data is it is so temporal and ridden with hidden follies that it becomes useless.

That's my last on this topic. I don't mean to trash their effort at all. So please don't read it as such. All I am saying is - having data is good. But then people need to also process it the right way to come to conclusions. And if you think based on that data that 485s are not being processed fast enough - that's a fair comment. I can't subscribe to that view. I do think USCIS is on its way to process 200K cases this year and that's substantial processing considering we saw literally nothing until Trump got out of the office. In other words if Biden was president in Oct 2020, we could have seen fulll utilizations of quote.

It also means that for next year I am now much more bullish. There is going to be a ton of new numbers for 2022!!

[abcx13]

They could be scrapping from any year but that doesn't mean they are scrapping all.

Have you seen case status for a million cases ?

YES. They are tracking all 200k EB filings and also FB and IR filings received in October 2020. And same for years before that and months after that
.