EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.

In the last FY, Mr.CO only assigned 2803/12=230 visas every month to EB2 China.

If B is false, he will only approve 230 visas for EB2 China, right?

[Spectator]

Congrats to everyone who has become Current in the October VB and commiserations to those that just missed out.

[nishant2200]

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.

Q, if this is indeed due to visa numbers being attached from last FY, this is a great news. It wud mean last FY in fact ended on 15 Jul 2007, in line with ur prediction. As well for this FY it means more visas up for grabs.

[leo07]

WOW...Thanks TeddyK...I really wasn't expecting and so I wasn't even checking threads much. I got to know only from TeddyK's email to my personal address.
Thanks again

It couldn't have come in a better time..I'm on the border line...my company is bought over by a giant-corp and we are in the midst of transition which could take couple of months. I really wanted to file before that transition happens!!!

I must tell you TeddyK, you are the good news bearer I really wish it could have moved couple of more weeks. Not sure what difference it would make at this point. It appears purely a gamble from CIS+DOS to gain more apps and test waters

[ssvp22]

Congratulations to everyone who became current. Another 3 months and 1 week for me

[soggadu]

cooooool.... Chamak chaloooo CO darling....

1. Congratulations to all who made it... Teddy bhai AAP ka number jaroor ayyega....
2. Who ever is thinking this is start of quarterly spillover, they are wrong as spillover occurs at the end and not at the beginning
3. Not sure about using 27% of all numbers every quarter as it is too early to gauge the demand and make the movement accordingly
4. I feel it happened just because of getting more numbers in so that no visas are wasted come 2012.... I believe the movement still has some steam but I don't want to keep hope... Remember ....aaya tho aaya... Baaki sab maaya.....

I know very little about all this.... So feel free to tear apart my logic( if you feel there is some).....

[soggadu]

I think he was over conservative on the September VB.

Now he realized that he needs to be less conservative.

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???

[TeddyKoochu]

cooooool.... Chamak chaloooo CO darling....

1. Congratulations to all who made it... Teddy bhai AAP ka number jaroor ayyega....
2. Who ever is thinking this is start of quarterly spillover, they are wrong as spillover occurs at the end and not at the beginning
3. Not sure about using 27% of all numbers every quarter as it is too early to gauge the demand and make the movement accordingly
4. I feel it happened just because of getting more numbers in so that no visas are wasted come 2012.... I believe the movement still has some steam but I don't want to keep hope... Remember ....aaya tho aaya... Baaki sab maaya.....

I know very little about all this.... So feel free to tear apart my logic( if you feel there is some).....

Friends here are some thoughts on what may happen now. Normally all predictions and calculations are done based on consumption rates from all sources however we are not into the next year yet. So lets analyze things in a qualitative way.

The guiding principle is that this year’s SOFAD has been ~ 30K so at all times they should have 30K 485's available.

Now let’s analyze what’s in the system. There is currently 8.5K published demand and the PWMB intake will be ~ 3.5K. This makes it 12K.

We will have atleast 4-6K porting, lets average to 5K. Porting cases are the easiest to approve. So with this ~ 17K demand is there in the system.

CP and local office demand in the system is virtually nothing. Now what’s left is a 13K intake.

There are 2 scenarios now.

There is another intake next month, CO cannot keep the dates at this level for long, the dates have to move back before more 485's can ripen. My guess is that we are in the heaviest zone and EB2 I/C is atleast 2.5 - 3K a month. Based on this if CO takes intake it can go maximum to 31st December 2007, going into 2008 will be very hard.

Next month the dates retrogress, then they may stay there for another quarter or 2 quarters and then the next batch of intake will be more calculated. Any calculated intake will always be lesser than any knee jerk or flashy intake.

Regardless anyone before Oct 2007 should be fairly certain about both EAD and GC this year. Oct 2007 - Dec 2007 may likely get EAD / AP for GC they are borderline. As time goes on this will be revised so nothing is in stone for now. Let’s all hope for the best. Congratulations once again for everyone who is current. I know that everyone’s concern now is more about getting EAD in the near term than GC. 2011 represents the peak of SOFAD for that kind of momentum to continue something phenomenal may happen. The way we can read it is by measuring the rates of EB2 and EB1. Let’s wait, watch and hope for the best in this regard. For now the dates entering 2008 is a very long shot but it’s not impossible.

[TeddyKoochu]

cooooool.... Chamak chaloooo CO darling....

1. Congratulations to all who made it... Teddy bhai AAP ka number jaroor ayyega....

Thanks Sogaddu, for your kind works. Everyone’s number I hope comes soon. Your quote's and attitude are great man.

WOW...Thanks TeddyK...I really wasn't expecting and so I wasn't even checking threads much. I got to know only from TeddyK's email to my personal address.
Thanks again

It couldn't have come in a better time..I'm on the border line...my company is bought over by a giant-corp and we are in the midst of transition which could take couple of months. I really wanted to file before that transition happens!!!

I must tell you TeddyK, you are the good news bearer I really wish it could have moved couple of more weeks. Not sure what difference it would make at this point. It appears purely a gamble from CIS+DOS to gain more apps and test waters

Leo, thanks for your kind words. We have been though this long together. Sometimes things don't come by when we expect them like in Aug & Sep but they come up quite unexpectedly when we least expect them. So this makes the surprise and happiness even more. I think you have probable waited for the longest time, so well deserved congrats again.

[TeddyKoochu]

congratulations to all the folks who become current.

hope T will be current next month!

good luck to all! we need to let the congress and DOS hear our voice!

continue to fight for a better treatment to EB immigrants!

Many Thanks my friend, I hope your words come true.

This is great news. I am on vacation n stuck on cumbersome typing on iphone.

As I have been saying earlier, they can always move dates to whatever they want and put some disclaimer as to why and any caveats. Like this is for only capturing demand, as they said this time. I had this discussion earlier n Spec responded, as well as Q.

I think they are setting the stage for this year. This is the first BTM, next I think they will goto 15-Aug-2007 as Bieber said, and then new territory of late 2007.

Nishant I think you are correct, this just the first iteration there is more to come by. BTW you are doing great on the iphone.

You are verry close...good luck!!

Many thanks my friend.

[qblogfan]

haha, I don't hate him, but I am angry about what he has done.

I hope he can move EB2 faster this year. Hope all of us will get GC ASAP!

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???

[qblogfan]

I hope they will approve the cases next month.

I am worrying that they may not approve any, or just approve 2800/12 next month.

He only approved 230 per month for EB2-C last FY.

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.

[mesan123]

Hmm...May be people will hate him till the day he makes there date CURRENT..

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???

[qblogfan]

I also have the same concern.

If this movement is only for building pipeline, this movement can only admit 2k new cases. I think 2k is not significant for this pipeline at all.

If they move PD to Dec.31 2007, it will admit more than 10k new cases.

If this movement is purely for building 2012 demand , they should have moved the dates beyond aug 07 also this is the known demand already in the pipeline except for PWMBs .

This movement could not be taken as a BTM too.

[gcq]

Adding my speculation,

I don't believe CO is really building a pipeline. He is just adding another piece of pipe to his long pipeline of lies. I suspect he miscalculated EB1/EB2 Row demand for September and reserved too many visas for EB1/EB2 ROW. Once he realized his mistake, to prevent the visas from being wasted, he is pushing the dates 3 months to use up the visas that would have been wasted in September. To cover up this he has to come up with an explanation - building the pipeline.

[veni001]

Looks like i missed the party!
I was busy at work today, i saw the demand data add replied to Q this afternoon did not expected bulletin today! Came home getting ready for the weekend, as my routine(after dinner) came to check our forum to my surprise that October VB is out, EB2IC did move and my PD is "C".

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. QBF I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

Teddy,
I was thinking about you when i looked at VB for EB2I cut-off date. It is really tough, hag in there you are very close to the end of the tunnel.

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

Q,
Let's hope not! since the new filings( PWMB) no way appear in November the demand.

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

Thank you

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

bieber,
Thank you

03may2007, I remember u

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

Agree.

Congrats to everyone who has become Current in the October VB and commiserations to those that just missed out.

Spec,
Thank you

Congratulations to everyone who became current. Another 3 months and 1 week for me

Thanks to all of you and congratulations to those who will be current in Oct'11.

[rdsingh79]

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements

[qblogfan]

I have the same suspect. I think EB1/EB2 ROW demand is too thin, so he has to use the visas on EB2 C&I. Some EB1 cases with PD July have been approved in 2 months. It's a strong sign.

The 1 million dollar question is:

Will they approve all the EB2 C&I cases with PDs before July 15? If they approve all these cases, that means it's not BTM.
If they only approve several hundred cases, then it's BTM.

This is also the first time that CO combines C&I in October of the new FY.

Adding my speculation,

I don't believe CO is really building a pipeline. He is just adding another piece of pipe to his long pipeline of lies. I suspect he miscalculated EB1/EB2 Row demand for September and reserved too many visas for EB1/EB2 ROW. Once he realized his mistake, to prevent the visas from being wasted, he is pushing the dates 3 months to use up the visas that would have been wasted in September. To cover up this he has to come up with an explanation - building the pipeline.

[qblogfan]

Keep fingers crossed.

Actually I checked the data and Oct.VB only brings 2-3k new demand. It does not increase his pipeline too much.

Everything is so confusing! Let's see what will happen next month!

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements

[vedu]

I am interpreting the statement in the visa bulletin regarding EB2 IC future movements little differently than others.

The first sentence reads, "The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India". This to me indicates that the current 3 months movement is a natural progress based on the numbers availability.

The second sentence reads, " The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use". I take the word "intended" as "expected" in coming months. After all, this whole statement is about possible future movement.

And the last sentence reads, "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility." This is straightforward. After generating enough demand during the next few months, the movement will eventually slow down, stop or retrogress.

So, the bottom line is that we haven't yet seen the rapid movement. What we have seen in the current bulletin is the normal movement based on the numbers available and most of the cases till July 15th will be cleared soon. And a big movement is on the cards for the next couple of visa bulletins.

Am I reading too much into this statement?

[qblogfan]

Congratulations to you! Hope CO can approve all the old PDs!

Looks like i missed the party!
I was busy at work today, i saw the demand data add replied to Q this afternoon did not expected bulletin today! Came home getting ready for the weekend, as my routine(after dinner) came to check our forum to my surprise that October VB is out, EB2IC did move and my PD is "C".



Teddy,
I was thinking about you when i looked at VB for EB2I cut-off date. It is really tough, hag in there you are very close to the end of the tunnel.



Q,
Let's hope not! since the new filings( PWMB) no way appear in November the demand.



Thank you



Agree.



Spec,
Thank you




Thanks to all of you and congratulations to those who will be current in Oct'11.

[veni001]

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements

rdsingh,

I am kind of feeling the same way.

Based on current processing time frames, none of the new EB2IC PWMB will appear as documentarily qualified demand at least until January 2012!

[qblogfan]

Add one thing: "Distinct Possibility" means it's very likely the VB will not retrogress.

Another question is: what is the sufficient demand? 20k or 30k?

Second questions is: will USCIS really approve most of the cases with PD earlier than July 15?

Can somebody answer these two questions?

I am interpreting the statement in the visa bulletin regarding EB2 IC future movements little differently than others.

The first sentence reads, "The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India". This to me indicates that the current 3 months movement is a natural progress based on the numbers availability.

The second sentence reads, " The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use". I take the word "intended" as "expected" in coming months. After all, this whole statement is about possible future movement.

And the last sentence reads, "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility." This is straightforward. After generating enough demand during the next few months, the movement will eventually slow down, stop or retrogress.

So, the bottom line is that we haven't yet seen the rapid movement. What we have seen in the current bulletin is the normal movement based on the numbers available and most of the cases till July 15th will be cleared soon. And a big movement is on the cards for the next couple of visa bulletins.

Am I reading too much into this statement?

[veni001]

Congratulations to you! Hope CO can approve all the old PDs!

qblogfan.
Thank you and i am hoping for quarterly spillover.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you completely.

These numbers will not become demand in 2-3 months.

I think they will use 6k visas on EB2 C&I in Q1. This will be the first time that they use this big number on EB2 C&I.

rdsingh,

I am kind of feeling the same way.

Based on current processing time frames, none of the new EB2IC PWMB will appear as documentarily qualified demand at least until January 2012!