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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #3851
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    GCs are also issued by the field offices around the country. I don't know how many are actually transferred but they are not letting people know for sure. I enquired about my case and found out it's no longer at MSC though there is no update on the case tracking.
    This includes the cases transferred to FOs also as it's just checking the case status.
    Last edited by abcx13; 06-22-2021 at 09:23 AM.

  2. #3852
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    My quick 2 cents - NEVER forget that GC is future employment. So all that your lawyer needs to take care is your move in the short term. Company can continue to say that your future job hasn't changed.

    All the best.
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    H1-B
    H1-B is location and employer specific. So if you are with the same employer and change locations, you need to amend your existing H1-B to reflect the new location. If you are also maintaining H1-B, do the amendment process.

    Pending I-485 after 180 days
    As you have already made up your mind about relocation, I assume that you already know that you are eligible for AC21 protection. AC21 only requires the job to be in "same or similar classification". So if there is no change in your job title or description or SOC code you are a perfect candidate. AC21 does not require the new job to be in the same geographic location or pay.

    You have to file AR-11 form to reflect change of address. Once an AR-11 is filed, the USCIS system automatically updates address on all pending applications with your A#. you may get fingerprinting at the new ASC (CA) or old ASC (MA). It all depends on internal USCIS processing, timing of AR-11, system updates and such. Once you file AR-11, the AO might send a RFE for I-485 Supp J, if he or she thinks that you have moved to a different job. Then you have respond with evidence for the RFE. After AR-11, you can request USCIS to reschedule biometric at new ASC location. Delays associated with AR-11 are expected, but depending on a variety of things it may even speedup your biometric in rare situations.
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Cases with nuances is better to get a lawyers advice.
    Thanks for your inputs. Lawyer does not have any concern with the move. My H1 is up for renewal and that will be filed for the new location. No change in the job title or description. My concern is the delay this might cause in my I-485 application and EAD and if there is way to avoid that.

  3. #3853
    Latest NBC data(MSC series) from Telegram. High res picture https://i.imgur.com/SvllGg1.png

  4. #3854
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    thanks for posting

  5. #3855
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    I enquired about my case and found out it's no longer at MSC though there is no update on the case tracking.
    Turbulent, may I ask what your local field office is? If thats ok with you

  6. #3856
    Quote Originally Posted by krnashvom8 View Post
    Turbulent, may I ask what your local field office is? If thats ok with you
    Yeah, no worries, it's Atlanta.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  7. #3857
    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    Latest NBC data(MSC series) from Telegram. High res picture https://i.imgur.com/SvllGg1.png
    This is just an amazingly clear graph as to what's going on! Nice view of the burn down of the cases as they are getting approved.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  8. #3858
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    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    Latest NBC data(MSC series) from Telegram. High res picture https://i.imgur.com/SvllGg1.png
    Can anyone describe how best to interpret this information? Is there similar information available for TSC?

  9. #3859
    Quote Originally Posted by SG2020 View Post
    Can anyone describe how best to interpret this information? Is there similar information available for TSC?
    You can join the group here - https://t.me/GreenCardUpdates

    Yes, similar info available for TSC, NSC, and NBC.

  10. #3860
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    Aceman, I personally don?t think there will be this huge spillover like FY2022, I?m expecting around 320k-330k visa numbers or even 350k by end of September to be available for EB with all the US consulates closed across the globe for the entire FY2021. I don?t see such huge number unless another pandemic or war. Do you think there are chances for Nov 2016 EB3 for DOF in oct 2021 VB with such huge spillover and very less wastage 30k-50k in FY2021
    Ok, You need to understand what happens when EB3 has a massive movement historically.
    Last quarter of 2017 18 months movement. First quarter of 2018 0 months movement. April 2018 - 13 months movement, came all the way up to January 2009 by August 2018. It was the same till Feb 2020.

    For FY 2022 we are expecting around 280,000 visas. Since EB1 and Eb2-ROW is current, most of that will get applied to EB2, while EB3 is going to be slow movement for some time.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  11. #3861
    The Chinese groups have incredible scraped data. Some samples:

    I-485 Approved since 10/01/2020 up to early June 2021 (not only EB)

    SRC129 209
    LIN190 1
    LIN200 1136
    LIN210 367
    SRC190 131
    SRC200 840
    SRC210 229
    LIN199 1010
    LIN209 12256
    LIN219 47
    SRC199 1602
    SRC209 1664
    SRC219 0
    MSC199 21971
    MSC209 121402
    MSC219 17661

    TOTAL 181522




    Statistics for 2021-05-17.
    formType serviceCenter fiscalYear LockboxOrServiceCeter trackingTotal oneDayFPed totalFPed oneDayApproved totalApproved
    I-485 LIN 19 LB 10854 0 1769 12 4138
    I-485 LIN 19 SC 65 0 13 0 34
    I-485 LIN 20 LB 26128 4 13520 166 10368
    I-485 LIN 20 SC 3472 2 874 8 1370
    I-485 LIN 21 LB 54342 88 25583 0 7
    I-485 LIN 21 SC 4679 2 1895 5 160
    I-485 MSC 19 LB 116784 0 12972 92 35417
    I-485 MSC 19 SC 68 0 5 0 11
    I-485 MSC 20 LB 264876 8 69877 867 108198
    I-485 MSC 20 SC 120 0 21 0 17
    I-485 MSC 21 LB 334030 57 164367 330 9565
    I-485 MSC 21 SC 122 0 36 0 18
    I-485 SRC 19 LB 23299 1 11228 34 1658
    I-485 SRC 19 SC 34554 0 19574 3 901
    I-485 SRC 20 LB 34487 76 25179 14 1261
    I-485 SRC 20 SC 38508 0 31193 15 915
    I-485 SRC 21 LB 38891 210 1394 0 0
    I-485 SRC 21 SC 22730 16 11024 3 153
    I-765 LIN 21 LB 83212 213 43783 168 17085
    I-765 LIN 21 SC 10138 3 3595 35 619
    I-765 MSC 21 LB 386297 1 200670 980 95494
    I-765 MSC 21 SC 536 0 162 0 231
    I-765 SRC 21 LB 56881 15 13207 3 4181
    I-765 SRC 21 SC 6945 0 2248 2 70

  12. #3862
    One more scraping website with similar data as some of the Telegram groups: https://hilites.today/uscis_cases

  13. #3863
    Hello Friends,

    My PD (5/23/2011 EB2-I) is current as per July bulletin. I didn't file for downgrade last year.
    I am wondering what the best course of action might be for people who never got to file because DOF was not current or accepted by UCSIS *but* whose dates may be current directly in the FAD chart ( e.g. May 15 to May 30 ).

    I have decided to send the medicals along with the I-485. But wasn't sure if I should apply for EAD/AP also with it.

    - Is it better to apply without EAD/AP forms ? Any pros/cons with this approach ?
    - Any other learning that we could use make the process smoother ?

    Just concerned that there will be another flood of applications in Oct '21 and the next couple of months provides a brief window of opportunity

    Appreciate your feedback.
    Thanks!

  14. #3864
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    The Chinese groups have incredible scraped data. Some samples:

    I-485 Approved since 10/01/2020 up to early June 2021 (not only EB)

    SRC129 209
    LIN190 1
    LIN200 1136
    LIN210 367
    SRC190 131
    SRC200 840
    SRC210 229
    LIN199 1010
    LIN209 12256
    LIN219 47
    SRC199 1602
    SRC209 1664
    SRC219 0
    MSC199 21971
    MSC209 121402
    MSC219 17661

    TOTAL 181522




    Statistics for 2021-05-17.
    formType serviceCenter fiscalYear LockboxOrServiceCeter trackingTotal oneDayFPed totalFPed oneDayApproved totalApproved
    I-485 LIN 19 LB 10854 0 1769 12 4138
    I-485 LIN 19 SC 65 0 13 0 34
    I-485 LIN 20 LB 26128 4 13520 166 10368
    I-485 LIN 20 SC 3472 2 874 8 1370
    I-485 LIN 21 LB 54342 88 25583 0 7
    I-485 LIN 21 SC 4679 2 1895 5 160
    I-485 MSC 19 LB 116784 0 12972 92 35417
    I-485 MSC 19 SC 68 0 5 0 11
    I-485 MSC 20 LB 264876 8 69877 867 108198
    I-485 MSC 20 SC 120 0 21 0 17
    I-485 MSC 21 LB 334030 57 164367 330 9565
    I-485 MSC 21 SC 122 0 36 0 18
    I-485 SRC 19 LB 23299 1 11228 34 1658
    I-485 SRC 19 SC 34554 0 19574 3 901
    I-485 SRC 20 LB 34487 76 25179 14 1261
    I-485 SRC 20 SC 38508 0 31193 15 915
    I-485 SRC 21 LB 38891 210 1394 0 0
    I-485 SRC 21 SC 22730 16 11024 3 153
    I-765 LIN 21 LB 83212 213 43783 168 17085
    I-765 LIN 21 SC 10138 3 3595 35 619
    I-765 MSC 21 LB 386297 1 200670 980 95494
    I-765 MSC 21 SC 536 0 162 0 231
    I-765 SRC 21 LB 56881 15 13207 3 4181
    I-765 SRC 21 SC 6945 0 2248 2 70
    Someone can correct me if I am reading the data incorrectly but between the plotted data from the image shared for NBC earlier and above mentioned number of approved cases, I am seeing:

    MSC219 series has roughly 350k-400k cases out of which ~17k cases has been approved...Does this mean these approvals does not include any field office approvals?
    PD: 01/17/2014 || EB3I || 485/131/765 RD: 10/6/20 || BM: 2/18/21 || ER Submitted: 5/21/21 || ER Approved: 06/01/21 || EAD/AP Card Received: 6/12/21 || RFE (Medical) Received: 8/30/21 || RRFE: 9/9/21 || 485 Approval: Pending

  15. #3865
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Yeah, no worries, it's Atlanta.
    Thanks! appreciate that

  16. #3866
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    Quote Originally Posted by montyp80 View Post
    Someone can correct me if I am reading the data incorrectly but between the plotted data from the image shared for NBC earlier and above mentioned number of approved cases, I am seeing:

    MSC219 series has roughly 350k-400k cases out of which ~17k cases has been approved...Does this mean these approvals does not include any field office approvals?
    The approvals should also include field office approvals.

  17. #3867
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    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    The Chinese groups have incredible scraped data. Some samples:

    I-485 Approved since 10/01/2020 up to early June 2021 (not only EB)

    SRC129 209
    LIN190 1
    LIN200 1136
    LIN210 367
    SRC190 131
    SRC200 840
    SRC210 229
    LIN199 1010
    LIN209 12256
    LIN219 47
    SRC199 1602
    SRC209 1664
    SRC219 0
    MSC199 21971
    MSC209 121402
    MSC219 17661

    TOTAL 181522




    Statistics for 2021-05-17.
    formType serviceCenter fiscalYear LockboxOrServiceCeter trackingTotal oneDayFPed totalFPed oneDayApproved totalApproved
    I-485 LIN 19 LB 10854 0 1769 12 4138
    I-485 LIN 19 SC 65 0 13 0 34
    I-485 LIN 20 LB 26128 4 13520 166 10368
    I-485 LIN 20 SC 3472 2 874 8 1370
    I-485 LIN 21 LB 54342 88 25583 0 7
    I-485 LIN 21 SC 4679 2 1895 5 160
    I-485 MSC 19 LB 116784 0 12972 92 35417
    I-485 MSC 19 SC 68 0 5 0 11
    I-485 MSC 20 LB 264876 8 69877 867 108198
    I-485 MSC 20 SC 120 0 21 0 17
    I-485 MSC 21 LB 334030 57 164367 330 9565
    I-485 MSC 21 SC 122 0 36 0 18
    I-485 SRC 19 LB 23299 1 11228 34 1658
    I-485 SRC 19 SC 34554 0 19574 3 901
    I-485 SRC 20 LB 34487 76 25179 14 1261
    I-485 SRC 20 SC 38508 0 31193 15 915
    I-485 SRC 21 LB 38891 210 1394 0 0
    I-485 SRC 21 SC 22730 16 11024 3 153
    I-765 LIN 21 LB 83212 213 43783 168 17085
    I-765 LIN 21 SC 10138 3 3595 35 619
    I-765 MSC 21 LB 386297 1 200670 980 95494
    I-765 MSC 21 SC 536 0 162 0 231
    I-765 SRC 21 LB 56881 15 13207 3 4181
    I-765 SRC 21 SC 6945 0 2248 2 70
    Man, this SRC BS feels like another round of disappointment! Almost one year gone and nothing. As an aside, how can I know if my application went to a lockbox or a service center? My papers were sent to Nebraska and received on 11/4. I have all my applications (I-140 for the EB3 downgrade, 485, 765/131) start with an SRC. Got my receipt notices on Feb 11, and nothing else since then.

  18. #3868
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    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    You can join the group here - https://t.me/GreenCardUpdates

    Yes, similar info available for TSC, NSC, and NBC.
    Is there a similar group in English?
    Green card approved on 6/28/2021
    EB2-India; PD 2/10/2010; I-485 RD 3/22/2012 at TSC; RFE received 05/08/21: I-693 (Medical), "Job Offer Letter", and Biographic info (G-352A). RFE response received by USCIS 6/4/21; Officer # XM2027

  19. #3869
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    The Chinese groups have incredible scraped data. Some samples:

    I-485 Approved since 10/01/2020 up to early June 2021 (not only EB)

    SRC129 209
    LIN190 1
    LIN200 1136
    LIN210 367
    SRC190 131
    SRC200 840
    SRC210 229
    LIN199 1010
    LIN209 12256
    LIN219 47
    SRC199 1602
    SRC209 1664
    SRC219 0
    MSC199 21971
    MSC209 121402
    MSC219 17661

    TOTAL 181522




    Statistics for 2021-05-17.
    formType serviceCenter fiscalYear LockboxOrServiceCeter trackingTotal oneDayFPed totalFPed oneDayApproved totalApproved
    I-485 LIN 19 LB 10854 0 1769 12 4138
    I-485 LIN 19 SC 65 0 13 0 34
    I-485 LIN 20 LB 26128 4 13520 166 10368
    I-485 LIN 20 SC 3472 2 874 8 1370
    I-485 LIN 21 LB 54342 88 25583 0 7
    I-485 LIN 21 SC 4679 2 1895 5 160
    I-485 MSC 19 LB 116784 0 12972 92 35417
    I-485 MSC 19 SC 68 0 5 0 11
    I-485 MSC 20 LB 264876 8 69877 867 108198
    I-485 MSC 20 SC 120 0 21 0 17
    I-485 MSC 21 LB 334030 57 164367 330 9565
    I-485 MSC 21 SC 122 0 36 0 18
    I-485 SRC 19 LB 23299 1 11228 34 1658
    I-485 SRC 19 SC 34554 0 19574 3 901
    I-485 SRC 20 LB 34487 76 25179 14 1261
    I-485 SRC 20 SC 38508 0 31193 15 915
    I-485 SRC 21 LB 38891 210 1394 0 0
    I-485 SRC 21 SC 22730 16 11024 3 153
    I-765 LIN 21 LB 83212 213 43783 168 17085
    I-765 LIN 21 SC 10138 3 3595 35 619
    I-765 MSC 21 LB 386297 1 200670 980 95494
    I-765 MSC 21 SC 536 0 162 0 231
    I-765 SRC 21 LB 56881 15 13207 3 4181
    I-765 SRC 21 SC 6945 0 2248 2 70
    Total number of approvals at service center facility (where I-140+I-485 concurrent filings go) seem low compared to lock-box facilities. But it could also be due to the fact that prior to Oct-2020 most of the filings were mostly I-485 filings based on previously approved I-140 (for backlogged countries).
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  20. #3870
    Quote Originally Posted by montyp80 View Post
    Someone can correct me if I am reading the data incorrectly but between the plotted data from the image shared for NBC earlier and above mentioned number of approved cases, I am seeing:

    MSC219 series has roughly 350k-400k cases out of which ~17k cases has been approved...Does this mean these approvals does not include any field office approvals?
    I think it does include FO approvals. They are just scraping USCIS case status, which gets updated regardless of where the case gets adjudicated. MSC also has a lot of FB cases probably btw.

  21. #3871
    Folks ,

    I want to Interfile I-693 to Pending Form I-485. Confirmed in a chat with the live agent and the application is sill with TSC
    If someone has already sent it , can you confirm if this is the correct address ?

    DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
    UNITED STATES CITIZENSHIP AND IMMIGRATION SERVICES
    Texas Service Center
    6046 N Belt Line Rd, Irving, TX 75038

    Does the package needs to marked to someone's attention ?
    Also should I send a single package with 1 cover letter for myself and dependent ?
    Some people suggested sending separate packages but I wonder if that can result in medicals getting applied to one application and not the other.

    Appreciate any suggestions.

  22. #3872
    Quote Originally Posted by LightAtEndOfTunnel View Post
    Total number of approvals at service center facility (where I-140+I-485 concurrent filings go) seem low compared to lock-box facilities. But it could also be due to the fact that prior to Oct-2020 most of the filings were mostly I-485 filings based on previously approved I-140 (for backlogged countries).
    Yeah, strange. I think only PP I140+485 filings go to SC btw. Rest go to LB.

  23. #3873
    Quote Originally Posted by gsingh View Post
    Folks ,

    I want to Interfile I-693 to Pending Form I-485. Confirmed in a chat with the live agent and the application is sill with TSC
    If someone has already sent it , can you confirm if this is the correct address ?

    DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
    UNITED STATES CITIZENSHIP AND IMMIGRATION SERVICES
    Texas Service Center
    6046 N Belt Line Rd, Irving, TX 75038

    Does the package needs to marked to someone's attention ?
    Also should I send a single package with 1 cover letter for myself and dependent ?
    Some people suggested sending separate packages but I wonder if that can result in medicals getting applied to one application and not the other.

    Appreciate any suggestions.
    Check post from the great Idliman https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post82392

    Package doesn't need to be marked to anyone. As long as you have your receipt number / alien number marked correctly it will be stapled to your I-485 (in theory that's the expectation but may or may not happen).
    Sending it in single package will be better in my opinion, that increases traceability of the paperwork and one cover letter for primary applicant with dependent information (name / receipt / alien numbers etc) should be good enough. Based on primary applicant USCIS adjudication officer can always link the dependents.


    If you are filing to TSC then you have a correct address as per this USCIS post - https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/te...ess-on-june-26
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

  24. #3874
    Quote Originally Posted by SG2020 View Post
    Man, this SRC BS feels like another round of disappointment! Almost one year gone and nothing. As an aside, how can I know if my application went to a lockbox or a service center? My papers were sent to Nebraska and received on 11/4. I have all my applications (I-140 for the EB3 downgrade, 485, 765/131) start with an SRC. Got my receipt notices on Feb 11, and nothing else since then.
    All applications go to a lockbox for initial processing and then are assigned to a service center. Only lockboxes that I-140 based I-485 applications go to (depending on the State of residence) are Dallas and Phoenix. And *I think* all downgrade applications go to Phoenix. Not sure how yours went to Nebraska. In any case since the receipts starts SRC they are being processed by the Texas Service Center. Anecdotally, it appears SRC is the slowest processing applications so not much to do except wait.

  25. #3875
    Quote Originally Posted by gammaray View Post
    All applications go to a lockbox for initial processing and then are assigned to a service center. Only lockboxes that I-140 based I-485 applications go to (depending on the State of residence) are Dallas and Phoenix. And *I think* all downgrade applications go to Phoenix. Not sure how yours went to Nebraska. In any case since the receipts starts SRC they are being processed by the Texas Service Center. Anecdotally, it appears SRC is the slowest processing applications so not much to do except wait.
    From the data that I have seen (for over hundreds of downgrade applicants) in my company and through various trackers on forums, almost everyone is assigned to Nebraska.
    NSC, EB2-I->EB3-I, PD:2/12, RD:11/4/20, ND:2/13/21, I-140(EB3):6/3/21, FP:7/16/21, I-693 (interfile): 7/22/21(delivered/no-ack), RFE(I-693):8/7/21, RFE-R: 8/10/21, EAD/AP: None, I-485 (Approved): 10/27/2021

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