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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #3801
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    The only logical explanation that I have for this is that it's been 9 years since they filed and chances are NOT bright that the initial batch of officers who were assigned those cases are still working in USCIS. The result could be that their files are assigned to a different officer and ended up in the bottom of the pile. Just a theory, I have. Do I have proof, NO.
    I can add something more to that. Had there been no filing date/final date introduction in 2015, CO would have advanced final dates for them in last quarter of 2016 or 2017 and all of them would have been greened before 2018. The non submission of medicals appears to be a big time visa waster this year. Last quarter and dates exceeded to what is being predicted for Eb2 and very close to December 2020 filing date.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  2. #3802
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Location
    United States
    Posts
    42
    Hello Friends,

    I received a notification saying we sent RFE on 2021/06/17 and my PD is 2010/02/13 waiting for the letter.

  3. #3803
    Telegram group with what looks like very useful scraped data: https://t.me/GreenCardUpdates

    Found link on Trackitt.

    I am at LIN but SRC looks like a total sh**show.
    Last edited by abcx13; 06-19-2021 at 03:48 AM.

  4. #3804
    I am a longtime visitor of this forum, and say that i gained immense knowledge on EB immigration from best of the minds out here.
    Discussions from this forum gave me confidence and necessary pointers to file AoS by myself.

    Here is my timeline,

    1. Applied for AoS in EB2 during Oct 2020 without medicals for self and family ( I filed 485/EAD/AP all my myself along with Sup J provided by employer). April 2011 priority.
    2. Got receipt notices & FP notices on time.
    3. Received EAD/AP approval by end of Jan 2021. I am preparing EAD/AP renewal documentation to submit during first week of August 2021.
    4. Post 180 days started looking for job, and got a good offer.
    5. Will be joining the new employer by end of June 2021 on EAD
    6. Shared copy of PERM, I140 application/approval with new employer. They are working on the information i need to file 485 sup J.


    7. Collected Vaccination records from primary care physicians for our family. Provided those docs to USCIS approved physician along with form I 693.
    Luckily all shots are covered, nothing was missing and the report will be ready by mid of next week. I am yet to get medical RFE but planning to submit it along with 485 sup J.

    Now the questions,

    1. I believe sending medicals (without rfe) along with Sup J has high chance of acceptance than sending it alone. What do you guys think?
    2. Where to send 485 Sup J(without rfe)? - My original 485 AoS was sent to Phoenix lockbox. So i guess i need to send it to the same address. Do you see anything i am missing?

    Excerpts from USCIS site,
    "If you are filing a Form I-485 without the Form I-140, or if you are requesting job portability based on a Form I-485 that has been pending with USCIS for 180 days or more,
    file Supplement J at the filing address for your Form I 485. Review the Direct Filing Addresses for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or
    Adjust Status page to determine where to file your form, and see the Special Instructions section of this page for information about when to file Supplement J.

    If we sent you a Request for Evidence (RFE) or a Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID) requesting that you file Supplement J,
    please submit it with your response to the RFE or NOID at the address specified."


    and the fun part -

    I am part of Siskind's lawsuit now, and during 2015 as well. Fooled twice? May be yes, May be no. 2k USD will not make me poor but few months of delayed GC will.

  5. #3805
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Mar 2021
    Location
    California
    Posts
    37

    EB3 prediction for Nov 2016 PD in Oct 2021 visa Bulletin

    Hi

    @idliman, and Gurus
    I have a job offer handy with me, but this aggressive final action date moment, where 2013 is current in EB3 ( which I thought would not be current for next 50-60 years ) do you think Nov 2016 EB3 might be in Date of filling by oct 2021 visa bulletin. I am really hesitant to take up the new job offer where I have to go through PERM and that would take 10-14 months and I might miss the opportunity.
    As we only have two more visa bulletins ( Aug, Sep ) do you think are there any chances for Nov 2016 EB3 applicant in DOF with this momentum.

    Also, do you think the visa wastage for FY2021 will decide the Date of filling for FY2022? Any thoughts on how much would be the wastage with this current situation. Why would DOL move the DOF if they think there might be wastage for FY2021.

  6. #3806
    Freshman
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    Jul 2018
    Location
    New York
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    Hello, I?ll start with the fact that I really like this forum for the measured, well-considered and cordial exchanges. I?m a long time lurker and posting here for the first time. Please move this to the appropriate thread if this is not the right place.

    Headline: There?s a typo in job start date in approved PERM
    ??????????
    I have an approved PERM and EB2 I-140 (from 2012). My Priority Date became current in EB3 recently, so my company filed a concurrent EB3 downgrade and AOS. We filed for premium processing once the downgrade EB3 I-140 receipt was generated. We have since received a RFE ��. It?s a routine RFE requesting Employment Verification Letters (EVL) (which I would have thought they already had). In any case, while preparing the response, my lawyers told me that the start date for my last job on the approved PERM and my EVL is off by a few days. I didn?t think this would have been an issue considering it?s only a few days and that too straddling a National holiday. But as part of the RFE response, along with the EVLs, my company lawyers want to submit an affidavit stating that the date on the PERM was a typo, and that the start date on my EVL is correct (and that there are no other changes to the PERM). I?m wary that all this would bring even more attention to the start date typo, which might otherwise not have been a big issue - and as a worst case may result in the approved PERM being reviewed again and reversed !. I might be overthinking it, but after many false starts, and waiting a really, really long time to get this close, I just don?t want to jeopardize anything!

  7. #3807
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    Hi

    @idliman, and Gurus
    I have a job offer handy with me, but this aggressive final action date moment, where 2013 is current in EB3 ( which I thought would not be current for next 50-60 years ) do you think Nov 2016 EB3 might be in Date of filling by oct 2021 visa bulletin. I am really hesitant to take up the new job offer where I have to go through PERM and that would take 10-14 months and I might miss the opportunity.
    As we only have two more visa bulletins ( Aug, Sep ) do you think are there any chances for Nov 2016 EB3 applicant in DOF with this momentum.

    Also, do you think the visa wastage for FY2021 will decide the Date of filling for FY2022? Any thoughts on how much would be the wastage with this current situation. Why would DOL move the DOF if they think there might be wastage for FY2021.
    I would suggest you to take multiple pages and write Pros and Cons for each. It is not simple. Each points can have multiple paths

    For your dates when do you think you are going to get GC if you stay with the same company? The earliest you can see the actual GC from our 2020-21 experience is after July 2022. If the job change worth enough to make a difference if you get your GC after 2023?

    If you want to check in the past, what was your expectation same time a 18 months back?

    What happened in 2012 when dates moved forward very fast? 80% of the people, who had the chance to file for GC filed in EB2. Apply the same logic here, with the EB3 final dates moving more than 18 months ahead every new person changing job in 2021 is going to apply in EB3 only. So the momentum you are seeing now, may not be there when the country opens up post covid.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  8. #3808
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Mar 2021
    Location
    California
    Posts
    37
    AceMan,

    I?m not looking for GC but GC EAD, I don?t mind not getting GC for a decade.. I need to get rid of this H1B loop and be on GC EAD. From what you said, it looks like one time opportunity for Oct 2021 visa bulletin for my PD nov 2016 EB3I to be in date of filling chart. Jobs can be found at later time but not GC EAD. What do you say?

  9. #3809
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    AceMan,

    I?m not looking for GC but GC EAD, I don?t mind not getting GC for a decade.. I need to get rid of this H1B loop and be on GC EAD. From what you said, it looks like one time opportunity for Oct 2021 visa bulletin for my PD nov 2016 EB3I to be in date of filling chart. Jobs can be found at later time but not GC EAD. What do you say?
    Hi, working objectively on the current scenario is prudent action in your case. If you have a good offer i would say go for it. There is still a year atleast for your date to become current and also most importantly, although it may be allowed in FD, USCIS may not accept FD's for some time and only rely on FAD.

  10. #3810
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    Hi

    @idliman, and Gurus
    I have a job offer handy with me, but this aggressive final action date moment, where 2013 is current in EB3 ( which I thought would not be current for next 50-60 years ) do you think Nov 2016 EB3 might be in Date of filling by oct 2021 visa bulletin. I am really hesitant to take up the new job offer where I have to go through PERM and that would take 10-14 months and I might miss the opportunity.
    As we only have two more visa bulletins ( Aug, Sep ) do you think are there any chances for Nov 2016 EB3 applicant in DOF with this momentum.

    Also, do you think the visa wastage for FY2021 will decide the Date of filling for FY2022? Any thoughts on how much would be the wastage with this current situation. Why would DOL move the DOF if they think there might be wastage for FY2021.
    You have to take the call based on the pros and cons. If I were in your place, I would wait it out till October bulletin (to be released in mid September) at least to take a decision. Do you think that you will never ever get a good or equivalent job opportunity if you waited the next 4 months instead of accepting the current offer? If the answer to that question is yes, then you should take up that offer. I personally never came across any job opportunity that was worth adding 5-10 years to my GC/GC-EAD wait.

  11. #3811
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Hi,

    Can anyone recommend a good civil surgeon for getting the I-693 medicals done in the Atlanta and nearby region?

    Thanks!
    Would really appreciate if anyone from Atlanta area would recommend a civil surgeon...Thanks in advance!

  12. #3812
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    AceMan,

    I?m not looking for GC but GC EAD, I don?t mind not getting GC for a decade.. I need to get rid of this H1B loop and be on GC EAD. From what you said, it looks like one time opportunity for Oct 2021 visa bulletin for my PD nov 2016 EB3I to be in date of filling chart. Jobs can be found at later time but not GC EAD. What do you say?
    Our immigration needs are always moving targets. Last year around same time, I would have settled for GC EAD in June 2021.

    Fast forward one year I don’t have GC EAD yet, but I did not bother to expedite it. I want the actual GC. With the administration change, I am happy staying back in H1 till get the actual GC.

    I did not say October 2021 is a one time deal. The covid 19 pandemic is still raging at many parts of the world and it will take some 2-3 years for things to normalize in EB.

    On another note this is actually a good time to pass the fairness bill.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  13. #3813
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    Telegram group with what looks like very useful scraped data: https://t.me/GreenCardUpdates

    Found link on Trackitt.

    I am at LIN but SRC looks like a total sh**show.
    Just attaching the status update file for NSC from this Telegram group. I found it pretty useful. Similar images for MSC and SRC are available in the group and I think they have started posting again every day.

    photo_2021-06-17_21-03-45.jpg

  14. #3814
    Freshman
    Join Date
    Jun 2021
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    1
    Hello Experts,

    Looking for some advice.
    My PD is May 20,2011 (EB2) and last year in October I filed I-140 in EB3 along with I-485 (EB2-EB3 downgrade) in the Texas service center. I haven't applied for I-140 premium processing yet. I haven't received bio-metrics appointment yet.

    As per the July visa bulletin, my priority date is current in EB2 as well. My lawyer suggested that I could think about interfiling and replacing EB3 based I-140 (currently pending) to approved EB2 based I-140 for my pending I-485.

    Here are my questions/concerns. Appreciate your inputs:
    - If I go with interfiling, what happens to my EB3 based I-140? Do they still process it?- I'm concerned about EB2 dates retrogression. By interfiling I'll lose my spot in the EB3 queue.
    - If I don't do interfiling and stay in the EB3 queue, try to get my EB3 I-140 approved in premium processing. Not sure if I that's a faster route to get GC.- Is it possible to submit medicals with this interfiling request?

  15. #3815
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Mar 2021
    Location
    California
    Posts
    37
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    You have to take the call based on the pros and cons. If I were in your place, I would wait it out till October bulletin (to be released in mid September) at least to take a decision. Do you think that you will never ever get a good or equivalent job opportunity if you waited the next 4 months instead of accepting the current offer? If the answer to that question is yes, then you should take up that offer. I personally never came across any job opportunity that was worth adding 5-10 years to my GC/GC-EAD wait.
    Jobs can wait and can be found later, but this is an one time opportunity for the GC EAD for guys like me, I would not like to wait for a decade for the same dates to become current If I miss it for the first time. Do you see are there any chances with this current speed for Nov 2016 EB3 I also think the wastage might be very minimum with current processing speed on documentarily qualified applicants from USCIS ( no stats to support it though, just random info from telegram folks )

  16. #3816
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Mar 2021
    Location
    California
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    37
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Our immigration needs are always moving targets. Last year around same time, I would have settled for GC EAD in June 2021.

    Fast forward one year I don’t have GC EAD yet, but I did not bother to expedite it. I want the actual GC. With the administration change, I am happy staying back in H1 till get the actual GC.

    I did not say October 2021 is a one time deal. The covid 19 pandemic is still raging at many parts of the world and it will take some 2-3 years for things to normalize in EB.

    On another note this is actually a good time to pass the fairness bill.
    Aceman, I personally don?t think there will be this huge spillover like FY2022, I?m expecting around 320k-330k visa numbers or even 350k by end of September to be available for EB with all the US consulates closed across the globe for the entire FY2021. I don?t see such huge number unless another pandemic or war. Do you think there are chances for Nov 2016 EB3 for DOF in oct 2021 VB with such huge spillover and very less wastage 30k-50k in FY2021

  17. #3817
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Mar 2021
    Location
    California
    Posts
    37
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Our immigration needs are always moving targets. Last year around same time, I would have settled for GC EAD in June 2021.

    Fast forward one year I don’t have GC EAD yet, but I did not bother to expedite it. I want the actual GC. With the administration change, I am happy staying back in H1 till get the actual GC.

    I did not say October 2021 is a one time deal. The covid 19 pandemic is still raging at many parts of the world and it will take some 2-3 years for things to normalize in EB.

    On another note this is actually a good time to pass the fairness bill.
    How can we fight for the fairness Bill to pass?

  18. #3818
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    May 2021
    Location
    TX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    How can we fight for the fairness Bill to pass?
    WallStreetBets kind of mass movement has to happen from the backlogged country folks to gain any actionable attention while still staying in the legal ambit.!

  19. #3819
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    Jobs can wait and can be found later, but this is an one time opportunity for the GC EAD for guys like me, I would not like to wait for a decade for the same dates to become current If I miss it for the first time. Do you see are there any chances with this current speed for Nov 2016 EB3 I also think the wastage might be very minimum with current processing speed on documentarily qualified applicants from USCIS ( no stats to support it though, just random info from telegram folks )
    It's too early to predict how the dates can move. At this point we do not know the visibility CO has to the downgrade numbers and visa numbers allocated by USICS. The less information CO has (especially about the downgrades) may be harmful to EB2 folks and at the same time it will turn out to be a gift to EB3 folks. At this point the situation is still very fluid. If I had to give out an educated guess (with all the disclaimers), I could see EB2 at 1/1/2015 and EB3 at 1/1/2017.

  20. #3820
    Sophomore
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    Mar 2021
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    Quote Originally Posted by rave79 View Post
    WallStreetBets kind of mass movement has to happen from the backlogged country folks to gain any actionable attention while still staying in the legal ambit.!
    I don?t think anything like that would happen because we are afraid of doing such activities and our blood is not built for it on the soil of USA.. just saying and no offense, there is no unity we can find as if we are cockroaches. I know how it feels when we faught for S386
    Last edited by Djidondon; 06-20-2021 at 07:54 PM.

  21. #3821
    Quote Originally Posted by shivab55 View Post
    Now the questions,

    1. I believe sending medicals (without rfe) along with Sup J has high chance of acceptance than sending it alone. What do you guys think?
    2. Where to send 485 Sup J(without rfe)? - My original 485 AoS was sent to Phoenix lockbox. So i guess i need to send it to the same address. Do you see anything i am missing?
    1. Yes, you can send the I-693 along with new I-485 Supp J. I am somewhat convinced in the theory that interfiling I-693 has no risk. Of course, USCIS might lose your I-693 just like it normally happens with regular filing too. So far we hear only positive outcome about interfiling.
    2. To the service center or local office that processes your I-485. You can ask EMMA for confirmation. Your attorney will also know this.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  22. #3822
    Quote Originally Posted by neo2021 View Post
    Hello Experts,

    Looking for some advice.
    My PD is May 20,2011 (EB2) and last year in October I filed I-140 in EB3 along with I-485 (EB2-EB3 downgrade) in the Texas service center. I haven't applied for I-140 premium processing yet. I haven't received bio-metrics appointment yet.

    As per the July visa bulletin, my priority date is current in EB2 as well. My lawyer suggested that I could think about interfiling and replacing EB3 based I-140 (currently pending) to approved EB2 based I-140 for my pending I-485.

    Here are my questions/concerns. Appreciate your inputs:
    - If I go with interfiling, what happens to my EB3 based I-140? Do they still process it?- I'm concerned about EB2 dates retrogression. By interfiling I'll lose my spot in the EB3 queue.
    - If I don't do interfiling and stay in the EB3 queue, try to get my EB3 I-140 approved in premium processing. Not sure if I that's a faster route to get GC.- Is it possible to submit medicals with this interfiling request?
    EB2I FA is at 01JUN11. It should reach 01DEC11 soon. Your PD of 20MAY21 has no chance of retrogressing for 1 to 2 years. You should get GC before that.

    Make sure that USCIS has your latest I-693 first. For the folks who did downgrades, I don't think many approvals have come through. Others who are actively following data might be able to advise you on this. Once your FA is current, USCIS goes with I-485 filing date for order of processing. So downgrading or cancelling downgrade request should not impact as long as USCIS has time to process your request. Then you go back to I-485 processing queue.

    One can only make educated guesses for your questions. We don't know how they actually work inside. So get as much input and make best decision on the available information.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  23. #3823
    Experts ,
    Like many others, I filed I-485 in Oct 2020(PD - 04/2012 EB3) with Texas service center. Still waiting for EAD/fingerprinting.
    I am relocating early next month from Massachusetts to California. I will still continue to work remotely for the same employer.
    Employer is filling new LCA/H1B for the new location(home office).
    My question is, can the timing of my move have any effect on the I-485 processing ?
    If the biometrics appointment is sent around the time of my move , will I be able to reschedule it in the new location ?
    As some cases get transferred to FO and if that happens in my case and it's the local Mass FO , will I be able to get that changed after the move?
    Once I move and change the address on USCIS website , can that cause unnecessary delays ?
    Anything else that I should be concerned of ?

    Appreciate any suggestions.

  24. #3824
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
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    323
    Quote Originally Posted by Djidondon View Post
    I don?t think anything like that would happen because we are afraid of doing such activities and our blood is not built for it on the soil of USA.. just saying and no offense, there is no unity we can find as if we are cockroaches. I know how it feels when we faught for S386
    I do not see anything illegal being done by wallstreetbets. They are doing the exact same thing that the big hedge funds do. There have been clips of Jim Cramer in his moments of honesty admitting to hedge funds moving the stocks in a certain direction. The reason the wallstreet is angry is because the little guys are using their own game against them. The lawmakers are angry because their donors are being affected. It falls into the usual category of being legal if rich do it, but illegal if the little man does it.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 06-21-2021 at 09:03 AM.

  25. #3825
    Sensei
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    San Francisco
    Posts
    84
    I am a layman, so excuse me. But cannot understand why EB2's of 2012 would not downgrade to EB3.

    EB2 final action date: 1 Jun 11, Filing date: 1 Dec 11
    EB3 final action date: 1 Jan 13, Filing date: 1 Feb 14

    All 2012 dates are covered by EB3.

    Context: PD Feb 2012. Thinking of (a) joining old employer; (b) whether to continue on EB2 or to file EB3 I140.
    Charlie's call on 6/28 should provide some clarity

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