EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[Sebiswaiting]

Seeing 1 day, 3 days, 1 week movements in eb2 for so long, this 6 month move seems like a light year. congratulations to all whose dates are current.

I am considering that USCIS and Charlie has a much better view of downgrades, and that reflects in FD moving 1 month for eb3 and 5 months for eb2. I feel EB2 FAD will move closer to FD by September and EB3 FAD will advance stop bit short of current FD.

Also as someone said above, I feel there is faster move in Aug bulletin, and minimal in Sept, to allow a good 1.5 month of just processing existing files.

I hope that charlie is moving the dates considering wastage too as he usually careful in not giving extra.

My PD is June2015 eb2, joined a new firm 2 months back, so my case will have to go through full process, even if it gets current..Long way still

[abcx13]

Guess I'll be current in July visa bulletin but haven't even received bio-metric appointments yet or no progress what-so-ever other than the receipt notification that was mailed out in Feb-2021. This is so frustrating.

I am in same situation. I am San Francisco ASC. You?

[abcx13]

I think both EB2 And EB3 will reach the current Filling dates in next bulletin and then will not move for Sept Bulletin.

Basing this based on last 2 years of movements in Aug and Sept bulletin.

This will give USCIS up to 2 months to catch up and approve GC in FY2021 for everyone current as of 1st August (yup, wishful thinking).

Prediction for August VB:
EB2I - 01 Dec 2011
EB3I - 01 Feb 2014

I keep seeing posts from people that USCIS really picks up speed and issues a ton of GCs in the last quarter. Is there data for this anywhere, just out of curiosity?

[rohanvus]

Hi Experts,

Need some word of wisdom as am feeling drained out in this long wait for GC .
My PD is Dec 2,2011 (EB2) and last year in October i filed I-485 with EB2-EB3 downgrade .
I applied for upgrading I-140 to PP and application was delivered to USCIS on June 10th and till date nothing changed - as per lawyer , seems PP request was rejected (thought we havent yet received any response back from USCIS)

I-140 with EB3 may take another 2 years to get approved under regular processing ( with PP now being rejected) . On other hand , even if USCIS accepts DOF in July , i dont qualify there too because missed it by 1 day under EB2 . So pretty much no luck on either front

Having an approved I-140 is more peace of mind at this point as that assures the AOS pending status
Should i aim for filing under EB2 (incase it every covers by PD in near future) Or should I continue to try PP for EB3-140 ?

Anything you can advise will be greatly appreciated

[may2011]

I am in same situation. I am San Francisco ASC. You?

same here..Current in July bulletin, No biometrics

[montyp80]

Does anyone know when is the next 'Chat with Charlie' scheduled?

[rsnake]

Does anyone know when is the next 'Chat with Charlie' scheduled?

It's always listed in the visa bulletin. This Friday at 1pmET.

[moonlight]

I became current in July bulletin in EB2. My receipt date is Oct 08, 2020 and I responded to medical RFE in March 2021. I joined a new company on May 03, 2021 after transferring H1B. No EAD so far. Should I file I-485J supplement to avoid any questions during N-400 that I didn't stay with the petitioning company for a reasonable time? After filing I-485 J supplement, my current company will become petitioning company where I am going to stay for longer time anyway. I want to know experts' thoughts on this.

[rsnake]

I became current in July bulletin in EB2. My receipt date is Oct 08, 2020 and I responded to medical RFE in March 2021. I joined a new company on May 03, 2021 after transferring H1B. No EAD so far. Should I file I-485J supplement to avoid any questions during N-400 that I didn't stay with the petitioning company for a reasonable time? After filing I-485 J supplement, my current company will become petitioning company where I am going to stay for longer time anyway. I want to know experts' thoughts on this.

When USCIS looks at your case again, they will see the H1 transfer to a different company and figure out that you're not working for the original company anymore and MAY reject the I-485 application assuming (correctly) that you don't intend to rejoin that company after getting GC.

If your previous employer withdraws your I-140 (even after 6 months after I-140 approval) USCIS officer must issue a NOID on your I-485, to which you'll have to reply with a 485j and hope they accept it. If your 485 gets denied then you'll have to start from filing labor and getting approval with the new company which is taking 2 years by itself nowadays, by which the dates can retrogress because of no more family based spillover. MTR or even a lawsuit won't help because the denial will be legitimate. You're playing with fire by not filing the 485j which is a simple form with no filing fees.

[LightAtEndOfTunnel]

I am in same situation. I am San Francisco ASC. You?

San Marcos, CA, ASC

[LightAtEndOfTunnel]

Hi Experts,

Need some word of wisdom as am feeling drained out in this long wait for GC .
My PD is Dec 2,2011 (EB2) and last year in October i filed I-485 with EB2-EB3 downgrade .
I applied for upgrading I-140 to PP and application was delivered to USCIS on June 10th and till date nothing changed - as per lawyer , seems PP request was rejected (thought we havent yet received any response back from USCIS)

I-140 with EB3 may take another 2 years to get approved under regular processing ( with PP now being rejected) . On other hand , even if USCIS accepts DOF in July , i dont qualify there too because missed it by 1 day under EB2 . So pretty much no luck on either front

Having an approved I-140 is more peace of mind at this point as that assures the AOS pending status
Should i aim for filing under EB2 (incase it every covers by PD in near future) Or should I continue to try PP for EB3-140 ?

Anything you can advise will be greatly appreciated

People have tried applying for PP multiple times with some success. The only flip side is you need to pay like $200-$300 for lawyer's fee for each filing. If you want to hop on EB2 queue then you may need to interfile your I-485 to pick up I-140 that was approved for EB2 (there is a clearly defined USCIS procedure for that). However it's unlikely that EB2 FAD will get that far in financial year 2021. Your best bet is to push for EB3.

[newyorker123]

Is there an expedite process for H4 EAD too ? Or does it exist only for AOS EAD applicants ? Please advise.

[iamdeb]

GM Friends..My PD (5/23/2011 EB2-I) is current as per July bulletin. I didn't file for downgrade last year. Couple of questions for the experts:

1. Is it recommended to submit my medical (I-693) along with the I-485 next month?
2. Also, will applying for just I-485 and not for EAD/AP along with it help in processing my I-485 faster? Any pros/cons with this approach ?

Thanks!

[vsivarama]

Hi Experts,

Need some word of wisdom as am feeling drained out in this long wait for GC .
My PD is Dec 2,2011 (EB2) and last year in October i filed I-485 with EB2-EB3 downgrade .
I applied for upgrading I-140 to PP and application was delivered to USCIS on June 10th and till date nothing changed - as per lawyer , seems PP request was rejected (thought we havent yet received any response back from USCIS)

I-140 with EB3 may take another 2 years to get approved under regular processing ( with PP now being rejected) . On other hand , even if USCIS accepts DOF in July , i dont qualify there too because missed it by 1 day under EB2 . So pretty much no luck on either front

Having an approved I-140 is more peace of mind at this point as that assures the AOS pending status
Should i aim for filing under EB2 (incase it every covers by PD in near future) Or should I continue to try PP for EB3-140 ?

Anything you can advise will be greatly appreciated

Your best bet is to try and downgrade. You can give them a couple of weeks to find your original labor certification and try again. If you are trying for EB2, you will need to file the entire 485 application. You will NOT qualify for interfiling as your EB3 i140 is not yet approved and that's the basis for your current 485. So you cannot just simplify carry your current 485 application to EB2.

[vsivarama]

GM Friends..My PD (5/23/2011 EB2-I) is current as per July bulletin. I didn't file for downgrade last year. Couple of questions for the experts:

1. Is it recommended to submit my medical (I-693) along with the I-485 next month?
2. Also, will applying for just I-485 and not for EAD/AP along with it help in processing my I-485 faster? Any pros/cons with this approach ?

Thanks!

1. Yes, God yes!! you have till at least 31st of July to file your application. I think that's enough time to get your medicals done.
2. I don't think so. It's always better to have EAD as a contingency in case of unexpected job loss. You may also qualify for better opportunities with an EAD.

[srimurthy]

I keep seeing posts from people that USCIS really picks up speed and issues a ton of GCs in the last quarter. Is there data for this anywhere, just out of curiosity?

That may sound true during a regular year, when through the first 3 quarters they work in the limits on 23% odd of the 140K and then in the last quarter try to use the spill overs whether across in same category or spill down that are unused.
But this and last year and may be next year are special cases where instead of 140K we have 200K plus and if for the first three quarters they proceeded and used the 23% (which I doubt), then how much can they allocated in the last quarter? Because of overload and covid working conditions the approvals may be more but that would not be substantial numbers to use 200K plus numbers available. As the EADs or RFEs are not coming in droves everyone is expecting a huge wastage and I would not be surprised if it is around and above 50K. And that is an atrocious situation considering that we had cases filed for around 10 years.

[newyorker123]

Need help:
I have a Feb 2012 EB2 PD. I changed multiple companies, and my new company is just starting up on PERM.
Given current PERM timeframes, I have a long way (1.5+ years) ahead of me before I can apply for I485. Then, there are uncertainties like PERM audits etc.
I am thinking of moving to my old company, but I might need to take a cut in compensation.

- Could the timeframes retrogress badly in next 1-2 years ? Should I take this cut in compensation and get I485 in asap and get the EAD ?
- If I join old company, do I file I140 and downgrade asap to EB3 (so that I can file by end-July, best case) ? Or hold on for EB2 dates to move (current EB2 filing date is Dec 11).

Please advise.

[insane.yogi]

Hello everyone, I have a question regarding my GC process and looking to get feedback on the general approach from gurus on this forum

- I have a EB2 priority date from my previous employer of Oct 2011.
- I switched jobs in 2019, PERM process was initiated in 2019 and after COVID delays (recruitment process to be specific since offices were closed), the new PERM was submitted to DOL in Jan 2021.
- With latest PERM trends and I'm estimating to get PERM approval by Aug 2021 and file concurrently for I-140/485

My question, should I wait till Oct to file in EB2 ? (since USCIS may only accept FADs) Or should i concurrently file in EB3 directly (FAD is current) ? Does it even matter at this point if i file in EB2 or EB3 in Aug/Sept time frame? Looking forward for feedback.

Hello Gurus. hoping to get some feedback on above query.

[AceMan]

Hello everyone, I have a question regarding my GC process and looking to get feedback on the general approach from gurus on this forum

- I have a EB2 priority date from my previous employer of Oct 2011.
- I switched jobs in 2019, PERM process was initiated in 2019 and after COVID delays (recruitment process to be specific since offices were closed), the new PERM was submitted to DOL in Jan 2021.
- With latest PERM trends and I'm estimating to get PERM approval by Aug 2021 and file concurrently for I-140/485

My question, should I wait till Oct to file in EB2 ? (since USCIS is only accepting FADs) Or should i concurrently file in EB3 directly (FAD will be current) ? Does it even matter at this point if i file in EB2 or EB3 in Aug/Sept time frame? Looking forward for feedback.

The perm has to be approved first before applying for 140.

[insane.yogi]

Aceman - im assuming my PERM is approved. the perm processing dates have dropped from 228 days to 180 days in last month. hoping this will get my perm approved in next 2 - 3 weeks.

[gammaray]

Need help:
I have a Feb 2012 EB2 PD. I changed multiple companies, and my new company is just starting up on PERM.
Given current PERM timeframes, I have a long way (1.5+ years) ahead of me before I can apply for I485. Then, there are uncertainties like PERM audits etc.
I am thinking of moving to my old company, but I might need to take a cut in compensation.

- Could the timeframes retrogress badly in next 1-2 years ? Should I take this cut in compensation and get I485 in asap and get the EAD ?
- If I join old company, do I file I140 and downgrade asap to EB3 (so that I can file by end-July, best case) ? Or hold on for EB2 dates to move (current EB2 filing date is Dec 11).

Please advise.

Imo, it's extremely unlikely that Eb2 dates will retrogress below Feb 2012, in the coming years. There is sufficient spillover, even with all the wastage, for that to not happen. At a minimum eb3 will absolutely be at that date. So my suggestion to to continue in your current job if that's better for your career and you should be able to concurrently file I-140/I-485 whenever your PERM is approved in the future. If you are uncertain about your current job or any other circumstances that make it important for you to get the gc status right now then it would make sense to go back to the old job.

[maverick2010]

Friends,

I've a new job offer and it's been 180 days since I filed my 485 & my PD is current.

1. If I take up the new offer should I file I-485J immediately or after the RFE?
2. What if I join the new company and GC gets approved without i-485J RFE?


Thank you!

[gammaray]

Seeing 1 day, 3 days, 1 week movements in eb2 for so long, this 6 month move seems like a light year. congratulations to all whose dates are current.

I am considering that USCIS and Charlie has a much better view of downgrades, and that reflects in FD moving 1 month for eb3 and 5 months for eb2. I feel EB2 FAD will move closer to FD by September and EB3 FAD will advance stop bit short of current FD.

Also as someone said above, I feel there is faster move in Aug bulletin, and minimal in Sept, to allow a good 1.5 month of just processing existing files.

I hope that charlie is moving the dates considering wastage too as he usually careful in not giving extra.

My PD is June2015 eb2, joined a new firm 2 months back, so my case will have to go through full process, even if it gets current..Long way still

On a quick note, a light year is a measure of distance, and not a measure of time, so your statement is not accurate ; -). A more appropriate analogy would be general relativity - the 1 week movements previously were like the PD's were near a black hole where the time slowed down, and now with the spillover the PD's are more in earth's orbit.

With the aggressive advancing I think eb3 2015 may become current in FY 2022 (atleast the filing dates). Beyond FY 2022 is an unknown but I really am optimistic in the next year or two there will be legislative change that will reduce the backlogs ( I know folks are generally very cynical about any legislative change)

[abcx13]

Has anyone ever filed an FOIA request to get pending I485 inventory data from the USCIS that they used to publish?

It's a $25 fee and they have to reply within 20 days. Reddy Neumann supposedly filed one for I485 pending inventory a week ago or something but not sure if they will share if they get it.

[montyp80]

It's always listed in the visa bulletin. This Friday at 1pmET.

No wonder it wasn't showing up on google search!

Thank you for sharing that bud!