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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #6876
    I understand. However, we dont want to get into the politics of this. It is their country, their ideals and their economic needs. They want to show the world that they give equal weight to all countries. It is more politics than fairness. They will only learn when people start leaving or companies start moving out. It is easy to challenge and change an error/mistake (visa recapture) than challenge and change their ideals and needs (portraying diversity). We will never get them to remove the quota limits and they will reject the letter just by reading the first part.


    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Idea is not to increase per country quota - but remove it altogether. EB immigration is about economic need - country of origin should not play a part in it. As far as ensuring diversity is concerned - there already is a diversity lottery.

  2. #6877
    Sure it is their country. But it is fair for us to try to influence and change their thinking based on rational arguments that benefit both sides. e.g. a simple thought here - if there is an employer here who wants to hire a foreign person where the skill is not locally available;what sense it makes to subject that to any quota whatsoever? It's stupid to say the least. Honestly if you think about it that would be one way to make education less expensive in US and have the population value education more.

    Quote Originally Posted by casantino View Post
    I understand. However, we dont want to get into the politics of this. It is their country, their ideals and their economic needs. They want to show the world that they give equal weight to all countries. It is more politics than fairness. They will only learn when people start leaving or companies start moving out. It is easy to challenge and change an error/mistake (visa recapture) than challenge and change their ideals and needs (portraying diversity). We will never get them to remove the quota limits and they will reject the letter just by reading the first part.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  3. #6878
    really? yeah probably not because of this silly petition thingy..but otherwise we will see

    Quote Originally Posted by casantino View Post
    I understand. However, we dont want to get into the politics of this. It is their country, their ideals and their economic needs. They want to show the world that they give equal weight to all countries. It is more politics than fairness. They will only learn when people start leaving or companies start moving out. It is easy to challenge and change an error/mistake (visa recapture) than challenge and change their ideals and needs (portraying diversity). We will never get them to remove the quota limits and they will reject the letter just by reading the first part.

  4. #6879
    Thank you for your support! I will ask NIU folks to get some media exposure. I am sure they are working on this. I heard they were trying to put an ad on Washington Post and NY Times. I will ask them.

    Quote Originally Posted by gchopeful123 View Post
    I hope this movement picks up, we need a lot more than 10,000 entries (so far ~9500).

    qblogfan,
    Is there a way to get this on the media using your Chinese contacts? I dont think immigration voice guys are going to help on this.

  5. #6880
    Yes, I agree. Although we are not citizens of this country, we have the right to speak out. We are not happy about this long waiting and we need to let them know. That's the whole purpose of doing petition. Otherwise they will never know we are unhappy. It's similar with working in a company. If you are unhappy about your salary, you need to let the boss know, otherwise they think you are happy about the low salary.

    They set the 7% limit to prevent a dorminant group of immigrants. It's not for fairness to every country. They don't want to have a group of immigrants with the same ethnic background and it may endanger the power of the white people. Apparently it is a ridiculous rule because the mexicans are the real threat to their power. Indian and Chinese immigrants are not the real threat to their power and our number is less than 10% of mexican population in the US.

    In this country it takes years to pass a bill. When they pass the bill, it might be too late already. The endless waiting of GC has killed all the creation and motivation of all these immigrants. Also many talented people have returned to their home countries. If you cheat people and seek a refugee GC, it only takes several months. If you work hard and stay honest and seek for an EB GC, it takes years. Isn't it ridiculous?

    The reason for the delay of passing this kind of bills is that there is too much compromise and resistance. Too many different groups are fighting for their own benefits. The spanish group in the congress blocked all the EB GC bills because they want to get benefits for illegals. Although many congress people know a visa reacpture bill is good for this country, they just can't pass it. There are too much bull shit and too much fighting to pass any bill in this country.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Sure it is their country. But it is fair for us to try to influence and change their thinking based on rational arguments that benefit both sides. e.g. a simple thought here - if there is an employer here who wants to hire a foreign person where the skill is not locally available;what sense it makes to subject that to any quota whatsoever? It's stupid to say the least. Honestly if you think about it that would be one way to make education less expensive in US and have the population value education more.
    Last edited by qblogfan; 09-09-2011 at 01:43 PM.

  6. #6881
    Demand data is out. C-3200, I-4875.

    http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html

    An increase of just 75 for India.

  7. #6882

  8. #6883
    The sqeuaky wheel gets the greese. (pardon any spelling mistakes!)

    On another note - nobody would be threat to anybody if everybody focuses on the economic and social benefits of immigration.

    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    Yes, I agree. Although we are not citizens of this country, we have the right to speak out. We are not happy about this long waiting and we need to let them know. That's the whole purpose of doing petition. Otherwise they will never know we are unhappy. It's similar with working in a company. If you are unhappy about your salary, you need to let the boss know, otherwise they think you are happy about the low salary.

    They set the 7% limit to prevent a dorminant group of immigrants. It's not for fairness to every country. They don't want to have a group of immigrants with the same ethnic background and it may endanger the power of the white people. Apparently it is a ridiculous rule because the mexicans are the real threat to their power. Indian and Chinese immigrants are not the real threat to their power and our number is less than 10% of mexican population in the US.

    In this country it takes years to pass a bill. When they pass the bill, it might be too late already. The endless waiting of GC has killed all the creation and motivation of all these immigrants. Also many talented people have returned to their home countries. If you cheat people and seek a refugee GC, it only takes several months. If you work hard and stay honest and seek for an EB GC, it takes years. Isn't it ridiculous?

    The reason for the delay of passing this kind of bills is that there is too much compromise and resistance. Too many different groups are fighting for their own benefits. The spanish group in the congress blocked all the EB GC bills because they want to get benefits for illegals. Although many congress people know a visa reacpture bill is good for this country, they just can't pass it. There are too much bull shit and too much fighting to pass any bill in this country.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  9. #6884
    Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.

    1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).

    2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.




    Quote Originally Posted by rdsingh79 View Post
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #6885

    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Demand data is out. C-3200, I-4875.

    http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html

    An increase of just 75 for India.
    Sep EB2 total = 8,275
    Oct EB2 Total = 8350

    A difference of 75. If X is net approvals it X+5. Not sure what is X, as they did not move in Sept X could be zero or very less may be like 500. So PWMB+Porting is not in thousands.

  11. #6886
    Q, point 2 is master catch, I missed it.

    The recent push on EB5 might clash with policy on SO interpretation with regards to EB5C vis-a-vis the student protection act.

    If it indeed true that the student act trumps SO interpret, this will be much needed help to the beleagured EB2IC community.

    I think in bulletin next, EB2C will move by a week at least, and pass Teddy's litmus test.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.

    1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).

    2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.

  12. #6887

    My guess for Oct 2011 Visa Bulletin

    After seeing the text below from 2nd page of demand data. For some reason i think they will move the cut off dates for china and india to capture Future Demand. May be only my heart is working instead of a brain.

    The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply. Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates.

  13. #6888
    Qesehmk, firstly thanks for this forum - keep up the good work.

    WRT this demand data . I have 6/2010 as my PD , i now have some decisions to make - If i calculate it correct should i interpret ~8K demand EB2 India till 1/11. With the rate of available visa's per country in the 1st table ~2.8K. I assume i cannot expect EB2 india to become current in anytime 2012, correct? And i see I should can expect my PD to become current only somewhere in 2013 and +vely in 2014 timeline? Please help me , throw your thoughts.

  14. #6889
    You are right. This shows the fallacy of portings and PWMB. If the total in one month is 75. Then the full year number comes to 1K max. That is too low to believe. So lets make it 2-3K. That is more than enough to cover both of them in this economy.

    Quote Originally Posted by needid View Post
    Sep EB2 total = 8,275
    Oct EB2 Total = 8350

    A difference of 75. If X is net approvals it X+5. Not sure what is X, as they did not move in Sept X could be zero or very less may be like 500. So PWMB+Porting is not in thousands.
    Quote Originally Posted by ravisekhar View Post
    After seeing the text below from 2nd page of demand data. For some reason i think they will move the cut off dates for china and india to capture Future Demand. May be only my heart is working instead of a brain.
    It is wishful thinking but not impossible. I do think that possibly exists - very small though.

    Quote Originally Posted by qriousjunta View Post
    Qesehmk, firstly thanks for this forum - keep up the good work.

    WRT this demand data . I have 6/2010 as my PD , i now have some decisions to make - If i calculate it correct should i interpret ~8K demand EB2 India till 1/11. With the rate of available visa's per country in the 1st table ~2.8K. I assume i cannot expect EB2 india to become current in anytime 2012, correct? And i see I should can expect my PD to become current only somewhere in 2013 and +vely in 2014 timeline? Please help me , throw your thoughts.
    I will say 2014 is more likely.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  15. #6890
    Ok, isn't SO from E1 -> E2 -> E3, and E2ROW -> E2IC.

    Then we shudnt worry about e5C grabbing from above SO kitty neways is it.

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Q, point 2 is master catch, I missed it.

    The recent push on EB5 might clash with policy on SO interpretation with regards to EB5C vis-a-vis the student protection act.

    If it indeed true that the student act trumps SO interpret, this will be much needed help to the beleagured EB2IC community.

    I think in bulletin next, EB2C will move by a week at least, and pass Teddy's litmus test.

  16. #6891
    Its is not about EB5 grabbing from other EBs. Its about EB5C being deprived which can potentially spill over to EB1->EB2->EB2IC.

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Ok, isn't SO from E1 -> E2 -> E3, and E2ROW -> E2IC.

    Then we shudnt worry about e5C grabbing from above SO kitty neways is it.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  17. #6892
    There is about 2400 EB5 primary applicants in the Q right now. So if 65% are chinese, then that;s about 800 non-chinese which translates to approx 2-3K 2012 EB5 demand. So spillover may not necessarily increase. But it wont go to 2-3K as we were fearing.

    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Q,
    Based on the above article nishant posted and FY2010 data China used about 68% of EB5 visas(issued).

    If EB5C is not getting any numbers means FY2012 should expect more spillover from EB5 compared to FY2011?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  18. #6893
    Q,

    If we assume that this demad data is from Apr 15 till Aug 2007,shouldn't the EB2 I be advancing little bit in this coming visa bulletin ?
    My PD is Apr 16 2007.This is the reason for my wishful thinking



    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.

    1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).

    2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.

  19. #6894
    The sliver of EB2I quota is so thin that its entirely possible that the portinsg could consume all that quota. However it is equally possible that the dats could move upto 1-2 months through the year and a couple of weeks per quarter.

    I am sorry I can't be more precise than that. I can imagine your anguish having missed it by 1 day.

    Quote Originally Posted by GCFresher View Post
    Q,

    If we assume that this demad data is from Apr 15 till Aug 2007,shouldn't the EB2 I be advancing little bit in this coming visa bulletin ?
    My PD is Apr 16 2007.This is the reason for my wishful thinking
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #6895

    Why No Visa Bulletin ?

    Today is 2nd friday of the month and visa bulletin is due today. Since it is already 5 PM EST. So, No bulletin. can anyone guess what's causing the delay ?

  21. #6896
    hey guys... Why wouldnt/Shouldnt USCIS move the dates into 2008... Given the known demand to be at 8K ( i understand underlying PWMB is more, but it is still an unknown) and on average we have > 15K spillover from last 4 years... any comments?? why they shouldnt... also if you agree, when would be the right time for this move ? now or next quarter?

  22. #6897
    USCIS/DOS-->FED GOV-->Obama policy


    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    hey guys... Why wouldnt/Shouldnt USCIS move the dates into 2008... Given the known demand to be at 8K ( i understand underlying PWMB is more, but it is still an unknown) and on average we have > 15K spillover from last 4 years... any comments?? why they shouldnt... also if you agree, when would be the right time for this move ? now or next quarter?

  23. #6898

  24. #6899
    VB is out and it is 7/15/2007!

    It looks like Mr.Co is going to do quarter spillover this year!

    It will require 4k-5k visas! It is definitely quarter spillover!

    NIU wrote to the boss of Mr.CO and complained seriously. I think CO's boss told him something.

    Quote Originally Posted by narendarrao View Post
    Last edited by qblogfan; 09-09-2011 at 04:29 PM.

  25. #6900
    Guru
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    825
    I am glad all bears are proved wrong... ok ...at least for this month and congrats to all who are current!!
    Last edited by suninphx; 09-09-2011 at 04:35 PM.

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