Hello Idliman and other seniors/experts,
My Priority Date is EB2 Nov 2015. Like many others I am trying to see when/what are the chances for my PD to get current in the next 2 years.
We all know we have 121k spillover for FY 21 and not all visas are going to be used before Sep 2021.
So far, in FY 2021, for Family Category under 226k limit, they have allocated approx 2500 visas until March 2021. still ~223k to go.
The consulates are open for Immigrant Visas now, but they are processing with limited resources and with a priority now. See below that USCIS published on Apr 30. I am sure many of you might have noticed already
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...itization.html
FB category falls under tier3, EB under tier4. They will process Immediate Relative visas as priority and under tier 1 as you can read above. Which means, FB usage will be very low that we may get ~150k to 160k or even more. I know CO said there will be minimum of 135k, so I am trying to say that the number will be more than 150k for FY 2022(starting from FY 2021). If any bill passes that prevents the spillover then it is totally different discussion.
There are ~490k pending consular apps waiting for interviews. Please see the below tweet for more info.
https://twitter.com/doug_rand/status...58207605903361
So, as some are projecting here and in other platforms, if by Sep 2021, Covid magically disappears and everything became normal, How are they going to process all these pending applications at the consular posts worldwide? Even if they increase the resources to pre-covid level, wouldn't it take time to allocate visa interview slots and process all these according to the priority that USCIS mentioned above.
Where I am going with all this? The FB usage/visa number allocation will still be low into the Q1 of FY2022, i.e October to December 2021 because of huge pending visa applications at consular posts and that FB category is under tier 3.
So, I am expecting another spillover from FB to EB in Oct 2022 as well. I do not know how much it will be, but even if it is 20k, 30k or 50k additional spillover that would be good for EB2/EB3 2015 folks. Most probably EB1 still remains current by Oct 2022 unless there is a significant uptick in EB1 India apps between Oct 2021 and Oct 2022.
Please let me know your inputs or where potentially above scenarios could fail that would impact 2015 PDs.