EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[gs1968]

EB visa wasted in 2020 was an isolated situation due to covid. Still they managed to use 148 K visas for the year.
EB 2021 had 261,000 visas and next 6 months the remaining visas from 261,000 is going to be exclusively available for Eb2 India majority and Eb3 India minority due to embassies still not working as efficiently in pre covid times
So like the previous poster said wait till October to see if 2013 December dates can be reached in October 2021 itself.

The pandemic has certainly shaken things up and it is hard to know where things stand on a month to month basis.Historically the highest number of EB GCs issued in a single FY since 2000 is 246K in 2005 of which India receive 47K. The next highest number is 161K in 2013. Generally annual approvals have ranged between 135K and 160K per year. If all 262K visas are allotted as available this would be unprecedented and historical.

I think the filing patterns may also have changed although this is just my guess and may e easily refuted by the data nerds in this forum. With all the talk of country cap elimination I think the ROW are also probably starting their GC process immediately on getting the H-1B and as most countries are current they are probably filing I-140 and AOS concurrently. This may avoid a lot of RFEs and make it faster unlike applications filed in 2009-10. The H-1B visas taken up by the Indian Multinational software companies has also decreased and 2019 numbers were less than a third of 2014.(combination of Trump and changing business models) This might be opening up more slots for ROW candidates who are filing for GCs faster

For the anti-immigrant crowd allotment of FB visas to EB is the most optimum solution as the recipients are already by and large in the US and merely changing status.This is in contrast to most FB visas which result in net inflow of people into the country. I really hope that the maximum possible numbers are used as it would be a shame to waste it in both categories

[abcx13]

Someone posted this link a while back in this thread.

https://www.greencardly.com/#/I-140
https://www.greencardly.com/#/I-485

Has anyone tried to use this to back into potential downgrade demand and how much AoS demand there is from October?

[nbk1976]

The pandemic has certainly shaken things up and it is hard to know where things stand on a month to month basis.Historically the highest number of EB GCs issued in a single FY since 2000 is 246K in 2005 of which India receive 47K. The next highest number is 161K in 2013. Generally annual approvals have ranged between 135K and 160K per year. If all 262K visas are allotted as available this would be unprecedented and historical.

I think the filing patterns may also have changed although this is just my guess and may e easily refuted by the data nerds in this forum. With all the talk of country cap elimination I think the ROW are also probably starting their GC process immediately on getting the H-1B and as most countries are current they are probably filing I-140 and AOS concurrently. This may avoid a lot of RFEs and make it faster unlike applications filed in 2009-10. The H-1B visas taken up by the Indian Multinational software companies has also decreased and 2019 numbers were less than a third of 2014.(combination of Trump and changing business models) This might be opening up more slots for ROW candidates who are filing for GCs faster

For the anti-immigrant crowd allotment of FB visas to EB is the most optimum solution as the recipients are already by and large in the US and merely changing status.This is in contrast to most FB visas which result in net inflow of people into the country. I really hope that the maximum possible numbers are used as it would be a shame to waste it in both categories

I can?t understand why the USCIS cannot issue conditional green cards valid for 1 year, while the medical and supplemental J can be checked after the issuance. This is the norm with many family based situations. This will speed up the process and ensure all of the folks waiting will get their green cards.

[Moveon]

I can?t understand why the USCIS cannot issue conditional green cards valid for 1 year, while the medical and supplemental J can be checked after the issuance. This is the norm with many family based situations. This will speed up the process and ensure all of the folks waiting will get their green cards.

That might require passing of special amendments to the GC process as this is a new status . A status between the EAD and GC that needs new paper work, official forms (I-XXX) etc .
Plus the extra overhead for them which they will not undertake. I doubt if it will ever happen .
Lets hope they have interview waivers and use the quota.

[Positive]

The pandemic has certainly shaken things up and it is hard to know where things stand on a month to month basis.Historically the highest number of EB GCs issued in a single FY since 2000 is 246K in 2005 of which India receive 47K. The next highest number is 161K in 2013. Generally annual approvals have ranged between 135K and 160K per year. If all 262K visas are allotted as available this would be unprecedented and historical.

I think the filing patterns may also have changed although this is just my guess and may e easily refuted by the data nerds in this forum. With all the talk of country cap elimination I think the ROW are also probably starting their GC process immediately on getting the H-1B and as most countries are current they are probably filing I-140 and AOS concurrently. This may avoid a lot of RFEs and make it faster unlike applications filed in 2009-10. The H-1B visas taken up by the Indian Multinational software companies has also decreased and 2019 numbers were less than a third of 2014.(combination of Trump and changing business models) This might be opening up more slots for ROW candidates who are filing for GCs faster

For the anti-immigrant crowd allotment of FB visas to EB is the most optimum solution as the recipients are already by and large in the US and merely changing status.This is in contrast to most FB visas which result in net inflow of people into the country. I really hope that the maximum possible numbers are used as it would be a shame to waste it in both categories

Considering the number of asylees had dropped way more than the increase in EB numbers, I am sure the capacity is there. Whether the will/intent to use up the extra visa is there or not is the question. Funny how the so called "grassroots organizers" for the backlogged community are eerily quiet when a low hanging fruit presents itself. The easiest and most impactful thing to do for them right now is to use their influence to ensure that the extra visas are fully used up as per existing law- a much lighter lift than getting a new law done. This is what makes me believe that these organizers are in it for the money or power, and not to help anyone but themselves.

[nbk1976]

That might require passing of special amendments to the GC process as this is a new status . A status between the EAD and GC that needs new paper work, official forms (I-XXX) etc .
Plus the extra overhead for them which they will not undertake. I doubt if it will ever happen .
Lets hope they have interview waivers and use the quota.

Most of the applicants are pre-adjudicated, aren't they? Their medicals are expired, sure, and they just have to reconfirm the job offer since they have been pending for years.

Anyway, let's hope they don't waste the visas.

[Moveon]

Most of the applicants are pre-adjudicated, aren't they? Their medicals are expired, sure, and they just have to reconfirm the job offer since they have been pending for years.

Anyway, let's hope they don't waste the visas.

Pre adjucated is only until April 30th 2010. That might be 15K GCs at most left in that time period to be cleared. They will breeze through it and then hit the new applications. They are the troublesome ones. I don't mind it if they charge more to speed up the process by hiring more contract staff . Even 1K per application is something anyone will pay .
My major concern is TSC. They need to move fast .

[phkb2020]

What are the chances DOS will have to stall the FA dates movement for EB2 and EB3 to allow TSC to catch up? It looks like TSC is about 3-4 months behind NSC and with rapid progression of dates in March and April visa bulletins they will continue to fall behind.

[vsivarama]

What are the chances DOS will have to stall the FA dates movement for EB2 and EB3 to allow TSC to catch up? It looks like TSC is about 3-4 months behind NSC and with rapid progression of dates in March and April visa bulletins they will continue to fall behind.

I do not know the inner workings of DOS, but it's not DOS' job to provide cover for USCIS. I have never seen the same strategy applied for ROW. If they are current that means DOS has enough visa numbers supply to meet the demand. Over the years, I have not seen them set a cutoff date for ROW lest USCIS' feelings get hurt.

[FlowerPot]

Pre adjucated is only until April 30th 2010. That might be 15K GCs at most left in that time period to be cleared. They will breeze through it and then hit the new applications. They are the troublesome ones. I don't mind it if they charge more to speed up the process by hiring more contract staff . Even 1K per application is something anyone will pay .
My major concern is TSC. They need to move fast .

How long do they usually take for Pre-adjudication - 6-9 months? Even ROW and other countries should have the same process timelines for pre-adjudication isn't it? If my understanding is right, when they push the FA dates to 2011 by end of this FY (last quarter) for EB 2/3 I, then, by that time frame many of Oct'20 cases would have already been under processing state for close to an year and have been adjudicated right?

[Positive]

date movement is based on visa availabilty not processing speed. So, the dates will move whether or not USCIS issues the visas. The USCIS will just increase processing time. They are already showing 1-3 years processing time for the I-485. Not sure they can increase the lower limit beyond 1 year though. If they do, what does the visa availabilty for date movement even mean, or for that matter having two dates and charts A and B. Someone is bound to challenge the legal basis of the whole trainwreck of a visa bulletin at that point.

[phkb2020]

date movement is based on visa availabilty not processing speed. So, the dates will move whether or not USCIS issues the visas. The USCIS will just increase processing time. They are already showing 1-3 years processing time for the I-485. Not sure they can increase the lower limit beyond 1 year though. If they do, what does the visa availabilty for date movement even mean, or for that matter having two dates and charts A and B. Someone is bound to challenge the legal basis of the whole trainwreck of a visa bulletin at that point.

Fair enough. The reason I ask is if NSC zooms ahead of TSC significantly or if processing delays hamper both service centers, and DOS keeps advancing dates due to lack of visibility of demand, we'll have a repeat of 2007 and 2012. Retrogression will come into play which DHS has been keen to avoid in recent history (two part visa bulletin and what not).

[imdeng]

But there is not even any risk here moveon. USCIS has no policy on how long a PERM should be valid, how long an I-140 should be valid. Do they expect people to not progress in their career for 15 freaking years!! So don't worry too much my friends. If you are moving especially with the same employer and same line of work - just do it.

Q and I have shared this opinion before - but just to add my voice - don't let immigration complexities stop you from progressing in your job and taking new opportunities. Don't waste good years of your life worrying about what USCIS might do - you do what's best for you, your family and your career.

Not that my case is representative at all - but I had the option to leave a job I was miserable at to take a job that I love, at a place I love which was different than the job in my PERM (teaching vs research). I took it. USCIS did not bat an eye.

[abcx13]

This user is correct. Processing times for TSC have increased from 12.5 - 31.5 to now 12.5 - 51.5.

Holy cow!

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

Is this in response to Charlie's comments??!

NSC is now showing same 12.5-51.5 month processing times as TSC for 485s.

Does not bode well despite CO's comments?

[qesehmk]

Q and I have shared this opinion before - but just to add my voice - don't let immigration complexities stop you from progressing in your job and taking new opportunities. Don't waste good years of your life worrying about what USCIS might do - you do what's best for you, your family and your career.

Not that my case is representative at all - but I had the option to leave a job I was miserable at to take a job that I love, at a place I love which was different than the job in my PERM (teaching vs research). I took it. USCIS did not bat an eye.

Good to hear from you imdeng. Hope you are doing well.

I totally agree with this. Folks - this is the whole reason why our blog exists. If one person reads such advice and benefits from it, it's all worth running this blog.

[vsivarama]

NSC is now showing same 12.5-51.5 month processing times as TSC for 485s.

Does not bode well despite CO's comments?

If USCIS wanted to be efficient, they can hold back on approving new EAD's and AP's. They can still honor renewals. This would expand their capacity to approve additional GCs. At this point I would be happy if my EAD is not approved at all and instead get a GC end of this year.

[ak7419]

If USCIS wanted to be efficient, they can hold back on approving new EAD's and AP's. They can still honor renewals. This would expand their capacity to approve additional GCs. At this point I would be happy if my EAD is not approved at all and instead get a GC end of this year.

Also, when an applicant's PD is current, and if the same applicant is renewing their EAD/AP, they should approve their GC instead of approving their EAD/AP!

[Spectator]

There's been some interesting posts recently, discussing the processing capabilities to handle the much larger numbers of EB visas available in FY2021 and FY2022.

I can't find many of them because they have been subsumed by the large number of off-topic posts.

Since the vast majority of EB approvals are AOS, handled by USCIS, I thought it might be useful to contribute some historical figures for AOS approvals.

AOS APPROVALS ONLY
- FY --------- FB ------ EB ----- IR ------ Ref/Asy - Diversity --- Other --- Total
FY1999 ----- 28,325 -- 41,975 - 106,334 ---- 42,852 ----- 2,894 -- 22,413 - 244,793
FY2000 ----- 59,849 -- 84,971 - 188,383 ---- 65,941 ----- 2,892 -- 40,369 - 442,405
FY2001 ----- 73,308 - 137,785 - 273,981 --- 108,506 ----- 1,955 -- 57,724 - 653,259
FY2002 ----- 63,528 - 134,918 - 307,506 --- 126,084 ----- 1,989 -- 45,280 - 679,305
FY2003 ----- 29,112 -- 52,552 - 178,523 ---- 44,927 ----- 2,597 -- 39,705 - 347,416
FY2004 ----- 64,427 - 128,238 - 269,964 ---- 71,230 ----- 2,031 -- 48,031 - 583,921
FY2005 ----- 70,459 - 219,999 - 266,851 --- 142,962 ----- 1,850 -- 36,181 - 738,302
FY2006 ----- 79,709 - 121,587 - 357,127 --- 216,454 ----- 1,853 -- 42,518 - 819,248
FY2007 ----- 52,059 - 133,099 - 277,188 --- 136,125 ----- 1,360 -- 21,216 - 621,047
FY2008 ----- 56,899 - 149,542 - 251,090 --- 166,392 ----- 1,440 -- 15,205 - 640,568
FY2009 ----- 39,787 - 127,135 - 309,073 --- 177,368 ----- 1,277 -- 13,136 - 667,776
FY2010 ----- 26,279 - 136,010 - 252,842 --- 136,291 ----- 1,571 -- 13,583 - 566,576
FY2011 ----- 28,346 - 124,384 - 243,174 --- 168,460 ----- 1,617 -- 14,111 - 580,092
FY2012 ----- 18,560 - 126,016 - 239,986 --- 150,614 ----- 1,356 -- 11,027 - 547,559
FY2013 ----- 26,415 - 140,009 - 232,105 --- 119,630 ----- 1,505 -- 11,138 - 530,802
FY2014 ----- 23,202 - 129,645 - 228,128 --- 134,242 ----- 1,331 -- 18,578 - 535,126
FY2015 ----- 16,783 - 121,978 - 230,194 --- 151,995 ----- 1,268 -- 20,097 - 542,315
FY2016 ----- 15,116 - 113,640 - 257,302 --- 157,425 ----- 1,048 -- 20,896 - 565,427
FY2017 ----- 13,478 - 113,330 - 252,231 --- 146,003 ------- 918 -- 23,126 - 549,086
FY2018 ----- 12,448 - 110,347 - 237,321 --- 185,909 ----- 1,117 -- 20,742 - 567,884
FY2019 ----- 18,999 - 110,689 - 311,474 --- 106,911 ----- 1,003 -- 23,437 - 572,513
FY2020 ** -- 11,433 - 132,459 - 218,243 ---- 64,491 --- Unknown -- 22,681 - 449,307

Average
2009-2019 -- 21,765 - 123,017 - 253,985 --- 148,623 ----- 1,274 -- 17,261 - 565,923
Average % ---- 3.8% --- 21.7% --- 44.9% ----- 26.3% ------ 0.2% ---- 3.1% -- 100.0%

EB @ 221,000 ---------- 39.1% ( 180.0% Average )
EB @ 275,000 ---------- 48.6% ( 224.0% Average )

** Approximate data from various USCIS and DOS reports

Unfortunately, most figures for FY2020 are not available, since this needs USCIS to publish them. I doubt that will happen for another 6 months, judging by last year.
I've tried to estimate the figures based on various published USCIS and DOS reports.

It may be a big ask for USCIS to process twice as many EB AOS applications as normal in a FY, even if some categories are slightly lower.
That, of course, assumes that every adjudicator is capable of adjudicating all types of application.

USCIS isn't known as a nimble or responsive organization - rather it's more like a supertanker - slow to change direction.

Let's see. The old timers know I don't have a particularly high opinion of USCIS.

I hope this information may be useful to others.

[suninphx]

There's been some interesting posts recently, discussing the processing capabilities to handle the much larger numbers of EB visas available in FY2021 and FY2022.

I can't find many of them because they have been subsumed by the large number of off-topic posts.

Since the vast majority of EB approvals are AOS, handled by USCIS, I thought it might be useful to contribute some historical figures for AOS approvals.

AOS APPROVALS ONLY
- FY --------- FB ------ EB ----- IR ------ Ref/Asy - Diversity --- Other --- Total
FY1999 ----- 28,325 -- 41,975 - 106,334 ---- 42,852 ----- 2,894 -- 22,413 - 244,793
FY2000 ----- 59,849 -- 84,971 - 188,383 ---- 65,941 ----- 2,892 -- 40,369 - 442,405
FY2001 ----- 73,308 - 137,785 - 273,981 --- 108,506 ----- 1,955 -- 57,724 - 653,259
FY2002 ----- 63,528 - 134,918 - 307,506 --- 126,084 ----- 1,989 -- 45,280 - 679,305
FY2003 ----- 29,112 -- 52,552 - 178,523 ---- 44,927 ----- 2,597 -- 39,705 - 347,416
FY2004 ----- 64,427 - 128,238 - 269,964 ---- 71,230 ----- 2,031 -- 48,031 - 583,921
FY2005 ----- 70,459 - 219,999 - 266,851 --- 142,962 ----- 1,850 -- 36,181 - 738,302
FY2006 ----- 79,709 - 121,587 - 357,127 --- 216,454 ----- 1,853 -- 42,518 - 819,248
FY2007 ----- 52,059 - 133,099 - 277,188 --- 136,125 ----- 1,360 -- 21,216 - 621,047
FY2008 ----- 56,899 - 149,542 - 251,090 --- 166,392 ----- 1,440 -- 15,205 - 640,568
FY2009 ----- 39,787 - 127,135 - 309,073 --- 177,368 ----- 1,277 -- 13,136 - 667,776
FY2010 ----- 26,279 - 136,010 - 252,842 --- 136,291 ----- 1,571 -- 13,583 - 566,576
FY2011 ----- 28,346 - 124,384 - 243,174 --- 168,460 ----- 1,617 -- 14,111 - 580,092
FY2012 ----- 18,560 - 126,016 - 239,986 --- 150,614 ----- 1,356 -- 11,027 - 547,559
FY2013 ----- 26,415 - 140,009 - 232,105 --- 119,630 ----- 1,505 -- 11,138 - 530,802
FY2014 ----- 23,202 - 129,645 - 228,128 --- 134,242 ----- 1,331 -- 18,578 - 535,126
FY2015 ----- 16,783 - 121,978 - 230,194 --- 151,995 ----- 1,268 -- 20,097 - 542,315
FY2016 ----- 15,116 - 113,640 - 257,302 --- 157,425 ----- 1,048 -- 20,896 - 565,427
FY2017 ----- 13,478 - 113,330 - 252,231 --- 146,003 ------- 918 -- 23,126 - 549,086
FY2018 ----- 12,448 - 110,347 - 237,321 --- 185,909 ----- 1,117 -- 20,742 - 567,884
FY2019 ----- 18,999 - 110,689 - 311,474 --- 106,911 ----- 1,003 -- 23,437 - 572,513
FY2020 ----- 11,433 - 132,459 -----------------------------------------------------

Average
2009-2019 -- 21,765 - 123,017 - 253,985 --- 148,623 ----- 1,274 -- 17,261 - 565,923
Average % ---- 3.8% --- 21.7% --- 44.9% ----- 26.3% ------ 0.2% ---- 3.1% -- 100.0%

EB @ 221,000 ---------- 39.1% ( 180.0% Average )
EB @ 275,000 ---------- 48.6% ( 224.0% Average )

Unfortunately, most figures for FY2020 are not available, since this needs USCIS to publish them. I doubt that will happen for another 6 months, judging by last year.

It may be a big ask for USCIS to process twice as many EB AOS applications as normal in a FY, even if some categories are slightly lower.
That, of course, assumes that every adjudicator is capable of adjudicating all types of application.

USCIS isn't known as a nimble or responsive organization - rather it's more like a supertanker - slow to change direction.

Let's see. The old timers know I don't have a particularly high opinion of USCIS.

I hope this information may be useful to others.

Spec,

Thanks!

This will help to set realistic expectations!

[vedu]

Spec,

Thanks!

This will help to set realistic expectations!

I am just hoping that at least the entire batch of 2012, which I am a part of graduates this year. TSC is showing some movement today with a couple of approvals/rfes with July/August 2009 PDs.

[ak7419]

I am just hoping that at least the entire batch of 2012, which I am a part of graduates this year. TSC is showing some movement today with a couple of approvals/rfes with July/August 2009 PDs.

TSC is not showing enough movement - one or two cases is not enough.

[suninphx]

I am just hoping that at least the entire batch of 2012, which I am a part of graduates this year. TSC is showing some movement today with a couple of approvals/rfes with July/August 2009 PDs.

Surely hope so as random approvals have resulted in retrogression previously.

Just saw a EB2 Jan 2010 approval (guessing NSC) on trackitt.

[skpanda]

All FYI, I have received Finger Printing notices today.

a. EB2 PD Dec 2010
b. I1485/I765/I131 - Applied on 28th Oct 2020
c. Notices received around 3rd week of Dec 2020
d. Fingerprint Notice received on 23rd March 2021
e. Fingerprint appointment date 8th April 2021

Note: My fingerprint notice has both I485 and I765 receipt Numbers.

[1312011_eb2I]

Which service center??

[skpanda]

Which service center??

MSC
National Benefits center