EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

GCLongwait I agree w this. As long as economy is south this is going to be true.

I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.

[pch053]

But some people can become eligible for porting with time, e.g. they do not have 5 years of progressive experience at this point of time but might gain that over time and becomes a candidate for porting 2 - 3 years down the line. Just a thought!

[qesehmk]

Any EB3IC post EB2IC current date is not much of an impact today. Those with dates prior to EB2IC current date ie. 15 March 2007 in this case is what will impact EB2IC.

Most of them already qualify with 5 Yr rule given how much time has lapsed between 2007 and today. So those who could would already have done so. There will be some trickle in future too. But unless economy improves I just don't see how EB3 portings will stay flat to 2011 let alone increase.

p.s. - EB3 ROW on the other hand has totally changed tracks. Very few if any file EB3ROW. They are opting to go for EB2. Which is why EB2ROW was not the #1 contributor to SOFAD previous year or this year and I don't expect it to do so in 2012 as well.

But some people can become eligible for porting with time, e.g. they do not have 5 years of progressive experience at this point of time but might gain that over time and becomes a candidate for porting 2 - 3 years down the line. Just a thought!

[superdesi2100]

Any EB3IC post EB2IC current date is not much of an impact today. Those with dates prior to EB2IC current date ie. 15 March 2007 in this case is what will impact EB2IC.

Most of them already qualify with 5 Yr rule given how much time has lapsed between 2007 and today. So those who could would already have done so. There will be some trickle in future too. But unless economy improves I just don't see how EB3 portings will stay flat to 2011 let alone increase.

p.s. - EB3 ROW on the other hand has totally changed tracks. Very few if any file EB3ROW. They are opting to go for EB2. Which is why EB2ROW was not the #1 contributor to SOFAD previous year or this year and I don't expect it to do so in 2012 as well.

Do you see a possibility of EB2 ROW becoming retrogressed? Correct me if I am wrong but it this happens, any spillover will first have to go to EB2 ROW due to 7% per country limit.

[qesehmk]

That is going to be difficult given teh state of economy.

Do you see a possibility of EB2 ROW becoming retrogressed? Correct me if I am wrong but it this happens, any spillover will first have to go to EB2 ROW due to 7% per country limit.

[Spectator]

Teddy & Q,

I've read your comments with interest. In many ways I think I have a view somewhere in the middle.

As far as SOFAD for FY2012 goes, I would see it somewhere in the range 20-25k.

Although the 12k EB1/EB2-non IC approvals we have heard about will reduce the backlog, it is only reducing it to the extent that it built up this year due to slower processing. Even then, the entire FY2011 created backlog for EB1 doesn't look like it will be eliminated. I don't think that is a big deal, since I don't see the backlog being released in FY2012 either.

The PERM figures for EB2-non IC suggest they can support at least the level of I-485 approvals to be seen this year, although I would like to see the Q3 FY2011 PERM figures.

Porting is a terribly difficult subject. When Porting started in earnest, there were several years worth of people to port and we have seen a lot from 2004 onwards. As time goes by, the % left that cannot port for various reasons increases. The forward movement of the Cut Off Dates for EB2-IC is also a limit to those that count towards visas used.

I guess we will get some idea of this year's level when DOS release the Report of the Visa Office. Until then, I will stick to a figure at the lower end of about 4k to cover all unknowns.

In my own figures, I have allowed a fairly generous 32% for 2007 PERM certifications that never make it to I-485 approvals due to I-140 denial, drop outs etc and a 60:40 split for EB2:EB3. It will be a personal view whether people think this is too much or not enough.

On that basis, the following table shows the Cut Off Dates that would be reached for a minimum of 20k SOFAD and a maximum of 25k for various levels of Porting.

------------------- 20k SOFAD ------ 25k SOFAD

3k Porting ------- 1/8 Nov 07 ------ 15 Jan 08

4k Porting ----- 15/22 Oct 07 ----- 1/8 Jan 08

5k Porting ------- 1/8 Oct 07 --- 15/22 Dec 07

6k Porting ----- 15/22 Sep 07 ----- 1/8 Dec 07

If DOS want to create a buffer then 1-2 months extra might be possible.

Only the more optimistic scenarios reach 2008, so I would say sometime in Q4 2007 seems most likely, based on the information we have to date.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Agree with most things you said other than above. The assumption that people will port only when they see that their date is current in EB2 may not be right. Its been quite clear for atleast the last 3 years that EB3 is 5 years behind EB2 (minimum). I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.

Also assuming I am person A who has PD of April1 '07 EB3. If I see my date go current in Sep bulletin and decide that I should port to EB2, I willing to bet a sizable sum that Person A will not be able to port within FY 2012, forget before spillover starts. I dont know about desi consulting companies since I never worked for one but I have filed 2 labors and each time its taken me 10 mnths after I joined the company to get my labor filed, and this is after both the companies initiated the process pretty much within 2-3 months of me joining, so if I am someone who has to switch a job to port it should take well over a year.

Actually I intended to say about effective porting, i.e. a person who ports when his date is current. Now since the dates for EB2-I are so close virtually every porting case is effective. I agree with you that the gap between EB2 and EB3 has remained in the range of 4-5 years over the last 2 years so nothing significant has changed in that regard. Many people have been trying to port and after 2010 it became clearer that porting is the way out for all later EB3 PD's. The estimates for porting have been quite varied from 3-6K and EB3 backlog is in the 55K - 60K range. Following people will port a) People who have completed 5 years of experience post bachelors, in fact everyone who was able to file in the Jul 2007 fiasco in Eb3 has completed 5 years since then b) Many people are in the process of doing masters in the last 2 years c) Many people are trying to convince the current employers to file another EB2 application d) Many people are trying to change employers or have already made the change and are trying to port. I think the bottom-line is that this number may plateau only it will not come down anytime soon. So the range of 3-6K will stay for a couple of years.

[nishant2200]

Per Dashboard, 29,535 I-140s now pending nationally. Seems to have reduced. We are now below the 30k.

The trend chart is showing a sharp decline, almost at same slope level as the increase in beginning of the year.

[nishant2200]

Processing times update on August 17th.

Texas service center is stuck in Oct-Sep 2010 for 140, while Nebraska is saying 4 months for all 140s.

Per dashboard, 2/3 rd almost of all pending 140 is with Texas, while 1/3rd almost is with Nebraska.

[qesehmk]

Per dashboard, 2/3 rd almost of all pending 140 is with Texas, while 1/3rd almost is with Nebraska.

Is it indicative of their inefficiency or could it be simply because Texas has been asked to handle 2/3rd volume?

[nishant2200]

Yes, it will be interesting to see the activity of July-Aug-Sep, later on in the year. That would indicate if really they utilized the period for backlog reduction, and the supposed 12k hidden demand materialization was not a cry wolf situation.

Texas I see has, in May-June, 2 months, has had net reduction of 6k 140s from pending status.

They have almost 21k with them. Combined with the fact that PERM is down due to the H2 mess, and no new much influx of EB2 I/C PWMB 140/485s, if they continue this kind of trend, they could very well play catch up with Nebraska around Q2 FY 2012. USCIS may also choose to offload more new 140 incoming to Nebraska to help Texas. Nebraska already showing a net increase instead of a net decrease. Inspite of that, it just might be enough for Nebraska to have a claim of 4 months for processing time for 140.

This means, as Teddy said above, during the crucial Quarters of FY 2012 wherein agencies extrapolate SO, there would be bad indications, which may not necessarily be entirely truth indicative, may also be false positives. But this may lead to starting SO season late, then as compared to the early of May this year.

Is it indicative of their inefficiency or could it be simply because Texas has been asked to handle 2/3rd volume?

[nishant2200]

Q, I believe the porting + PWMB is higher, it may not be the only reason, but it sure must be more than the total 3k assumed.

Long back I asked if it's possible for DOS to issue a correction to a visa bulletin, when they realized they made a miscalculation. They did so in July 2007 fiasco, but people balked and had to take it back

Trackitt trend updated in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

In summary the trend is a bit confusing when compared to the September-non-movement. We should be seeing much more EB1 EB2ROW approvals. But they are not there. The good news is - there shouldn't be any retrogression whatsoever. The other news (not necessarily bad one) is if EB1 EB2ROW don't show uptick in approvals then either EB3 should see some spillover (which I really doubt) or it means PWMB+Portings were higher than we thought they were. Or of course the third possibility of wasting visas (which again I doubt). Sometimes I wonder, by not moving dates has DoS/USCIS boxed itself in a bit of a tricky situation?

[qesehmk]

It truly was an extraordinary event. Of course we wish it happened this time too. But its hoping against hope.

Long back I asked if it's possible for DOS to issue a correction to a visa bulletin, when they realized they made a miscalculation. They did so in July 2007 fiasco, but people balked and had to take it back

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

Certified/Expired

Q1 - 18,288
Q2 - 16,873
Q3 - 12,744

Total - 47,905

Doesn't quite stack up with the 63% increase in applications, unless the backlog is increasing.

[veni001]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

Certified/Expired

Q1 - 18,288
Q2 - 16,873
Q3 - 12,744

Total - 47,905

Doesn't quite stack up with the 63% increase in applications, unless the backlog is increasing.

Spec,
Good, Finally Q3 PERM data is out!

June PERM Fact Sheet was referring increase in receipts and also 22,200 active PERM cases pending as of 05/31/2011.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Good, Finally Q3 PERM data is out!

June PERM Fact Sheet was referring increase in receipts and also 22,200 active PERM cases pending as of 05/31/2011.

Veni,

I know, but if there are that many extra receipts, we might expect to see higher approvals as well, since the processing time isn't that slow. We don't, so it is a small mystery. The FY2010 approvals for the same period were 55.1k.

The appropriate FACTS & DATA posts have been updated.

[veni001]

Veni,

I know, but if there are that many extra receipts, we might expect to see higher approvals as well, since the processing time isn't that slow. We don't, so it is a small mystery. The FY2010 approvals for the same period were 55.1k.

The appropriate FACTS & DATA posts have been updated.

Spec,
Looking at Q1,Q2 & Q3 PERM data it is obvious that PERM processing got slowed down from Q1 to Q2 to Q3.

FY2011-Q1:
Certified = 18,288
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,431
Total processed = 22,719

FY2011-Q2:
Certified = 16,873
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,639
Total processed = 20,512


FY2011-Q3:
Certified = 12,744
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,484
Total processed = 16,228

Applications Processed:
Q2 compared to Q1 = 10% less
Q3 compared to Q2 = 21% less
Q3 compared to Q1 = 28.5% less

Denied/Withdrawn (% of completions):
Q1 = 19.5%
Q2 = 17.7%
Q3 = 21.4%
Q1-Q3 = 19.4%

Monthly Completions FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Highest processed in a month = December 2010 = 10,199
Lowest processed in a month = April 2011 = 3,685


From June PERM Factsheet there are 22,200 active PERM applications pending as of 05/31/2011

June 2011 completions = 6,490, if we assume same amount of receipts for June'11 means 22K PERM pending as of 06/30/2011.

Also based on the processing stastitics from the Fact Sheet ~75% of these pending cases are from FY 2011 only!

[ssvp22]

....Also based on the processing stastitics from the Fact Sheet ~75% of these pending cases are from FY 2011 only!

Veni, can you please explain the impact of these numbers.

[veni001]

Veni, can you please explain the impact of these numbers.

ssvp22,

Any backlog build-up (140 or PERM) is not good for SOFAD in the long run!

Historically ROW-M-P is averaging about 50-60% of PERM Certifications.

Spec and Q pointed that most of the ROW are applying in EB2 post July 2007.

So, if and when this backlog is cleared will use-up significant VISA numbers, which means less spillover from ROW!

[Spectator]

Veni,

Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.

Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.

It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.

[veni001]

Veni,

Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.

Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.

It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.

Spec,
You are correct, I see somewhat decrease in ROW-M-P numbers (could be the result of backlog) for FY2011(Q1-Q3), when compared to past few years trend.

On porting numbers (EB3-->EB2I) i would stick to your assumptions, rather than diving into deep.


P.S: I have noticed similar decrease in CHINA numbers also.

[qesehmk]

Spec and Veni

I dont' understand why you are concerned about future SPILLOVER from ROWMP?
Looking at the numbers in FACTS and data, I see 2011 PERM approvals for ROWMP tracking to full year 30% down. So everything else remaining same (denial withdrawal rates at various stages) shouldn't ROWMP next year use 30% less quota for ROWMP EB2?

Veni,

Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.

Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.

It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.

[veni001]

Spec and Veni

I dont' understand why you are concerned about future SPILLOVER from ROWMP?
Looking at the numbers in FACTS and data, I see 2011 PERM approvals for ROWMP tracking to full year 30% down. So everything else remaining same (denial withdrawal rates at various stages) shouldn't ROWMP next year use 30% less quota for ROWMP EB2?

Q,
That is true on the PERM certifications, and it is clear that the decrease is due to the back-log buildup.

Here are the headwinds for spillover from ROW-M-P for FY2012

1. Significant 140 back-log, not sure how much will be cleared by FY2011.
2. Significant(~22K) PERM backlog (even certified in Q4 may not get VISA from FY2011 numbers)

If we assume the current rate of ROW-M-P demand(PERM) continue & also all current PERM backlog(22K- all countries) will be cleared by Q1/Q2 - 2012 then, it will bring an additional 13.5K EB2ROW-M-P 485 into the pipeline.

If I start ROW-M-P 485 backlog for FY2012 similar to this year, add next year demand(three quarters) + PERM backlog reduction then, the picture is not pretty for SOFAD.

[ssvp22]

sandeep

both are one and the same things. VO and USCIS need to work together and its a good thing. Increases predictability of the system.

on another note - I am concerned (please see the trackitt predictions thread) about EB1 and EB2ROW not picking up. If they can't use them for EB1 and EB2ROW then the it would be good if VO issues an amendment to the bulletin.

Can you please give link to trackitt predictions thread

[Spectator]

on another note - I am concerned (please see the trackitt predictions thread) about EB1 and EB2ROW not picking up. If they can't use them for EB1 and EB2ROW then the it would be good if VO issues an amendment to the bulletin.

Q,

I don't see why you are concerned. Based on the daily approvals http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 :

EB1 appears to be heading for around 27k approvals.

EB2-ROW appears to be heading for around 25.5k approvals and EB2-MP for around 3-3.5k approvals.

That gives (40-27) + (34.4-29) = 18.4k spillover.

Add on EB2-IC allocation of 5.6k gives 24k and a further 6-8k from EB5 gives total SOFAD of 30-32k.

Given the amount needed is 26k + Porting etc (4-6k) that appears to be bang on.