EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[leo07]

I'm afraid, I can't say it's misleading I'm first hand victim. I applied in October 2010, and my attorney had to withdraw the petition for some errors in the application, that the attorney realized after 8 months. I wouldn't blame the attorney much as the application was an amendment as part of my company's acquisition, it was complicated enough to mess up. My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. ). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140

Long story short...I'm still waiting for my 140 approval...

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..

[Sandeep2011]

evoori,

I agree that the dates aren't necessarily totally representative, but then neither is a sample size of 2 cases!

For cases submitted to TSC as regular processing and approved in this FY to date, Trackitt gives a median of:

EB2-ALL - 178 days
EB2-India - 191 days

For NSC, the figures are:

EB2-ALL - 119 days
EB2-India - 120 days

All Service Centers

EB2-ALL - 156 days
EB2-India - 172 days


All Service Centers for approvals in FY2011

EB1A - 263 days - TSC - 272 - NSC - 207
EB1B - 184 days - TSC - 215 - NSC - 107
EB1C - 188 days - TSC - 189 - NSC - 184

Not perfect, but perhaps slightly more representative.

Spec, aren't these dates as of June 30, 2011? So, possibly in last month and half TSC may have become better/faster in processing 485s given that we are approaching end of year for USCIS.

[Reader]

My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. ). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140

Leo, I will have to go through the same situation due to my company merger coming up during mid 2012. Is it a standard rule that one cannot file in premium processing for I 140 successor in interest amendment?

[soggadu]

I'm afraid, I can't say it's misleading I'm first hand victim. I applied in October 2010, and my attorney had to withdraw the petition for some errors in the application, that the attorney realized after 8 months. I wouldn't blame the attorney much as the application was an amendment as part of my company's acquisition, it was complicated enough to mess up. My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. ). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140

Long story short...I'm still waiting for my 140 approval...

yeh toh Deadlock ho gaye re baba....

[tikkahyd]

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

[Spectator]

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

Congratulations!

[veni001]

USCIS dashboard updated with June'11 data.

Shows significant effort to reduce 140 backlog!

[qesehmk]

tikka, congratulations. Always good to hear good news!

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

USCIS dashboard updated with June'11 data.

Shows significant effort to reduce 140 backlog!

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

[haripathhi]

Agreed Q. However, the stats for the next couple of months could be misleading because of the temporarily suspension of processing of Wage determinations by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings. I guess this figure will be caught up once they start resuming this.

[bieber]

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

Q

for fy2011 (till Q3) total 140 receipts 62822
we already know that EB1 140 receipts for fy2011 till July 19th is 13794

so Eb2 receipts for fy2011 are atleast 49028 and pending number from dashboard says 29535. So, may be the pending is mostly from Eb2.

The recently found demand for Eb1 and Eb2 ROW may have directly come from this 140 approval surge/reduction in pending (instead of working on 140s on FIFO basis, they must have sorted out EB1 and EB2 ROW )

[veni001]

Q

for fy2011 (till Q3) total 140 receipts 62822
we already know that EB1 140 receipts for fy2011 till July 19th is 13794

so Eb2 receipts for fy2011 are atleast 49028 and pending number from dashboard says 29535. So, may be the pending is mostly from Eb2.

The recently found demand for Eb1 and Eb2 ROW may have directly come from this 140 approval surge/reduction in pending (instead of working on 140s on FIFO basis, they must have sorted out EB1 and EB2 ROW )

bieber,
~49k should be both EB2&EB3.

[bieber]

bieber,
~49k should be both EB2&EB3.

Yes, my bad

Thanks for correcting me Veni

[veni001]

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

Q,
Agree, and most of 140 backlog buildup started from FY2010.

Also,
FY 2011 (Q1+Q2) 140 completions ~= 35k
FY 2011 (Q3) 140 completions ~= 27k

At current pace and little more delay in PERM filings (PWD delay), USCIS may be able to caught-up with all 140 backlogs by Q1-2012!

[Spectator]

The I-526 figures are also interesting.

Receipts YOY are 200% of last year and heading for 175-180% more for a full year.

Completions haven't kept up with that pace, so Pending applications have doubled during the year (although still only a modest 2.6k including those waiting for Customer Action).

Completion numbers are showing the beginnings of an upward trend to keep pace with current Receipt levels.

At the 78.2% approval rate for I-526 and the known 2.9 I-485 per I-526, the backlog represents 5.9k EB5 visas.

The current rate of Receipts (avge. 335/month over last 4 months) would give lead to 3.1k I-526 approvals per year and 9.1k EB5 visas if nothing changed. Probably that worst case might not be reached.

Also bear in mind that the last known use of EB5 in FY2010 of 1.9k stems from a period when receipts were 1/3 of the current level.

We already know that an estimated 2.1k were used in the first half of FY2011.

It is a little early to be sure, but I think we can probably expect much higher numbers of EB5 visas to be used in the future, especially as USCIS have put measures in place to speed up processing.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q,
Agree, and most of 140 backlog buildup started from FY2010.

Also,
FY 2011 (Q1+Q2) 140 completions ~= 35k
FY 2011 (Q3) 140 completions ~= 27k

At current pace and little more delay in PERM filings (PWD delay), USCIS may be able to caught-up with all 140 backlogs by Q1-2012!

Veni & Q thanks for your analysis. The backlog in Q3 decreased from 34K in April to 29K in June. The number of completions in Jun 9.4K is virtually double of Feb completions of 4.8K. Since the Aug & Sep bulletins did not show much movement its indicative of the fact that several concurrently filed EB2 ROW and EB1 cases became eligible for approvals it correlates very well with the I140 approval trend. You are correct if the current pace of approvals continues then by the end of Q1 2012 i.e. Dec the I140 backlog might reduce significantly. The key factor will really be the rate of incoming i140 and 485 applications, this surge has the potential to fully consume the entire EB2 ROW and EB1 cap for Q1 at the minimum or even significant part of the Q2 cap at maximum. With this trend continuing we might see the lower projection of SOFAD in 2012. There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India, China might move though.

Following is a rough demand picture

1) Preadjudicated cases - 8K.
2) PWMB - 4K
3) Expected porting that will come constantly over the year 6K, we should stick with 6k because with Eb2-I being at 15th Apr 2007 potentially more people from EB3 can port and expect to get approved right away.
If we add these 3 the demand till 01-SEP-2007 is ~ 18K. Now the trend for I140 is not in favor of SOFAD because they are being approved at an alarming rate. The SOFAD in the upcoming year is expected to be in the range 20K - 30K (This year’s SOFAD). The current rate of approval of I140 will push the SOFAD very close to the lower end, the Aug and September bulletin freeze is a part of his trend. This way this year may end 01-OCT-2007. Only in the best case scenario with the current information is there is a chance of crossing 2007 this year for GC approvals, intake is totally hypothetical and maybe till a point much further if and when it happens, however there seems to be no possibility at all of any intake before Q3. Also the approval rate in Q1 2012 on Trackitt for EB2 ROW and EB1 will be a critical indicator.

[leo07]

I spoke that too early...we are getting acquired againnnnnnnnnnnnn

[imechanix]

There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

[veni001]

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

imechanix,
Not only porting but also EB2ROW demand depends on several factors.....

1. How long this temporary PWD suspension going to last (1 month, 2 months...1 quarter?)
2. Once PWD is restored, there will be a surge in PERM filings
3. How fast DOL can handle this surge, followed by 140 processing by USCIS
4. Volume of porting/EB2ROW in the current 140 backlog
5. How much porting/EB2ROW from the current 140 backlog will be cleared this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

This delay is happening at a off peak time relative to the Sofad season. So even if it lasts for a few more days to a month more it will not impact volumes as they have 10 months to recoup. However in the interest of those whose H1 extensions are approaching I hope they resolve at the soonest possible.

[Sandeep2011]

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

Congratulations to you and your family tikkahyd. How long did it take for you to receive your cards after your filed your 485.

[Gclongwait]

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

Not sure where you got this info. Per the HR of my company H1 are not affected by this.

[tikkahyd]

Congratulations to you and your family tikkahyd. How long did it take for you to receive your cards after your filed your 485.

Thanks Sandeep !!
Applied my 485 during the july fiasco .. so approximately 4 years ..

[gchopeful123]

Reg effect on H1,in my opinion this would affect only those people who are on their 6th year of H1 and want to apply for Labor so that they can use it for H1 extension using AC21. This should not affect H1 extensions for people who already have Labor or who are in their 3rd year of H1 and want to extend to 6 years. Just my market depreciated 2 cents...

Not sure where you got this info. Per the HR of my company H1 are not affected by this.

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

[imechanix]

Not sure where you got this info. Per the HR of my company H1 are not affected by this.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.html

[imechanix]

From Murthy.com Website.

Conclusions and Considerations for FY12
There were no predictions in the Visa Bulletin for the start of FY12 on October 1, 2011. The EB2 India and China advancement at the end of FY11, and the resulting I-485 case approvals, should make a noticeable impact in the pending I-485 inventory for EB2 India and China. This, hopefully, will avoid any need to retrogress the cutoff dates in these categories, and, potentially, allow for at least some forward movement.

The interesting prospect for the upcoming fiscal year is the complete absence of any pending India and China EB2 I-485s with priority dates after mid August 2007. Since cutoff dates are based on predictions of supply and demand, if enough of the older, long-pending I-485 cases are approved, the cutoff date may have to be advanced to fill the "pipeline" with more cases. Thus, at some point, there is likely to be a noticeable, temporary advancement in the EB2 category for India and China in order to allow for additional case filings.