EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Spec,

That's great. I am comfortable with this kind of approach. We are in sync.

Kanmani,

What has already been given is not relevant to my calculation. Only what is finally given is important. ...


....
As a PS to Q, our slight difference in what the 19k represented has no effect on the calculation either. It has everything to do with how much SOFAD is required to cover the COD movement and where that comes from.

Hi Q - when you get time, can you please update your post #1 with the expected or predicted movement and SOFAD for FY2012. Thank you.

ie, thanks. I will update. Thanks for reminding!

[Spectator]

Spec I am referring to this post of yours , and I marked the line where it doesn't make sense to me .

you are reducing 12K from the left over 29K . Why?

At the end of July EB1 appeared to have used 21.5k, leaving 18.5k left for further approvals and spillover.
EB1 allocation is 40k. If they have used 21.5k by the end of July, then 18.5k remains of that allocation.

At the end of July, EB2-ROW appeared to have used 21k and MP around 3k, leaving about 10.5k left for further approvals and spillover.
EB2-ROW-MP allocation is 34.4k. If they have used 24k by the end of July, then 10.4k remains of that allocation.

That is 29k left for EB1 and EB2-ROW after July.
18.5 + 10.4 = c. 29k That has to cover both further EB1/EB2-ROW approvals and the contribution to SOFAD. The more approvals in August/September, the less available to SOFAD.

Reduce that by the extra 12k leaves 17k, when 19.4k is required for 31k SOFAD.
If another 12k EB1/EB2-ROW cases remain to be approved in August/September then the total spare visas for the year (including the 12k spare announced in May VB) available towards SOFAD from EB1/EB2-ROW becomes 29 - 12 = 17k

That would give SOFAD of 17 + 6 (from EB5) + 5.6 (normal allocation) = 28.6k.

It is a coincidence that the 12k EB1/EB2-ROW extra demand is the same number as the 12k spare EB1 visas announced in the May VB.

[gurpreet]

Hi Q,
I was just going through trackitt data and found out that you have updated your case status. It says you got approved on August 10th, 2011. CONGRATULATIONS and thanks for everything.

[Kanmani]

Thank you Spec for your patience. Agreed now. I took the 12k as the extras annuounced in May.

Taking a diff route I am also arriving to the same number of 2.4K short , if we consider 12K EB1+ EB2 extra demand still waiting .


Balance left 17K (remove 12K demand ) = 5.0K

Balance required to reach 31K = 7.4K

Shortage is 2.4k

[Spectator]

Hi Q - when you get time, can you please update your post #1 with the expected or predicted movement and SOFAD for FY2012. Thank you.

ie, thanks. I will update. Thanks for reminding!

Q,

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but I think it would best to start a new thread for FY2012 and leave this one for FY2011.

The history of the final prediction is preserved and we start with a manageable sized new thread.

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec for your patience. Agreed now. I took the 12k as the extras annuounced in May.

Taking a diff route I am also arriving to the same number of 2.4K short , if we consider 12K EB1+ EB2 extra demand still waiting .


Balance left 17K (remove 12K demand ) = 5.0K

Balance required to reach 31K = 7.4K

Shortage is 2.4k

Kanmani,

Thanks for your patience with me.

The 12k figure for two different items did make it potentially confusing.

Remember though that the calculations probably have an error margin of at least 2.5k either way, so it is only a possibility.

We will only know the truth when the official DOS figures are published in January 2012, although I hope we will get some leaks before then, as we did last year.

[qesehmk]

Spec

No worries. That's exactly what we should be doing. Lets brainstorm among us, structure teh new thread and then open it up for everybody. Until then as far as 2011 is concerned we will use and preserve this thread.

Q,

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but I think it would best to start a new thread for FY2012 and leave this one for FY2011.

The history of the final prediction is preserved and we start with a manageable sized new thread.

[druvraj]

Hi All,

I had a visitor from USICS auditing me and my company on my immigration status. I am not too sure he was inquiring about my GC or just H1B. Has anyone been audited like this before and if yes what happened next. I am currently on H1B with approved i140 and currently because of my I140 got an H1b extension of 3 years after my 6 H1b years. My PD is Feb2008.

[haripathhi]

Druvraj,

USCIS has been auditing companies regarding H1-B processes on a random basis since the past 2-3 years. This is now considered a normal part of their process wherein they make sure that all the processes and procedures w.r.t the client/parent company is in place.

Hi All,

I had a visitor from USICS auditing me and my company on my immigration status. I am not too sure he was inquiring about my GC or just H1B. Has anyone been audited like this before and if yes what happened next. I am currently on H1B with approved i140 and currently because of my I140 got an H1b extension of 3 years after my 6 H1b years. My PD is Feb2008.

[druvraj]

Druvraj,

USCIS has been auditing companies regarding H1-B processes on a random basis since the past 2-3 years. This is now considered a normal part of their process wherein they make sure that all the processes and procedures w.r.t the client/parent company is in place.

Hi haripathhi,

Thanks for the clarification, it helps.

[nishant2200]

Mine is a non-consulting company, and even at our workplace, I have heard that couple of times USCIS officers have come to audit. I don't know what details they verified or what they did, but have not seen any problems with any employee in their immigration or H1 matters.

Hi All,

I had a visitor from USICS auditing me and my company on my immigration status. I am not too sure he was inquiring about my GC or just H1B. Has anyone been audited like this before and if yes what happened next. I am currently on H1B with approved i140 and currently because of my I140 got an H1b extension of 3 years after my 6 H1b years. My PD is Feb2008.

[Nishant_imt]

I had a visit too in late may. It was for H1B, not for GC. They asked me all sorts of questions and then very recently, they asked my company to reply back with similar questions. I don't know what the outcome of this process would be, but the DHS official was very congenial and told me that this was to ensure if there was any visa fraud involved. I asked her about what kind of things they were looking for, and she told me that people don't work at the place they have mentioned on the H1B application, instead are found working at gas stations and all. But the list of questions they sent to my employer were more relating to employer employee relationship. I will post once i know the outcome, but for now, my company lawyer has drafted a reply which will be sent soon to USCIS and DHS.

[qesehmk]

Friends
For 2011 discussion lets continue to use this thread. In a few days we will start the 2012 thread.
This i.e. 2011 thread will be closed on 1st October. After that 2012 thread will become our default thread.

[10102007]

she told me that people don't work at the place they have mentioned on the H1B application.

I work for a consulting company and I changed projects recently after I got my H1 extension approval while I was working at another client. I was told that it is enough to just file a new LCA. Is this correct? I'm asking because of the quoted sentence above. Is work location specified in the H1 application?

[gcq]

I work for a consulting company and I changed projects recently after I got my H1 extension approval while I was working at another client. I was told that it is enough to just file a new LCA. Is this correct? I'm asking because of the quoted sentence above. Is work location specified in the H1 application?

Please refer to these news letters from Ron

H1b Amendments- when are they really required?

H1b Amendments- when are they really required? - Part II

Typically you just need to file LCA

When a beneficiary is transferred from a firm to another firm within the same organization, and the new firm becomes the beneficiary’s employer. The mere transfer of the beneficiary to another work site, in the same occupation, does not require the filing of an amended petition provided the initial petitioner remains the alien’s employer and, provided further, the supporting labor condition application remains valid.

[sandeep11]

If you don't mind, can you list out the questions you were asked. May be that will help others prepare for a similar situation.

Thanks.

I had a visit too in late may. It was for H1B, not for GC. They asked me all sorts of questions and then very recently, they asked my company to reply back with similar questions. I don't know what the outcome of this process would be, but the DHS official was very congenial and told me that this was to ensure if there was any visa fraud involved. I asked her about what kind of things they were looking for, and she told me that people don't work at the place they have mentioned on the H1B application, instead are found working at gas stations and all. But the list of questions they sent to my employer were more relating to employer employee relationship. I will post once i know the outcome, but for now, my company lawyer has drafted a reply which will be sent soon to USCIS and DHS.

[nishant2200]

Friends, I have copied a couple of posts giving information on what to do when job location changes with regards to H1 visa to:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...Related-Topics

I have not moved because they are in the flow of a larger discussion going on about H1 audit from USCIS, and hopefully the discussion will get richer further.

[qesehmk]

Made - what I would consider - final update to the header. We will continue to use this thread for discussion about 2011 until we are ready to move over to 2012 thread.

[nishant2200]

Q, what an excellent update and summary. This has been a roller coaster emotional ride. Thanks all of you.

[memk26]

Now PWMB should be -People with PD prior to Jul-2007 who missed the boat again in 2011

[gcq]

Q,
quoted below from the header. Can we expect the spillover to start earlier than May in 2012 ? Starting spillover earlier is always a risk for DOS as they may run out of visas if surprise EB1 and EB2 row cases become qualified in the last quarter. Considering DOS's experience with EB1 this year, I feel DOS may start spillover only in July next year.

In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012.

[essenel]

Q, thanks for the 2011 update and summary - very useful information. I was just wondering though about the last para:

"In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012."

Is this the general opinion now among the gurus, that we will most likely see a movement by Mar 2012, or are there still differing opinions about this? I've been following this thread religiously, so I know there was a lot of discussion about this, but I wasn't able to get a feel for what the consensus was....

[qesehmk]

gcq we will see as we go ahead. Not moving the dates early enough has the potential to waste visas.

Q,
quoted below from the header. Can we expect the spillover to start earlier than May in 2012 ? Starting spillover earlier is always a risk for DOS as they may run out of visas if surprise EB1 and EB2 row cases become qualified in the last quarter. Considering DOS's experience with EB1 this year, I feel DOS may start spillover only in July next year.

Is this the general opinion now among the gurus, that we will most likely see a movement by Mar 2012, or are there still differing opinions about this? I've been following this thread religiously, so I know there was a lot of discussion about this, but I wasn't able to get a feel for what the consensus was....

I should make it clear this is not necessarily concensus. This is my "opinion".

[sidd21]

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).

[srinivasj]

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).

I submitted mine on july 1st..got receipt around 20th of july and fingerprint notice on Aug 1st for appointment date of Aug 29th..hope that helps..

as all gurus have been predicting that there will be no retrogression and with that no RFE's on your application..you should get GC in 4 months..I believe that is the current processing time..