EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

Though its an American Co, its just 20 employees here and the Co uses my Desi Attorney with whom I been associated for more than 4 years.

awesome...just wanted to remind u bro... happy hopping then...

[gcq]

Not to dampen the spirits, but can't stop remembering the NVC fee notification theory that the forum discussed so much in the past few months.

Any explanation why the dates didn't progress to 2008 based on NVC fee notifications ? Discussing NVC fee theory now may give a better understanding about NVC fees for future discussions.

[qblogfan]

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.

I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

hey QBF bhai... how are ya... r u ok now? ... dude... i was wondering why can't china PD move faster than india in coming months... your PWMB's and backlog numbers are way less than India right... cant see why it can't be done... also going into 2008/09/10, chinese numbers are really really low...

[bieber]

Post July 2007 EB2 and EB3 people who have not filed for 485 are NOT documentarily qualified demand

I'm not saying they are, Eb3 will and should get visas provided eb2c date is C. Eb2 is getting spillover only because EB1 is C, same thing will happen if EB3 gets SO from EB2

There is no reason to believe CIS/DOS will favor one category over other

[soggadu]

Not to dampen the spirits, but can't stop remembering the NVC fee notification theory that the forum discussed so much in the past few months.

Any explanation why the dates didn't progress to 2008 based on NVC fee notifications ? Discussing NVC fee theory now may give a better understanding about NVC fees for future discussions.

gcq...think about it... they sent these notices in march and april thinking lot of spillover left and they can do miracles...then during the last couple of bulletins they realized the new demand and their calculation mistake... so they kept quiet... no movement... so dont worry abt NVC's... they are anyway valid for ever once they pay the fee's...

[kolugc]

awesome...just wanted to remind u bro... happy hopping then...

Thanks Soggudu for your advice... You are very right... If they revoke I am screwed bit time... I did hear its very difficult to get the PD from a revoked I-140... And now that you reminded this, I am definitely going to check this again with my attorney and my employer and if possible get this in writing before I quit and make my move..

But does that mean its "Yes" for all my questions below..

1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B?

[soggadu]

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.

I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

Can u ask them to visit you? i know it's hard waiting on sidelines but is there anything that can make u feel better than remorse and curse for something which is not in our hands? just wondering...

[ssvp22]

In my opinion, people with PD in 2008 should not wait for GC. Switch jobs, get more money and better position. At age 33, i have realized that GC is the least important thing in life to focus on. If you focus on your career, GC will come by itself if you need it. Going by this thinking, i have put in last 2 years into my startup and making $4k/month in revenue(number looks small but takes tons of effort). Hope to go fulltime by this year end. And that would be that of this H1-B contracting crap. I cant take this nonsense stifling of my career @random_jerk_manager anymore.

[makmohan]

Q - congrats on your GC. Enjoy..

my PD is april 2008 and i have thought about changing my job for last few years but i am still at the same place! the risk of going through all documentation nightmare again, holds me back. i am in this country for 9 years and am taking the risk with starting my part-time mba this fall, similar to the risk of buying a house i took few years back. i don't know how to navigate this uncertainty but at least i have to keep faith in my luck/education/skills and keep investing in myself.

i am actually lost with all the recent posts and with so much activity it is really hard to keep up with the pace. well, actually a good thing for Q's blog.

can someone pls summarize the knowledge on PWMB and porting demand and how about it limits the movement next year till maximum jan-mar 2008?

[dec2007]

I agree with you.

We are Aliens. In the American people's eyes, we are not much different from the Mexicans cutting grass for them.

I have prepared myself for the worst cases senario. I kept studying as much as I can in the past several years. I obtained several certifications and also save money as much as I could.

If in one day our GC fails, what will we do? At least we need to have some money and have some skills. I think it's a good idea to study in office time and learn more stuff. It's a waste of time to work on routine tasks that will not benefit our future career. For me, I do Minimum for this company, but I learn a lot by checking websites and taking some evening classes. It will be stupid if we work hard on stupid routine work everyday when they treat us like crap.

We have to be street smart!

I totally agree with you qblogfan. my pd is dec 31, 2007. and realized in 2008/2009 that my dates will not be current for few more years and cannot stop my career. could not change the job then due to market conditions. did mba using company's education program, volunteered for more roles, gave presentations to mgmt based on my little knowledge i got through mba. finally i got promoted to sales manager. ( i was design engineer). even if my dates get current and i get EAD, I cannot use AC21 because my gc was applied for design engineer. so for me to change jobs to sales, i have to have GC...

everyone has our own situations....

[Spectator]

if Eb2 has no documentarily qualified demand then visas will go to EB3, fair enough, how one can prove that there is no demand if the dates are not current, if DOS doesn't move EB2 date and visas are given to EB3 then let's all of us be ready (eb2 and eb3) for class action law suit, we all will be making so much money we can file in EB5.

What would be the basis of a Class Action Lawsuit in such a scenario?

The remaining numbers (not even considering porting) are sufficient to use the 81% visas available to the end of June 2012.

DOS would argue (correctly) that they could not invite new Demand until July 2012, because there would be insufficient visas available to allocate to known Demand.

At that point, it wouldn't matter whether the COD was moved a little or made Current. Apart from a few CP cases, it wouldn't result in extra qualified applicants who could receive visas. Hardly anybody could claim they lost out on a visa allocation because the dates were not made Current. That could not be rectified by litigation after the event, a point the Chinese conceded in their own case.

DOS, on the other hand could fairly easily prove that any forward movement made covered sufficient Demand for visas available from spillover, had the cases been processed by USCIS with sufficient speed.

Anyway, it is probably entirely hypothetical.

CO has pretty much said that it will not be made Current.

[murali83]

In my opinion, people with PD in 2008 should not wait for GC. Switch jobs, get more money and better position. At age 33, i have realized that GC is the least important thing in life to focus on. If you focus on your career, GC will come by itself if you need it. Going by this thinking, i have put in last 2 years into my startup and making $4k/month in revenue(number looks small but takes tons of effort). Hope to go fulltime by this year end. And that would be that of this H1-B contracting crap. I cant take this nonsense stifling of my career @random_jerk_manager anymore.

ssvp bhai, you are 100% right, confusion comes when you are 27, unmarried, partying everyday and having an average employer (not great, but not bad at all) and a PD of may 2008. That is when u think heck, let me wait 2 more yrs.

[bieber]

What would be the basis of a Class Action Lawsuit in such a scenario?

If 'no documentarily qualified demand' clause is used to give visas to eb3, then the same clause will not let them set a date other than C for eb2. (because in that case one can argue there is no demand because you have a date which is not current and that is preventing the demand) When DOS is saying there is no demand for a category why would they have to set a date in that case?

having said that I don't think they will make it C, they can play very nicely within the timeframe to give all the visas to Eb2 (I'm not against them giving visas to eb3)

[srimurthy]

I think any class action law suit will bite the dust because of the keyword documentarily qualified demand which means demand which CIS knows about and can be documented and that is all the 485 apps CIS knows it has and 90 % of that is EB3 apps. Post July 2007 EB2 and EB3 people who have not filed for 485 are NOT documentarily qualified demand

Great, they know so many people have filed and have approved 140's in all categories. That documentary demand would not be visible until the category becomes current and that can happen if by miracle we get around 200K odd visa numebers allocated to EB2 and 3 IandC.

[soggadu]

kolu...my take on ur questions...

1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

Yes provided it is not revoked, as GC process is all about future employment, u can even stay on the process with co A while you are at co B

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

same answer i guess, provided 140 not revoked and your co A is willing to take u back... u neednt even come back and still have the process going with co A if it is a possibility

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B? see above

others please correct me if i am wrong

[PDJan2008]

Long time reader. You guys are doing a real great job providing clarity. I have started understanding the nuances a lot better now thanks to all of you on this forum.

Question for Spectator -
In this scenario, how far do you think the dates need to move? Are folks who sent the documents corresponding to NVC receipts considered documentarily qualified? So, can we assume the date need to move in EB2 to cover those before giving them to EB3.

My lawyer picked CP for me because he told me at the time this provides us most flexibility. I was also asked to ignore the email from NVC about the bill and file for AOS when the dates become current.

[srimurthy]

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.

I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

Same here and don't see that happening in the next 3 years or so and still giving falls hopes to parents back home.
The govt doesn't realize that the travel itself chruns the industry, by airline tickets and the shopping that indians do when they go visit their home country.

[Spectator]

If 'no documentarily qualified demand' clause is used to give visas to eb3, then the same clause will not let them set a date other than C for eb2. (because in that case one can argue there is no demand because you have a date which is not current and that is preventing the demand) When DOS is saying there is no demand for a category why would they have to set a date in that case?

having said that I don't think they will make it C, they can play very nicely within the timeframe to give all the visas to Eb2 (I'm not against them giving visas to eb3)

Running out of documentarily qualified cases is not exactly the same as not knowing potential demand.

A fixed Cut off Date in the future can be set by estimating future applications on the basis of known I-140 approvals with PDs beyond August 15 2007 (which CO seems to have asked USCIS for already).

Whilst not as exact as actual I-485 submissions, it is fairly easy to build in a margin when setting the COD. Making it Current is not necessary.

[bieber]

Running out of documentarily qualified cases is not exactly the same as not knowing potential demand.

A fixed Cut off Date in the future can be set by estimating future applications on the basis of known I-140 approvals with PDs beyond August 15 2007 (which CO seems to have asked USCIS for already).

Whilst not as exact as actual I-485 submissions, it is fairly easy to build in a margin when setting the COD. Making it Current is not necessary.

Spec, I don't disagree with you but I believe there is enough grey area to pursue CALS, Will DOS/CIS defend successfully? most likely yes. Is there enough appetite for CALS, may be not

[qesehmk]

Texan

Welcome and must say WAY TO GO as far as starting your business goes. Good luck.

Anyways, I told myself I will not allow this wait to stunt my growth. I registered LLC last year, hired a person and have humble no of clients so far. This has given me a sense of satisfaction.

I am not doing ok. I really want to visit my family in this winter, but this Sep VB destroyed my plan completely.
I haven't seen my family for 3 years. It's a painful waiting............

Can you not travel on your H1? What's the situation?

i have put in last 2 years into my startup and making $4k/month in revenue(number looks small but takes tons of effort). Hope to go fulltime by this year end. And that would be that of this H1-B contracting crap. I cant take this nonsense stifling of my career @random_jerk_manager anymore.

ssvp that is truly great! I wonder if we should be starting a thread on our experiences / problems with startups?

can someone pls summarize the knowledge on PWMB and porting demand and how about it limits the movement next year till maximum jan-mar 2008?

The best way to avoid confusion is to look at the header of this thread or a number of threads in FACTS and DATA section. We all keep those threads updated.

[qesehmk]

I am a bit lost on why people think EB3 is receiving any SO visas? They are NOT.

If the fear is about future, CO has no reason to favor EB3IC over EB2IC. As per ROW, they are already moving to EB2 which is why the average annual demand in EB2 ROW has jumped from 16K per year Pre-2007 levels to 33K post-2007 levels.

[Spectator]

Long time reader. You guys are doing a real great job providing clarity. I have started understanding the nuances a lot better now thanks to all of you on this forum.

Question for Spectator -
In this scenario, how far do you think the dates need to move? Are folks who sent the documents corresponding to NVC receipts considered documentarily qualified? So, can we assume the date need to move in EB2 to cover those before giving them to EB3.

My lawyer picked CP for me because he told me at the time this provides us most flexibility. I was also asked to ignore the email from NVC about the bill and file for AOS when the dates become current.

PDJan2008,

Welcome to the forum.

That is impossible to answer.

If DOS moved the dates purely on the basis of documentarily qualified applicants, then the dates would move much further. That is what bieber is saying.

If DOS move the dates based on estimates of future Demand, they will move a lot less. That is my counterpoint to the above.

Not a satisfactory answer, I agree.

The whole point, is that DOS has a large array of strategies they can pursue next year. They can probably justify all of them.

I don't know which one, or combination, they will choose, neither am I advocating one over another or which one is more likely.

There are some constraints to repeating the same level of movement in May/June again.

We will only get a clue when something happens in the VB that makes one more likely over the other.

[PlainSpeak]

I'm not saying they are, Eb3 will and should get visas provided eb2c date is C. Eb2 is getting spillover only because EB1 is C, same thing will happen if EB3 gets SO from EB2

There is no reason to believe CIS/DOS will favor one category over other

Think from CIS point of view. They dont care about EB2 or EB3 or EB1 for that matter. All they care about is working within the parameters laid down by the law and they have a lot of leeway in interpreting the law. They will not fill up the pipe line just because EB2 wants EAD

[bieber]

Think from CIS point of view. They dont care about EB2 or EB3 or EB1 for that matter. All they care about is working within the parameters laid down by the law and they have a lot of leeway in interpreting the law. They will not fill up the pipe line just because EB2 wants EAD

I don't think I made a point where they will make it C because EB2 wants EAD. I was certainly arguing about parameters laid down by the law

[qblogfan]

My family work for military missle navigation and their visas were denied in 2006. We are not their allies.

Can u ask them to visit you? i know it's hard waiting on sidelines but is there anything that can make u feel better than remorse and curse for something which is not in our hands? just wondering...