EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[gc_usa]

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

[neospeed]

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

Yes this is a great idea, we can also collect some funds to make this happen.

[qesehmk]

soggadu, i hope the days come when you once again revert back to your old profile picture!
I still don't have good news. Crossing fingers.

p.s. - I noticed you have now formally also become a Guru!

not bad we still have 73 people sucking info...

Q, on other note...its been 10 days and you havent given us any good news abt ur GC... whats up??

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

That is an interesting idea. Spec Teddy and others what do you guys think?

[evoori]

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?

We can divide earlier PWMBs into two now.. those before 15APR07 who did get a chance to file 485 but still are not documentarily qualified.. they are not included in 8000 but with time they will be qualified and increase the number..
second types of PWMBs are still PWMBs with PD after 15APR07.. they are also not included in 8000 and will be included only when PD moves forward..

depending upon how many first type of PWMBs are there and how many EB2 visa they approve, 8000 may go up or down (most likely will go up because there are already 7800+ qualified I485 pending between Apr and July07).

[soggadu]

soggadu, i hope the days come when you once again revert back to your old profile picture!
I still don't have good news. Crossing fingers.

p.s. - I noticed you have now formally also become a Guru!

I know...though i didnt speak much... i was disappointed...but no problem... new day new hope... i wish u get ur cards soon... i guess u might have to open a SR or something after 2 weeks... it worked in my frnds group...

Good idea by gc_usa... count my yes on it...

[evoori]

I made a graph of GC movement for the last 4 years.. the disconnects are Unavailable numbers.. if someone wants I can post or send the raw data I used..


GC_Movement.jpg

[skpanda]

Yes.. if i were you i would file for H1b Extension with as much required paper work as possible. I would do that even if ur date becomes current in next 1 or 2 months.

It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?

[whereismygclost]

Q and other gurus,
Can someone quickly come up with a quick dirty most pessimistic SOFAD for 2012 adding expected spillovers from Family,EB1,EB2-ROW,EB5 etc? I just wanted to gauge what will be the worst case for 2012 ....treat it like as worse as Sehwag getting out first ball duck today morning(and I woke up at 3 am with alarm to watch him)!

Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.

[soggadu]

Q and other gurus,
Can someone quickly come up with a quick dirty most pessimistic SOFAD for 2012 adding expected spillovers from Family,EB1,EB2-ROW,EB5 etc? I just wanted to gauge what will be the worst case for 2012 ....treat it like as worse as Sehwag getting out first ball duck today morning(and I woke up at 3 am with alarm to watch him)!

last i heard 18K... Q had posted it some where in the back pages...

[neospeed]

I think we will at least get 5k from each eb1,eb5,and eb2 row, which totals to 15k.

[natvyas]

I think we will at least get 5k from each eb1,eb5,and eb2 row, which totals to 15k.

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

[ssvp22]

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

I agree with this. Only option is to upgrade yourself to EB1 and give it a shot. At most you will loose $10k and you will know in 3-5 months time from start to finish.

[neospeed]

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

I think they only added eb1c, the rest of the eb1 categories already have the option of PP. Any way if cis have an agenda of clearing the eb1 and eb2 row backlogs at the end of the last quarter which happened this year and last year, it doesn't make any difference having PP or not.

[iamdeb]

Hi Friends,

We can see that everyone with PD date after July 2007 are stuck there. Way the CO has been going, no idea when people with PD in 2008 and later will be able to file for I 485.What are the options for persons whose I 140 has been approved but havn't been able to file I 485 yet?
So I want to know if the following options are possible.
a) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and working on different tools and platform but similar role.
b) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and with different role as well.
c) Staying in same project but getting promoted.
d) Switching jobs to a new employer. Will I be able to capture my old PD if my employer withdraws my I 140?

Thanks,
Deb

[vishnu]

Qblogfan - any further comments on the mittbs blogs on CO's insights? Or is it really just what was posted yesterday.

[imechanix]

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

This is very useful & gives a peek in the box.

I think there is a typo: it should be Mar 08 instead of Mar07

[imechanix]

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

Thanks to Nishanth & Spec.

Spec,

Why is there still demand from Jan 2007 to April 2007. Shouldn't it be zero since the dates are current until 15April 07.
May be you can update your post # 3 with this data. Also, I agree on new thread for FY 2012.

Thanks.

[imechanix]

Spec,

may be the 8000 needed to be split in to 4 parts and assign to Apr/May, May/June, June/July. July/Aug. how about the following, also 1000 of porting to each month just to spread it

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 62
February 2007 -------------- 157
March 2007 ----------------- 281
April 2007 ----------------- 1,041
May 2007 ------------------- 3,625
June 2007 ------------------ 7,051
July 2007 ------------------ 10,054
August 2007 ---------------- 13,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

I don't understand why we should include demand for months before April 2007 (as it is current now).

[bieber]

I don't understand why we should include demand for months before April 2007 (as it is current now).

Those are the PERMs approved post Aug15th 2007 so they filed 485 in last month or will file very soon, those numbers are not part of existing inventory or demand data. (essentially PWMB)

[Spectator]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[imechanix]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Nice! I like this better. I'll probably go in hibernation now.

[neospeed]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

This looks better, thanks Spec.

[veni001]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Spec,

This looks better, you may want to replace Post#3 with this one.

[TeluguBidda]

Whoever is carrying out Predictions for next year may want to factor in most likely upcoming economic recession. It could very well be the case that EB1 and EB2ROW do not consume the same amount of visas as that of this fiscal year.

[qblogfan]

People are mad as hell on mitbbs. EB2C had a high hope and the last VB was a crash landing finally.

Many people's dreams have been destroyed. Sadly our strength is too small and we can't change anything.

Qblogfan - any further comments on the mittbs blogs on CO's insights? Or is it really just what was posted yesterday.