EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[android09]

I would like to know the views of Gurus and experts on a job change situation. With the current scenario, this will be applicable to many folks in this forum from April onwards. A lot of people have been eagerly waiting for 180 days to be over after I-485 was filed. I saw "bones20" was counting the days very precisely. Now things are looking optimistic and quite a few 2011 EB2 PD guys also surprisingly got GC and many more are getting medical RFE. The question is - If a person is desperately waiting to use AC21 but he gets GC, I am sure he will be super happy. But can he continue with his job change plan or does he need to wait for another six months?

Which PD 2011 EB2 folks got their green card?? Just curious. Dates have never gone beyond 2010 AFAIK.

[Moveon]

I have worked as an Engineer, Engineering Manager and VP of Engineering with the same Org for 13 years now. My attorney did not bat an eye in keeping the same PERM and I-140 and said she will handle it if anyone raises objections. Some of the larger law firms though do use some shady tactics when you are close to the finish line because they know you see the end in sight and will not mind shelling out a few extra bucks before they move on to the next host.

Way to go Turbulent_Dragonfly, Bravo. Glad you did not miss out else you would be sitting in a cube , writing code being ever depressed . The problem with most of us is that our circle of friends is just people in tech or white collar folks . Volunteer in food banks , work with those on the floor where you will meet people who have got GC/passports under refugee/asylum etc but the true reason is to avoid poverty back home. They had no issues and got citizenship in less than 10 years . They avail of every benefit, I am not sure if all taxes are paid .
We on the other are so conservative that we will not avail of benefits of tax breaks if there is a .00001% chance of audit . We all have our risk appetite and I should confess that my appetite for risk is low. I missed out on good opportunities in my initial days here and worked for the same company for close to a decade , till I said enough is enough . If benefits out weigh the risks by a huge margin and there is some recourse I would take it . Its like the Covid Vaccine . Benefits are orders of magnitude higher than the risk.

[qesehmk]

Way to go Turbulent_Dragonfly, Bravo. Glad you did not miss out else you would be sitting in a cube , writing code being ever depressed . The problem with most of us is that our circle of friends is just people in tech or white collar folks . Volunteer in food banks , work with those on the floor where you will meet people who have got GC/passports under refugee/asylum etc but the true reason is to avoid poverty back home. They had no issues and got citizenship in less than 10 years . They avail of every benefit, I am not sure if all taxes are paid .
We on the other are so conservative that we will not avail of benefits of tax breaks if there is a .00001% chance of audit . We all have our risk appetite and I should confess that my appetite for risk is low. I missed out on good opportunities in my initial days here and worked for the same company for close to a decade , till I said enough is enough . If benefits out weigh the risks by a huge margin and there is some recourse I would take it . Its like the Covid Vaccine . Benefits are orders of magnitude higher than the risk.

But there is not even any risk here moveon. USCIS has no policy on how long a PERM should be valid, how long an I-140 should be valid. Do they expect people to not progress in their career for 15 freaking years!! So don't worry too much my friends. If you are moving especially with the same employer and same line of work - just do it.

[Mgajsk]

Question on working on EAD.

Till yesterday , I thought I keep working with my employer after receiving EAD because if the EB3 moves ahead of 2011 March, I can downgrade to EB3 to get GC early.
Now , I dont think that is necessary anymore because of the expected spilloved to eb2 and confirmed by Charlie O.

If that is the case, Can I starting working on EAD and be on two different W2s ?
Any pitfalls in this scenario ?.Can anyone in the group who has been independent consulting on EAD throw some light?

Really appreciate if anyone throw some light on this..

[Transformer]

Really appreciate if anyone throw some light on this..

There is a very good chance for EB2 March 2011 to be current this year. You can do as many jobs on EAD but at least one job should be in same/similar category and willing to give you 485J when needed.

[Moveon]

But there is not even any risk here moveon. USCIS has no policy on how long a PERM should be valid, how long an I-140 should be valid. Do they expect people to not progress in their career for 15 freaking years!! So don't worry too much my friends. If you are moving especially with the same employer and same line of work - just do it.

Yes that is what Fragomen told me . The lawyer told me that USCIS has not rejected anyone for moving from IC to Engg Manager/Director when PD has been lying so far behind. People claim that they were but the reason is probably something else and they use this as a guise to avoid their actual fault. He said that if one moves from IC to Product Management/Marketing then they need to be careful but still can be handled if the job description is composed right. My friend on EB3 moved from IC to TPM in 2017 but as it was under the engineering they did not do anything . He got GC in 2019 and they filed his Supp-J as TPM.

Here is the USCIS doc - https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/...rt-e-chapter-5 . the 180 rule is only when the AOS is pending. Not after approval . Employment in the US is At-Will in almost all cases. Asking someone to stay after GC will need an amendment to the AC-21 act from what I understand .

Q , Congrats on 5000+ runs .

[Mgajsk]

There is a very good chance for EB2 March 2011 to be current this year. You can do as many jobs on EAD but at least one job should be in same/similar category and willing to give you 485J when needed.

Thank you Transformer. I keep reading 2011 Eb2 PD folks receiving green-cards. Not sure how true it is but would be nice to get greened without hassles.

[newyorker123]

You are sure your current employer is not going to file AOS. You said you have a new job offer. I am not sure is it monetary consideration that is not letting you change the job?

If you want to take advantage of any possible advancements in October 2021, you need to make your move now and start your Perm immediately following the ad norms and conditions and hope it gets approved by October. Then you might have a chance to file concurrent. It is again a long shot but possible. But if you are thinking of staying back with current job and try later in October, it might be too late.

I wish PERM gets faster. Prevailing Wage Determination itself is taking 4-5 months, PERM 8+ months. Plus Ads etc. etc. can even make it 1.25-1.5 years if things don't change

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Thank you Transformer. I keep reading 2011 Eb2 PD folks receiving green-cards. Not sure how true it is but would be nice to get greened without hassles.

You can assume that most of it is from fake trolls who just want to rile others up or get people excited. Not saying that GCs have been issued by mistake before, but they are few and far in between.

[qesehmk]

You can assume that most of it is from fake trolls who just want to rile others up or get people excited. Not saying that GCs have been issued by mistake before, but they are few and far in between.

Such cases have a very easy explanation. It was a desi guy / gal that later on married an ROW person and then interfiled as ROW. At least 99% such stories can be explained this way.

[AceMan]

You can assume that most of it is from fake trolls who just want to rile others up or get people excited. Not saying that GCs have been issued by mistake before, but they are few and far in between.

Four years back there was one guy who got his GC approved by mistake in trackitt. The following thread was the follow up action after his 2nd gc was issued.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...ervice-request

[GCkaLADDU]

Need help with a weird situation.

I had filed my i-131 and i-765 separately (early Feb) after getting a 485 receipt. My AOS related biometric was completed on 03/17 and case status shows 'Fingerprints taken'. Today my i-131 status changed 'Biometric appointment scheduled' which is baffling because my understanding was that AP doesn't need a separate biometric and moreover, I just had completed it for AOS couple of days back.

Anyone heard of this scenario before?

[android09]

I and my spouse got our fingerprints taken on March 03. Our case status when we reached home changed to -Case is being actively reviewed by USCIS- Has anyone seen this? No change since then.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I and my spouse got our fingerprints taken on March 03. Our case status when we reached home changed to -Case is being actively reviewed by USCIS- Has anyone seen this? No change since then.

Interesting. I did not know that such a status existed but looks like it does: https://www.fickeymartinezlaw.com/im...l-explanation/

My case has been stuck on Fingerprints received since I attended the FP appointment in the first week of Dec.

[sk.aggarwal]

I have worked as an Engineer, Engineering Manager and VP of Engineering with the same Org for 13 years now. My attorney did not bat an eye in keeping the same PERM and I-140 and said she will handle it if anyone raises objections. Some of the larger law firms though do use some shady tactics when you are close to the finish line because they know you see the end in sight and will not mind shelling out a few extra bucks before they move on to the next host.

Thanks. To close loop on this, was able to convince my manager that new duties are extension of what I was originally doing. Surprisingly, he was more open to keep things simple than I thought

[texas_]

I submitted 485 in October 2020 and EAD/AP in December 2020
Recently received biometric appointment that mentioned my EAD Receipt number

Will I receive another biometric appointment for I485?

[bones20]

HI SK,
Fragomen will tell you not to refile . Let me tell you by experience. I joined a new emp about 4 years ago as an IC and moved to Manager . BAL was the firm told me that as my job was 80% technincal no need to refile . Got RFE and responded with Meds and Supp-J. The USCIS never got back.
After 8 months quit and joined another firm as an architect but did not file Supplement-J. In 2 months an opportunity came in the same team and I was offered Sr Manager . I took it up and this time Fragomen said that as it was just an additional responsibility to the architect's position no need to refile . The two biggest firms said that there was no need to refile as only new responsibilities were added to existing ones . I still code and architect .
Responded to the RFE 2 months ago. I will let you know on what happens once I hear back. I am Dec 2009 so might hear back soon. I am not worried, will deal with it if they raise an issue . Fragomen was very confident of not refiling . they said "no issue" and also sent am email from the main lawyer after review

If you are an IC progressing to a manager, all the instances (5+) I have seen, the PERM was redone.

[moonlight]

You can assume that most of it is from fake trolls who just want to rile others up or get people excited. Not saying that GCs have been issued by mistake before, but they are few and far in between.

I have noticed some trolls in trackitt now and then. But people in this forum are mostly sensible and responsible. Moreover, folks who have been waiting for GC over a decade are matured enough and beyond all these troll business. Sometimes we got to trust our fellow men. I was making the statement of GC issuance and medical RFE based on these two trackitt references. They might be true or fake as they are in open forum. But personally I don’t have reason to disbelieve them. 


GC Issuance( Pretty recent from post#8 - 13 Feb 2021)
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...current


Many occurrences of Medical RFE
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

[bones20]

I have read that article but when there is nothing in the law that states how long one needs to stay at the job how do you enforce it? Why 180 and not 365 days. Honestly the USCIS has no resources to look into this. There are people who come in some categories and get citizenship when there is so much evidence of fraud but the USCIS looks the other way . Employment is the the cleanest of all, so why fear. We pay crazy taxes, don't break any law but live in fear .
I know of people who have quit in a couple of months and had no issues with the Citizenship.
I respect Murthy.com but when they say "Anyone considering a job change shortly after approval of a green card may wish to consult first with an experienced immigration attorney." looks like they are hoping for a client.

We somehow are so risk averse that we always assume the worst case and miss out on opportunities . After I got my EAD in 2012 , I never got my HIB that expired that year. Switched jobs on EAD. Submitted Supp-J only when the RFE came the last 2 times. Moved from IC to Management without the refiling (I still do 75% technical so did not bother ) while so many told me to wait. Had I done that would have missed on so many opportunities .

Nothing Ventured Nothing Gained .

Glad to hear about your experience. While I agree on the outcome, I am not sure if your actions/advice are legally safe if the argument is "this is how it should be" or "lawyers just want more money" or "they wont to keep you bonded for longer" or "come on lets take chances and not miss out opportunities". These are more in the line of thoughts and not advice.

[Moveon]

Glad to hear about your experience. While I agree on the outcome, I am not sure if your actions/advice are legally safe if the argument is "this is how it should be" or "lawyers just want more money" or "they wont to keep you bonded for longer" or "come on lets take chances and not miss out opportunities". These are more in the line of thoughts and not advice.

Bones 20 , for the record nothing on this forum is "Legal Advice" . Only a lawyer can give you that and they too have a long list of disclaimers. We can only speak from experience and as you put it - one's opinion on a question asked.

[Positive]

So, based on Chat with Charlie, presuming EB gets 275K for 2022 and do we expect both EB2 and EB3 India dates to reach end of 2013 by the end of 2022 fiscal presuming not too many visas are wasted?

[AceMan]

So, based on Chat with Charlie, presuming EB gets 275K for 2022 and do we expect both EB2 and EB3 India dates to reach end of 2013 by the end of 2022 fiscal presuming not too many visas are wasted?

Wrong question.
Presume -> ??
Expect -> ??
presuming -> visa wasted??

[Positive]

Wrong question.
Presume -> ??
Expect -> ??
presuming -> visa wasted??

Well, presume:
There are at least 275k eb visas for 2022 fiscal
EB Visa wasted in 2021 is 10-15% as Charlie inisted was the usual case, or 5% in case of 2020.
Presume EB2, EB3 duplicates (and PERM duplicated) are way bigger than wastage
Can we expect EB2 and EB3 will have final action dates in Dec, 2013 by Sept. 2022 visa bulletin?

[vsivarama]

Well, presume:
There are at least 275k eb visas for 2022 fiscal
EB Visa wasted in 2021 is 10-15% as Charlie inisted was the usual case, or 5% in case of 2020.
Presume EB2, EB3 duplicates (and PERM duplicated) are way bigger than wastage
Can we expect EB2 and EB3 will have final action dates in Dec, 2013 by Sept. 2022 visa bulletin?

Ask this question again in Oct. Right now there are way too many unknowns to make predictions which are even marginally accurate. There is always the possibility of people getting greened till 2013 the next year, but come October we maybe able to grasp the probability. I am guessing you are more interested in the latter.

[AceMan]

Well, presume:
There are at least 275k eb visas for 2022 fiscal
EB Visa wasted in 2021 is 10-15% as Charlie inisted was the usual case, or 5% in case of 2020.
Presume EB2, EB3 duplicates (and PERM duplicated) are way bigger than wastage
Can we expect EB2 and EB3 will have final action dates in Dec, 2013 by Sept. 2022 visa bulletin?

EB visa wasted in 2020 was an isolated situation due to covid. Still they managed to use 148 K visas for the year.
EB 2021 had 261,000 visas and next 6 months the remaining visas from 261,000 is going to be exclusively available for Eb2 India majority and Eb3 India minority due to embassies still not working as efficiently in pre covid times
So like the previous poster said wait till October to see if 2013 December dates can be reached in October 2021 itself.