EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[rsnake]

Not quite sure how much USCIS manpower is taken exactly by all the family GC petitions; but if EB is getting all these spillover doesn't USCIS save all the time usually spent on family GCs in the fiscal year.

As CO said today, 90 to 95% of FB visas are processed abroad, and the rest are AOS from the US. So very less manpower is saved on USCIS' side.

[Transformer]

you need it for the GC especially if you are the Primary .

If I am not wrong, you need to have a valid passport when you apply for 485. After that you don’t need it from GC perspective. DL is enough for finger printing. Could you please tell what else you need it for?

[xeqtr85]

The USCIS is involved in the first step of the FB process when a principal applicant (usually US Based) applies for I-130. After the I-130 is approved the process shifts to the DOS. Current I-130 processing times are between 11-15 months. This has remained fairly static over time and the overseas embassy closure and travel ban should not affect this. It does not appear like the USCIS stopped receiving/processing these applications during this period.

In that case hope USCIS would internally figure out an optimal solution here; focus their processing capacity efficiently and not waste too much of the SO. Given the bottleneck of family based petitions waiting for consular processing.

[AceMan]

CO seems to be certain that there will be at least a total of 275K GCs available in EB category next year. With EB1 current and EB2 getting both vertical and horizontal SO I would say it would be advantageous if you stayed put in EB2. Again it's just my opinion based on new facts that came into light, so take it for what it's worth. Downgrade (for folks like us) made sense back in October, as we did not know about the potential SO numbers for FY2022 and also had no idea how the future rules in H1 would shape up under Stephen Miller's watch. Now that I know the estimate of future SO numbers, I will stick to my downgraded EB3 (my PD is similar to yours). It's a waste of USCIS' time to interfile back to EB2 as @aceman would put it.

This might be most agreeable post of yours for me after some shadow boxing few weeks back. It was obvious that in October 2020 EAD was a bird in hand and there was no information that Eb1 India will be current by the end of 2nd quarter. I am happy that you got the gist of comment regarding interfile.

But in future if Eb2 moves fast you have every reason to utilize the available path which can get your GC faster. Don?t worry, I will still be throwing darts to show my displeasure at it. Good luck dear, once we get GC we should have an alumni meet of Q - 20s for people greened in this decade.

[gs1968]

In that case hope USCIS would internally figure out an optimal solution here; focus their processing capacity efficiently and not waste too much of the SO. Given the bottleneck of family based petitions waiting for consular processing.

It would make the most sense but I think the USCIS is a single speed pony usually cantering with the occasional trot but never capable of a full speed gallop.

[qesehmk]

cantering with the occasional trot but never capable of a full speed gallop.

LoL !! Now I am really curious about your background!!

[pdc2013]

Hi All,

New to this forum, just learned about CO prediction about SO in 2021 FY.

Im in a unique situation, please help me. My PD is Nov 2013. I missed the bus last year when DOF was current and could not file I485 due to job change as previous employer did not support.

Currently working with a consulting firm, which filed PWD and client project is done.

I now have 2 job offers, 1) current consulting firm with new project 2) Full time job offer

Have to decide between 2 offers, what will you suggest, given CO info and New wage rule going in effect from July 2021.

[Djidondon]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation where I have new job offer but my current employer would not support for AOS if my PD Nov 2016 becomes current in EB2I or EB3I in chart B filling dates if EB category get the 275k+ visa numbers I?m really confused now that I might miss adjusting my status if I take the new job.

After Charlies interview today he is predicting at least 275k unused visa numbers for EB category for FY2022, do you think PD Nov 2016 will become current in Chart B filling dates for EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin with this all time high visa numbers for FY2022,

For FY2021 there was a huge forward movement in EB3I chart B filling dates from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 , do you think will there be a similar forward movement in EB3I or EB2I for PD Nov 2016 to become current in filling dates and USCIS to honor filling dates for AOS by that time. I appreciate your time. Thank you

[Moveon]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation where I have new job offer but my current employer would not support for AOS if my PD Nov 2016 becomes current in EB2I or EB3I in chart B filling dates if EB category get the 275k+ visa numbers I?m really confused now that I might miss adjusting my status if I take the new job.

After Charlies interview today he is predicting at least 275k unused visa numbers for EB category for FY2022, do you think PD Nov 2016 will become current in Chart B filling dates for EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin with this all time high visa numbers for FY2022,

For FY2021 there was a huge forward movement in EB3I chart B filling dates from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 , do you think will there be a similar forward movement in EB3I or EB2I for PD Nov 2016 to become current in filling dates and USCIS to honor filling dates for AOS by that time. I appreciate your time. Thank you

Nov 2016 is far and I don't think will get on the bulletin for a couple of years. I would change if I were in your place .

[SG2020]

If I am not wrong, you need to have a valid passport when you apply for 485. After that you don?t need it from GC perspective. DL is enough for finger printing. Could you please tell what else you need it for?

Thanks. My passport had one year left when I filed I-485. Will appreciate if anyone could confirm when else I will need it. And once I renew it, do I need to share the new passport details to USCIS?

[AceMan]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation where I have new job offer but my current employer would not support for AOS if my PD Nov 2016 becomes current in EB2I or EB3I in chart B filling dates if EB category get the 275k+ visa numbers I?m really confused now that I might miss adjusting my status if I take the new job.

After Charlies interview today he is predicting at least 275k unused visa numbers for EB category for FY2022, do you think PD Nov 2016 will become current in Chart B filling dates for EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin with this all time high visa numbers for FY2022,

For FY2021 there was a huge forward movement in EB3I chart B filling dates from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 , do you think will there be a similar forward movement in EB3I or EB2I for PD Nov 2016 to become current in filling dates and USCIS to honor filling dates for AOS by that time. I appreciate your time. Thank you

This is a very common question, however the answer depends on what you want to do. Before getting too excited with 275K for FY 22 you got to know lot of things with your PD in Nov 2016

If you current employer is not supportive for AOS for Nov 2016, which btw is 6 years out for EB3 and nearly 7 years for EB2 you should take the new job from immigration perspective.

For FY21, in October 2020 the filing charts was at January 2015, which was pulled back to January 2014 within couple of bulletins, before stop accepting the filing dates all together for January 2021. For FY 2021 we had 262,000 not too far from 275,000 announced yesterday for 2022.

Right now, due to the after effects of covid ban (unintended benefit provided by the President you love or hate but cannot ignore) the remaining EB visa's for 2021 is exclusively available for Indians in AOS. Expecting the situation to be same after October 2021 may be incorrect.

Your best case scenario, is to take the new job, start working on getting new PERM, which can take nearly a year, then apply for 140 and 485 if your filing dates are good for 2023. With the current visibility, people are ecstatic about EB2, however EB2 has 5 times the number of primaries in EB3. Eb2 or EB3 is a decision you can take next year when your perm is applied and your job specification can fit both category.

[Djidondon]

This is a very common question, however the answer depends on what you want to do. Before getting too excited with 275K for FY 22 you got to know lot of things with your PD in Nov 2016

If you current employer is not supportive for AOS for Nov 2016, which btw is 6 years out for EB3 and nearly 7 years for EB2 you should take the new job from immigration perspective.

For FY21, in October 2020 the filing charts was at January 2015, which was pulled back to January 2014 within couple of bulletins, before stop accepting the filing dates all together for January 2021. For FY 2021 we had 262,000 not too far from 275,000 announced yesterday for 2022.

Right now, due to the after effects of covid ban (unintended benefit provided by the President you love or hate but cannot ignore) the remaining EB visa's for 2021 is exclusively available for Indians in AOS. Expecting the situation to be same after October 2021 may be incorrect.

Your best case scenario, is to take the new job, start working on getting new PERM, which can take nearly a year, then apply for 140 and 485 if your filing dates are good for 2023. With the current visibility, people are ecstatic about EB2, however EB2 has 5 times the number of primaries in EB3. Eb2 or EB3 is a decision you can take next year when your perm is applied and your job specification can fit both category.

AceMan, thank you for your time in responding to my situation I appreciate that. As you said, the chart B filling dates had a significant move in EB3I from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 ( for nearly 5 years in Oct, Nov, Dec 2020 visa bulletins) for total 262k visa numbers for EB category, I?m just confused on why would there be no forward movement in EB3I filling dates chart B for at least 3 years forward movement until Jan 2017 if there is 275k visa numbers or more available for EB category in FY2022 which is higher than FY2021.

[AceMan]

AceMan, thank you for your time in responding to my situation I appreciate that. As you said, the chart B filling dates had a significant move in EB3I from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 ( for nearly 5 years in Oct, Nov, Dec 2020 visa bulletins) for total 262k visa numbers for EB category, I?m just confused on why would there be no forward movement in EB3I filling dates chart B for at least 3 years forward movement until Jan 2017 if there is 275k visa numbers or more available for EB category in FY2022 which is higher than FY2021.

You are thinking possibly in October 21 bulletin, USCIS advances EB3 dates to January 2017 just like they did in October 2020 bulletin when they moved the filing dates from April 2010 to January 15 and then January 14 after seeing the incoming downgrades.

It is possible, however in your previous post, you said your current employer is not ready to file your AOS. So how is staying with the current employer going to help you? Are you planning to go back to your old employer who filed your GC or a totally new employer?

[srimurthy]

You are thinking possibly in October 21 bulletin, USCIS advances EB3 dates to January 2017 just like they did in October 2020 bulletin when they moved the filing dates from April 2010 to January 15 and then January 14 after seeing the incoming downgrades.

It is possible, however in your previous post, you said your current employer is not ready to file your AOS. So how is staying with the current employer going to help you? Are you planning to go back to your old employer who filed your GC or a totally new employer?

I guess we also need to understand that the 270K are available for use, whether they will be used or not for allocation is the actual step on how many pending cases have been cleared and then how much the dates can move.
Last year the wastage was only 7K, so it depends on how much is wasted and lost this year to even look at the possible dates movements beyond 2014 or 2015. We will have more clarity on that future dates in Oct'21.
The positive vibe with the movements is that the expectations of people in EB2-I before 2011 and EB3-I before 2012 getting cleared and getting a GC has increased.

[Djidondon]

You are thinking possibly in October 21 bulletin, USCIS advances EB3 dates to January 2017 just like they did in October 2020 bulletin when they moved the filing dates from April 2010 to January 15 and then January 14 after seeing the incoming downgrades.

It is possible, however in your previous post, you said your current employer is not ready to file your AOS. So how is staying with the current employer going to help you? Are you planning to go back to your old employer who filed your GC or a totally new employer?

I must have been more clear in my previous post, my current employer is not ready to file AOS in future ( in case if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates for EB3I in FY2022) if I leave him and join a new company.

Yes I was thinking if there is a possibility for EB3I filling dates to move forward like Oct 2020 visa bulletin in Oct 2021 visa bulletin and if my PD becomes current in filling dates chart B I would like to get rid of H1B and be on EAD if there is such opportunity.

[rsnake]

AceMan, thank you for your time in responding to my situation I appreciate that. As you said, the chart B filling dates had a significant move in EB3I from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 ( for nearly 5 years in Oct, Nov, Dec 2020 visa bulletins) for total 262k visa numbers for EB category, I?m just confused on why would there be no forward movement in EB3I filling dates chart B for at least 3 years forward movement until Jan 2017 if there is 275k visa numbers or more available for EB category in FY2022 which is higher than FY2021.

There are a few things to watch out for, including the fact that Democrats included a provision to keep FB visas in FB in their CARES act last year which passed the House. If something like that gets passed or included in another bill that passes, we won't see the extra visas. Plus with the pandemic coming to an end, we will see increased filings from EB ROW, including from pent up demand at the consulates.

[3March2010]

Experts: I am (EB2I, PD March 2010) in an interesting situation where I have responded to the RFE incl. Supp J, but have another attractive offer now from another employer (same job class/code). Can I switch jobs while they are working on my case since I am current in April bulletin? Thanks for the comments.

[AceMan]

I must have been more clear in my previous post, my current employer is not ready to file AOS in future ( in case if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates for EB3I in FY2022) if I leave him and join a new company.

Yes I was thinking if there is a possibility for EB3I filling dates to move forward like Oct 2020 visa bulletin in Oct 2021 visa bulletin and if my PD becomes current in filling dates chart B I would like to get rid of H1B and be on EAD if there is such opportunity.

You are sure your current employer is not going to file AOS. You said you have a new job offer. I am not sure is it monetary consideration that is not letting you change the job?

If you want to take advantage of any possible advancements in October 2021, you need to make your move now and start your Perm immediately following the ad norms and conditions and hope it gets approved by October. Then you might have a chance to file concurrent. It is again a long shot but possible. But if you are thinking of staying back with current job and try later in October, it might be too late.

[EB20112021]

Hi All,

Can someone suggest on this. situation : PD EB3, March- 2011, I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS scheduled : 19 MAR 21.
Fingers crossed, expecting FAD to be current in next 6 months (guess that's reasonable). I am looking to know what documents we need to carry for in-person interview.. originals of school, college and birth certificates? and one of my friends suggested me to have drivers history reports from DMV as well just to be sure. I dont have originals with me now and hence having my parents send this via Fedex with insurance. Any inputs here on documentation will help me to plan. Good luck everyone !! you guys are my strength !!

Best Regards

[Djidondon]

You are sure your current employer is not going to file AOS. You said you have a new job offer. I am not sure is it monetary consideration that is not letting you change the job?

If you want to take advantage of any possible advancements in October 2021, you need to make your move now and start your Perm immediately following the ad norms and conditions and hope it gets approved by October. Then you might have a chance to file concurrent. It is again a long shot but possible. But if you are thinking of staying back with current job and try later in October, it might be too late.

Current employer will file for AOS if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates either EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin as long as I?m on his payroll. He will not support for AOS if I leave the current job now and he would withdraw I-140.

I?m really worried if I move to a new job now the PERM would itself take almost 1 year and what if I got an opportunity to do an AOS when my PD becomes current in filling dates in either EB2I or EB3I if the huge spillover is coming for FY2022 as per DOS prediction 275k visa numbers for EB.

[vsivarama]

Current employer will file for AOS if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates either EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin as long as I?m on his payroll. He will not support for AOS if I leave the current job now and he would withdraw I-140.

I?m really worried if I move to a new job now the PERM would itself take almost 1 year and what if I got an opportunity to do an AOS when my PD becomes current in filling dates in either EB2I or EB3I if the huge spillover is coming for FY2022 as per DOS prediction 275k visa numbers for EB.

I do not see any possibility of your date being current in EB2I in FY2022. There is a marginal chance in EB3, but that would depend on the number downgrades to EB3 from 2011 to 2014 and the number of GCs issued in FY 2021. If they come close to using up all the GC numbers this year then yes, you have a chance for Nov 2016 in EB3I. It's very difficult to predict this without additional data from USCIS. You can take a chance with the new job and come back to your current employer if the filing dates become current if that's an option. Even if 2011 is cleared for EB2 and EB3 this FY there will be close to 175K primary applicants (not counting the dependents) before you waiting for a GC. Take a look at this i140 approval chart (page 2).

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

[ak7419]

This user is correct. Processing times for TSC have increased from 12.5 - 31.5 to now 12.5 - 51.5.

Holy cow!

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

Is this in response to Charlie's comments??!

[Moveon]

Thanks. My passport had one year left when I filed I-485. Will appreciate if anyone could confirm when else I will need it. And once I renew it, do I need to share the new passport details to USCIS?

You don't need to share the renewed passport details with them. You inform them only if you change your residence addr.

[Transformer]

I?m really worried if I move to a new job now the PERM would itself take almost 1 year and what if I got an opportunity to do an AOS when my PD becomes current in filling dates in either EB2I or EB3I if the huge spillover is coming for FY2022 as per DOS prediction 275k visa numbers for EB.

I think you are thinking too much. It’s a very remote possibility for 2016 date to be current even in next FY. If the opportunity is good go ahead and grab it. It’s judgement call.

[AceMan]

Current employer will file for AOS if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates either EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin as long as I?m on his payroll. He will not support for AOS if I leave the current job now and he would withdraw I-140.

I?m really worried if I move to a new job now the PERM would itself take almost 1 year and what if I got an opportunity to do an AOS when my PD becomes current in filling dates in either EB2I or EB3I if the huge spillover is coming for FY2022 as per DOS prediction 275k visa numbers for EB.

If you stay back your employer will file for AOS if your filing dates are current in October 21. That is from your immigration perspective. You stand a chance to get your EAD in 2022 around same time, and with EAD you have more avenues open if the dates move as you expect.

If you are prioritizing immediately on career, you will pick up the job offer, do your PERM at the first possible instance, and you will be able to file for your 140, some time after 1 year.

You could leave your current employer in good terms, and will a possibility of joining him back in October 21 if filing dates really advance past your PD. This would be the best of both worlds for you.