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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #2551
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by ak7419 View Post
    and all TSC folks who filed in 2012 who became current five or six months ago will continue to wait for their RFE to be issued...lol
    All pressure is now on USCIS as Charlie said that we will likely see aggressive movement from now on. They are telling USCIS that they somehow need to clean up their act and figure out how to use up the numbers as DHS will give them no more cover. As more days pass a lot more backlogged folks will start making some noise by escalating via their congressmen. That should wake up TSC from their deep slumber.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 03-17-2021 at 02:20 PM.

  2. #2552
    Hello Guys,

    My Lawyer is not responding so I would like to send the RFE answer by myself. I was asked for I-485 supplement J, new passport, medical exam, G325A and EAD copies. Is it a good idea to answer RFE by myself or hire a new one? I got Supplement J signed by my HR representative.

    Also what is the address that we need to send these documents to? I got RFE from NSC.

  3. #2553
    Quote Originally Posted by ak7419 View Post
    and all TSC folks who filed in 2012 who became current five or six months ago will continue to wait for their RFE to be issued...lol
    RFE for expired medicals is another subject where I have strong opinion after the downgrades. The entire concept of medicals after living in US for a decade is a classic example of waste.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  4. #2554
    Quote Originally Posted by bluelabel View Post
    Hello Guys,

    My Lawyer is not responding so I would like to send the RFE answer by myself. I was asked for I-485 supplement J, new passport, medical exam, G325A and EAD copies. Is it a good idea to answer RFE by myself or hire a new one? I got Supplement J signed by my HR representative.

    Also what is the address that we need to send these documents to? I got RFE from NSC.
    RFE has about 90 days to respond. Is it the case of lawyer not responding to you even after 75 days and you want to send it yourself?

    Let the people you or your company hired and paid for do their job if the above line I said is not true.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  5. #2555
    Charlie O is a pretty cool dude to come and do the YouTube chat. Refreshing to see such a change and transparency at least in the allocation process. I think it would do good for everyone to realize that CO can only allocate the visas and USCIS has to consume them. Hopefully they can start issuing GCs at breakneck pace moving forward. It would be awesome if we do get to the 275k total numbers that Charlie projected for next fiscal which would massively move the FADs. I sincerely wish people in 2013-14-15+ etc don't have to wait 11 years like some of us have had to.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  6. #2556
    Charlie mentioned that he is going to do this on a monthly basis (around 5th day after VB is released) is a very good sign. Hope USCIS follows his foot steps.

  7. #2557
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    Charlie O is a pretty cool dude to come and do the YouTube chat. Refreshing to see such a change and transparency at least in the allocation process. I think it would do good for everyone to realize that CO can only allocate the visas and USCIS has to consume them. Hopefully they can start issuing GCs at breakneck pace moving forward. It would be awesome if we do get to the 275k total numbers that Charlie projected for next fiscal which would massively move the FADs. I sincerely wish people in 2013-14-15+ etc don't have to wait 11 years like some of us have had to.
    Charlie most definitely is a good guy. He is bound by the system he works in. But IMHO he has always tried his best to be helpful to the immigrant community and at the very least maintain as much transparency as he could.

    It would be a good idea for everybody to thank him if you found the video useful.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  8. #2558
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Charlie most definitely is a good guy. He is bound by the system he works in. But IMHO he has always tried his best to be helpful to the immigrant community and at the very least maintain as much transparency as he could.

    It would be a good idea for everybody to thank him if you found the video useful.
    Yes, his answers very clear, He clearly said the interview waiver is a policy decision and he cannot control it.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  9. #2559
    Considering Apr bulletin dates and Charile's words, is it fair to estimate EB2 at May 2011 and EB3 at Dec 2011 by September 2021 bulletin?
    Any expert thoughts?

  10. #2560
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    Quote Originally Posted by pramod View Post
    Considering Apr bulletin dates and Charile's words, is it fair to estimate EB2 at May 2011 and EB3 at Dec 2011 by September 2021 bulletin?
    Any expert thoughts?
    Didn?t he say dates in Chart B which puts EB3I at 2014. With an EB3I PD of March 2011, we must be expecting a GC before an EAD looks like. Incidentally, our biometrics are scheduled for tomorrow and in 10 days we?d be celebrating a decade long wait.

  11. #2561
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    Hearing Charlie Oppenheim explain the spill over processes and interpretation of the INA laws now.
    I have to say...
    Gurus in this forum , @qesehmk ,@vsivarama and others I cant remember the names.. have been bang on target in estimating the spillover, future PD movement !!! Kudos to all of you and thank you all for your contributions.
    PD: 03/2011 (EB2-I) RD: 10/19/20 ND: 11/ 11 /20 BM: 01/12/21 EAD/AP :02/16/21

  12. #2562
    Hi - Due to certain personal reasons I was not able to focus on immigration or GC related matters back in Oct-Nov timeframe. My priority date is EB2 Jan 2012. So I missed filing my EB3 downgrade application and I485; with all the predictions now and recent updates from Charlie does it make sense to just wait and file my I485 directly in EB2 when the final action dates or filing dates are current. From all that I have read and understood there seems to be a good chance of my EB2 date being current in FAD itself later this fiscal year or early next fiscal year.

    Just wanted few other educated opinions on if there's any reason I should downgrade to EB3 when filing dates or final action dates in that category allow me to? Why add the extra EB3 I140 downgrade application step to my situation now; again this is very specific to my priority date of EB2 Jan 2012 and how I was not able to downgrade back in Oct last year. Appreciate any inputs.
    Last edited by xeqtr85; 03-17-2021 at 06:19 PM.

  13. #2563
    Quote Originally Posted by Mgajsk View Post
    Hearing Charlie Oppenheim explain the spill over processes and interpretation of the INA laws now.
    I have to say...
    Gurus in this forum , @qesehmk ,@vsivarama and others I cant remember the names.. have been bang on target in estimating the spillover, future PD movement !!! Kudos to all of you and thank you all for your contributions.
    See that's the beauty of Data based approach to predictions and forecast. If better data was available, then even better predictions are possible.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #2564
    Yoda
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    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
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    323
    Quote Originally Posted by xeqtr85 View Post
    Just wanted few other educated opinions on if there's any reason I should downgrade to EB3 when the filing dates or final action dates in that category allow me to? Why add the additional EB3 I140 application approval to my situation; again this is very specific to my priority date of EB2 Jan 2012 and how I was not able to downgrade back in Oct last year. Appreciate any inputs.
    CO seems to be certain that there will be at least a total of 275K GCs available in EB category next year. With EB1 current and EB2 getting both vertical and horizontal SO I would say it would be advantageous if you stayed put in EB2. Again it's just my opinion based on new facts that came into light, so take it for what it's worth. Downgrade (for folks like us) made sense back in October, as we did not know about the potential SO numbers for FY2022 and also had no idea how the future rules in H1 would shape up under Stephen Miller's watch. Now that I know the estimate of future SO numbers, I will stick to my downgraded EB3 (my PD is similar to yours). It's a waste of USCIS' time to interfile back to EB2 as @aceman would put it.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 03-17-2021 at 07:05 PM.

  15. #2565
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    CO seems to be certain that there will be at least a total of 275K GCs available in EB category next year. With EB1 current and EB2 getting both vertical and horizontal SO I would say it would be advantageous if you stayed put in EB2. Again it's just my opinion based new facts that came into light, so take it for what it's worth. Downgrade (for folks like us) made sense back in October, as we did not know about the potential SO numbers for FY2022 and also had no idea how the future rules in H1 would shape up under Stephen Miller's watch. Now that I know the estimate of future SO numbers, I will stick to my downgraded EB3 (my PD is similar to yours). It's a waste of USCIS' time to interfile back to EB2 as @aceman would put it.
    I think biggest missing gap here is the processing speed of USCIS and visa wastage.
    Charlie O hopefully keeps moving the dates and puts pressure on USCIS as he has indicated in the interview but if USCIS don't process the visas fast enough, Charlie O then slows down the movement based on that , it will stay advantageous for EB3 next year as well.
    PD EB3-I 10-28-2010; RD 10-23-2020 LPR 08-26-2021

  16. #2566
    Gurus,

    I downgraded from EB2 to EB3 in December; my PD is December 2012. I haven't changed the employer since I joined them more than a decade back.

    Question: when filing EB3 i140, I asked the company attorney about processing it in premium and they refused that my case cannot be processed in Premium but didn't give any reason even after I asked a couple times. Can anyone please guide if that is really the case or if they were just trying to avoid filing it in premium.? my case is at Nebraska and I see that current processing times for EB3 i140 is 5 months+ and after today's CO YouTube Live, I am overoptimistic that FAD for EB3 would most likely hit End of 2012 before this Fiscal and wanted to see that my EB3 i140 is approved well before then. Could anyone please give me some advice?

  17. #2567
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    CO seems to be certain that there will be at least a total of 275K GCs available in EB category next year. With EB1 current and EB2 getting both vertical and horizontal SO I would say it would be advantageous if you stayed put in EB2. Again it's just my opinion based new facts that came into light, so take it for what it's worth. Downgrade (for folks like us) made sense back in October, as we did not know about the potential SO numbers for FY2022 and also had no idea how the future rules in H1 would shape up under Stephen Miller's watch. Now that I know the estimate of future SO numbers, I will stick to my downgraded EB3 (my PD is similar to yours). It's a waste of USCIS' time to interfile back to EB2 as @aceman would put it.
    Agreed; esp. what you said about the change in the situation since Oct and more information available now.
    Last edited by xeqtr85; 03-17-2021 at 08:53 PM.

  18. #2568
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    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    I think biggest missing gap here is the processing speed of USCIS and visa wastage.
    Charlie O hopefully keeps moving the dates and puts pressure on USCIS as he has indicated in the interview but if USCIS don't process the visas fast enough, Charlie O then slows down the movement based on that , it will stay advantageous for EB3 next year as well.
    As Spec's post a few days ago stated the USCIS issued 147K GCs against an available limit of 156K for FY20. The current 262K is a 90% increase in annual numbers and is definitely a big jump. This would require a significant upgrade in infrastructure and manpower which at least so far we have not seen. Charlie O set an ambitious target for them to achieve and we have to see how they respond in the next 6 months

  19. #2569
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    I am in the same boat as you, my renewal last year I got an RFE for pics and I got only a one year extension. I filed renewal within 2 weeks of the 180 day window with TSC, hoping I can get the receipt in time to be able to get my employer to extend my employment for 180 days beyond EAD expiry

  20. #2570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noesis View Post
    Gurus,

    I downgraded from EB2 to EB3 in December; my PD is December 2012. I haven't changed the employer since I joined them more than a decade back.

    Question: when filing EB3 i140, I asked the company attorney about processing it in premium and they refused that my case cannot be processed in Premium but didn't give any reason even after I asked a couple times. Can anyone please guide if that is really the case or if they were just trying to avoid filing it in premium.? my case is at Nebraska and I see that current processing times for EB3 i140 is 5 months+ and after today's CO YouTube Live, I am overoptimistic that FAD for EB3 would most likely hit End of 2012 before this Fiscal and wanted to see that my EB3 i140 is approved well before then. Could anyone please give me some advice?
    I was in the same boat. Fragomen recommended not to do it as it can get denied. However, I confirmed with Fragomen that the underlying application is not impacted even if the premium processing request is denied. Also, there is a small possibility that USCIS may not return the PP fee if they deny the request. So if you are OK with the risk of losing that fee, ask your lawyer to submit the request. I am going to wait these next couple of bulletins to see how the dates move in relation to I-140 processing times. Once I am closer to my date, I will submit the PP request as well if needed. My I-140 was received on Nov 4...so it will be 6+ months in May.

  21. #2571
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    Folks -

    MY PD is May 17, 2011 and I applied for an EB3 downgrade last year. My applications' receipt date is Nov 4, 2020. I have not received the fingerprinting notice yet.

    My Indian passport expires in November this year. Can anyone share their suggestions for when I should apply for renewal? Right away or after a certain milestone in the GC process? Here are the things I was considering and will appreciate your thoughts on:

    1. When is a passport needed in the process: Is it required for biometrics or can a driver's license be used? What are the other stages when a passport is required?

    2. Any paperwork or changes to application/ notification to USCIS needed when a new passport arrives?

    3. How long does it take to renew the passport through the normal process (since this situation may not qualify for Tatkal) in SF or NY? Does the current passport have to be sent at the time of renewal?

  22. #2572
    Quote Originally Posted by SG2020 View Post
    Folks -

    MY PD is May 17, 2011 and I applied for an EB3 downgrade last year. My applications' receipt date is Nov 4, 2020. I have not received the fingerprinting notice yet.

    My Indian passport expires in November this year. Can anyone share their suggestions for when I should apply for renewal? Right away or after a certain milestone in the GC process? Here are the things I was considering and will appreciate your thoughts on:

    1. When is a passport needed in the process: Is it required for biometrics or can a driver's license be used? What are the other stages when a passport is required?

    2. Any paperwork or changes to application/ notification to USCIS needed when a new passport arrives?

    3. How long does it take to renew the passport through the normal process (since this situation may not qualify for Tatkal) in SF or NY? Does the current passport have to be sent at the time of renewal?
    SF took about 3 weeks back in Dec last year via normal process . Please renew the passport on Tatkal if you feel anxious , you need it for the GC especially if you are the Primary .

  23. #2573
    Quote Originally Posted by SG2020 View Post
    I was in the same boat. Fragomen recommended not to do it as it can get denied. However, I confirmed with Fragomen that the underlying application is not impacted even if the premium processing request is denied. Also, there is a small possibility that USCIS may not return the PP fee if they deny the request. So if you are OK with the risk of losing that fee, ask your lawyer to submit the request. I am going to wait these next couple of bulletins to see how the dates move in relation to I-140 processing times. Once I am closer to my date, I will submit the PP request as well if needed. My I-140 was received on Nov 4...so it will be 6+ months in May.
    My Friend applied for Premium I-140 2 months ago and got approved in 10 days for EB3-I. Companies don't want to pay the extra fees and Lawyers will parrot what their Clients tell them to . Tell your employer that you will bear the expense. In all my years, companies have not borne the premium expense unless you are a long term employee and your VP/SVP signs off on it . But the moment you tell them that you will pay the difference they seem to be OK. As far as I know only EB-I does not allow for premium atleast for the manager category . Pay the difference and get the I-140 done and sleep well for 6 months .

  24. #2574
    Quote Originally Posted by gs1968 View Post
    As Spec's post a few days ago stated the USCIS issued 147K GCs against an available limit of 156K for FY20. The current 262K is a 90% increase in annual numbers and is definitely a big jump. This would require a significant upgrade in infrastructure and manpower which at least so far we have not seen. Charlie O set an ambitious target for them to achieve and we have to see how they respond in the next 6 months
    Not quite sure how much USCIS manpower is taken exactly by all the family GC petitions; but if EB is getting all these spillover doesn't USCIS save all the time usually spent on family GCs in the fiscal year.

  25. #2575
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    Quote Originally Posted by xeqtr85 View Post
    Not quite sure how much USCIS manpower is taken exactly by all the family GC petitions; but if EB is getting all these spillover doesn't USCIS save all the time usually spent on family GCs in the fiscal year.
    The USCIS is involved in the first step of the FB process when a principal applicant (usually US Based) applies for I-130. After the I-130 is approved the process shifts to the DOS. Current I-130 processing times are between 11-15 months. This has remained fairly static over time and the overseas embassy closure and travel ban should not affect this. It does not appear like the USCIS stopped receiving/processing these applications during this period.

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