The song remains the same.. Nose to the grindstone..
The song remains the same.. Nose to the grindstone..
i am 5.5 months and still it is very disappointing ..i can feel ur pain ... hopefully u will be green soon ....
Originally Posted by pch053
All should be happy with NO Retro.. We will achieve at some point for sure.. Next year bulletins will give good movement early. Happy holidays and enjoy..
i am 5.5 months and still it is very disappointing ..i can feel ur pain ... hopefully u will be green soon ....
Now that the VB is out I'll get back to sulking. I'll get back to worrying about everything.
But thanks to all those who made some highly optimistic predictions. Atleast for a while, you had us dreaming.
comfort. it's so disappointing!
I can't believe this country:
people who have Phd/MS degrees have to wait for 5 or more years for GC.
people who seek asylum only need to wait for 1 year for GC
people who can win GC lottery obtain GC immediately
this is not a fair system and they are going to the wrong direction little by little.
donvar,
I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that EB3-I has received spillover. In fact it is highly unlikely, since clearly there are other EB2-IC cases that could have used the visas.
Apart from it not conforming to the law, the extra numbers can equally have been made available by higher than anticipated porting of cases with very early PDs.
That said, I will admit to being extremely surprised by the EB3-I movement in the last 2 months.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Qs. 1: If next year SOFAD is 15K or more then at what time will BTM happen. They need atleast 3-6 months to make application documentarily qualified. Or they will risk wasting visas!
Qs. 2: It was predicted we may get atleast 2K SOFAD. Are they planning to waste the visas this fiscal year.
CO will take the life out of everyone and then give them the GC so that they will not feel happy when they do receive the GC !!
Gosh...I am stuck with a PD of 4/18, are we gonna see any movement in future bulletins or are we stuck till April-May nex year...So Cruel....
Wow .... i step out for a chick-a-fill and DoS releases this!!!
Very disappointing but Props to Nishant for pointing out correctly the silver line behind this - No EB1 EB2ROW backlog next year!
Basically Apr 07 is SFM ... there shouldn't be retro. But in hindsight it seems they are clearing as much EB1 EB2ROW as possible. Please see 5-7 pages back I had pointed this to Teddy. But I hoped (against the data point obviously now) that it was a spurious trend. But it seems it is not.
Honestly this throws any talk of even a BTM into quite a spin. I don't see under what pretext DoS can allow a BTM to happen. And if they wait till May 2007 then whats going to happen is they will waste visas. So a bit perplexed. Probably we will establish better clarity in the next few days.
On the other hand EB3I movement tell you that porting is only 4K at best. The proof?
Sep 2010 Visa bulletin date for EB2I = Jan 2002
Sep 2011 Visa bulletin date for EB2I = Sep 2002
The difference in visas = 5K.
Less 2.8K allocation = 2.2K in EB2I porting
Assume 1.8K porting for rest of world including china
So as we have been consistently saying total porting is not more than 4K.
touche!
This has nothing to do with EB3 spillover. This has everything to do with EB1 andEB2ROW.
KLPD is very apt indeed. The funny thing is ... even girls used to say that without knowing what it was!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Very well said ! This year the fireworks came earlier, followed by emergency brakes and then complete silence.
16th april07 bhai (I forgot the screen name) better luck next time.
Personally, I was more disappointed with Aug VB than Sep VB.
It is disappointing to say the least.Just wanted to cheer up folks
1.Please be careful about your jobs and hold on to them (especially with the economic environment) untill next spillover season.
2.Let us hope the spillover season starts early ( April 2012).
3.Dont put much into the stock market untill it bottoms out completely.This way you reduce one stress factor.
4.People with Post Aug 2007 PD's might be better off accepting promotions and getting back in line....Since who knows what effects will predominate next year and ultimately it might be end of 2012 or early 2013 before they get their Gc's.
Personally I am convinced to take that risk (mine is Nov 2007 PD) and I have already wasted a lot of my opportunities waiting for the damn date to become current.
Q are you working in Charlotte downtown? If yes, lets meet sometime
I think we are stuck till next year...
This whole year data movement if we take was not good compared to 2010. and CO not giving no details in Aug & Sep bulletin really gives us no scope in understanding what USCIS is assuming. Any way GURU's who are waiting(leo, spec,nishant2000, soggadu.and otehr gurus)...dont loose your heart...will all this turmoils GC dream for everyone is becoming like hoping for something impossible to happen ..
and now........ the winner of ....... best prediction award for the month of September..........is ????????? (oh..oh... it has been cancelled due to non availability of VISA numbers)
Teddy brother, I feel your pain and admire your balance
next year for sure [hug]
SOFAD that includes the annual cap as well 15HK may not be much at all. Following is the rough demand till 01-AUG-2007 a) Preadjudicated Cases 8K b) Porting that will keep coming gradually over the year 6K c) PWMB - 4K.
So 15K SOFAD may just barely clear all backlog till 01-AUG-2007 but IMHO its a very conservative figure. Looks like Aug & Sep will be dedicated to clearing the EB2 ROW and EB1 backlogs which may make next year a little bit more comfortable.
Unfortunately for the next 6 months we may not see any movement at all it definitely hurts those who missed by a few days. Good luck to all, it’s back to the drawing board again now for next year.
Thanks for your kind words, I just hope its finally next year now, Iam optimistic about itit cannot be any later now.
Disgusting but no words or thoughts. Need to plan India trip some time. Getting irritated about this country first time.
any few cheers as DOW is up 429 thought i am not up by 10% which i lost yesterday.
Common guys... back to work, will try to understand more number crunching as we have lot of time to analyze.
I am not sure how its different from last year when we did not get many eb1 spill over.. could not corelated to last year.
One observation: Let's consider that when we say "they are wasting visas by not doing BTM at right moment", is incorrect. The visas can always be given to EB3 ROW. They did not go waste then. EB2 I/C, we, are not center of universe to DOS/USCIS/VO/CO/WH, no one cares specifically for us. To not be disappointed, we need to understand this. This is my opinion. I think it's not the right time to say this, as today everyone, including me, is disappointed. But I did want to make this thought of mine shared.
Teddy initial prediction came out true. Nice Job teddy. We need to keep focus on numbers not emotions. I know its very hard (:
Teddy's initial prediction:
================================================== ============
If we extrapolate the 33K SOFAD onto the table above then the expected PD movement will be around 15th Feb 2007. There maybe some buffer around this date so the range will be between 01-FEB-2007 and 01-APR-2007.
================================================== ==============
Last edited by neospeed; 08-09-2011 at 03:42 PM.
Some first thoughts.
Teddy, in particular, did try to warn about a small movement.
If we take the reports from mitbbs as valid, there were 19k visas left to cover all approvals in August/September (or alternatively the 19k didn't include the August movement for EB2-IC).
EB2-IC used up about 2.5k for movement in the August VB.
At the end of July, EB3 still appeared to need 5-6k to reach the 40k limit.
If we say EB1 and EB2-ROW each needed 2k per month, that is another 8k (in fact EB1 has been running slightly hotter than that).
That leaves 2.5k left for any movement in EB4/EB5 over 2 months or any acceleration in other Categories or for spillover. It would be an additional 2.5k if the 19k did not include the August use for EB2-IC.
It appears it was all too easy to use up the balance, leaving nothing for EB2-IC in September.
I don't see clearing EB1/EB2-ROW as a pre-requisite for no movement - it's more a case of not slowing it down.
Last edited by Spectator; 08-09-2011 at 03:46 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Nishant
Nice observation and yes that helps digest the pain better. I always beleive CO will find any way to justify any movement...forward ,backward,stuck and spillover into any visa category.It is totally left to the whim and fancy of CO/DOS.We just have to hope for better results next spillover season.
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