EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[harapatta]

After 11 long years, I am current, and reality still not sinking in. So guys what happens next ( I filled my I-485 in 2012).

[mitul75]

Happy for you my friend.

It is an arduous journey. Luckily it is going to come to an end thanks to COVID spillover as well as potential scrapping of country limits. I wish the biden immigration plan is adopted or Dems should just ram it through the senate just like they did with COVID bill. Enough of GOP blocking immigration for over 2 decades now.

I wish they could do that, but given that Biden's Immigration bill cannot be passed as a budget reconciliation process or vote-a-rama unlike the COVID bill, chances of filibuster by Senate Republicans is very high, in which case it will have zero chance to pass as is.

[mitul75]

April Visa Bulletin is out.

EB1I - Current
EB2I - May 1st, 2010
EB3I - Sept 1st, 2010

Happy to see the class of 2012 getting cleared.

Good news all around - this proves beyond doubt that there has been a welcome change in the way of looking at legal immigration.

[ak7419]

Did you try speaking to a live agent? My dates are current too, and I spoke to a live agent and insisted on speaking to a Level 2 officer. She created a service order for me and said that someone will call me back in the next 14 business days. So, keeping my hopes high!

I have been current since November but no updates since then. I opened an SR but unfortunately had a typo in A#. They closed the SR after 90 days saying that information does not match with what is on file. What a bummer. I then chatted with a T1 agent and requested that I be put on callback queue for T2. It has been 16 days since then but no call from T2 agent yet. I feel like they are overwhelmed...

[Justmyself]

Very good movement in the April VB. Especially now EB1 India is current and EB2I date is exactly the cut off date of 2012 (I mean most of them files in 2012), it is interesting to see how dates move forward. Any movement further is October 2020 filers for whom 485 processing might not be completed yet.
EB2I is catching up with EB3I pretty fast.

It looks like reverse porting and the vertical/horizontal SO are helping EB2 after all. By the end of the FY, I won?t be surprised if EB2 takes over EB3.

[Justmyself]

Any predictions on when FAD might reach April 2011 for EB3I?

[idliman]

Any predictions on when FAD might reach April 2011 for EB3I?

Here's the positive news for you. DOS set the DF dates for EB2I for 15MAY11. So DOS/CO expected the dates to be around that date at the end of the year (Sept 2021). After the dates were set, quite a few people have downported to EB3. Be positive and very optimistic. There is no real pending inventory after May 2010. So we need to wait for the data to show up.

[mitul75]

I have been current since November but no updates since then. I opened an SR but unfortunately had a typo in A#. They closed the SR after 90 days saying that information does not match with what is on file. What a bummer. I then chatted with a T1 agent and requested that I be put on callback queue for T2. It has been 16 days since then but no call from T2 agent yet. I feel like they are overwhelmed...

Yep - especially TSC, I guess with all new applications since October, COVID and the recent weather event. They are lagging behind NSC by at least 3 months, based on Trackitt data

[mr00us]

Here's the positive news for you. DOS set the DF dates for EB2I for 15MAY11. So DOS/CO expected the dates to be around that date at the end of the year (Sept 2021). After the dates were set, quite a few people have downported to EB3. Be positive and very optimistic. There is no real pending inventory after May 2010. So we need to wait for the data to show up.

Provided USICS does not waste visa numbers, I see decent movement for EB-2, especially since EB1 is current. If my calculations are correct, we should see EB2 in 2011 by the end of this FY. EB3 however should also follow along because of duplicate filings of 485. Basically averaging out in early to middle of 2011 depending on spillover from EB-1.

I will return to my posts at the end of FY to see how far off I was. :-)

[Djidondon]

Your question is hard to answer simply because USCIS stopped publishing Pending Inventory data. Moreover no one know how many GCs USCIS will approve this year. What's the use of spillover, if people before you do not get GCs? They will always be standing infront of you in the backlog queue.

I understand your concern with the golden opportunity and missing out on submitting AOS application. You are in Nov 2016 (EB2I), almost 2017 in EB2I. Even if you get similar spillover (FB to EB) I don't think your PD will be current next year. Also keep in mind that when the consulates start ramping up workload, they will take away 10 to 20% of the GCs from CP process. If I am in your shoes, I would jump to the new employer, get my PERM done ASAP. I have to warn you that as one of the few remaining dinosaurs from 2012 EAD still roaming around, we have a lot of baggage and mostly get predictions wrong.

Hopefully other users of this forum will be able to provide their input that you can consider to make a decision. Good Luck.

Thank you for your valuable feedback Idliman, I honestly don?t know how the Green Card process, final action dates and filling dates work. I was hoping whether my PD Nov 2016 might become current in EB3I in filling dates not the final action dates if a SO happens for FY2022 from FB to EB. I have no hope on the green card with current situations but I can live in US on AOS for few years if there is such opportunity if my PD becomes current in EB3I in filling dates. Do you see any slight chances for it to happen starting FY2022 ?

[idliman]

Did you try speaking to a live agent? My dates are current too, and I spoke to a live agent and insisted on speaking to a Level 2 officer. She created a service order for me and said that someone will call me back in the next 14 business days. So, keeping my hopes high!

See the post from ak7419 below.

I have been current since November but no updates since then. I opened an SR but unfortunately had a typo in A#. They closed the SR after 90 days saying that information does not match with what is on file. What a bummer. I then chatted with a T1 agent and requested that I be put on callback queue for T2. It has been 16 days since then but no call from T2 agent yet. I feel like they are overwhelmed...

I went through the Oct VB TSC thread in trackitt. It looks like many have done 2 SRs and 2 congressman or senator requests and still waiting. It may be that TSC is overwhelmed, understaffed, mismanged or a some combination of the three. I think it might take them some time to figure out a way to approve GCs. With new people added to the FA current queue, this will definitely bring more pressure on them. I just hope that they don't randomly pick applications and approve an Apr 2010 petition when some Jul 2009 folks are still waiting.

Retrogression is not possible. So we should get GCs in a few months.

[goracer]

After 11 long years, I am current, and reality still not sinking in. So guys what happens next ( I filled my I-485 in 2012).

Now the waiting game starts for rfe...

[vsivarama]

Thank you for your valuable feedback Idliman, I honestly don?t know how the Green Card process, final action dates and filling dates work. I was hoping whether my PD Nov 2016 might become current in EB3I in filling dates not the final action dates if a SO happens for FY2022 from FB to EB. I have no hope on the green card with current situations but I can live in US on AOS for few years if there is such opportunity if my PD becomes current in EB3I in filling dates. Do you see any slight chances for it to happen starting FY2022 ?

It is difficult to predict PD movements without the holy grail (i485 pending inventory). At this point it's also difficult to predict how much spillover we will get in FY2022. We are also not sure if all available visa numbers will be used up for this year. So it's like throwing a dart blindfolded. Does it hit the bulls eye? Maybe. This is something no expert would want to predict.

[Tandav]

April Visa Bulletin is out.

EB1I - Current
EB2I - May 1st, 2010
EB3I - Sept 1st, 2010

Happy to see the class of 2012 getting cleared.

I am current now and I am not excited at all. Even if it is not thru EB, i will be getting my gc thru my kids in another 2 years. The happiest moment was when SM was stripped out of his position as immigration advisor. I am happy that my kids voted for JB. This is the kind of changes that i was hoping to see on legal immigration.
The gas price was 96 cents when I came to this country.

[vrk1791]

Hello Idliman and Gurus,

Here is my situation and need your valuable inputs....

Category: EB2 (India)
Priority Date: Jan-2010
I485 Filed Date: March 2012

I have changed my job to (Employer B) after 180 days of I485 filing and started working on EAD (filed AC21), after few months my previous employer (Original Petitioner: Employer A) revoked I140 sine I was not working with them, unfortunately USCIS erroneously denied my I485 even though I submitted AC21 portability(from Employer B). I applied MTR/Federal court appeal then got re-opened I485 in around 5 weeks and started working again with Employer B (not maintained H1B, only through EAD).

I am still working with same Employer B and renewed EAD/AP around 4 times with out any issues and travelled India few times with AP (No issues so far) .

As you aware now my priority date became current in March 2021 bulletin and expecting RFE since medicals expired and 485J. As I am not maintaining H1B would you see any issues with my I485 approvals (just checking because I had bad experience earlier)?

Hypothetical situation: If 485 gets denied whatever the reason might be, can I go back to original portioner or current employer to file H1B with cap exempt category ?

These two above questions more on preparation for any eventuality as I am at finish line (I485 approval) and don't have any fall back option (no H1B).

I really appreciate your inputs.....

[vsivarama]

The new director Alexander looks like he can make positive directions for USCIS and get the institute back as a Service instead of enforcement.

100% agree with you on this. I have not seen any official word on cancelling interviews though it seems like 485 interviews are not taking place anymore. The public charge rule has been blocked which could further shorten the processing times of i1485. The next and the most important milestone will be to see approvals rolling in for people who applied for AOS in October else any date movement in the bulletin will be moot. Hoping to see some progress on that end soon.

[bangaloreboy]

Congratulations to all 2012 folks who got current today! Feels like I am reliving 2012 all over again, but this time its real! I missed out 2012 by 2 months and dont know what 2021 will turn out to be for those who missed the boat in 2012. I honestly dont know how many who got current this year will see GCs but you should rejoice and celebrate this big day!

[qesehmk]

For what it is worth I do not think EB23-IC will retrogress ever. So relax and let this sink in. Congratulations to all that are current.

[incredible]

The bulletin release in the 2nd week is a welcome change. Eb2 has moved 3 and half months while Eb3 has done 2 months.
For EB2 there was around 4000 total applicants from Jan 15th to May 1st which DOS appear confident to process next month. USCIS needs to ensure they can service those numbers. The new director Alexander looks like he can make positive directions for USCIS and get the institute back as a Service instead of enforcement.

Very well said. congratulations to all and things are looking rosy again after a long time. Hoping all of 2012 filers will be greened soon.

[ak7419]

My PD is Sep 2009 and I am not sure which service center is processing my case. I have been current since November of last year but I have not seen any movement in my case. I am noticing that more and more folks like me are seeing no movement in their cases. What is the course of action for us? Any suggestions?

[bangaloreboy]

Not to side rail the festivities, but infact add to it, here is some relief for those derivatives that unfortunately got rejected in Oct 2020, for leaving boxes 3.a. and 9 blank in Part 2 of the I-485 application
https://www.murthy.com/2021/03/10/us...-applications/
The difference between administrations...I am just saying...

[Wizoz2]

My PD is Sep 2009 and I am not sure which service center is processing my case. I have been current since November of last year but I have not seen any movement in my case. I am noticing that more and more folks like me are seeing no movement in their cases. What is the course of action for us? Any suggestions?

Have you considered submitting a service request to nudge them into maybe looking at your case? I believe TSC is sending 0 to very few RFEs at the moment based on the statistics on trackitt.com. Your case seems to be well justified for a service request, since you are outside of the mandatory 90 day timeline of waiting for an RFE.

[skpanda]

Friends.. apologies for being selfish.. Please see my question below. I am posting here as this thread gets the most traffic.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post70766

Thanks in advance!

[vsivarama]

Friends.. apologies for being selfish.. Please see my question below. I am posting here as this thread gets the most traffic.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post70766

Thanks in advance!

I am not sure of the answer to this. You may want to check with an expert or a lawyer what happens if your GC is approved mid travel? I have heard you can travel back with an AP no issues. But I am not sure if you can travel back on a visa. I hoping the answer is yes, but it's better to be sure.

[ak7419]

Have you considered submitting a service request to nudge them into maybe looking at your case? I believe TSC is sending 0 to very few RFEs at the moment based on the statistics on trackitt.com. Your case seems to be well justified for a service request, since you are outside of the mandatory 90 day timeline of waiting for an RFE.

I opened a service request a couple of months ago but no update so far.