EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[Transformer]

I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
Not from civil engineering to IT job

I believe what he said was it has to be same or similar job for 485J not for porting priority date from one employer to other. He was right in that aspect.

[calking1975]

Most of the i485 denial cases are because the underlying i-140 was denied. There are very few i485 denials after i140 is approved and usually the reasons have to be pretty egregious like fraud or felony. So it's pretty safe to switch over to EAD. Your chances of getting GC are pretty good this FY. But you need not be in a hurry, since the petition for your spouse and kid were filed a couple of months later. Their applications are potentially running behind your application.

Thank you @vsivarama and @incredible for your suggestions, it helps a lot.

[inspired_p]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
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EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
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Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
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In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
* Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
* Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
* Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...<br /> <br />

We can guarantee visas will be wasted.. how many is the question. And if visa wastage is taken into account, EB3 will be more favorable I would guess and the dates would move forward more rapidly but applications will be processed randomly ( later PDs getting greened)

[AceMan]

how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.

I looked up the form and see the following language inside.

The original ETA form has SOC Code 15-1051. This code is no longer in use, and the correct code is 15-1121

[3nov10]

This absolutely does not make sense and is wrong IMHO.
Every job is evaluated on its own merit, and porting of priority date does not have anything to do with job descriptions.

The Job matching is required only during I-485J as the new employer is not going through the PERM and I-140 again for the job but basically stating that old perm and I-140 should be still valid.

That's what I understood. But discussions here confused me a bit.

In my case, I was not able to file I-485 in Oct, because the perm from my new employer was not approved.

Even after waiting for more than a quarter of my life. I decided not to go back to old employer because I left that place for right reasons (career growth). I am not sure if I made the correct decision. If I had gone back, by now, I could have atleast be in TriShanku Swarga .

I will have to make another decision on EB2 or EB3 (hopefully soon.) I want to do that one right.

[inspired_p]

That's what I understood. But discussions here confused me a bit.

In my case, I was not able to file I-485 in Oct, because the perm from my new employer was not approved.

Even after waiting for more than a quarter of my life. I decided not to go back to old employer because I left that place for right reasons (career growth). I am not sure if I made the correct decision. If I had gone back, by now, I could have atleast be in TriShanku Swarga .

I will have to make another decision on EB2 or EB3 (hopefully soon.) I want to do that one right.

I get you, I was exactly in the same position last oct 2020, but lady luck smiled on me , my PERM for the new employment got approved in Sept 2020 , and I was able to apply I-140 and I-485 concurrently in Oct 2020.I also had an option to file in EB2 or EB3 as PERM job description and my qualifications support an EB2 application, and For what's it worth, I have opted for EB3 . We will soon know if my decision made sense, as I could have got the Trishangu status in either category.
We can only hope for the best
All the best and hope you make the correct decision. Our PDs are only few days apart actually.

[GCkaLADDU]

Does anyone know how USCIS processes EAD/AP cases filed separately after i-485 filing?

Filed my AOS application in early November last year and EAD/AP around end of Jan after getting the AOS receipt notice. Got the EAD/AP application receipts last week (starting with IOE and NBC as processing location). I got my Biometrics appointment scheduled in next couple of weeks and the appointment letter only shows i-485.

Little fuzzy on how they'll apply biometrics for EAD/AP (if at all required). Not sure if I am looking at any additional delays in EAD/AP approvals

[3nov10]

I get you, I was exactly in the same position last oct 2020, but lady luck smiled on me , my PERM for the new employment got approved in Sept 2020 , and I was able to apply I-140 and I-485 concurrently in Oct 2020.I also had an option to file in EB2 or EB3 as PERM job description and my qualifications support an EB2 application, and For what's it worth, I have opted for EB3 . We will soon know if my decision made sense, as I could have got the Trishangu status in either category.
We can only hope for the best
All the best and hope you make the correct decision. Our PDs are only few days apart actually.

Congratulations on getting EAD. Hopefully we will be celebrating getting a better card soon .

[drop2ocean]

PD 6/15/2010 EB3(I)
I485 filed on Oct 29th 2020.

would it be too optimistic to expect a GC this year ?

[gcracer]

PD 6/15/2010 EB3(I)
I485 filed on Oct 29th 2020.

would it be too optimistic to expect a GC this year ?

Your date is current. You should get it in next 2-3 months.

[mesimba]

Folks,

I have been a silent member on this forum...and have benefitted immensely from this forum and all the expert advice from the experts here... Q, AceMan, Idliman just to name a few.

My journey in this country started almost 17 years back, with a couple of times on the verge of leaving everything behind and going back to my home country.

I had my share of very highs getting multiple promotions but then to lose it all due to the company shutting shop and coming back to square one. Some personal tragedies/trials/ tribulations and opportunities by passed, if I would have had the GC the life trajectory could have been very different.

But no complains... I am extremely happy that this is the way it had to happen. In the process I learnt a lot not just about this process but more so about my own self.

Today we got the card approval for myself and spouse.

Looking for a new life post GC and ability to work and innovate fearlessly while contributing to this country and my own growth as an individual.

My advise to those still stuck, GC is just one aspect of life focus on many many other things... work on your passions and whatever you can do outside of your job. Give more time to family and your own passions.

Good luck to all... may everyone get greened soon!!!

My Timeline:
2004: H1B
PD: Dec 2009: EB2I
I-485 filed in 2012
RFE: Aug 2018, Jan 2021
Card Production Ordered: March 10, 2021

[Moveon]

PD 6/15/2010 EB3(I)
I485 filed on Oct 29th 2020.

would it be too optimistic to expect a GC this year ?

You should get it this fiscal . The USCIS will start to issue GCs as the current administration wants to show that they can deliver .
Best of luck

[idliman]

Does anyone know how USCIS processes EAD/AP cases filed separately after i-485 filing?

Filed my AOS application in early November last year and EAD/AP around end of Jan after getting the AOS receipt notice. Got the EAD/AP application receipts last week (starting with IOE and NBC as processing location). I got my Biometrics appointment scheduled in next couple of weeks and the appointment letter only shows i-485.

Little fuzzy on how they'll apply biometrics for EAD/AP (if at all required). Not sure if I am looking at any additional delays in EAD/AP approvals

If you had applied for I485 and I765 concurretly, the ASC Appointment Notice should state Case type as "I485 I765". As you have applied for EAD/AP separately, maybe by the time the ASC notice was generated the system did not find I765. Just guessing. For I765 based on "Pending I485 / AOS", a biometric / fingerprinting is mandatory first time. They do it to clear your FBI and agencies background. Recently they have started using existing fingerprints and such (during pandemic) and things are very muddy. I cannot find clear expalanation from USCIS when a new fingerprinting is mandatory vs reuse.

For EAD/AP to be approved, all they need is the copy of your I485 receipt notice. Once you show that and prove your identity AOS based EAD/AP will be approved without any issues.

Reg IOE Receipt notice: As long as you are not in TSC, consider yourself lucky. Gone are the days of wait for 2 weeks after PD is current to get GC or get EAD/AP in 60 to 75 days. Just as an example even people from Oct 2020 VB are still waiting for their GCs or RFEs. The USCIS system right now is a mess. Waiting for 3 months to just get a receipt notice is unbelievable.

[idliman]

Folks,
Today we got the card approval for myself and spouse.

My Timeline:
2004: H1B
PD: Dec 2009: EB2I
I-485 filed in 2012
RFE: Aug 2018, Jan 2021
Card Production Ordered: March 10, 2021

Congratulations. Are you in TSC or NSC ?

[mesimba]

Congratulations. Are you in TSC or NSC ?

Thanks NSC

[Moveon]

Folks,

I have been a silent member on this forum...and have benefitted immensely from this forum and all the expert advice from the experts here... Q, AceMan, Idliman just to name a few.

My journey in this country started almost 17 years back, with a couple of times on the verge of leaving everything behind and going back to my home country.

I had my share of very highs getting multiple promotions but then to lose it all due to the company shutting shop and coming back to square one. Some personal tragedies/trials/ tribulations and opportunities by passed, if I would have had the GC the life trajectory could have been very different.

But no complains... I am extremely happy that this is the way it had to happen. In the process I learnt a lot not just about this process but more so about my own self.

Today we got the card approval for myself and spouse.

Looking for a new life post GC and ability to work and innovate fearlessly while contributing to this country and my own growth as an individual.

My advise to those still stuck, GC is just one aspect of life focus on many many other things... work on your passions and whatever you can do outside of your job. Give more time to family and your own passions.

Good luck to all... may everyone get greened soon!!!

My Timeline:
2004: H1B
PD: Dec 2009: EB2I
I-485 filed in 2012
RFE: Aug 2018, Jan 2021
Card Production Ordered: March 10, 2021

Hi Mesimba,
Congrats on Getting greened and agree that we need to enjoy the time with our family . I have the same history as yours (I am in NSC ) and responded to the RFE in Jan. Currently my status says that the response to RFE was received in Jan.
In your case what were the state transitions and when did it change from "RFE received" and what was the next state?

[android09]

What is NSC ? My biometrics, I-485, I-131 and I-765 all say National Benefits Center.

[mesimba]

Hi Mesimba,
Congrats on Getting greened and agree that we need to enjoy the time with our family . I have the same history as yours (I am in NSC ) and responded to the RFE in Jan. Currently my status says that the response to RFE was received in Jan.
In your case what were the state transitions and when did it change from "RFE received" and what was the next state?

After RFE received it directly transitioned to ..."New Card is Being Produced"

[GCkaLADDU]

Thanks Idliman!

[mesimba]

What is NSC ? My biometrics, I-485, I-131 and I-765 all say National Benefits Center.

NSC = Nebraska Service Center

[Moveon]

Thanks Mesiba,
I had my biometrics done in 2012 . I suppose you had no biometrics after that too? I am glad that they have gotten to Dec 2009 as this could indicate good movement in the next bulletin and hopefully through the fiscal.

[mesimba]

Thanks Mesiba,
I had my biometrics done in 2012 . I suppose you had no biometrics after that too? I am glad that they have gotten to Dec 2009 as this could indicate good movement in the next bulletin and hopefully through the fiscal.

Yes only did biometrics one time in 2012, RFEs in 2018 and Jan 2021 for Medicals, 485J , G325A

[drop2ocean]

Thanks Moveon

[racharox]

Just a question - If 485J is submitted once along with initial 485 submission, will there be a need to resubmit 485J again at later point?

[aGCHopefull]

My Timeline:
2004: H1B
PD: Dec 2009: EB2I
I-485 filed in 2012
RFE: Aug 2018, Jan 2021
Card Production Ordered: March 10, 2021

Congratulations!!