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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #2301
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...
    The predictions are not for the upcoming month but by the end of the FY (Sep 2021).

  2. #2302
    Quote Originally Posted by mr00us View Post
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
    EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
    * Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
    * Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
    * Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf
    34K i140 downgraded from Eb2-EB3(includes 2011/2012/2013/2014) from Oct-Dec 2020. In your calculation downgrades comes to 34k or less...

  3. #2303
    If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
    You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.

  4. #2304
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I View Post
    If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
    You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.
    RN Law are one of the thugs in the litigation arena, I would not trust them to sue USCIS in good faith of the EB immigrants. Even if they do, it won't get them anything as USCIS can always use COVID as a reason to thwart the litigation.
    Also, keep in mind the Siskind litigation back in 2015, it got nowhere.

  5. #2305
    Quote Originally Posted by LeoAugust View Post
    34K i140 downgraded from Eb2-EB3(includes 2011/2012/2013/2014) from Oct-Dec 2020. In your calculation downgrades comes to 34k or less...
    Actually I have way too much than 34K for 2009-2014. If it makes any sense, anything down-ported after 2011 won't make much difference for FY2021, which is why I have split the down-port for 2011 in 3 sections (20, 25 and 30%). And these are just guesses. If you have actual data of down-porting by the year, please let me know and I can finetune my calculations.

    As such these are things to make me feel better. At the end of the day, USCIS may waste a lot of these numbers and we will be held holding the bag anyways. :-)

  6. #2306
    Hmm. Sisk is more about FB and DV. I think RandN do good job when it comes to EB , he does YouTubeing multiple times in a week to keep us updated.

  7. #2307
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    How to predict spillover ( EB3i category ) for FY2022

    Hi Gurus

    Could anyone of you please direct me to the rabbit hole on how to predict spillovers for EB category ( EB3i or EB2i ) for fy2022

  8. #2308
    Quote Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I View Post
    If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
    You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.
    USCIS not issuing EAD is just a sign that they like to just take our money and not give timely service in return. They should have been named US Citizenship and Immigration Blackhole.
    GC Approved 7/29/2021

  9. #2309
    Quote Originally Posted by mr00us View Post
    Actually I have way too much than 34K for 2009-2014. If it makes any sense, anything down-ported after 2011 won't make much difference for FY2021, which is why I have split the down-port for 2011 in 3 sections (20, 25 and 30%). And these are just guesses. If you have actual data of down-porting by the year, please let me know and I can finetune my calculations.

    As such these are things to make me feel better. At the end of the day, USCIS may waste a lot of these numbers and we will be held holding the bag anyways. :-)
    Year wise we don't have. But total downgrade we were tracking from the feed. And it comes around 34K.

  10. #2310
    Hi Gurus, One query... For Bio reuse for 765, will the FP be taken later during EAD renewal or when the primary becomes current, they will taken the final FP for 485?
    Thanks

  11. #2311
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeoAugust View Post
    Hi Gurus, One query... For Bio reuse for 765, will the FP be taken later during EAD renewal or when the primary becomes current, they will taken the final FP for 485?
    Thanks
    USCIS assumes finger print validity to be 15 months for any background checks (https://www.uscis.gov/adoption/suita...kground-checks). I did not have to redo fingerprints during EAD extension. But i dont have much data on this, so there may be a chance USCIS could request a fingerprint a second time for EAD extensions, but i have not seen this happen in the limited data i have for this.

  12. #2312
    Yoda
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    The public charge rule has been stopped by a Chicago judge. Hope it stays that way. The i944 forms filed by us are now useless. Technically this is should speed up the processing for USCIS while adjudicating i485. Hope the interviews remain sidelined as well.

  13. #2313
    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    USCIS assumes finger print validity to be 15 months for any background checks (https://www.uscis.gov/adoption/suita...kground-checks). I did not have to redo fingerprints during EAD extension. But i dont have much data on this, so there may be a chance USCIS could request a fingerprint a second time for EAD extensions, but i have not seen this happen in the limited data i have for this.
    Thanks. In case of my friends who have EAD, they never go for FP for their EAD extension. But some of them when current going for FP for 485. That's the understanding I am getting and for 765, I dont this FP is required. when they are reusing FP it seems for EAD/AP it is not required.

  14. #2314
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    Need advice

    Hi experts,
    Need your advice, I am following this website for a long time.
    Here is my situation.
    My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2-I), I survived few layoffs and changed 3 employers in last 13 years, still no end to GC journey.
    We filed I-485, EAD/AP on 10/20/2020, my I-1485 application is accepted with FP fee received date 11/20/2020.
    My spouse and kid's applications rejected, due to missing information, refiled for family on 12/22/2020.
    My employer lost contract with client, they have 7 months for transition till, (till Sept'2021).
    My current H1B is expiring in Dec'21.
    I still didn't get EAD, no finger print appointment yet, hoping to get 2-3 months.
    My client is fine with me, so my options are
    1. Continue with current employer till Sept, hopefully I get EAD mean time, so I can change employer using EAD (AC21), in this case I may not have H1b.
    2. Change to other employer/vendor now with H1b transfer.

    What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
    What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

    I know so many questions, appreciate your suggestions.

    Thanks.

  15. #2315
    My wife has lost H4 EAD. Is there a way she can accept new employment while waiting for a replacement ? I hear it could take 4-8 months for the new one to come in.

    We have applied for 1485 based EAD in Oct 2020 as well. Hoping that would come along soon.

  16. #2316
    Quote Originally Posted by calking1975 View Post
    Hi experts,
    Need your advice, I am following this website for a long time.
    Here is my situation.
    My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2-I), I survived few layoffs and changed 3 employers in last 13 years, still no end to GC journey.
    We filed I-485, EAD/AP on 10/20/2020, my I-1485 application is accepted with FP fee received date 11/20/2020.
    My spouse and kid's applications rejected, due to missing information, refiled for family on 12/22/2020.
    My employer lost contract with client, they have 7 months for transition till, (till Sept'2021).
    My current H1B is expiring in Dec'21.
    I still didn't get EAD, no finger print appointment yet, hoping to get 2-3 months.
    My client is fine with me, so my options are
    1. Continue with current employer till Sept, hopefully I get EAD mean time, so I can change employer using EAD (AC21), in this case I may not have H1b.
    2. Change to other employer/vendor now with H1b transfer.

    What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
    What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

    I know so many questions, appreciate your suggestions.

    Thanks.
    The chances in-general of 485 denial are low as long as all the general things are in order. It is the same which would deny primary H1 itself. That being said, your PD is not yet current for FAD. You may need to give it at-least 3 months or so of it being current to get greened. It may be possible that you may get greened by September, but also it may go to next year (Oct onwards). The one silver lining probably could be once it becomes current, it could stay current for long time (with spill overs etc.), so it may be greened any time after that. The first hope for you is to get the EAD. But you should not wait for it and initiate H1b with your employer and can discuss with them that you will join them after approval of H1b. Itself may take few months and you can continue to work with your company during that time and at the same time hoping for EAD. Both 1 and 2 can be in parallel for you. Neither has to be preferred than the other at least for the time being. Depending on which one comes first, you can take a call on that later. Other experts may weigh in here. Good luck.

  17. #2317
    Quote Originally Posted by incredible View Post
    The chances in-general of 485 denial are low as long as all the general things are in order. It is the same which would deny primary H1 itself. That being said, your PD is not yet current for FAD. You may need to give it at-least 3 months or so of it being current to get greened. It may be possible that you may get greened by September, but also it may go to next year (Oct onwards). The one silver lining probably could be once it becomes current, it could stay current for long time (with spill overs etc.), so it may be greened any time after that. The first hope for you is to get the EAD. But you should not wait for it and initiate H1b with your employer and can discuss with them that you will join them after approval of H1b. Itself may take few months and you can continue to work with your company during that time and at the same time hoping for EAD. Both 1 and 2 can be in parallel for you. Neither has to be preferred than the other at least for the time being. Depending on which one comes first, you can take a call on that later. Other experts may weigh in here. Good luck.
    Just to clarify, when it was mentioned about #1 and #2 being parallel. You can ask your client to file for H1B without changing right away and inform that you will join them when either of the things happens (either EAD arrival and/or H1 approval). A

  18. #2318
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    Hi guys received PWD after 6months, my new employer is doing recruitment now, for filing perm next month. SOC CODE i have in 2011 no longer exists, what precautions do i need to take to take a SOC which is similar to old SOC code and job duties and designation so that i will not face problems for 485 Supplement J later on.if i make sure job duties in 2011 soc code are inline in my recruitment is thast good enough
    Last edited by H1b2006; 03-10-2021 at 08:45 AM.

  19. #2319
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    Hi guys received PWD after 6months, my new employer is doing recruitment now, for filing perm next month. SOC CODE i have in 2011 no longer exists, what precautions do i need to take to take a SOC which is similar to old SOC code and job duties and designation so that i will not face problems for 485 Supplement J later on.if i make sure job duties in 2011 soc code are inline in my recruitment is thast good enough
    I had my SOC Code 15-1132 used before and when I submitted 485 J in October, the number was 1133. I did not ask the attorney yet, but based on past information, I see no issues.
    PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
    I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
    I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21

  20. #2320
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    how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

    are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.

  21. #2321
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I had my SOC Code 15-1132 used before and when I submitted 485 J in October, the number was 1133. I did not ask the attorney yet, but based on past information, I see no issues.
    Ace, my new employer also applied a new perm for me (July 2020 - not approved yet).
    I always thought this is a new perm for a new job. Why does it need to be in-line with the old SOC code. Does it have implications on porting the date when we apply I-140?

  22. #2322
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by calking1975 View Post
    What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
    What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

    Thanks.
    Most of the i485 denial cases are because the underlying i-140 was denied. There are very few i485 denials after i140 is approved and usually the reasons have to be pretty egregious like fraud or felony. So it's pretty safe to switch over to EAD. Your chances of getting GC are pretty good this FY. But you need not be in a hurry, since the petition for your spouse and kid were filed a couple of months later. Their applications are potentially running behind your application.

  23. #2323
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

    are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.
    I think these things are based on experience of previous filings. Asking for a 100% confidence in forum is not right. Please go through the details under the relevant labor codes at bls.gov and make your own judgement. Here are some details

    https://www.bls.gov/oes/2017/may/oes151132.htm
    https://www.bls.gov/oes/2017/may/oes151133.htm


    The way I did it in the past is suggested this to my attorney and then asked for guidance and went ahead and filed for Supplement J and it was approved.

  24. #2324
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3nov10 View Post
    Ace, my new employer also applied a new perm for me (July 2020 - not approved yet).
    I always thought this is a new perm for a new job. Why does it need to be in-line with the old SOC code. Does it have implications on porting the date when we apply I-140?
    I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
    Not from civil engineering to IT job

  25. #2325
    Quote Originally Posted by H1b2006 View Post
    I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
    Not from civil engineering to IT job
    This absolutely does not make sense and is wrong IMHO.
    Every job is evaluated on its own merit, and porting of priority date does not have anything to do with job descriptions.

    The Job matching is required only during I-485J as the new employer is not going through the PERM and I-140 again for the job but basically stating that old perm and I-140 should be still valid.
    PD EB3-I 10-28-2010; RD 10-23-2020 LPR 08-26-2021

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