EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[march272010]

EB2 only Nebraska Service center, 485 J approved in 2018. Interesting is few of my friends in TSC with PD sep / oct 2009 they not even getting RFE

[vsivarama]

Any predictions on future movements for EB3I? It does look like EB2I might have a good year. With EB1 almost current and lot of EB3 downgrades past May 2010, the future looks good for EB2I. Is EB3I expected to reach May 2011 this FY? Any thoughts?

EB3I should move to Sep-Oct 2011 (provided no numbers are wasted). Most of the downgrades will kick in after May 2011. People before May 2011 are better off staying in EB2 as downgrade will have an extra step of applying i140 and getting it approved, which will take a few months. Plus when you are revisiting your case there is always a slight risk involved. For people beyond May 2011 it may be worth the risk but for others not sure if it's worth it especially when you will be getting Horizontal + Vertical spillover this year.

[Zenzone]

My prediction - This year I feel that EB3I will always be ahead of EB2I atleast by 6 months. Next year onwards.. downgrades will catch up and they should go hand in hand.

Anybody with PD >= May 2010 should consider downgrading.
Anybody with PD >= Jan 2011 should seriously think of downgrading. If not, there is a chance of GC in hand moved by years.

I think the dates will move in tandem starting the last quarter. There is enough downgrade demand and dual filed I-140s from ppl. who upgraded to EB2 from EB3 early on (if I'm not wrong).

[idliman]

Congratulations to everyone who became FA current in this bulletin. To me this looks like the movement for 5.2K GC quota destined for each country. Horizontal or Vertical spillover that ROW does not use has not been applied yet. Hopefully that spillover will happen in May timeframe or earlier. I wish for the JB admin to move dates steadily instead of making sudden jumps in the later half. That will increase the chances of more GCs being approved.

Remember the discussions we had in Oct timeframe (before elections) where people were expressing their opinion's about either a DT or JB win. I am pretty sure that had DT won, the State Department would have dragged their feet on VB movement till June/July timeframe and finally said USCIS does not have capacity to issue GCs. Whether you have PD in 2010 or 2015, you want as many GCs to be issued as possible this year so that there are less people in front of you in the queue.

[Zenzone]

Congratulations to everyone who became FA current in this bulletin. To me this looks like the movement for 5.2K GC quota destined for each country. Horizontal or Vertical spillover that ROW does not use has not been applied yet. Hopefully that spillover will happen in May timeframe or earlier. I wish for the JB admin to move dates steadily instead of making sudden jumps in the later half. That will increase the chances of more GCs being approved.

Remember the discussions we had in Oct timeframe (before elections) where people were expressing their opinion's about either a DT or JB win. I am pretty sure that had DT won, the State Department would have dragged their feet on VB movement till June/July timeframe and finally said USCIS does not have capacity to issue GCs. Whether you have PD in 2010 or 2015, you want as many GCs to be issued as possible this year so that there are less people in front of you in the queue.

Idli, I feel that this movement is for more than 5.2K per country. Especially with EB2 it feels that way as I would imagine the Q4 of 2009 folks + dependents in the backlog will be more than 5K based on my rough approximation.

[idliman]

Idli, I feel that this movement is for more than 5.2K per country. Especially with EB2 it feels that way as I would imagine the Q4 of 2009 folks + dependents in the backlog will be more than 5K based on my rough approximation.

You are right. When I did calculation based on Pending Inventory, I think 5.2K came to Dec. So was hoping that maybe USCIS considered some down porting to EB3 to end up at 15JAN10 (giving the benefit of doubt to forward movement).

[qesehmk]

Guys - please take a look at this thread and help our new member verify my answer or correct it. It's a question of his daughter's health.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...s-Impact-on-GC

[Transformer]

I have this lingering question for a long time. Applied for AOS for me and wife in Oct 2020 with EB2-EB3 downgrade and PD is May 2011. Attorney didn't advice to apply AOS for my kid (16 years old) with the fear that if FAD doesn't move and kid ages out it may be a problem to convert to F1 in the future. Wife is working on H4 EAD expiring end of the year. With H4 EAD taking forever to renew, if she uses GC EAD and I continue on H1 (no option for me as child is on H4) and in the future if

EB2 May 2011 becomes current, what are my options?
How can I file my Child's AOS in EB2 while I am on EB3?
Should we all have to file AOS again in EB2? (I don't think my wife can file another AOS without maintaining non immigrant status).
Can me and my child can apply in EB2 and my wife can continue on EB3? or all have to be in same category?

Appreciate any advice on this.

[idliman]

I have this lingering question for a long time. Applied for AOS for me and wife in Oct 2020 with EB2-EB3 downgrade and PD is May 2011. Attorney didn't advice to apply AOS for my kid (16 years old) with the fear that if FAD doesn't move and kid ages out it may be a problem to convert to F1 in the future. Wife is working on H4 EAD expiring end of the year. With H4 EAD taking forever to renew, if she uses GC EAD and I continue on H1 (no option for me as child is on H4) and in the future if

EB2 May 2011 becomes current, what are my options?
How can I file my Child's AOS in EB2 while I am on EB3?
Should we all have to file AOS again in EB2? (I don't think my wife can file another AOS without maintaining non immigrant status).
Can me and my child can apply in EB2 and my wife can continue on EB3? or all have to be in same category?

Appreciate any advice on this.

Reg EB2 to EB3 downgrade: Did your attorney file a new I-140 separately for EB3 or just amended existing I-140 to EB3. If you have two separate I-140's then you are eligible in both queues. Your kid is 16. Assuming that he/she starts college at 18, you should have enough time to get FA dates current and stop the age-out. I don't see any problem with filing "AOS" for your kid. He/she will get a SSN first. Just work to make sure that you have both EB2 and EB3 routes as your kid is facing a age-our scenario.

The AOS dependents status is tied to primary status. If the primary is on EB2, the dependent's are on EB2. Otherwise they are on EB3. It is impossible for the primary to be in EB3 and dependent to be on EB2. Depending on which "FA" date becomes current, you will have to move your existing I485 application to that queue. You may want to read about which queue is better for your PD. But, I would prepare for both the queues and do what is necessary to make myself eligible for both at moment's notice.

No problem with your wife's employment. She can continue to work on H4 EAD till she gets GC / AOS based EAD/AP. Once you have GC EAD in hand your wife will switch to "AOS Pending Status". I had listed 4 advantages of GC EAD in an earlier post. An integral part of staying in EAD status OR maintaining an unexpired EAD/AP is filing for timely renewal. Browse our EAD forum to prepare for that.

AOS or I485 application is filed only once. You can always "change underlying basis" a.k.a. "interfiling". Attorneys don't file more than one I485 as it can cause unintended consequences. It is like you having two SSN's. One A# is given per alien.

Immigrant and Non-Immigrant visas are different. H1/ L1 and their derivatives H2/L2 are non-immigrant visas. They allow you to enter USA and do your job. If you meet some conditions, then you can get an EAD to work on H2/L2. GC is immigrant visa. Once you apply for I485 a.k.a. Adjustment of Status (AOS), you automatically have a backup status called "AOS Pending". You need to meet 180 day requirement to be eligible for AC21. Under "AOS Pending", you can work if you have EAD and travel when you have AP.

You are in the right place. Just keep reading more and more posts and you will be an immigration expert in no time. Good Luck.

[mr00us]

While it is surprising that the dates moved substantially, we can find some logic in these actions. They have not moved the filing dates but are aggressive about FAD which means, they do not want to waste visa numbers and are not waiting to see what spillover will be used by ROW. Initially I thought that they will wait till last quarter but they must have some clarity of usage pattern for ROW and EB1 so the spillover is being used. While no one can predict what USCIS is going to do, I strongly believe that the FAD will move in similar pace till Sep visa bulleting and maybe beyond when Filing dates will be pushed forward as well.

They may also be preparing for immigration bill and if that passes, millions of applications will need to be processed. If they divert resources there, we may lose visas on EB side because hiring more staff and training will take time if immi bill happens.

[AceMan]

My prediction - This year I feel that EB3I will always be ahead of EB2I atleast by 6 months. Next year onwards.. downgrades will catch up and they should go hand in hand.

Anybody with PD >= May 2010 should consider downgrading.

What is the rationale behind this statement? I would call it irrational and misleading at this time for the following reasons.

1. EB1 is getting current. The vertical spill over gets applied to EB2 in the 3rd quarter.
2. EB2 already moved more than 3 months for this bulletin which is the last bulletin of 2nd quarter. It is expected to move more in the coming 2-3 bulletins.
3. What happened to the people who downgraded in 2018? Did they get greened faster? There is no detailed information about people getting greened faster in EB3 compared to EB2 even after downgrade.
4. Without an approved 140, CPSA will not kick in even if you interfile based on final dates.

[idliman]

While it is surprising that the dates moved substantially, we can find some logic in these actions. They have not moved the filing dates but are aggressive about FAD which means, they do not want to waste visa numbers and are not waiting to see what spillover will be used by ROW. Initially I thought that they will wait till last quarter but they must have some clarity of usage pattern for ROW and EB1 so the spillover is being used. While no one can predict what USCIS is going to do, I strongly believe that the FAD will move in similar pace till Sep visa bulleting and maybe beyond when Filing dates will be pushed forward as well.

They may also be preparing for immigration bill and if that passes, millions of applications will need to be processed. If they divert resources there, we may lose visas on EB side because hiring more staff and training will take time if immi bill happens.

I am just paraphrasing Ace's recent saying: "You are hoping for Chicken Biryani and the eggs are only hatching now". I think it is just the 5.2K movement with some margin. If anyone has any other data points, lets discuss.

Immigration bill is a long shot as of now and the wording will change a 1000 times before it is voted. You need 10 republican Senators to overcome the filibuster for that. If you want to have a feel for how tough it is in the Hill, wait to see how many R's are going to vote for 1.9T COVID bill.

[maverick2010]

Reg EB2 to EB3 downgrade: Did your attorney file a new I-140 separately for EB3 or just amended existing I-140 to EB3. If you have two separate I-140's then you are eligible in both queues. Your kid is 16. Assuming that he/she starts college at 18, you should have enough time to get FA dates current and stop the age-out. I don't see any problem with filing "AOS" for your kid. He/she will get a SSN first. Just work to make sure that you have both EB2 and EB3 routes as your kid is facing a age-our scenario.

The AOS dependents status is tied to primary status. If the primary is on EB2, the dependent's are on EB2. Otherwise they are on EB3. It is impossible for the primary to be in EB3 and dependent to be on EB2. Depending on which "FA" date becomes current, you will have to move your existing I485 application to that queue. You may want to read about which queue is better for your PD. But, I would prepare for both the queues and do what is necessary to make myself eligible for both at moment's notice.

No problem with your wife's employment. She can continue to work on H4 EAD till she gets GC / AOS based EAD/AP. Once you have GC EAD in hand your wife will switch to "AOS Pending Status". I had listed 4 advantages of GC EAD in an earlier post. An integral part of staying in EAD status OR maintaining an unexpired EAD/AP is filing for timely renewal. Browse our EAD forum to prepare for that.

AOS or I485 application is filed only once. You can always "change underlying basis" a.k.a. "interfiling". Attorneys don't file more than one I485 as it can cause unintended consequences. It is like you having two SSN's. One A# is given per alien.

Immigrant and Non-Immigrant visas are different. H1/ L1 and their derivatives H2/L2 are non-immigrant visas. They allow you to enter USA and do your job. If you meet some conditions, then you can get an EAD to work on H2/L2. GC is immigrant visa. Once you apply for I485 a.k.a. Adjustment of Status (AOS), you automatically have a backup status called "AOS Pending". You need to meet 180 day requirement to be eligible for AC21. Under "AOS Pending", you can work if you have EAD and travel when you have AP.

You are in the right place. Just keep reading more and more posts and you will be an immigration expert in no time. Good Luck.

Above post have lot of insights related to "interfiling"

Idliman ,

Since applicant can file I-485 'only once', what if if someone already filed I-485 and want to downgrade now? (My situation - I have already filed I-485 with Sep 2010 priority date and thinking about downgrade)

Thanks
Jay

[gcconnect]

Above post have lot of insights related to "interfiling"

Idliman ,

Since applicant can file I-485 'only once', what if if someone already filed I-485 and want to downgrade now? (My situation - I have already filed I-485 with Sep 2010 priority date and thinking about downgrade)

Thanks
Jay

For 2010 EB2I people - IMHO Its not right time to think about downgrade as explained earlier EB1 getting current vertical spillover will cover some part and the horizontal spill over will cover rest of the 2010.

[idliman]

Above post have lot of insights related to "interfiling"
Idliman ,

Since applicant can file I-485 'only once', what if if someone already filed I-485 and want to downgrade now? (My situation - I have already filed I-485 with Sep 2010 priority date and thinking about downgrade)

Thanks
Jay

First with the recent pace of EB2 movement, you may be current very soon in EB2. As you already have "AOS Pending" and EAD/AP, I would advise you to do EB2 to EB3 interfiling only when the "FA" dates are current and you are reasonably confident that they will not retrogress.

Next I want to point out an often ignored point. If you transfer basis from EB2 to EB3 or vice versa using a new I-140, it will reset the adjudication clock for AC21 portability eligibility. You need to stay with the employer for 180 days after "Interfiling". There is no law for "Interfiling". So it is just a administrative procedure followed by USCIS and you may browse through the USCIS PM Chapter 8. One of the requirements is that I-485 application must be continuously eligible for approval.

If you are working for the same employer / same job / same location as you EB2 I-140, I see no problem in doing a new EB3 I-140. Interfiling is just a "letter" / "request" made to USCIS to link your I485 file to another "I-140". The same process is used to move one from I-130 (Family based) to I-140 (employment based). I-485 application just for an individual. If you clear all the checks, then eligibility comes from EB / FB or marriage.

[bones20]

For 2010 EB2I people - IMHO Its not right time to think about downgrade as explained earlier EB1 getting current vertical spillover will cover some part and the horizontal spill over will cover rest of the 2010.

My PD is 04/29/2010. Thinking about downgrade since it seems it will take at least 2 more months to become current ("bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"). Any suggestion?

[Transformer]

Interfiling is just a "letter" / "request" made to USCIS to link your I485 file to another "I-140".

Thanks Idliman for your insights on interfiling. I had a consultation with RNLawGroup (Rahul Reddy) before and what's their take is, "interfiling" has no proper definition in USCIS manual and once we do an interfiling request, it may or may not be accepted. They are advising all their clients to file another 485 when switching the lanes. Especially with kids aging out, generally the first of the month when FAD becomes current the child's age is frozen. What they say is interfiling doesn't freeze the age. If you are lucky you get GC for the kid, if not he may age out. They are saying it is perfectly legal to have more than one 485 and they said they filed for several of their clients and at the time of adjudication, the officer will request them to withdraw other 485 and approves one.

I hear the same from them repeatedly in all their weekly youtube question hours. What's your take on that?

[Transformer]

My PD is 04/29/2010. Thinking about downgrade since it seems it will take at least 2 more months to become current ("bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"). Any suggestion?

Do you already have approved 140 in EB3? If not, I don't think it is a good idea. 140 is taking a long time now and most of the cases they are rejecting premium process for downgrade 140. I think, you will get your GC in EB2 before your EB3 140 is approved.

[smuggymba]

My PD is 02 March 2010, need to reply RFE next week. Hopefully it will be current next month.

What's your service center? TCS or NSC?

[vsivarama]

My PD is 04/29/2010. Thinking about downgrade since it seems it will take at least 2 more months to become current ("bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"). Any suggestion?

Unless you already have a i140 in EB3 approved it's only going to add to your wait time. Plus for people who are thinking of downgrade (esp who filed AOS in Oct 2020), need to keep one thing in mind. Date is current not necessarily equals to GC. Date is current and 485 application process (fingerprints/Background checks/possible Interviews) is complete equals GC. USCIS will perform these actions on their schedule.

[idliman]

Thanks Idliman for your insights on interfiling. I had a consultation with RNLawGroup (Rahul Reddy) before and what's their take is, "interfiling" has no proper definition in USCIS manual and once we do an interfiling request, it may or may not be accepted. They are advising all their clients to file another 485 when switching the lanes. Especially with kids aging out, generally the first of the month when FAD becomes current the child's age is frozen. What they say is interfiling doesn't freeze the age. If you are lucky you get GC for the kid, if not he may age out. They are saying it is perfectly legal to have more than one 485 and they said they filed for several of their clients and at the time of adjudication, the officer will request them to withdraw other 485 and approves one.

I hear the same from them repeatedly in all their weekly youtube question hours. What's your take on that?

What you are asking is beyond my paygrade of "Internet Troll" / "Keyboard Warrior". Here's my take.

This is more of a practice thing. How different law firms do their business practice is different. This law firm consisting of Rahul Reddy and Emily Neumann (aka Immigration Girl) were made internet famous in the ITServ alliance issue. Google to see more details / videos for yourself.

There is nothing in the law that prevents multiple I-485's. You will use the A# (equivalent of SSN) to let USCIS catalog your multiple I485s. But there must be a reason why respectable law firms do not follow this route. Once you file additional I485, you need to pay for another set of I485 fees. With interfiling you don't have to do that.

Various respectable law firms have used "interfiling" method for decades and got successful results. The Chinese back loggers pioneered the EB3 downgrade. It is described well in the USCIS Policy Manual and practice, I don't know what else you need. If you have 10% truth, you can "Honest Bullshit" something. In the words of 45th President, "I call it Truthful Hyperbole".

If it were me, I would get separate opinion from other reputable law firms before deciding.

[SOL123]

March 2021 Visa Bulletin is out

EB2 15 JAN 2010
EB3 01 July 2010

[Transformer]

Once again thanks Idliman for your thoughtfulness. This is the reason I come to this forum, to get insights from people like you with evidence/link to the law.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Looking at the July 2018 pending I-485 inventory, can we say only 3,500 or so will be pending in EB2 India? Could be lower with some abandoning their case, moved to other categories etc.

[android09]

Thanks Idliman for your insights on interfiling. I had a consultation with RNLawGroup (Rahul Reddy) before and what's their take is, "interfiling" has no proper definition in USCIS manual and once we do an interfiling request, it may or may not be accepted. They are advising all their clients to file another 485 when switching the lanes. Especially with kids aging out, generally the first of the month when FAD becomes current the child's age is frozen. What they say is interfiling doesn't freeze the age. If you are lucky you get GC for the kid, if not he may age out. They are saying it is perfectly legal to have more than one 485 and they said they filed for several of their clients and at the time of adjudication, the officer will request them to withdraw other 485 and approves one.

I hear the same from them repeatedly in all their weekly youtube question hours. What's your take on that?

With the thousands upon thousands of immigration law firms out there, why did you have to go to these guys ?