EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[Pundit Arjun]

vsivarama,

Nicely put.
I like and agree with your statement : "I believe people are smart enough to make their own decisions. They may think differently than you, but that does not make them"... better or stupid or evil or good.
Everyone has their own reasons and none of us have the right to judge others [Coz we will be wrong...].

Heres to hoping for a positive movement and approval for all [per the rules].

Stay Well and Stay Happy

[AceMan]

Looks like you are trying your hardest to twist my example and not make sense of it. . Anyways that's besides the point. I believe people are smart enough to make their own decisions. They may think differently than you, but that does not make them mindless/headless chickens. I have a few friends with PD in late 2014. You know the reason they downgraded? To get EADs and be off H1. We all know how immigration friendly H1 policies were being put forward last year. They wanted to avoid the uncertainty of H1 and have some semblance of control in their lives (even with job changes). Their logic was simple rather than wait for GC on H1 it's better to wait on EAD. I don't see any mindless downgrades there. I partly downgraded because of this and one other reason. I will share my other reason if it turns out to be true as that's purely my opinion based on anecdotal evidence. I do not want to pass it off as a stat in this forum. Didn't we all want to migrate to this country because of the freedom it provides? In a free country people should be allowed to do what's in their best interest.

We are discussing the possibilities my friend. You did the downgrade to EB2 with best interests in mind, in the same way many people till 12/2014 in EB2. The headless chickens are the ones (30,520 in 2018, 28,352 in 2019) in Eb2 I from 2018 till March 2020 after seeing more than 200,000 - 140 applicants already waiting in EB2.

I am saying come this October 2021, the same guys are going to jump back to EB2 I queue stating they had amended the petition when it should have been new.. we all know the drill.

Free choices, since we are all anecdotal, analogy experts, till the bodyline series in 1933-34 you can bowl any number of bouncers and any number of fielders on the leg side of a batsman. All it took is a captain like Jardine and a bowler like Larwood to get the rule changed. :-D

When your choice of best self interest involves adding a new application to the detriment of another applicant that has to be pointed out.

So if it has to be, join both Eb2 and 3 instead of letting people jump from one line to another!!!

[InbaMayam]

Hello Gurus and everyone , appreciate all of your valuable posts.

I am reposting due to initial approval for newcomer and went past date


I am eb3-I and my priority date is current since Jan2021 and my 485 is not approved yet, so far no status change after interview was completed in 2019. 485 was applied in Jan2019 , didn't use attorney's help. I am having EAD renewed until mid of 2022. My contract is ending with client in Feb 2021. My client and my current employer (485 sponsor) agreed to the full time employment conversion with client.
I have not changed jobs and currently working on h1 with my 485 sponsor last 15 years. I am planning to use EAD to join my client as full time and joining date would be March 1st.

If my 485 is approved before March 1st, then is it ok to use the GC and join my client, without making an I-9 entry of GC with my 485 sponsor.
Any valuable suggestions please. Sincere Thanks.

[idliman]

Hello Gurus and everyone , appreciate all of your valuable posts.

I am reposting due to initial approval for newcomer and went past date


I am eb3-I and my priority date is current since Jan2021 and my 485 is not approved yet, so far no status change after interview was completed in 2019. 485 was applied in Jan2019 , didn't use attorney's help. I am having EAD renewed until mid of 2022. My contract is ending with client in Feb 2021. My client and my current employer (485 sponsor) agreed to the full time employment conversion with client.
I have not changed jobs and currently working on h1 with my 485 sponsor last 15 years. I am planning to use EAD to join my client as full time and joining date would be March 1st.

If my 485 is approved before March 1st, then is it ok to use the GC and join my client, without making an I-9 entry of GC with my 485 sponsor.
Any valuable suggestions please. Sincere Thanks.

Your I485 has been pending for 180 days. So you are eligible for AC21 job portability. You have no problem joining FT. However to invoke AC21, it would be helpful to have a) SOC code b) Job Title and c)Job description. So try to get PERM / I-140 from your original employer. If it is lost, you can do a FOIA request. I would suggest you to apply for AC21 immediately after joining the job. Don't wait. This way you are covered for Citizenship form later on. Good luck fellow Oors.

Edit: I don't get your question about I-9. The moment you join any new employer, they will have to do compliance (E-Verify / I-9). The only way you can work with the new FT employer is either by using GC or EAD or by transferring H1B. You had indicated that you are going to use EAD or GC. So you have to file a I-9 with any new employer. If you are still in EAD/AP status, please make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP forum on the advantages and disadvantages of EAD & H1B. Also before travel on EAD/AP make sure you read the AP travel thread. Good Luck.

[qesehmk]

Right now we are waiting for March bulletin and I am telling people how the downgrades and mindless upgrades have screwed the people.

Ace - I like you and appreciate your posts. I just think it is futile to discuss this. The simple reason being - because of limited number of visas - immigration does become a zero sum game.

So our position on this forum should be - let people do what they want to do in their self interest and let USCIS be the arbiter of somebody's claim to upgrade / downgrade etc. We will not be a party to villifying or glorifying any one immigrant group over another.

I think it is best in everybody's interest to focus our energy on supporting each other. We should put data in front of people and let them decide what is in their interest.

[Kesid23]

I applied in October 2020 too and had my fingerprinting done on December 2. I am still waiting for EAD!!!

Was yours MSC? What series ?

[2011Feb]

I applied in October 2020 too and had my fingerprinting done on December 2. I am still waiting for EAD!!!

Was yours MSC? What series ?

Finally got a EAD for myself and my wife .

EB3 I Priority date : FEB2011, Applied on 01OCT2020; Biometrics : 22Jan2021

It is an MSC number from NBC.

[vsivarama]

Heres to hoping for a positive movement and approval for all [per the rules].

Stay Well and Stay Happy

Amen to that! Do we think the visa bulletin will be released tomorrow. That will at least show some shift from old admin. I am not even talking about movement here.

[AceMan]

Ace - I like you and appreciate your posts. I just think it is futile to discuss this. The simple reason being - because of limited number of visas - immigration does become a zero sum game.

So our position on this forum should be - let people do what they want to do in their self interest and let USCIS be the arbiter of somebody's claim to upgrade / downgrade etc. We will not be a party to villifying or glorifying any one immigrant group over another.

I think it is best in everybody's interest to focus our energy on supporting each other. We should put data in front of people and let them decide what is in their interest.

That is exactly what I was driving the point to with the highlighted text in my previous post. With 5 years experience every one should directly qualify for Eb2.
What is the point in having an Eb3 lane where people use up the spots. Why even need a separate application?

A combined list of 80080 for both EB2 and 3, or if we want to include Eb1 also a combined availability of 120120.

Anyways as you mentioned, this is my closing argument on this specific topic.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Amen to that! Do we think the visa bulletin will be released tomorrow. That will at least show some shift from old admin. I am not even talking about movement here.

New Admin is leaving some of the immigration lawyers shell shocked with their actions coming in. I don't know the exact details but looks like they are dragging their feet on the IV/DV bans for one, Asylum process and releasing some toothless Executive Orders. Could be that they are just too busy fighting Covid or they are actually continuing some Trump era rules as an excuse to mollify some people who were ready to jump on them saying "see they are for open borders!".

[vedu]

So if it has to be, join both Eb2 and 3 instead of letting people jump from one line to another!!!

Ace,

my friend, that's your frustration against the USCIS and its rules. I get that, but you broadly downgrading innocent people who are trying to downgrade themselves (to EB3 ) as "headless chickens" is not fair.

People who are trying to secure EAD/APs for themselves and their families by downgrading are not headless chickens.

People who already have EAD/APs, but trying to downgrade to get GC 6-7 months earlier to protect their aging out kids are not headless chickens.

In general, life is very uncertain and it is in everybody's best interest to try to secure GC as soon as possible. We all know cases where sudden demise of a primary applicant brought down the GC dreams of entire family. Wish they would have gotten their GCs a few months earlier.

We never know why people are taking certain course of action until we are ourselves in their shoes.

[Zenzone]

New Admin is leaving some of the immigration lawyers shell shocked with their actions coming in. I don't know the exact details but looks like they are dragging their feet on the IV/DV bans for one, Asylum process and releasing some toothless Executive Orders. Could be that they are just too busy fighting Covid or they are actually continuing some Trump era rules as an excuse to mollify some people who were ready to jump on them saying "see they are for open borders!".

There had been some rumblings I agree. Its very early to make these conclusions though. Some of the dragging the feet perception is coming from legal technicalities that the govt. attorneys on these lawsuits should take as defense counsel I guess. It will be political suicide for JB Admin to take the negative press on continuing family separations and deportations for example, therefore I expect the practices to become coherent with the policy narrative in coming weeks.

[qesehmk]

Friends please let it rest. All of us including Ace agree that people have every right to do what they please.

Ace's point that the original EB classification has become a joke after decades of wait is very very valid. Unfortunately USCIS is government and government is ass. We can't reason with USCIS. All we can do is either engage in constructive advocacy or simply visit this forum and others and help your fellow immigrants while maximizing your own well being. Sorry - I don't mean to preach anybody. But please rest this argument.

[monsieur]

My last comment on EB2/3 - As mid-20s guy, I was not fully aware of all the GC rules. At that age, I was not into reading policy manual to see. I had lots of mis-information regarding GC steps (Perm, I-140, I-485, adding dependent) mind was jumbled with all different rules of F1, CPT, OPT and H1-B. If my friend is doing it, It was good for me.

Lack of correct information and/or guidance was main reason I waited for 4.5 yrs of my H1 when my employer was trying since 2007 to file my GC (filed in 2010). I see same situation from new guys as well. I take this as learning curve of being 1st gen immigrant and move on. No point of dwelling on it when I can't change anything abt it. I can just pay-it-forward to folks which I try to do my best.

[monsieur]

Back to prediction note - I don't see VB coming this week. Its a long weekend for many. VB to be out by 19th will be a win in my books with usual week in EB2 and Month tops in EB3.

JBAdmin is just taking over; it will take 2-3 months for Secs to have their own staff and start making changes. Best bet we will see Obama-Admin level by summer and policy changes by fall.

Trump Admin was not able to tighten ship on first year itself. They were determined to stop flow of immigrant, still needed months and in some cases years to implement restriction. Even with determination (which I don't see in JB-Admin), it will take year or 2 to completely dis-mantle it. Whether we agree or not, few of those rules were common sense rules and needs update, which Trump Admin did; we may of to live with those going fwd.

[InbaMayam]

Your I485 has been pending for 180 days. So you are eligible for AC21 job portability. You have no problem joining FT. However to invoke AC21, it would be helpful to have a) SOC code b) Job Title and c)Job description. So try to get PERM / I-140 from your original employer. If it is lost, you can do a FOIA request. I would suggest you to apply for AC21 immediately after joining the job. Don't wait. This way you are covered for Citizenship form later on. Good luck fellow Oors.

Edit: I don't get your question about I-9. The moment you join any new employer, they will have to do compliance (E-Verify / I-9). The only way you can work with the new FT employer is either by using GC or EAD or by transferring H1B. You had indicated that you are going to use EAD or GC. So you have to file a I-9 with any new employer. If you are still in EAD/AP status, please make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP forum on the advantages and disadvantages of EAD & H1B. Also before travel on EAD/AP make sure you read the AP travel thread. Good Luck.

Thank you. Since I am current since last month and interview was completed long back, there is a chance that my 485 will be approved prior to March 1st, in this case, do I violate by not joining my original GC sponsor after GC approval but join directly new employer? If GC is approved and i get the card prior to March 1st, then I have to use GC in place of showing my EAD card correct for I-9 validation, hence asking. If my GC is not approved prior to March 1st, I will go by EAD and filing 485J etc.. at that time Client will be my future employer.

[AceMan]

Back to prediction note - I don't see VB coming this week. Its a long weekend for many. VB to be out by 19th will be a win in my books with usual week in EB2 and Month tops in EB3.

JBAdmin is just taking over; it will take 2-3 months for Secs to have their own staff and start making changes. Best bet we will see Obama-Admin level by summer and policy changes by fall.

Trump Admin was not able to tighten ship on first year itself. They were determined to stop flow of immigrant, still needed months and in some cases years to implement restriction. Even with determination (which I don't see in JB-Admin), it will take year or 2 to completely dis-mantle it. Whether we agree or not, few of those rules were common sense rules and needs update, which Trump Admin did; we may of to live with those going fwd.

If you look at the DHS/USCIS it always had very special basket cases in their team even during Obama time.

Why on earth would some body in 2015 set the aging out of the kid date, who already has been provided EAD to Final action Date instead of Filing date? It was intentional.

[LeoAugust]

In a complicated scenario like yourself with uncertainties, try to break into simpler things first.

AOS Pending Status: It is where you have an I-485 receipt number. By itself, a) it does not allow you to work and b) it does not allow you to reenter the country. There is no requirement of work.

AOS Pending + EAD: EAD allows you to work when you are in AOS pending status.

AOS Pending + AP: It allows you to travel out of the country without abandoning your I485. If you travel without AP, you are in serious jeopardy unless you have another status such as H1, L1, etc., See AP Travel thread for more info.

AC21 or INA Section 204(j): It grants you ?job portability? after 180 days of pending I485 from ?Received Date? on I485 form I797 receipt notice.

I485 Supplement J: First understand that I485 / GC is for a future job that is stated on PERM. The first time you file I485, Supp J is for confirmation of Bona Fide Job Offer. After 180 days if you send Supp J it is a request for Job Portability Under INA Section 204(j) / AC21.

The moment you talk about AC21, the first rule is no matter what you have to meet the 180 day requirement. After 180 days, you are a "free agent" and you can go and work for any employer as long as the job is in ?same or similar? category. It goes without saying that you need to have an EAD to work in AOS Pending status.



You are correct. After 180 days, you will use AC21 and port to previous employer and then request USCIS for ?Transfer of Underlying Basis? a.k.a Interfiling. You can move from EB2 to EB3 and vice versa as you have two sets of PERM+I-140 approved by two different employers. See Murthy article on this for more details / fine print.



Yes you are correct. That?s why I recommend my friends who are facing age-out type scenario to maintain an EB2 and EB3 I140. Whichever queue becomes ?FA? current first, you can Interfile and lock the child?s age.

Hope this helps.

Just wish to know, When H-1 extension got denied and I485 pending(having I485 receipts) and EAD and AP applied (a week back and No receipts yet), Is that person is legal to stay in US... or have to leave the country ?

[idliman]

Thank you. Since I am current since last month and interview was completed long back, there is a chance that my 485 will be approved prior to March 1st, in this case, do I violate by not joining my original GC sponsor after GC approval but join directly new employer? If GC is approved and i get the card prior to March 1st, then I have to use GC in place of showing my EAD card correct for I-9 validation, hence asking. If my GC is not approved prior to March 1st, I will go by EAD and filing 485J etc.. at that time Client will be my future employer.

Whether the GC will be approved by such and such date is impossible to answer. It depends on the USCIS workload and also on the workload / priority of the AO assigned to adjudicate your case.

Your GC filing is based on an offer of employment for a future, permanent position. The employer attests that the position will be available for the foreign national once the green card is issued, and the sponsored worker promises to work on a full-time and permanent basis in that position upon approval of the green card. You are expected to work for the sponspored position for a *reasonable* period of time (regardless of the 12 years that you worked for them before GC).

The issue is that changing employers after GC may show bad faith. If you never worked for the sponsoring employer, this could lead USCIS to believe that you never intendend to work in the sponsored position and in-turn the validity of GC. USCIS is within its rights to revoke your GC. This will clearly show up in the N-400 application where you are required to provide your employment history for the last 5 years. I personally have not heard about recission due to job change, but it is possible if a right wing admin takes office right at the time when you send your N-400.

That's why I told you to file AC-21 as soon as possible. You may need to raise this issue with the attorneys and get their opinion. Hope this Helps.

[vsivarama]

Just wish to know, When H-1 extension got denied and I485 pending(having I485 receipts) and EAD and AP applied (a week back and No receipts yet), Is that person is legal to stay in US... or have to leave the country ?

You are legal to stay in the country, but not work. You can reapply your H1b and await it's approval to start working again. If your old i-94 for previously approved H1 still has time, you can continue working till 240 days while the reapplied petition is still pending adjudication.

[AceMan]

Just wish to know, When H-1 extension got denied and I485 pending(having I485 receipts) and EAD and AP applied (a week back and No receipts yet), Is that person is legal to stay in US... or have to leave the country ?

Any time a person is waiting, in this case 485 Pending, he does not have to leave the country.

[idliman]

Just wish to know, When H-1 extension got denied and I485 pending(having I485 receipts) and EAD and AP applied (a week back and No receipts yet), Is that person is legal to stay in US... or have to leave the country ?

Once you have a I485 receipt notice and I485 is pending, you are legal in the USA. You cannot accrue unlawful presence. However to work and travel you need separate authorizations, ie., EAD & AP, respectively.

You can work on EAD/AP forever. You will be in trouble only when I485 is denied because of fraud, medical, criminal, background / terrorism, public charge, etc., type issues.

AC21 / 180 day requirement is the silver bullet to ward of all evil scenarios. People just don't realize. It is such a gift for people who had filed I485. That will protect you against any scenario that you can imagine.

[iamdeb]

Hi Gurus...quick question regarding passport renewal...It is mentioned to attach a notarized color copy of legal status in USA. Any suggestions from where can I get the notary done and how much it cost?
Thanks in advance!

[LeoAugust]

Thanks @vsivarama @AceMan and @idliman for your response.

[vedu]

Hi Gurus...quick question regarding passport renewal...It is mentioned to attach a notarized color copy of legal status in USA. Any suggestions from where can I get the notary done and how much it cost?
Thanks in advance!

You can get it notarized for free at your local bank. Also, generally any UPS store keep a notary who can notarize documents for a fee of $10/20 per document.