EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Punjabi,

I appreciate your kind words. I know that EB2 should've been a cakewalk. But the way all those PERMs were cleared just in time ... killed hopes. Its a travesty of justice that IC folks have to wait for so long. But then these are the rules and you have to follow them!

Regarding predictions .. I wish it could be any easier. Hopefully in next couple of months we will have better I140 data from website as well as better trackitt data to track trend.

Hi qesehmrk
I am following you blog 1st on immigrationvoice website since it started & now on your own blog. You have been always a nice positive ray of hope or fresh breeze of air if If I may say. Please dont lose that image by painting such a bad scenario for lots of your fans. At the max you might be wrong ...so who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!! But please don"t fall in trap of all those negative people who are stating again & again that there is no future for Eb2 since this blog started ( remember when you stated first time that Eb2would be cleared in 2-3 years without a so called dream bill ..they were all jumping on your throat)..Fact is that Eb2 has seen a movement of almost 2 years since we started to discuss it so it can't be any different this year..
best regards

Q,Spec,
Agreed, EB2ROW/C might have 3K porting, this brings us to the point to conclude that 1/2 of the i140 completions for FY 2010 are EB1/EB2ROW

Veni you lost me there. Didn't understand the correlation.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec & Veni.

Makes sense. So if EB3I has 3K conversion then I would imagine ROW and EB3C will have at least 3K - which should then equal to 6K. Again .... not a pretty picture. But not too bad.

p.s. EB3C is calculatable (if there is such a word!) but EB3ROW is not because its dates are moving a bit faster and is capable of adding PWMBs. Right?

In theory, EB2-C Porting could be calculated by the same method.

If you do this, you get a negative number, i.e the Inventory accounts for more cases than approvals, so I would have to assume zero.

The other side of the calculation with EB3-C is problematical as well. EB3-C had 56.15% CP last year and this may skew the figures considerably. It gives a figure of 1,207. Averaging it out gives 643.

Since the EB2 figure does not yield a positive figure, I suggest we ignore Porting as a significant factor for EB2-China.

As far as I am aware, you are correct in saying the same approach cannot be used for EB2-ROW. The calculation for EB3-ROW gives a positive figure i.e there were less reductions than expected, so I can only assume zero Porting.

PS When I say assume zero Porting, I mean it is not possible to derive it from the figures. I am sure there is some, but it must be at quite a low level outside of India. Therefore we might be able to ignore it as a significant factor in the calculations.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Wouldn't chinese conversion = conversion calculated using EB2I method (a) + CP actual number (can be obtained from DoS reports of 2010 actuals) (b)?

Since (a) is -ve then if you add (b) ... gives you exact conversion from EB 2->3

In theory, EB2-C Porting could be calculated by the same method.

If you do this, you get a negative number, i.e the Inventory accounts for more cases than approvals, so I would have to assume zero.

The other side of the calculation with EB3-C is problematical as well. EB3-C had 56.15% CP last year and this may skew the figures considerably. It gives a figure of 1,207. Averaging it out gives 643.

Since the EB2 figure does not yield a positive figure, I suggest we ignore Porting as a significant factor for EB2-China.

As far as I am aware, you are correct in saying the same approach cannot be used for EB2-ROW. The calculation for EB3-ROW gives a positive figure i.e there were less reductions than expected, so I can only assume zero Porting.

[veni001]

Veni you lost me there. Didn't understand the correlation.

Q,
FY 2010 total i140 completions - 73,746
Apply 15-20% denial rate then this brings approvals to about 60k -62K
FY 2010 EB1 i485 approvals - 41,026, This translates to about 18.5K i140
FY 2010 EB2ROW,M&P i485 approvals - 27,406, This translates to about 12.5K i140
Total EB1,EB2ROW,M&P I140 approvals for FY2010 = 18.5k+12.5k =31k (50% of approved i140)

[Spectator]

Spec

Wouldn't chinese conversion = conversion calculated using EB2I method (a) + CP actual number (can be obtained from DoS reports of 2010 actuals) (b)?

Since (a) is -ve then if you add (b) ... gives you exact conversion from EB 2->3

Q,

I am already accounting for CP. That is one of the reasons my calculation differs from veni's. I am also accounting for the fact that there is only 9.5 months between the Inventories and adjusting the Dec09 figure back to October 2009.

In a way, the discussion only relates to the past.

It is now impossible to use the same method, because additions can come from Local Offices.

Particularly for the EB3 calculation, it will be impossible to calculate the reduction due to Porting, since it will appear lower due to an unknown number of additions from LO.

It has an effect on EB2, but not as much, since the EB2 LO cases appear to be quite low at present. Nonetheless, the presence of any additional LO cases in the EB2 Inventory will depress the number of apparent Porting cases.

[Spectator]

On the subject of Porting, I believe in the main, it is currently confined to India because of the huge disparity in Cut Off Dates between EB2 and EB3 and the time it will take for even fairly old PD in EB3-I to become Current.

I think that might change in coming years and that numbers from other Countries, particularly China and ROW will increase.

From looking at the number of LO cases that were added in the January Inventory and when they were added, I have a suspicion that the October 2010 Inventory might only represent a little over half of the total number of cases in EB3 which USCIS is really processing.

The true extent of the LO cases will only become apparent over several years, as interviews are finally conducted and the cases are added to the Inventory.

If that proves even semi-accurate, when people realize what that means to the time scales to become Current, the pressure to Port will increase substantially for all Countries.

Of course wanting to Port and being able to are two different things.

[kd2008]

For me, FY 2011 is a done deal and I do not expect much out of it for EB2 I+C.

But I have been thinking about what Teddy has said about EB2ROW demand falling sharply on Trackitt. Given the way things are right now, it will be very important piece of info come FY 2012. I know its long ways away. But the way things progress through USCIS, FY 2012 can be a blessing in many ways or a complete disaster.

As Eb2 I+C demand gets used up, it will very important see how USCIS progresses dates beyond July 2007 and how soon does it do it. Should it choose to open the flood gates in October 2011 - the first month of FY 2012, the whole year will be a blessing for using up the lack of demand from EB2ROW. If it waits till spillover season i.e. June 2012, it will be a disaster as there will not be enough EB2ROW and not enough EB2 I+C in the pipeline to be approved.

I guess we already new this but the Teddy's piece of info just highlights how important and fragile this will be. O the cursed stars of Eb2 I+C!

[shaumack]

First of all let me mention that you guys are doing a great job ova here and I really appreciate y'all putting ya time into this.

I definitly do not want to claim that I understand all ya calculations or know much about this; but when I compare Visas issued and AOS subjected to Numerical Limitation for FY 2009 and FY 2010 at DOL website, I do not see much difference in visa issued for FY 2009 and FY 2010 for EB1 category. So even if FY 2011 would yield similar demand in EB1 category and with EB2 having 3/4 demand of FY 2010 per your model, why would EB2 -IC not receive similar spillover in FY 2011? I do understand that we might not get similar 10K spillover due to unavailability of SOFAD from FB.

Demand.JPG

[qesehmk]

shaumack welcome to forum!

I am the most pessimist on this forum so let me answer first - so that anybody who answers next will be an improvement on me!!

The answer is - Because there is sufficient ROW in pineline that can potentially consume all ROW quota. EB1 will consume its own. & the EB5 we had last year is offset by the lack of 10K family.

First of all let me mention that you guys are doing a great job ova here and I really appreciate y'all putting ya time into this.

I definitly do not want to claim that I understand all ya calculations or know much about this; but when I compare Visas issued and AOS subjected to Numerical Limitation for FY 2009 and FY 2010 at DOL website, I do not see much difference in visa issued for FY 2009 and FY 2010 for EB1 category. So even if FY 2011 would yield similar demand in EB1 category and with EB2 having 3/4 demand of FY 2010 per your model, why would EB2 -IC not receive similar spillover in FY 2011? I do understand that we might not get similar 10K spillover due to unavailability of SOFAD from FB.

Demand.JPG

[veni001]

On the subject of Porting, I believe in the main, it is currently
........
I think that might change in coming years and that numbers from other Countries, particularly China and ROW will increase.
.........

Spec,
I am not expecting very much porting from China, M&P or even ROW here is my reason
EB3C only got 4K pending so they will be crossing July 2007 by Sept 2012
also total PERM approvals for China is 2k and 4K respectively in FY 2009 & FY 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3M&P got about 15K pending between April 05 and July 07 and also total PERM approvals for M&P is 2.5k and 6.5K respectively in FY 2009 & FY 2010, historically EB2 M&P demand is less.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3ROW got about 40k pending between April 05 and July 07 and about 30K PERM approvals in FY 2010 out of which we can count 50% as EB2 who already got their i485 approvals in 2010! So what ever porting from EB2ROW should be part of our estimated EB2ROW demand?
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[Spectator]

Spec,
I am not expecting very much porting from China, M&P or even ROW here is my reason
EB3C only got 4K pending so they will be crossing July 2007 by Sept 2012
also total PERM approvals for China is 2k and 4K respectively in FY 2009 & FY 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3M&P got about 15K pending between April 05 and July 07 and also total PERM approvals for M&P is 2.5k and 6.5K respectively in FY 2009 & FY 2010, historically EB2 M&P demand is less.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3ROW got about 40k pending between April 05 and July 07 and about 30K PERM approvals in FY 2010 out of which we can count 50% as EB2 who already got their i485 approvals in 2010! So what ever porting from EB2ROW should be part of our estimated EB2ROW demand?
------------------------------------------------------------------------

veni,

Thanks for your reply. I enjoy your comments.

I agree that China, Mexico and Philippines probably won't contribute substantially, due to their relatively low number of EB3 AOS cases.

I think EB3-ROW is a different story.

I agree, that for relatively new cases, we can assume that the person applied in EB2 in the first place.

Where I think there will be a change (and I don't know when), is in Porting of cases within the Current backlog.

The 40k October 2010 EB3-ROW Inventory is far too low a number from what we have seen already of Local Office cases. Once they have all been accounted for, it could be as high as 70k.

That will make a huge difference to when later EB3-ROW PD get Current. That in turn will persuade people, who have held off because they thought they would be Current earlier, to do something about it.

I don't think it will be huge numbers, but 2-3k a year would make a big difference to the forward movement of EB2-IC.

I don't think it will be a factor this year.

[Spectator]

First of all let me mention that you guys are doing a great job ova here and I really appreciate y'all putting ya time into this.

I definitly do not want to claim that I understand all ya calculations or know much about this; but when I compare Visas issued and AOS subjected to Numerical Limitation for FY 2009 and FY 2010 at DOL website, I do not see much difference in visa issued for FY 2009 and FY 2010 for EB1 category. So even if FY 2011 would yield similar demand in EB1 category and with EB2 having 3/4 demand of FY 2010 per your model, why would EB2 -IC not receive similar spillover in FY 2011? I do understand that we might not get similar 10K spillover due to unavailability of SOFAD from FB.

shaumack,

A welcome from me as well.

I generally agree with you.

I don't believe the potential demand shown in Q's chart will all be converted to approvals.

I see a decent chance of a respectable amount of Spillover to EB2-IC, although possibly not as much as last year due to the missing FB visas.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I like and agree w your sentence below. Spot on. That's where I think differences in opinion will be - if any. How much demand actually gets converted in 2010.

I don't believe the potential demand shown in Q's chart will all be converted to approvals.

[veni001]

veni,

Thanks for your reply. I enjoy your comments.

I agree that China, Mexico and Philippines probably won't contribute substantially, due to their relatively low number of EB3 AOS cases.

I think EB3-ROW is a different story.

I agree, that for relatively new cases, we can assume that the person applied in EB2 in the first place.

Where I think there will be a change (and I don't know when), is in Porting of cases within the Current backlog.

The 40k October 2010 EB3-ROW Inventory is far too low a number from what we have seen already of Local Office cases. Once they have all been accounted for, it could be as high as 70k.

That will make a huge difference to when later EB3-ROW PD get Current. That in turn will persuade people, who have held off because they thought they would be Current earlier, to do something about it.

I don't think it will be huge numbers, but 2-3k a year would make a big difference to the forward movement of EB2-IC.

I don't think it will be a factor this year.

Spec,
Agree, as i pointed earlier we can easily guesstimate EB1/EB2ROW demand using i140 tending from USCIS dashboard. Any significant deviation, from FY 2010 i140 receipts/completions trending, in FY 2011 will provide us some pointers. If no change in i140 trending means almost similar demand for EB1/EB2ROW for FY 2011.

[bieber]

veni001

can you post the link to the dashboard? thx

[qesehmk]

Friends.

Updated header w Specs predictions. Will be happy to include anybody else's predictions as well.

We are looking for EB1 SOFAD, EB2 SOFAD, EB5 SOFAD, Total SOFAD, Low End, High End SOFAD

[veni001]

veni001

can you post the link to the dashboard? thx

Bieber,
Here you go ...
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...71&charttype=1

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, Spec and Teddy,

I think we are underestimating the mag of EB3 to EB2 porting (6000). My company (which I am not stating due to privacy reasons with about 2000 people) recently had a policy change to allow EB3 to EB2 porting due to retention issues. About 50 people from my company (who are EB3) are now eligible to convert into EB2 and they have initiated the labor cert for those people. I think EB3 to EB2 conversion should be atleast 20000 people. I arrived the figure of 20000 based on companies similar to mine and having an extrapolation factor. I am in ATL and already know 3 consulting companies who are converting people due to retention issues.

Thanks!

Thanks for this piece of info, porting does seem to be on the rise. Last year the porting was calculated to be 3 this year my assumption is 6K but yes it could well be more. On a side note when there are too many applications from even a large company it could lead to mass denials as well, maybe you can track these cases its a long and tough road ahead. Good luck to all your colleagues, being in EB3-I is very tough.

pch053,

You ask good questions.

I can only give my personal opinion about this.

For Porting, as far as USCIS is aware, there is only a new I-140, which is obviously not part of the Inventory.

The I-485, which is, is already on the Inventory under EB3. That will only get changed at the point that the new I-140 is linked to the existing I-485 and the case is approved. In this case, the I-485 is never shown as part of the EB2 USCIS Inventory.

There is different argument as to whether USCIS are properly removing the Porting case from the EB3 Inventory figures.

Certainly, there was no evidence of Porting cases within the EB2 USCIS Inventory last year.

I think it is now impossible to analyze the Inventory in this way, even if they were added. Since the Inventory now includes pre-adjudicated cases from Local Offices, it would be impossible to tell whether the addition was due to a Porting or LO case.

Anyway, as I said, I don't think the Porting case will ever show up on the EB2 Inventory numbers.

I hope that makes sense.

Spec I agree with you a 100% on this purely based on inventory difference the calculation of porting is not possible anymore.

[TeddyKoochu]

For me, FY 2011 is a done deal and I do not expect much out of it for EB2 I+C.

But I have been thinking about what Teddy has said about EB2ROW demand falling sharply on Trackitt. Given the way things are right now, it will be very important piece of info come FY 2012. I know its long ways away. But the way things progress through USCIS, FY 2012 can be a blessing in many ways or a complete disaster.

As Eb2 I+C demand gets used up, it will very important see how USCIS progresses dates beyond July 2007 and how soon does it do it. Should it choose to open the flood gates in October 2011 - the first month of FY 2012, the whole year will be a blessing for using up the lack of demand from EB2ROW. If it waits till spillover season i.e. June 2012, it will be a disaster as there will not be enough EB2ROW and not enough EB2 I+C in the pipeline to be approved.

I guess we already new this but the Teddy's piece of info just highlights how important and fragile this will be. O the cursed stars of Eb2 I+C!

KD, Thanks, lets not give up our hopes yes, the perm surge must hit the I485 queue by Q2 latest (March end). Last year the EB2 projection based on Trackitt was accurate that is leading me to believe that maybe it could well be this year, Trackitt is not reliable for EB1 though. All thanks to your excel formula to analyze the perm case numbers.

[haripathhi]

This might be old news to most ppl, however, according to murthy.com (http://murthy.com/bulletin.html - VOL. XVII, no. 04; Jan 2011, week 4 - "Changes in Adjustment of Status Procedures for Non-Current Priority Dates"), I see this today:

"The memorandum also instructs the USCIS field offices to transfer I-485 cases that had interviews before January 1, 2011, if the priority dates are not current. These cases were to be transferred to TSC or NBC by December 31, 2010. The memorandum sets out a system for communication about the issuance of an immigrant visa number for such cases, since the field offices would have made those requests prior to the change in the procedures."

Does this not mean that the latest visa statistics report is up-to-date and that there might not be radical changes from it in their next report?

[Spectator]

This might be old news to most ppl, however, according to murthy.com (http://murthy.com/bulletin.html - VOL. XVII, no. 04; Jan 2011, week 4 - "Changes in Adjustment of Status Procedures for Non-Current Priority Dates"), I see this today:

"The memorandum also instructs the USCIS field offices to transfer I-485 cases that had interviews before January 1, 2011, if the priority dates are not current. These cases were to be transferred to TSC or NBC by December 31, 2010. The memorandum sets out a system for communication about the issuance of an immigrant visa number for such cases, since the field offices would have made those requests prior to the change in the procedures."

Does this not mean that the latest visa statistics report is up-to-date and that there might not be radical changes from it in their next report?

haripathhi,

I think the pertinent part of your quote is:

transfer I-485 cases that had interviews before January 1, 2011

That leaves all the cases that have NOT had an interview at the Local Offices and therefore invisible.

The January Inventory suggested that Local Offices are only interviwing those people within a few months of the current Cut Off Date. That leaves potentially thousands and tens of thousands of cases that remain invisible. The actual number is unknowable and will only be seen over the course of several years.

It will be interesting to see how many more are added in the 3 month period to the next USCIS Inventory.

[happyboy]

I missed 2007 bus . I am just looking for EAD which can change my life entirely.
What are the chances to open flood gates this year or moving the prioririty date to past of my priority data june 2007

[haripathhi]

I missed 2007 bus . I am just looking for EAD which can change my life entirely.
What are the chances to open flood gates this year or moving the prioririty date to past of my priority data june 2007

Please refer to the header of this thread regarding this.

[haripathhi]

haripathhi,

I think the pertinent part of your quote is:


That leaves all the cases that have NOT had an interview at the Local Offices and therefore invisible.

The January Inventory suggested that Local Offices are only interviwing those people within a few months of the current Cut Off Date. That leaves potentially thousands and tens of thousands of cases that remain invisible. The actual number is unknowable and will only be seen over the course of several years.

It will be interesting to see how many more are added in the 3 month period to the next USCIS Inventory.

Thanks Spec, I had overlooked that part...damn....I got excited for nothing! lol.

[qesehmk]

I missed 2007 bus . I am just looking for EAD which can change my life entirely.
What are the chances to open flood gates this year or moving the prioririty date to past of my priority data june 2007

Happyboy welcome to forum. This year the chances seem slim to none to me. (others might say 20-30%). Next year the chances are very good.

I understand why you are so eager for it. Best wishes.