Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[AceMan]

My thought on per-country quota.
1.For Employment based GC, country quota doesn't belong. It doesn't make any sence. Skill/Job is irrelevant to country of birth. Country quota is against EB purpose.
2. Diversity visa has country counts. It is needed there as the purpose of the visa is diversity. Diversity visa doesn't allow countries like India/China. And I agree they should not be allowed as their large numbers do not help purpose of the DV.

It is irrelevant whether pain moves from one set of people to another. But it is relevant that birth country is wrong in EB.

Increasing GC - That is lawmakers job to define based on countries need. It may be reduced or increased based on employment need, not based on backlog size.

Employment based immigration when designed in late 80's was seen as an extension of family based. Not only the country quota, family members take nearly 60% of visa.
If you see https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat...ok/2019/table7 the actual number of Primary candidates US accepted from the entire world is.
E11/16- 4053, E12/17 - 1982, E13/18 - 9639 totals to 15,674 for EB1 primaries from entire world
E21/26 - 19834
E31/36 - 8684, E32/37 - 9733, EW3/W8 - 2322 totals to 20739

In 2019 only about 56,000 primaries from the entire world in EB quota was greened

When the rules were defined US was the unparalleled super power in the world and was the giver. Now with more than 20 trillion debt, it cannot rest on its legacy and history and with restrictive EB based immigration it cannot afford for every high paying job to leave US.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This is no chip for republicans. Wake up. Republicans sat on this Dem bill for 15 months and are sending back to house with 2 weeks remaining. Senator after senator from GOP held this up for no reason only to pass it with significant alterations with 2 weeks to go for the house session to end.

I agree, I don't think this Bill is going to pass at all.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://twitter.com/IraKurzban/statu...10125407653889

It looks like an attempt is being made to slide 1044 as part of the Omnibus spending bill. Immigration lawyers are mad, which is sometimes a good thing. I am trying to find more sources to confirm this.

For those who can't read the tweet:
Ira J. Kurzban
@IraKurzban
·
4h
Congress is about to slip in the OMNIBUS spending bill a horrible IMMIGRATION bill (HR 1044)that will end immig. through employment for decades except for Indian nationals. If they can pass bad laws like HR 1044 DEMAND inclusion of DACA/TPS NOW in Omnibus.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://twitter.com/ckuck/status/1336757834885836805

Charles Kuck saying that Zoe Lofgren has taken out the 'no harm' provisions. There is nothing out in public, so don't know where he is getting this info from.

Tweet text:
What will the now denuded HR1044 do? Here are the new wait times (at a minimum), effective immediately:

EB1 – 3 years
EB2- 16 years
EB3 -4 years

Within a decade wait times will extend to:

EB1 – 7 years
EB2- 37 years
EB3 - 11 years

Lofgren took OUT the "No-Harm" provisions.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Another tweet from Kuck, he is certainly going off the deep end to wish for the status quo to continue:

https://twitter.com/ckuck/status/1336772413032423425

#HR1044 / #S386 will retrogress worldwide #EB5 visas to 8 years immediately, and to 16 years by the end of the 2030.

[vsivarama]

Wow! Can really sense panic in the air, now. Hope it goes through and thus opening up the doors for future immigration changes. This is the key bill which will compel ROW to take notice and join in the fight instead of being on the sidelines eating pop corn while the backlogged folks despair.

[EB22010Dec]

https://twitter.com/IraKurzban/statu...10125407653889

It looks like an attempt is being made to slide 1044 as part of the Omnibus spending bill. Immigration lawyers are mad, which is sometimes a good thing. I am trying to find more sources to confirm this.

For those who can't read the tweet:
Ira J. Kurzban
@IraKurzban
·
4h
Congress is about to slip in the OMNIBUS spending bill a horrible IMMIGRATION bill (HR 1044)that will end immig. through employment for decades except for Indian nationals. If they can pass bad laws like HR 1044 DEMAND inclusion of DACA/TPS NOW in Omnibus.

When will we know the answer ?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

When will we know the answer ?

With the new CR being passed, I believe they will have until Dec 18 to hammer the deal out.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I know this is a controversial source (US Tech Workers) but they seem to have more intel than others at this point:

https://twitter.com/USTechWorkers/st...90185879736320

Sources are telling us that Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) is trying to work with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA 19th District) to insert HR1044 into an Omnibus Bill.

This is Mike Lee's DC Office number: 202-224-5444

Let his office know how you feel about this.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Siskind pushing back on Ckuck's calculations predicting doom and gloom.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1336809830225485825

You know as well as anyone that there is no real way to know the number so this is a total guess. You ought to show the math including how the suddenly available rolled over green card numbers are factored in.
5:07 PM · Dec 9, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

For example, lots of people have multiple I-140 approvals. And many people abandon their place in line. How are these factored in?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Fresh update from Siskind: Chinese exclusion has become a sticking point stalling the inclusion of HR1044 in the Omnibus bill.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1339261537035358208

As predicted, the China provision is the main sticking point preventing possible inclusion of 1044/386 per country caps language in the omnibus bill. Several dozen advocacy organizations, including a number of Asian American groups, have come out opposing that language.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

FYI, it looks like the goose is cooked as far as including 1044 is concerned.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1339312380518522882

Hearing 1044/386 isn't going to be in the omnibus because Scott refused to budge. Seems like it's over until next year. The good news is Biden has ending country caps in his immigration plan (along with early adjustment and expanding green card numbers for everyone).

[qesehmk]

Is there any other advocacy group working on country caps? If so - do contact me. I think I can help you with strategy?

Some of the current advocacy efforts come across as naive and are bound to create friction with other groups.

Those of you who followed the events of the day today, you could see opposition weaving clever narrative and coalition against this bill.

I think we can prevail over them ... so if there is another group - happy to help you out guys. This can be done without antagonizing ROW countries.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Is there any other advocacy group working on country caps? If so - do contact me. I think I can help you with strategy?

Some of the current advocacy efforts come across as naive and are bound to create friction with other groups.

Those of you who followed the events of the day today, you could see opposition weaving clever narrative and coalition against this bill.

I think we can prevail over them ... so if there is another group - happy to help you out guys. This can be done without antagonizing ROW countries.

They will definitely need your strategy in 2021 because the Covid-19 relief bill did not have the H.R 1044 in it, so we are back to square 1.

[qesehmk]

They will definitely need your strategy in 2021 because the Covid-19 relief bill did not have the H.R 1044 in it, so we are back to square 1.

I think this is very doable but somehow desi folks easily get swayed by propaganda, show too much aggression, or too much fear in dealing with different stakeholders. Happy to help any group that is working on the ground.

[alpha0]

I think this is very doable but somehow desi folks easily get swayed by propaganda, show too much aggression, or too much fear in dealing with different stakeholders. Happy to help any group that is working on the ground.

We know there is a chance that congress will be back next week to override Trump's veto of defense authorization. Also not sure what is going to happen with funding bill + covid relief bill. Since IV has not made any statement, do you all think they might still be trying to push this bill one more time if there is window of opportunity next week?

[qesehmk]

We know there is a chance that congress will be back next week to override Trump's veto of defense authorization. Also not sure what is going to happen with funding bill + covid relief bill. Since IV has not made any statement, do you all think they might still be trying to push this bill one more time if there is window of opportunity next week?

Here is a great example of how Unanimous Consent can be used as a political tool.

Pelosi on thursday is going to ask for UC for raising covid help to 2000 per person - something she always wanted but couldn't get from GOP. Trump as crazy as it gets has asked for the same after his own people negotiated the deal HE wanted.

So what does Pelosi do now? Read carefully how to read the tealeaves of American politics!!

Pelosi knows she has a chance of snowball in hell to get that 2000 from GOP. But she also wants to demonstrate to American people that she does want to give 2000 USD to families. But while doing so she does not want to throw away the existing deal that was made after painstaking efforts. After all her constituency more than GOP constituency needs whatever money comes their way.

So what does she do without risking existing deal?

She asks for Unanimous Consent over $2000 covid relief. She already has the votes in house and could have asked for a vote and passed in house. But no - she asks for UC knowing it will fail and then she has not created busy work for GOP senators who would have struck down such house bill anyway!! And thus with UC defeated, the house and senate will override Trumps COVID veto (if he vetoes - which imho he won't).

My friends that's how things work. IV are fools and have been taken for a ride over UC for S386. GOP used IV to blame Sen. Durbin and then finally passed amended HR1044 that has zero chance of passing house with 14 days remaining. They need to wake up and reconcile with this reality.

While I haven't set foot in congress or wherever - I think I know this stuff better than IV for sure. Forget IV. I do think country caps can be removed very quickly now that in principle both houses agree; one just needs to wade through procedures and torpedoes and minefields of X number of legislations their priorities and not get sucked into stupid mistakes such as UC. I am very confident this is possible and in sight.

[alpha0]

I understand.

I hope next year bill is simplified like removing country caps from say 50% of total EB numbers. Not sure whether such a bill will go to senate stand alone or say merged with some DACA provisions, but in any case will go thru regular process of committee and floor votes in senate. That will eliminate dozens of carveouts and poisons pills which were added by individual senators sometimes just with the sole purpose to kill the bill.

I dont think Biden has any plans to push for CIR next year when unemployment rates are still in 7-8% range.

[qesehmk]

I understand.

I hope next year bill is simplified like removing country caps from say 50% of total EB numbers. Not sure whether such a bill will go to senate stand alone or say merged with some DACA provisions, but in any case will go thru regular process of committee and floor votes in senate. That will eliminate dozens of carveouts and poisons pills which were added by individual senators sometimes just with the sole purpose to kill the bill.

I dont think Biden has any plans to push for CIR next year when unemployment rates are still in 7-8% range.

You are correct that it needs to be a reasonably stand alone bill. I think it is possible when there is that much intensity around the topic and interests are aligned.

So the trick is to align interests.

Biden has ton of things to undo from Trump era before he does CIR. But the rate of unemployment is not necessarily at cross with immigration. Rather immigration helps reduce unemployment when used properly as an economic policy tool.

[qesehmk]

See what I was saying earlier today?

GOP killed the house bid for Trump's ASK of 2000 USD COVID relief.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/24/politics/house-vote-stimulus-checks-government/index.html



Thus one uses UC either to pass mundane stuff OR to strategically kill a bill.

GOP used UC on S386 as a way to blame Sen Durbin.

[Noesis]

So true; the minute the chances of getting Amended HR1044 passed slipped away; so many started blaming Lofgren left and right (see twitter). Same happened earlier with Durbin and Scott as well. I am not sure what could be achieved by humiliating someone like that; thin line between right to question and abusing someone. We all Desis would need to understand this if they want the new admin to pass a CIR then it would only happen by not harming the public image of those who hold the power to pass or not pass the bill.

[qesehmk]

So true; the minute the chances of getting Amended HR1044 passed slipped away; so many started blaming Lofgren left and right (see twitter). Same happened earlier with Durbin and Scott as well. I am not sure what could be achieved by humiliating someone like that; thin line between right to question and abusing someone. We all Desis would need to understand this if they want the new admin to pass a CIR then it would only happen by not harming the public image of those who hold the power to pass or not pass the bill.

hobnobing with American right by Indian right wing is counter productive to EB-I backlogged folks because American right wing is utterly anti-immigrant and a lot of times outright racist. But fanatics have deep entrenched views and don't understand don't care

Lofgren is the very first politician who spoke against country caps. Ever. And I mean it. She cared when nobody else did.

[vedu]

:-D Give Biden time to settle in. It is not even 2 days since he became the President. Let us look at the April bulletin to see if the new administration changes are up to the speed with expectation. EB1 has reached January 2020, considering the low applicant resultant of covid impact from March 2020, Eb1 India can be current by April 2021 bulletin.

We should blame this on the old admin and wait for the next visa bulletin. But don't worry, even if visas are wasted this year, the new admin has plans to recapture all the lost visas at a future date! In fact, even that won't be necessary. They are working on big things for us. Didn't you see that new shiny immigration bill? As people are saying...the country quotas will be gone in 2 years and there will be no backlog in 5 years from now. Do you know what all this is called? It's Fugazi.

[Zenzone]

We should blame this on the old admin and wait for the next visa bulletin. But don't worry, even if visas are wasted this year, the new admin has plans to recapture all the lost visas at a future date! In fact, even that won't be necessary. They are working on big things for us. Didn't you see that new shiny immigration bill? As people are saying...the country quotas will be gone in 2 years and there will be no backlog in 5 years from now. Do you know what all this is called? It's Fugazi.

What was the alternative my friend!? We are atleast in this situation wherein we are talking about many positive immi. news overall....I see that as a blessing as such. I personally never thought I would get my EAD in 2021 and here I am....if we came this far there is no reason to lose hope now! Yes I try my best to not see the glass half empty no matter what

[qesehmk]

What was the alternative my friend!? We are atleast in this situation wherein we are talking about many positive immi. news overall....I see that as a blessing as such. I personally never thought I would get my EAD in 2021 and here I am....if we came this far there is no reason to lose hope now! Yes I try my best to not see the glass half empty no matter what

Indeed! Biden showed his commitment on day 1. We shouldn't underestimate nor overestimate. It's a big thing that first time ever a US president says country caps need to go. It will be uphill battle but I think it will be done within 2 years. Backlogs as we know it will go away in five years after country caps will be gone. After that all countries will be more or less on the same footing within each category. But it neither is going to happen automatically nor immediately.

All these GOP minded backlogged folks who had pinned their hopes on Trump and GOP, I challenge you to go and build support among GOP for country caps removal.