EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[evoori]

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

How come we don't have his number ? Can I have his direct number ? I want to know when 09262007 will be current..

[qesehmk]

Teddy 1 sep 2007 is end of my comfort zone for SFM. Anything after that must retrogress. That is the reason I liked the date. But as qbf pointed out it could be false. Rodnyb is my old friend from IV Say hello to him.

Q Thanks, I believe you have been very consistent in predicting the higher end, this date if true matches it. It will be a dream come true for all PWMB's. This date if true may not be SFM though.

Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..

immitrickz, last time your source said there won't be any movement for August bulletin and that didn't pan out quite well. But still thought if there is any information it would be useful to people.

[sc09876]

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

[qesehmk]

You made my day!!

I always get a feeling that USCIS has a Sholay coin (both sides heads). It is always USCIS wins because they always call heads.. And look at this data '09/01/2007' this looks like the coin didnt fall either side its standing still vertical to the ground.. na udhar ka na eedhar ka...

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys, there could be few heart-aches here...with heart swinging like pendulum from both extremes.

please post ONLY credible information and limit the swings if possible

qblogfan, I respect you commenting very quickly without leading into much hype. TeddyK same with you...man hang in there...we will be through.

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

Leo I can really understand your feelings, hoping for the best my friend. Thanks to our friend qblogfan for putting all speculation to rest so quickly.

[gchopeful123]

evoori,

My PD is 09/24/2007 Let's hope we get thru today!!!

How come we don't have his number ? Can I have his direct number ? I want to know when 09262007 will be current..

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy 1 sep 2007 is end of my comfort zone for SFM. Anything after that must retrogress. That is the reason I liked the date. But as qbf pointed out it could be false. Rodnyb is my old friend from IV Say hello to him.

Q I will go by our friend qbf on this, we accept his authority. However if rodnyb's news really turns out to be true I will give him a hi5.

[immitrickz]

Thanks for the Reminder !! To be fair to my source, the movement differed by a month (Which definitely means a lot to most of us here) compared to huge forward movements predicted earlier for that bulletin . And no, i don't have any information to share this time around...

immitrickz, last time your source said there won't be any movement for August bulletin and that didn't pan out quite well. But still thought if there is any information it would be useful to people.

[skpanda]

Have you heard of 'spillover' that has been happening for last few years in EB2ICs favor? USCIS will need inventory. Please PM me if you want to discuss further on this...

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

[Nishant_imt]

guys, did any of you had an DHS officer visit at your workplace regarding the H1B visa? Did they contact your consulting company later? what was the outcome?

[imechanix]

This feel like the last over of India Vs. Pakistan (USCIS) match. The excitement is crazy.

[immitrickz]

lol...so true..

This feel like the last over of India Vs. Pakistan (USCIS) match. The excitement is crazy.

[indiasunil]

We will see sep bulletin match statistics around 3:50 pm et .. :-)

[gc_usa]

guys, did any of you had an DHS officer visit at your workplace regarding the H1B visa? Did they contact your consulting company later? what was the outcome?

Yes they did at my workplace and I am full time so except checking some facts nothing happened.

[immitrickz]

Well..The trick came from you this time around.. playing the victim card ..

dude... really... usually i ignore comments like yours but, you got lucky...

I dont think i am a guru/pandit as i know more of this GC stuff... i just post what i think and what i feel... if it's blathering to you...it's ok dost... it's a free country after all... atleast i am not saying u have to do what i say because i am a guru/pandit... in the end when i go out... i am just a normal desi working my way up... so who cares abt guru/pandit titles...right...

one down... :-)...what your next trick ;-)..chil maro dost... jiyoo aur jeene doo...

[gc_usa]

This bulletin will be a big bumper I see people having very high hope and in the end it will be little movement with no comment...

[kd2008]

There are currently 280 users online. 43 members and 237 guests

We still have a long way to go to break the record of 387.

[gc_usa]

There are currently 280 users online. 43 members and 237 guests

We still have a long way to go to break the record of 387.

It will be around when bulletin get published. not now

[qesehmk]

Error on prediction is acceptable/understandable depending on the magnitude. But error on "insider information" hurts credibility. Wish your source provides first credible information sometime soon in future.

Thanks for the Reminder !! To be fair to my source, the movement differed by a month (Which definitely means a lot to most of us here) compared to huge forward movements predicted earlier for that bulletin . And no, i don't have any information to share this time around...

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

I think you laid it out quite well. I agree with you a lot on this. The only thing is .. USCIS knows that every year there is Spillover and so they need to move dates by that much at a min to not let those visas go waste. Thats why BTM. SFM is what otherwise they do every month - move the dates by 0-1 weeks!

[jackbrown_890]

We will see sep bulletin match statistics around 3:50 pm et .. :-)

It feels like a long test match.
Lunch break..now
i guess, VB will be released after Tea in 4th session.

[ifaith]

very good point. H1 is automatically cancelled. Then does he have AP. I believe AP should be ok, as that's the very purpose of AP, to allow for travel during the period waiting for AOS to be completed. If he does not have AP, then immigrant visa stamp as superdesi said. Actually the immigrant visa stamp seems to be the most safe way. You can also try putting this question on Ron Gotcher's forum. Or best, take least time allowed by a lawyer, pay him, and ask the question, for sure shot answer.

Thanks superdesi and nishant2000
He does not have a AP or EAD as he just applied for AOS on June 3rd and the green card came before AP could come.

[nishant2200]

This bulletin will be a big bumper I see people having very high hope and in the end it will be little movement with no comment...

if that happens, still at the end of FY, more data points will be obtained, and we will see if we could have done better in analysis, and re-calibrate ourselves.

Even last time, hopes were high, but small movement with no comments. But we survived!

[immitrickz]

Point taken..I wish my source is Mr.Charles Oppenheim

Error on prediction is acceptable/understandable depending on the magnitude. But error on "insider information" hurts credibility. Wish your source provides first credible information sometime soon in future.

[qesehmk]

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)



Product Page views Clicks Page CTR CPC Page RPM Estimated earnings
AdSense for Content 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39

[tiger_of_web]

I just get a feeling that there wont be any BTM in this bulletin. Also, i feel that DS under CO operates differently. They dont like to move the dates and then retrogress. One small movement to get new applications will happen somewhere in May/June 2012 which will account for the expected spillover for that year and wont retrogress back again. USCIS is very capable of processing 485's in 30-45 days. Another movement can happen in July/Aug 2012 to make sure that visa numbers are not wasted. I think going forward this is the fashion in which we will see the DS operates. Its good in a way, brings some predictability into the system.