EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[skpanda]

Dates of filing stopped fro January bulletin
We r so tensed up
Did not get i485 receipt yet
PD oct 2010 eb3

Did you try USCIS chat service to get your receipt nbrs?

[longwaitgigu]

Yes, no numbers as of yesterday

[BigAnt]

Just for a Datapoint:

1. We (my wife and I), applied for I485, I765 and I131 on 29th Oct 2020.
2. No receipts so far.
3. I contacted USCIS chat. Provide all the details including A#.
4. They confirmed that they received my application and sent receipts on 17th Dec 2020.
5. They gave me the receipt numbers for the above applications.
6. One observation is that the receipt numbers start with MSC. (Missourie Service Center). I have never seen MSC in my 16 years of dealing with USCIS.
7. I tried to check the processing time in USCIS website and could not find MSC/Missourie.

Any body has any inputs on MSC?

Thanks!

Sorry for asking a naïve question, I filed AOS/EAD/AP for the first time in Oct, so where would I get A# you mentioned in your post? Seems like I need this handy before I can contact USCIS chat to get my receipt number. .

[incredible]

Sorry for asking a naïve question, I filed AOS/EAD/AP for the first time in Oct, so where would I get A# you mentioned in your post? Seems like I need this handy before I can contact USCIS chat to get my receipt number. .

It should be on approval document of I140 (797 should have it)

[incredible]

Yes, no numbers as of yesterday

I have heard from a lot of people that they have not received the receipt numbers yet. I think goes back to previous post about slowing things down. It could be because of lack of resources or just plainly going slow, per proclamation. Hang in there and you should get it soon.

[Blue_fairy]

FA
EB2 I - 8th oct 2009
EB3 I - 22nd Mar 2010

FAD
EB2 l - 15th May 2011
EB3 I - 1st Jan 2014

[mohan_jgd]

Yes. Just use the chat service... keep typing agent... they will connect to live agent. Give your A#. They ask for all other demographic info such as name, address etc. Then they give the receipt numbers.

Thanks for the tip. Will try that.

[suninphx]

FA
EB2 I - 8th oct 2009
EB3 I - 22nd Mar 2010

FAD
EB2 l - 15th May 2011
EB3 I - 1st Jan 2014

All geared toward giving back as much visas possible to FB quota. And may be by design.

[EB22010Dec]

All geared toward giving back as much visas possible to FB quota. And may be by design.

But they don't go back to Family. It does not work like that as some guru mentioned few months ago.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

All geared toward giving back as much visas possible to FB quota. And may be by design.

It has been explained a few times here, spilled over visas from FB to EB cannot go back to FB unless there is some change in law.

They are trying to make EB1 current, which will help EB2 down the road. More importantly their freeze on accepting DF from Jan onwards could be an indicator that they have enough applications in the hopper to actually start approving cases. If we start seeing more GC approvals for EB2 in late 2009-early 2010, it could be an indicator that they are serious about using the spillover, if not we are pretty screwed.

[vsivarama]

They are trying to make EB1 current, which will help EB2 down the road. More importantly their freeze on accepting DF from Jan onwards could be an indicator that they have enough applications in the hopper to actually start approving cases. If we start seeing more GC approvals for EB2 in late 2009-early 2010, it could be an indicator that they are serious about using the spillover, if not we are pretty screwed.

Freezing the acceptance via DF charts looks random to me. A lot of people are yet to get receipts for applications filed in October (myself included). How do you think they came to the conclusion that they have received enough petitions? By counting the number of mails received?

[suninphx]

But they don't go back to Family. It does not work like that as some guru mentioned few months ago.

Okay.. thanks for that info.

[AceMan]

It has been explained a few times here, spilled over visas from FB to EB cannot go back to FB unless there is some change in law.

They are trying to make EB1 current, which will help EB2 down the road. More importantly their freeze on accepting DF from Jan onwards could be an indicator that they have enough applications in the hopper to actually start approving cases. If we start seeing more GC approvals for EB2 in late 2009-early 2010, it could be an indicator that they are serious about using the spillover, if not we are pretty screwed.

Eb1 will become current within the next couple of bulletins as it pretty much sure the applicants on that side would be very minimum beyond April 2020. In the mean time the centers would have enough time to consolidate the applications they have received so far in October till December. There are lot of people yet to receive the receipts, and apparently they would have received enough numbers so far for this FY.

For Eb3 they have applications from 2 years back till 1st April 2010. I thought they would hit 1st April this bulletin, but that is going to be the date for next bulletin.

It is obvious with filing dates moved to Jan 2015, they would have more than 100,000 EB3 downgraded applications. With the new admin I hope we can see the demand data again which was last released in July 2018.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Freezing the acceptance via DF charts looks random to me. A lot of people are yet to get receipts for applications filed in October (myself included). How do you think they came to the conclusion that they have received enough petitions? By counting the number of mails received?

I am being very honest with my assumption here, but if we can track the application package as being delivered, they should too. And the day the package delivered is obviously critically important from the 180 day clock perspective, so I believe they will be tracking that, just that they have not been able to process all that for the receipts. So they should have a fair indicator of how many applications they have received and do some basic math.

[vsivarama]

I am being very honest with my assumption here, but if we can track the application package as being delivered, they should too. And the day the package delivered is obviously critically important from the 180 day clock perspective, so I believe they will be tracking that, just that they have not been able to process all that for the receipts. So they should have a fair indicator of how many applications they have received and do some basic math.

That makes sense. Did not think about the 180 day rule. They may have a basic tracking mechanism.

[Spectator]

The "soft" Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2021 have been published by DOS here.

For EB they are the following:

Preference All Countries Worldwide
E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602

Total ----------- 18,340 - 262,000

*The EW category is currently entitled to up to 10,000 of this total.

[skpanda]

The "soft" Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2021 have been published by DOS here.

For EB they are the following:

Preference All Countries Worldwide
E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602

Total ----------- 18,340 - 262,000

*The EW category is currently entitled to up to 10,000 of this total.

Thanks Spec!

I do think that USCIS will make every effort to allocate the extra GCs. At this point they are focussing on sorting and documenting all applications. Also giving GCs to existing applicants till April 2020 may generate negative attention while the current admin is in power.

If this theory is correct, they will be quitely processing new applications while preparing to give GCs to the folks who are already adjudicated. Sometime around June, they will open the flood gates for the GCs allocation. By that time the new admin would have settled in and also may have provided direction.

"Hope is a good thing!"

[qesehmk]

The "soft" Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2021 have been published by DOS here.

For EB they are the following:

Preference All Countries Worldwide
E1 --------------- 5,246 -- 74,932
E2 --------------- 5,245 -- 74,932
E3/EW ------------ 5,245 -- 74,932*
E4/SR ------------ 1,302 -- 18,602
E5 --------------- 1,302 -- 18,602

Total ----------- 18,340 - 262,000

*The EW category is currently entitled to up to 10,000 of this total.

Thanks Spec. I was waiting for this.

[AceMan]

Thanks Spec!

I do think that USCIS will make every effort to allocate the extra GCs. At this point they are focussing on sorting and documenting all applications. Also giving GCs to existing applicants till April 2020 may generate negative attention while the current admin is in power.

If this theory is correct, they will be quitely processing new applications while preparing to give GCs to the folks who are already adjudicated. Sometime around June, they will open the flood gates for the GCs allocation. By that time the new admin would have settled in and also may have provided direction.

"Hope is a good thing!"

If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.

[android09]

If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.

Let’s hope. Even then the potential of massive wastages loom large.

[Moveon]

If the mandatory interview is tossed out, then the chances of utilizing the GC numbers is very high for 2021.

Is interview mandatory for all AOS or is it exempt for people who applied before ~2015. We applied in 2012 and got our EADs back then EB2-I .
Would we need to appear for an interview ?

[getsaby]

Hello

Can anyone please guide me on which address to use to submit I131 and I765 together for the first time?
I485 receipt starts with MSC% and we are based in NJ.

Thanks!

[AceMan]

Is interview mandatory for all AOS or is it exempt for people who applied before ~2015. We applied in 2012 and got our EADs back then EB2-I .
Would we need to appear for an interview ?

You guys appear to be among the forgotten lot by USCIS. The list Spec provided had more than 5200 visas for India in Eb2 which they could have applied already till December 2009 end. There are about 8000 total people with pending AOS in Eb2 till May 2010.

Current actions by USCIS appears to let field offices to waive AOS interviews depending on the local situation.

[ak7419]

You guys appear to be among the forgotten lot by USCIS. The list Spec provided had more than 5200 visas for India in Eb2 which they could have applied already till December 2009 end. There are about 8000 total people with pending AOS in Eb2 till May 2010.

Current actions by USCIS appears to let field offices to waive AOS interviews depending on the local situation.

We definitely are the forgotten lot

I am still waiting for RFE as if it were my green card. Have been current for the past two months.

[mitul75]

You guys appear to be among the forgotten lot by USCIS. The list Spec provided had more than 5200 visas for India in Eb2 which they could have applied already till December 2009 end. There are about 8000 total people with pending AOS in Eb2 till May 2010.

Current actions by USCIS appears to let field offices to waive AOS interviews depending on the local situation.

You raise an interesting point. Based on how dates are progressing, I think CO is taking an extremely conservative approach, by assuming there will be no vertical/horizontal SO and distributing the 5,200 visas for EB2-I in a prorated manner. Sadly, if this approach doesn’t change soon enough, they are bound to waste visas at the end of the FY.