EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[mitul75]

Guys,

I am an avid follower of this forum and appreciate the contribution from all of you that helps me stay informed in my path to GC. I did some research on how many green cards are issued in the various employment preference categories by country of birth, and found a disturbing trend for EB2 visas issued for people whose county of birth is India. Between 2012 and 2015 EB2-I got 15k+ visas each year on an average, which went down to 3.3k on an average between 2016 and 2019, a drop of 80%!!!

Based on this, I think granting EB2 visas is not a priority for the current admin. Most stunning is the stat that only 2,604 GCs were issued in EB2-I category for the whole of 2019, which means they did not meet the 7% country quota of 2800+ visas for that year. This also leads me to believe that most of the 2021 spillover visas for Eb2/3 may just get wasted, unless the new admin takes an about turn and follows the policy of Obama admin (see data for 2012-2015). I welcome your thoughts/comments.

source: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../LPR/LPRcounty

==========================
Year EB1-I EB2-I EB3-I (Skilled)
----- ------ ------ ----------------
2012 8,152 17,878 2,571
2013 8,253 15,693 6,862
2014 11,314 21,024 3,102
2015 10,527 6,853 5,695
2016 9,289 3,823 3,986
2017 11,122 2,843 5,414
2018 9,676 3,894 4,891
2019 8,001 2,604 4,135

Indis EB Visas Trend.png

[gcconnect]

Guys,

I am an avid follower of this forum and appreciate the contribution from all of you that helps me stay informed in my path to GC. I did some research on how many green cards are issued in the various employment preference categories by country of birth, and found a disturbing trend for EB2 visas issued for people whose county of birth is India. Between 2012 and 2015 EB2-I got 15k+ visas each year on an average, which went down to 3.3k on an average between 2016 and 2019, a drop of 80%!!!

Based on this, I think granting EB2 visas is not a priority for the current admin. Most stunning is the stat that only 2,604 GCs were issued in EB2-I category for the whole of 2019, which means they did not meet the 7% country quota of 2800+ visas for that year. This also leads me to believe that most of the 2021 spillover visas for Eb2/3 may just get wasted, unless the new admin takes an about turn and follows the policy of Obama admin (see data for 2012-2015). I welcome your thoughts/comments.

source: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../LPR/LPRcounty

==========================
Year EB1-I EB2-I EB3-I (Skilled)
----- ------ ------ ----------------
2012 8,152 17,878 2,571
2013 8,253 15,693 6,862
2014 11,314 21,024 3,102
2015 10,527 6,853 5,695
2016 9,289 3,823 3,986
2017 11,122 2,843 5,414
2018 9,676 3,894 4,891
2019 8,001 2,604 4,135

Indis EB Visas Trend.png

May be Dumb question. Help me understand

I am not good at numbers. I have seen these kind of year wise numbers earlier and with following this forum (Thanks to Gurus), came to know that those years got spill over which allocates extra for EB2I or EB3I and when no spill over only 7%.

So, with more or less 7% every year as per Law, what exactly happening to EB2I or EB3I?

Are these categories supposed to get more spillover every year which is not getting?

[mitul75]

May be Dumb question. Help me understand

I am not good at numbers. I have seen these kind of year wise numbers earlier and with following this forum (Thanks to Gurus), came to know that those years got spill over which allocates extra for EB2I or EB3I and when no spill over only 7%.

So, with more or less 7% every year as per Law, what exactly happening to EB2I or EB3I?

Are these categories supposed to get more spillover every year which is not getting?

I think they get a lot more horizontal spillover each year than what’s been used. Again this is purely based on historical trend. It may well be that ROW has consumed a lot more of these visas over the last few years, but that too does not explain the huge consistent drop in EB2-I. EB1-I has been the recipient of 10k plus visas each year, which is expected given the demand from EB1C. But the spillovers from other categories are just not being allocated to EB2, either due to lack of resources or due to lack of will, or both. I may be totally off base in this analysis, so would like to hear from gurus.

[rabp77]

Things may not be that bad. Slow movement so far may only mean horizontal spillover has not been applied yet. If that's the case, once it starts getting applied, the pace of movement should increase.

[inspired_p]

Things may not be that bad. Slow movement so far may only mean horizontal spillover has not been applied yet. If that's the case, once it starts getting applied, the pace of movement should increase.

I feel the same .. they are still looking country cap per quarter limit

[rocketfast]

According to the link at [1], USCIS approved 73,000 I-485 petitions in the first 3 quarters of FY 2020.

[1]: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...s_FY2020Q3.pdf

[AceMan]

I think you guys missed two articles that came out quoting Jessica Vaughan. I found the CNN one. I think there was one in Hill also. They said that the admin is calling conservatives asking them what can they do before leaving office. Mind you that DT fired Christopher Krebs for going against him. I think it is reasonable that DOS is trying to stay low. There is no check-in with CO articles recently. No word of what happened to the 25K GCs that were announced in June 2020.

The article offers nothing new other than few quotes and wish list.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If you anecdotally look at trackitt, there are a number of people who are still waiting for receipts for filings as early as second-third week of Oct. It's very hit and miss as some who filed in third or fourth week have receipts. So safe to say, USCIS as usual are flying blind without a good handle on the number of applications, especially downgrades. So no idea how and when they would have a proper count and accordingly start moving FADs and start issuing GCs.

[AceMan]

If you anecdotally look at trackitt, there are a number of people who are still waiting for receipts for filings as early as second-third week of Oct. It's very hit and miss as some who filed in third or fourth week have receipts. So safe to say, USCIS as usual are flying blind without a good handle on the number of applications, especially downgrades. So no idea how and when they would have a proper count and accordingly start moving FADs and start issuing GCs.

They have enough Eb2 pending files till May 2010 and Eb3 had reached April 2010 couple of years back itself.

The speed at which the EB1 India has moved over the 6-7 bulletins, shows they can move if they want.

[ak7419]

They have enough Eb2 pending files till May 2010 and Eb3 had reached April 2010 couple of years back itself.

The speed at which the EB1 India has moved over the 6-7 bulletins, shows they can move if they want.

Agree that they have enough EB2I files until May 2010 but TSC seems to have stopped processing 485 files. Does anyone know where they are spending their manpower on, these days? NSC seems to be doing okay.

[mitul75]

Here's some additional data that I compiled. Comparing the data from 2012-2015 and 2016-2019 and taking an average of the total between these 2 segments, we are getting the following 3 factors that are primarily contributing to the huge drop in EB2-I visas on a YoY basis:
-- 16% increase in EB2 ROW visas
-- 24% increase in EB visas through CP
-- 71% increase in visa wastage

Year EB2-I EB2-ROW EB(AOS) EB(CP) Wasted Visas (based on 140k limit)
================================
2012 17,878 13,028 106,968 19,137 13,895
2013 15,693 23,554 119,432 21,144 -
2014 21,024 11,198 114,347 21,365 4,288
2015 6,853 18,888 106,393 21,613 11,994
2016 3,823 18,234 100,108 25,056 14,836
2017 2,843 20,031 101,020 23,814 15,166
2018 3,894 19,252 100,885 27,345 11,770
2019 2,604 19,872 101,890 28,538 9,572

So even with consulates closed at least until February 2021, there's a good chance of spillover visas getting wasted no matter what. Again, this might change dramatically with the new admin and things will start improving from day 1, or it may be too late if they wait till Q3/Q4 of this FY.

[rocketfast]

I do believe that we need to organize and open a line of communication with Zoe Lofgren's office to atleast make her aware that USCIS's current speed will lead to large wastage.

[srimurthy]

May be Dumb question. Help me understand

I am not good at numbers. I have seen these kind of year wise numbers earlier and with following this forum (Thanks to Gurus), came to know that those years got spill over which allocates extra for EB2I or EB3I and when no spill over only 7%.

So, with more or less 7% every year as per Law, what exactly happening to EB2I or EB3I?

Are these categories supposed to get more spillover every year which is not getting?

I may not be able to give you a complete picture. But there are multiple factors that come in play every year.
We had EB1C filing increasing between 2012 and 2018 where international managers on both H1 and L1 could file and get the GCs with in 6 months to start with and then that response times increased with more backlog applications.
Also we had a good spill across from EB2 ROW during those years for EB2I and spill over from EB1 as the usage was not that high. Once EB1 I and C started getting backlogged the spillover to EB2 either stopped or reduced.

[srimurthy]

Here's some additional data that I compiled. Comparing the data from 2012-2015 and 2016-2019 and taking an average of the total between these 2 segments, we are getting the following 3 factors that are primarily contributing to the huge drop in EB2-I visas on a YoY basis:
-- 16% increase in EB2 ROW visas
-- 24% increase in EB visas through CP
-- 71% increase in visa wastage

Year EB2-I EB2-ROW EB(AOS) EB(CP) Wasted Visas (based on 140k limit)
================================
2012 17,878 13,028 106,968 19,137 13,895
2013 15,693 23,554 119,432 21,144 -
2014 21,024 11,198 114,347 21,365 4,288
2015 6,853 18,888 106,393 21,613 11,994
2016 3,823 18,234 100,108 25,056 14,836
2017 2,843 20,031 101,020 23,814 15,166
2018 3,894 19,252 100,885 27,345 11,770
2019 2,604 19,872 101,890 28,538 9,572

So even with consulates closed at least until February 2021, there's a good chance of spillover visas getting wasted no matter what. Again, this might change dramatically with the new admin and things will start improving from day 1, or it may be too late if they wait till Q3/Q4 of this FY.

Having applications with a 485 filed in 2012 for EB2I and still not process, having the visa wastage every year is what really hurts and that is what should not have happened.

[mitul75]

Agree completely. What can change things for the current FY are 2 things -
1. Fewer Consular Processing & fewer ROW demand for the rest of FY'21 due to COVID and the time to get everyone vaccinated
2. Intent to not waste visas and speed things up in EB2/3 lines - this is most important, since with the right intent they are fully capable of approving 20-30k EB2s in a single year as seen in the past. If Biden's admin gets rid of the interview process, that will speed things up dramatically.

[ak7419]

Agree completely. What can change things for the current FY are 2 things -
1. Fewer Consular Processing & fewer ROW demand for the rest of FY'21 due to COVID and the time to get everyone vaccinated
2. Intent to not waste visas and speed things up in EB2/3 lines - this is most important, since with the right intent they are fully capable of approving 20-30k EB2s in a single year as seen in the past. If Biden's admin gets rid of the interview process, that will speed things up dramatically.

I don't think interviews are delaying the process in short term. We still have substantial number of applicants who need to get approved even though they were/are current since three months. What is causing the delay?

[mitul75]

I don't think interviews are delaying the process in short term. We still have substantial number of applicants who need to get approved even though they were/are current since three months. What is causing the delay?

I guess this is the same trend we've seen in the past several months, right? Moving the dates conservatively by 2-3 days to 2-3 weeks at a time. Logically speaking, they may have assumed that EB2-I gets around 5,500 visas this year including SO and assuming no vertical or horizontal spills from other EB categories and hence moving the dates cautiously. That's the worst case scenario, and if that happens, that would perhaps move the dates to the end of 2009 at best by end of FY-21.

But realistically speaking, they'll find a huge number of unused visas in Q4 due to point #1 above, and then they won't have enough time to reallocate those visas. Jan bulletin will give us a clear indication how they want to move the dates in Q2 & Q3. I don't expect anything dramatic happening in the first few months of Biden presidency, so without a course correction as early as January, we may be looking at more visa wastage.

[AceMan]

I don't think interviews are delaying the process in short term. We still have substantial number of applicants who need to get approved even though they were/are current since three months. What is causing the delay?

The objective of the interview was to avoid giving GC to people who have abandoned the process and moved on. However it does really slow down the process, back in 2012 my co worker had his date current for Jan 2012 bulletin and he got his GC by March 2012. Those time lines are un achievable anymore with interview

[idliman]

The objective of the interview was to avoid giving GC to people who have abandoned the process and moved on. However it does really slow down the process, back in 2012 my co worker had his date current for Jan 2012 bulletin and he got his GC by March 2012. Those time lines are un achievable anymore with interview

USCIS has been turned into an enforcement agency instead of a service agency. The processes have been designed to slow down the approval process in conformance with the objectives of the DT administration. After Jan 20, DHS will be run by a Cuban immigrant who was heading the USCIS when DACA was formulated. I am sure they will have the means and staff to undo the road blocks crafted by the DT admin. Everything from Supp-J, interview mandate, expiry of medicals, public charge, etc., is designed to slow down the process. I am especially mad at how the Supp-J was designed to force people to go back the the company attorneys. Previously I-485 was an individual petition.

[qesehmk]

USCIS has been turned into an enforcement agency instead of a service agency. The processes have been designed to slow down the approval process in conformance with the objectives of the DT administration.

Very well said!

[ak7419]

USCIS has been turned into an enforcement agency instead of a service agency. The processes have been designed to slow down the approval process in conformance with the objectives of the DT administration. After Jan 20, DHS will be run by a Cuban immigrant who was heading the USCIS when DACA was formulated. I am sure they will have the means and staff to undo the road blocks crafted by the DT admin. Everything from Supp-J, interview mandate, expiry of medicals, public charge, etc., is designed to slow down the process. I am especially mad at how the Supp-J was designed to force people to go back the the company attorneys. Previously I-485 was an individual petition.

I am afraid we will not see any changes for legal immigration. If at all, they will take time to implement them.

[AceMan]

USCIS has been turned into an enforcement agency instead of a service agency. The processes have been designed to slow down the approval process in conformance with the objectives of the DT administration. After Jan 20, DHS will be run by a Cuban immigrant who was heading the USCIS when DACA was formulated. I am sure they will have the means and staff to undo the road blocks crafted by the DT admin. Everything from Supp-J, interview mandate, expiry of medicals, public charge, etc., is designed to slow down the process. I am especially mad at how the Supp-J was designed to force people to go back the the company attorneys. Previously I-485 was an individual petition.

Let us not push everything to Trump. Expired medicals were a norm during Obama times too. The employee employer relationship was during that time. The introduction of filing dates without any worthwhile movement for 5 years was under his admin. The watered down H4 EAD and nothing for kids was his handout. Kids aging out due to oversight or design of not accepting filing date again by Obama.

[idliman]

Let us not push everything to Trump. Expired medicals were a norm during Obama times too. The employee employer relationship was during that time. The introduction of filing dates without any worthwhile movement for 5 years was under his admin. The watered down H4 EAD and nothing for kids was his handout. Kids aging out due to oversight or design of not accepting filing date again by Obama.

Ace, after being at this "Trishanku Swarga" status (EAD/AP), I am starting to get tired of this process. I agree with most of your views above. In my opinion the single thing that messed up EB2I folks is the introduction of the Dual VB dates (DF/FA) by the Obama admin. I was cheering for it when it was announced and many years older, now I look back and reflect the harm it has done. In simpler words it made sure that spillover was systematically denied to India folks. Kids age-out is a greater sin than DACA. I am sure the JB admin will change the rule-book to include the DF dates. Immigration is very complicated. After being in the queue for so long, I realize that small things can have unintended consequences. The consulate closure unexpectedly now allowed many folks till 2015 to attain the EAD/AP status. I supported JB mainly for the reason that his admin will issue as many GCs as possible without the wastage that you expect from DT admin. Time only will tell if we were right to support our candidates. Even though EAD/AP Trishanku status is fine for a while, after 8+ years many will start getting tired of it.

[ak7419]

Have you maintained H1-B for the last 8 years?

I did until last year. so, for about 7 years post EAD!

[Moveon]

Have you maintained H1-B for the last 8 years?

As humans, we all get bored with "status quo" . When on an L1 , you hope to just get an HIB lottery . After that you get the HI , you tell yourself that an EAD is good enough as your are very loosely connected to an employer after 180 days. But then with the renewals of EAD every two years and AP every year plus sitting secondary immigration for 3-4 hrs you long for a GC . Once on GC, you want citizenship as that liberates you from all this mess. Its a long journey , but after a while you want change where ever you are .
About the movement of dates if Trump concedes by Dec 5th we could have dates moving from the next bulletin as the departments will have more autonomy . Else we will need to wait for Biden administration to staff the agencies and give them the green signal.