Stop counting? Many states can't start counting postal ballots until after the election is over. Are you talking about a multiple re-count scenario like how it happened with Bush Vs. Gore?Originally Posted by qesehmk
Stop counting? Many states can't start counting postal ballots until after the election is over. Are you talking about a multiple re-count scenario like how it happened with Bush Vs. Gore?
Actual Language - For important reasons, most States, including Wisconsin, require absentee ballots to be received by election day, not just mailed by election day. Those States want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election. And those States also want to be able to definitively announce the results of the election on election night, or as soon as possible thereafter. Moreover, particularly in a Presidential election, counting all the votes quickly can help the State promptly resolve any disputes, address any need for recounts, and begin the process of canvassing and certifying the election results in an expeditious manner. See 3 U. S. C. §5. The States are aware of the risks described by Professor Pildes: “[L]ate-arriving ballots open up one of the greatest risks of what might, in our era of hyperpolarized political parties and existential politics, destabilize the election result. If the apparent winner the morning after the election ends up losing due to late-arriving ballots, charges of a rigged election could explode.” Pildes, How to Accommodate a Massive Surge in Absentee Voting, U. Chi. L. Rev. Online (June 26, 2020) (online source archived at www.supremecourt.gov). The “longer after Election Day any significant changes in vote totals take place, the greater the risk that the losing side will cry that the election has been stolen.”
Florida like yes and even beyond because Cavanaugh on one had is defending State's role under Article II of constitution but on the other hand is saying States can't change rules too much for federal elections which to me sounds like he will strike down any votes counting for votes cast based on any extended rules by the state.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Possibe. But to me this election likely will be decided based on the votes received by close of polls on the election day. If it gets to a razor thin margin on swing states, we are on for a spectacle but that's unlikely it will go down to the wire unless polls have a higher margin of error than in 2016.
Agree it’s a 50-50 tie in battleground states. Unless it’s a blow victory which I really doubt it is going to be this will end up in courts and the R’s have massive advantage(s) in that scenario.
That's the republican argument and hope to disenfranchise democratic vote which is overwhelming going to be by mail.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Yes. But the votes received (including mail-in ballots) by the close of the election day have to be counted and yesterday's SC's Wisconsin verdict affirms it. So I'm not sure how this disenfranchises the Dem base from voting unless a vast majority of these mail-in voters were planning to post-mark their ballots only on the election day or a couple of days before for the most part. Somehow I feel that its an unfounded anxiety given the strong mail-in voting numbers thus far showing people are voting in historic volumes. On the contrary, if there are thousands of ballots delivered late (especially in swing states) that muddles the water greatly though and you can't deny that risk altogether. If there is a blue wave as predicted then all these minor affairs become moot. My two cents!
Last edited by Zenzone; 10-27-2020 at 01:44 PM.
Congrats Q on becoming the citizen. It has been an hectic month filing, adding documentation, filling 944, deciphering what to put and what not and finally got the package mailed out today.
The hope would be to getting greened within a year or 2 and vote for the elections in 2028.
Congrats to you Aceman on filing and surviving this documentation and attorney chasing blitz! Join the club. Mine was filed last week too.
Congrats again to Q for the citizenship!
Thanks Zen, now we will be in the Nether land called EAD/AP for a while.
So now we have been let inside the compound, hope we will be soon let inside the inner club within a year or so.
Congrats both. It is great to not have to renew H1 and hopefully get greened soon.
As per me - citizenship is just a formality. I have always felt very much at home in US and after GC I stopped worrying much about my status. But yeah now I am not an outlier in my own house!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Both you and Q are correct but wording is bit off.
Your argument is correct in terms of mail received. -- By many state law any vote received by County board end of Election day (Nov 3rd this year) needs to be counted; some state do allow votes which are post mark by election day just like taxes.
Q statement with high rejection rate is correct too - Party who controls election board trys to put thumb on scale which benefits their party. Naked ballot method i.e ballot should be mailed 2 envelope method, Sign mismatch, Withness sign missing and many more excuses which makes ballot invalid.
Lets say 2% votes get rejected, so for 100K votes, 2K votes are rejected which is not a big deal where 10M are in-person vote. But in this election where 65M+ and counting already voted with expectation of 100M votes by mail + in-person voting there is a good chance to 2M votes will be rejected which is really big deal and can change election outcome. (2016 election was decided by Total 77K in 3 states MI, WI and PA)
MI was won by Trump by 10,704 votes which has 16 electoral votes.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/re...tates/michigan
So if election are close and SCOTUS intervenes than chances are candidate who is ahead at the time (Reps planning to vote on E-Day vs Dems who are preferring mail-in ballots) will be declared as winner without counting all mail-in ballots.
Last edited by monsieur; 10-27-2020 at 02:32 PM.
I am a flaming liberal by any measure, but I hate that AOC and the 'Squad' are starting to trumpet the 'Expand the Court' chants. All that will do is rile up more support for Trump. They need to lay low for another week.
It's a travesty that SC judges also have to be so obviously political and have their own agendas. And I sincerely mean that on both sides. RBG too is at fault for latching on to her seat when she could have relinquished that any time in the 8 yrs that Obama was President. Everyone is power and legacy hungry on either side. So I don't think expanding the court is going to do anything, there will be major demonstrations from the right. As usual even if Biden wins and the Senate is flipped, as has been usual in my time here at least, they will come in with a pandemic out of control, a wrecked economy and millions out of work and the deficit soaring. The Republicans will blame everything neatly on the Admin and then take back control of the House at least in 2022 and then another two years of grid lock.
Couldn't agree more. And that's where the margins kick-in. If the popular vote difference is going to be higher than 8%, its game over for GOP. If not, all the above mentioned become more and more important as the margin gets closer and closer. Also, its important to remember that at that point its a fractured/split mandate anyways. Therefore, its expected to be contested aggressively by legal channels by both sides.
Thanks Q! Fingers crossed.
Forget SCOTUS packing; Dems can fix it by accepting commission recommendation of expanding courts. This is the article which was written by conservative back in 2013 when Dems controlled all 3. But yeah moment Dems accept this reco, Reps will start crying foul
https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/...licans-courts/
I will see it when I believe it after the swearing in ceremony is over on Jan 20. If nothing else, Trump is a fighter, he will fight dirty till every legal measure is exploited. He has already set it up nicely with the SC appointments. The Democrats are really powerless and the only thing they can bank on is that the overwhelming turnout favors them in a landslide. Anything short of it and it will be fought over for weeks as more and more people die due to Covid.
While my rational brain says I have to disagree with you using data, my instincts stop me and make me agree with youLiberals have to prove that they have the nerve to pull these things off which I haven't seen them display since the time I have been observing them either. But playing the contrarian for a minute here, Court packing might become a reality if (when) certain high visibility cases, for e.g., Roe Vs. Wade go against liberals. It will be impossible for a trifecta Dem administration to simply watch SC over-rule Roe V. Wade and not do anything. I feel in someway the greedy right wing could kill this goose laying golden eggs too soon and force the next admin. to act on his issue by trying to over-leverage their expanded SC majority.
New senate will swear in Most probably on Jan 3rd; if Dems flip senate then Trump will be impeached and carried out by Marshall for Biden to take oath on Jan 20th.
Senate and Prez swearing in dates are fixed by law and can't be changed.
I disagree with you. You among many others are still in the 2016 nightmarish precedent that makes us all believe somehow DT will pull a trick from his bag while the fact is how can he do that if he loses a couple of sunbelt states (for example - Arizona). Odds get heavily against him if that happens and I haven't even talked about the Rust Belt yet. Let me put it this way - Odds of a Biden landslide is higher than a Trump victory and this is a data centric assertion, not just someone's opinion.
I am not arguing against the data. In a free and fair democracy, it would be a no brainer. But Trump has packed so many courts in one term that any narrow margins will lend itself to exploitation in courts. That's why I am qualifying by saying that only a landslide will help and if there is a 2000 like scenario, it will help him.
Agreed. Narrow election will be heavily contested.
This is one example of the shenanigans that the Republicans are pulling:
@Dan_F_Jacobson
My daily reminder -- almost every state in the country allows mail ballots to be processed well before election day except PA, WI, MI, where the GOP legislatures refuse to allow it. That's why we won't know results on election night.
Goes to prove how big of a dumas Kavanaugh is:
https://lawandcrime.com/awkward/just...is-conclusion/
Last edited by Turbulent_Dragonfly; 10-27-2020 at 03:13 PM.
I have to file for H1B extension.
My last H1B extension one was filed with an LCA for level 4 wages.
My attorney filed the LCA last week for my H1B extension and it had to be filed under L2 wage level, because of the new prevailing wage level rules!!
Will that create problems with the H1B extension?
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