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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #376
    I am most interested in knowing what will happen by January for EB2I. That will set the tone for the rest of the year. Hoping that they will move FADs by 2-3 months until at least the January bulletin. Saying this especially for folks in 2009 until April 2010 who already filed AOS years back. Will be awesome if the queue is cleared of all the past AOS filers.

  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

    https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

    I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
    i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
    ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
    iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
    iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

    Below are the numbers I get.

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
    Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
    EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
    EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

    EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
    EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

    Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

    Let the bashing begin!!
    Have u calculated dependents?

  3. #378
    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

    so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.
    smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

    Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

  4. #379
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    @longwaitgigu - yes dependants are included.

  5. #380
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    @longwaitgigu - yes dependants are included.
    Which dependent calculator u used
    Uscis dependent calculator is
    Eb2- 2.0 and eb3-2.1
    Coz my number is around 44000 till December 2010 for both eb2 and eb3

  6. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by longwaitgigu View Post
    Which dependent calculator u used
    Uscis dependent calculator is
    Eb2- 2.0 and eb3-2.1
    Coz my number is around 44000 till December 2010 for both eb2 and eb3
    If you add up my EB2 & EB3 for 2009 and 2010 you get ~44000.

  7. #382
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    If you add up my EB2 & EB3 for 2009 and 2010 you get ~44000.
    I would say your calculations are on par and my basic calculations indicate FAD will reach DF if USCIS utilizes all the visa's. Basis for that is below.
    Attached Files Attached Files

  8. #383
    Hello, need help on my case.

    I filed my 485 recently for me and my wife on my own. Instead of sending one package with 2 applications, i sent 2 packages separately for 2 applications. Does it cause uscis reject my wife 485 application? Any help on this is greatly appreciated.

  9. #384
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sudhedup1 View Post
    Hello, need help on my case.

    I filed my 485 recently for me and my wife on my own. Instead of sending one package with 2 applications, i sent 2 packages separately for 2 applications. Does it cause uscis reject my wife 485 application? Any help on this is greatly appreciated.
    USCIS needs to process the principal applicant before processing the derivative applicants if they are mailed separately. If your wife is a derivative applicant, then her application will be rejected if its processed before the principal applicants i-485. You may be able to resend the same application (if nothing has changed), once you get a receipt for your i-485. I would not be worried too much, as long as she has another way to maintain lawful status (such as H4, her own H1b, L1/L2, or F1/F2 etc). Good luck.
    Last edited by rabp77; 10-13-2020 at 06:58 PM.

  10. #385
    Thank you. Hope they can match to primary.

  11. #386
    Hello All,

    Need your thoughts on my current dilemma. My EB2-I priority date is current for final action as of Oct 1st. I responded to an RFE for medicals & Sup J in November, 2018. My sup J was approved in Feb 2020, my medicals expire mid-November, 2020. I changed my job in August, 2019 and haven't ported my application to current employer. I am currently engaging with an external Fragomen attorney who had once helped me through one of my previous employers just to cover my basis if I get an RFE before approval comes through, as my current employer is suggesting to go with my own attorney as company attorney didn't initiate my AOS application and they will support an provide all paperwork. This attorney is advising me to file for Sup J rather than waiting for an RFE.

    I was thinking what if my AOS application is approved while my Sup J application is in mail to USCIS. Positive could be it might get officers attention and quick action on my pending I-485. Any thoughts. As usual, your suggestions are highly appreciated.

    thanks,
    H

  12. #387
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    Read somewhere that new PERM cannot be started/processed if offices are closed, as notices need to be placed, and employees need to be able to see the notices.
    Is this true ?

  13. #388
    Quote Originally Posted by harpreetbhatti View Post
    Hello All,

    Need your thoughts on my current dilemma. My EB2-I priority date is current for final action as of Oct 1st. I responded to an RFE for medicals & Sup J in November, 2018. My sup J was approved in Feb 2020, my medicals expire mid-November, 2020. I changed my job in August, 2019 and haven't ported my application to current employer. I am currently engaging with an external Fragomen attorney who had once helped me through one of my previous employers just to cover my basis if I get an RFE before approval comes through, as my current employer is suggesting to go with my own attorney as company attorney didn't initiate my AOS application and they will support an provide all paperwork. This attorney is advising me to file for Sup J rather than waiting for an RFE.

    I was thinking what if my AOS application is approved while my Sup J application is in mail to USCIS. Positive could be it might get officers attention and quick action on my pending I-485. Any thoughts. As usual, your suggestions are highly appreciated.

    thanks,
    H
    From my personal experience, the approval time for I485J was 2 to 3 months (before COVID). Normally all attorneys will wait for Supp J RFE, however your PD is current and your medical is about to expire. If I am in your situation, I might wait till the medical is expired (another month or so) and then you can go with new SuppJ. There is a *chance* that your application might be approved as it is. USCIS is not going to approve an application with expired medicals. You might ask your employer attorney what are the chances of application getting approved without a RFE. Explain what you are thinking and make a quick phone call. You can decide based on attorney opinion.

    Don't worry a lot about RFE. Consider it as a progress in your case. Once an REF response is received, the GC approval comes quickly. You have waited so long. So another month or two (even though it is inconvenient) is no problemo. Nothing can go wrong in your case as you have attorneys supporting you. Cool down and Relax. Good Luck.

  14. #389
    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    Read somewhere that new PERM cannot be started/processed if offices are closed, as notices need to be placed, and employees need to be able to see the notices.
    Is this true ?
    There was a clarification from DOL that notices can be placed on the door. See below.

    Brandt Carter from the DOL Atlanta National Processing Center had clarified that – Posting Notice for PERM – If a business is all remote because of COVID, it’s okay to post notice on exterior door. This was posted in “Greg Siskind’s” twitter feed on 23JUL2020.
    Please see:
    https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1286363602178498561

  15. #390
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

    https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

    I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
    i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
    ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
    iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
    iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

    Below are the numbers I get.

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
    Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
    EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
    EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

    EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
    EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

    Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

    Let the bashing begin!!
    Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletin

  16. #391
    Quote Originally Posted by letmesee View Post
    Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletin
    The H1B wage shift is going to be temporary until the lawsuits are filed. This was just election time posturing for a sound bite saying see how we are protecting American jobs. When the lawsuit is filed and the changes are rolled back, there will be nary a peep about that.

  17. #392
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    The H1B wage shift is going to be temporary until the lawsuits are filed. This was just election time posturing for a sound bite saying see how we are protecting American jobs. When the lawsuit is filed and the changes are rolled back, there will be nary a peep about that.
    +1. Very less likely it survives an imminent legal challenge, followed by a change of administration (potentially!). Odds are stacked against it from even going into effect to begin with even for a short window (given the target implementation date is 60 days).

  18. #393
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    +1. Very less likely it survives an imminent legal challenge, followed by a change of administration (potentially!). Odds are stacked against it from even going into effect to begin with even for a short window (given the target implementation date is 60 days).
    Wage determination went into effect on October 8th. The 60 day window is for the H1-B speciality occupation rule which is a seperate rule.

    Anyone who files LCA/PERM or has a pending LCA/PERM on or after 8th october 2020 will need to be paid according to the new wage determination. It's a raise for everyone on H1-B

  19. #394
    Quote Originally Posted by inspired_p View Post
    Wage determination went into effect on October 8th. The 60 day window is for the H1-B speciality occupation rule which is a seperate rule.

    Anyone who files LCA/PERM or has a pending LCA/PERM on or after 8th october 2020 will need to be paid according to the new wage determination. It's a raise for everyone on H1-B
    Yes. I meant the specialty occupation rue when I said 60 days and thanks for the clarification.

    ha! Needless to say that lots of ppl. will be bumped down in these new wage levels. For example, old L4 wage will now probably likely could be new L3 when you are up for next extension. In that case, its probably going to be okay still as long as the role itself is experienced and requires special/specific skills and education specific to it. However, if the increase in levels is too dramatic that an old L3 will now only qualify as a new L1, it might get tricky. One an still make the case that the new L1 is still around the median as such. So I think only time will tell how USCIS adjudicates using these new elevated levels.

    There are also professions where wages are negotiated by union contracts. For example, tenured school teachers are paid that way. It will be interesting to see how those situations are approached. I personally have such friends who haven't had any RFE or rejection issues in the past (including the current DT admin.) as they were making the highest wages negotiated by their unions and everyone in the peer group in their school district made the same wage. What if those guys qualify only under the new L2 wage level for example.
    Last edited by Zenzone; 10-14-2020 at 10:04 AM.

  20. #395
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    Quote Originally Posted by letmesee View Post
    Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletin
    My assumptions for 20% in 2009 and 2010 are obvious. The dates are current in EB2 till May 15th, so I figured I will up the number by 10% and another 10% for subsequent years. The reason I use 40% for 2012 and onwards, is because not everyone who can downgrade will downgrade.

    i) They may not have employer support,
    ii) The dates may not be current by the time their company attorney's get to it.
    iii) I have known people who backed out because of the ability to pay clause where they were not offered the prevailing wages.
    iv) May be unable to file because of employer change and PERM pending.
    v) Most important of all, if USCIS extrapolates the trend to be around 40-50% people downgrading this month they will likely NOT allow the filing dates to remain current past this month. The purpose of FD is to estimate and allow cases to be filed which may be current by end of the FY 21. To provide AOS to backlogged folks is not it's goal.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 10-14-2020 at 10:05 AM.

  21. #396
    I expect downgrades from 2012 onwards will reach 80% in couple of months. People could not file this month will be motivated by the coming visa bulletins.

  22. #397
    What are you all thinking regarding release date of Nov Bulletin, this Fri or next?

  23. #398
    Quote Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly View Post
    What are you all thinking regarding release date of Nov Bulletin, this Fri or next?
    I am guessing next week

  24. #399
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    v) Most important of all, if USCIS extrapolates the trend to be around 40-50% people downgrading this month they will likely NOT allow the filing dates to remain current past this month. The purpose of FD is to estimate and allow cases to be filed which may be current by end of the FY 21. To provide AOS to backlogged folks is not it's goal.
    I am also thinking Filing dates will not be allowed by USCIS for the whole year. They will be open only for the next 2-3 months to get the applications in. After January they will rather move FADs based on the demand and processing bandwidth

  25. #400
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    I am going by i140 approved
    Which in year-2010-
    Eb2- 15,313x2
    Using dependent calculator- 30,626
    Eb3-6682x2.1
    Using dependent calculator-14,032.2
    That is giving me 44,658.2
    Thats just for 2010
    Correct me if I am wrong

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