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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    I get that, and I have made the similar mistake of not taking GC processing that seriously in 2009. But even if you consider the utopian case, I do not see how USCIS can use up all the numbers based on the processing times. I guess my thought process is that shouldn't USCIS be accepting applications on filing dates for two years from now to build inventory rather than the immediate fiscal year. Shouldn't they have started accepting for FY 2021 the start of FY 2020?
    The estimates provided on the USCIS website are generally very conservative, and the range 8-23 months is very wide. The lower end of it does come under a year. So, the filing dates at the beginning of the year are still the best estimate of where the final action dates will end up by the end of the year. Let's stay positive and hope for raining RFEs sooner than later.

  2. #252
    QQ: anyone doing premium processing for EAD? Lawyer (Fragomen) says that its not enabled yet.

  3. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Hi,

    The place of birth listed on my wife's passport differs from the one listed on her birth certificate.

    For I-485 purposes, is the birth certificate the more important document? Should we go by the city of birth on her Birth Certificate or on her passport?

    Any feedback/info is deeply appreciated!

    Thanks!
    You can provide 2 things for birth certificate.
    1. Non availability of birth certificate from the government agency even after searching the records. this need to be notarized. usually the DTP centers near the city hall will be able to get this on a spamp/estamp paper.
    2. affidavit from both parents (or a relative atleast 7 years elder to to the applicant) confirming the date and place of birth. this need to be notarised aswell. i this document you can specify the place of birth same as the one in the passport.

  4. #254
    Quote Originally Posted by bones20 View Post
    QQ: anyone doing premium processing for EAD? Lawyer (Fragomen) says that its not enabled yet.
    This option is not made available yet. We have to wait for official announcement.

  5. #255
    Q, SPEC & Experts,

    When time permits can you please post the worst case and best case prediction scenarios for EB2 & EB3 for 2021? This will help many viewers understand what can happen and make informed calls on downgrading, interfiling, etc.

    Thanks!

  6. #256
    Quote Originally Posted by maverick2010 View Post
    Q, SPEC & Experts,

    When time permits can you please post the worst case and best case prediction scenarios for EB2 & EB3 for 2021? This will help many viewers understand what can happen and make informed calls on downgrading, interfiling, etc.

    Thanks!
    For me, the best case scenario would be the FAD reaching the FDs. The worst case scenario may not be known until probably Jan or maybe even April.

  7. #257
    Quote Originally Posted by maverick2010 View Post
    Q, SPEC & Experts,

    When time permits can you please post the worst case and best case prediction scenarios for EB2 & EB3 for 2021? This will help many viewers understand what can happen and make informed calls on downgrading, interfiling, etc.

    Thanks!
    Best case - FADs move to FDs by Feb 2021.

    Worst case - FAD movement similar to 2020 expecting the Spillover to be recaptured for FB through congress and hence wasting the visas even if congress does not take away the spillover.

  8. #258

    Analysis helpful for deciding EB2 or EB3 depending upon priority date

    I have done some data crunching to determine if downgrade from EB2 to EB3 will really help or not. Considering horizontal and vertical spillovers , EB2 India might get approximately 30K Green cards in 2021 and EB 3 India might get 20K. However , due to high demand in EB2 category , I don't see EB2 final action date moving beyond Q1 of 2011. EB 3 India might get to end of fiscal year 2011 as demand is significantly low. so people with priority date beyond january 2011 should consider downgrading option.
    Detailed analysis with all the source data is given in below given link :



    http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.co...ing-in-eb.html

  9. #259
    I have done some data crunching to determine if downgrade from EB2 to EB3 will really help or not. Considering horizontal and vertical spillovers , EB2 India might get approximately 30K Green cards in 2021 and EB 3 India might get 20K. However , due to high demand in EB2 category , I don't see EB2 final action date moving beyond Q1 of 2011. EB 3 India might get to end of fiscal year 2011 as demand is significantly low. so people with priority date beyond january 2011 should consider downgrading option.

    Factors considered :

    1. Spillover from family based category
    2. past 2 years demand in EB2 and EB3 category for non-china non-india applicants
    3. EB1 category demand from past 3 years and possible spillover to EB 2
    4. India I 140 filings in 2009-2015 for EB2 and EB 3
    5. EB3 to EB2 Upgrades happened during 2010-2015
    4. twince count of demand as spouse filing I 140 separately

    Detailed analysis with all the source data is given in below given link :



    http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.co...ing-in-eb.html

  10. #260
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    Hi,

    The place of birth listed on my wife's passport differs from the one listed on her birth certificate.

    For I-485 purposes, is the birth certificate the more important document? Should we go by the city of birth on her Birth Certificate or on her passport?

    Any feedback/info is deeply appreciated!

    Thanks!
    I also face the same issue. If you want to change it in passport, first you need to fill in the CKGS form and then take pre approval from the consulate in your jurisdiction. I contacted the Indian consulate in NYC to change the place of birth in passport. They emailed me this "You may apply for passport renewal requesting change of place of birth, attaching a supporting document like Birth Certificate. Please bear in mind that only city of birth can be changed, state and country of birth CANNOT be changed.".

    I filled in the necessary forms from CKGS website and submitted the passport along with the birth certificate and the email from consulate. Now am waiting for the update.

  11. #261
    Quote Originally Posted by maverick2010 View Post
    Q, SPEC & Experts,

    When time permits can you please post the worst case and best case prediction scenarios for EB2 & EB3 for 2021? This will help many viewers understand what can happen and make informed calls on downgrading, interfiling, etc.

    Thanks!
    If visa wastage is kept to acceptable levels, I would expect EB2 and EB3 FAD to converge around mid to fall of 2011 by next September.

  12. #262

    Thumbs up

    quick question....is the I-944 form, one for each applicant applying for I-485, or is it one per family?

  13. #263
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    quick question....is the I-944 form, one for each applicant applying for I-485, or is it one per family?
    One for each person applying.

  14. #264
    Quote Originally Posted by Zenzone View Post
    If visa wastage is kept to acceptable levels, I would expect EB2 and EB3 FAD to converge around mid to fall of 2011 by next September.
    No amount of visa wastage is acceptable. We should all prepare to sue the administration early in the fiscal year if it looks like visas will be wasted. After having waited for 10+ years we have a reliance interest that our applications will be processed timely and visas utilized as intended under the law.

  15. #265
    Quote Originally Posted by android09 View Post
    One for each person applying.
    Applying for I-485 and AOS to be precise. For example, US citizen kids need not fill in separate I-944 forms as they don't need to adjust status with you.

  16. #266
    Quote Originally Posted by Positive View Post
    No amount of visa wastage is acceptable. We should all prepare to sue the administration early in the fiscal year if it looks like visas will be wasted. After having waited for 10+ years we have a reliance interest that our applications will be processed timely and visas utilized as intended under the law.
    I'm with you if the world was all sunshine and roses .

  17. #267

    Smile

    I have 3 years Bachelor degree in Computer Science (BS) followed by 3 years of Post Graduate Diploma in Computer Application from India.
    My previous employer filed my first PERM ( Priority Date: May 23, 2011) under EB2 (Masters + 1 year experience) and the I-140 got approved in Dec 2011.
    My current employer filed my second PERM (ported the first PERM) under EB2 category (Masters + 3 years exp/Bachelors + 5 years exp) and my current I-140 was approved in 2016 ( Priority Date : May 23, 2011)

    Will the downgrade from EB2 to EB3 cause any red flag with the new I-140 because of my educational qualification?
    Thanks!

  18. #268
    Quote Originally Posted by iamdeb View Post
    I have 3 years Bachelor degree in Computer Science (BS) followed by 3 years of Post Graduate Diploma in Computer Application from India.
    My previous employer filed my first PERM ( Priority Date: May 23, 2011) under EB2 (Masters + 1 year experience) and the I-140 got approved in Dec 2011.
    My current employer filed my second PERM (ported the first PERM) under EB2 category (Masters + 3 years exp/Bachelors + 5 years exp) and my current I-140 was approved in 2016 ( Priority Date : May 23, 2011)

    Will the downgrade from EB2 to EB3 cause any red flag with the new I-140 because of my educational qualification?
    Thanks!
    Any new I-140 is attracting significant scrutiny as a completely fresh application with no regard to established prior eligibility. So check with your attorney and you may need to do a fresh educational evaluation to establish the equivalency for the 3 year Bachelors. Also EB2 or EB3 depends on the requirements of the position, and not the educational qualifications of the applicant.

  19. #269
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    texas
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    6
    Wondering how PERM can be ported from old to new employer. (Never heard of this)


    If you have PERM+I140 approved in EB2 with existing employer , It makes sense to file I-140 (EB3) and AOS concurrently and get EAD/AP.

    To my understanding I-140 is more about employers ability to pay than Employee's education/skillset. If your current employer is on solid fiancial ground you have
    nothing to worry about.

    In worst case you will still keep your I-140 EB2 and can file AOS when DF is available to you under EB2

  20. #270

    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by gthbvf View Post
    Wondering how PERM can be ported from old to new employer. (Never heard of this)


    If you have PERM+I140 approved in EB2 with existing employer , It makes sense to file I-140 (EB3) and AOS concurrently and get EAD/AP.

    To my understanding I-140 is more about employers ability to pay than Employee's education/skillset. If your current employer is on solid fiancial ground you have
    nothing to worry about.

    In worst case you will still keep your I-140 EB2 and can file AOS when DF is available to you under EB2
    Thanks for the response...That was a typo on my part about PERM ported from old to new employer...i meant the PD was ported from the old employer...my current employer filed a PERM again in 2015 under EB2 the I-140 for which was approved in 2016...I am bit queasy regarding the downgrade after reading the excerpt from another site...

    "USCIS will look at this new I-140 filing with fresh eyes. This means they will re-adjudicate the entire petition again. Just because you received an approval before does not guarantee that the new petition will be approved. There is no deference given to prior approvals. Your employer must have the ability to pay the offered wage from the priority date to the present, your education and experience must meet the stated requirements on the labor certification which will be interpreted under the current adjudication trends, which may have changed from when you previously filed the EB-2 I-140. If the EB-3 downgrade is ultimately denied, it could impact the approved EB-2 I-140 depending on the reason for denial"

  21. #271
    My PD is EB2 May 20, 2011. I missed out by 5 days on filing dates in EB2.

    I have prepared and sent my application to my attorney already with I-485 and I-944. I am going to wait for November visa bulletin. If EB2 filing dates advance and if my EB2 priority date becomes current then I will just go ahead and file I-485 in EB2. If dates don't advance in November visa bulletin, then I will go ahead and downgrade EB2-EB3 before October 31 as my application is already with the attorney.

    My question is that do I need to send medicals right now or can I wait till the USCIS sends an interview invite and send the medicals before that? My attorney requested us not to do medicals right now and instead asked us to wait till the USCIS asks for them.

    Is that ok to do?

  22. #272
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    My PD is EB2 May 20, 2011. I missed out by 5 days on filing dates in EB2.

    I have prepared and sent my application to my attorney already with I-485 and I-944. I am going to wait for November visa bulletin. If EB2 filing dates advance and if my EB2 priority date becomes current then I will just go ahead and file I-485 in EB2. If dates don't advance in November visa bulletin, then I will go ahead and downgrade EB2-EB3 before October 31 as my application is already with the attorney.

    My question is that do I need to send medicals right now or can I wait till the USCIS sends an interview invite and send the medicals before that? My attorney requested us not to do medicals right now and instead asked us to wait till the USCIS asks for them.

    Is that ok to do?
    Most companies in silicon valley are saying that they will not file medicals right now - to reduce their workload.

    In other news, a medium sized company in silicon valley sent a mail to its employees that USCIS is rejecting new I-140 downgrades this month. It could be that they are wrong. If not, the news will eventually percolate in a few days.

  23. #273
    Hi Gurus,
    My PD is June 2010 and I am with sane employer for 12 yrs.

    My company attorney filed my i485, EAD, AP by Oct 1st itself after I pressured them do mine first.

    However they did not file i944 and I also missed it. When I asked after reviewing this forum, they told that until 10/12 i944 is not mandatory and attorney will file when we get RFE.

    Will this cause any delay? Attorney also told me not to submit credit report, medical services now. I am worried about i944 and any possible delays due to that.

  24. #274
    I have a complicated question.

    My PD is EB2 May 20, 2011. I missed out by 5 days in EB2 filing dates.

    Now, I have 2 choices.

    1. Keep the downgrade application ready which I already have and is with the attorney. Wait for November visa bulletin and see if the EB2 filing dates advance beyond May 20, 2011 which is my PD and if USCIS honors those dates. If it happens, then only file EB2 I-485 starting November 1 and cancel the plan for downgrading from EB2-EB3.

    or

    2. Go ahead and file EB2-EB3 downgrade application before October 31 regardless of what happens in November visa bulletin. If filing dates for EB2 advance beyond May 20, 2011 which is my priority date and if USCIS honors those dates, then go ahead and file I-485 in EB2 also starting November 1. In this situation, I will have an EB2 I-485 filed along with simultaneous processing of EB2-EB3 downgrade application as well.

    I am leaning more towards option 2, because

    If EB3 final action dates advance over next 1 year and if by that time my EB3 I-140 is approved on downgrade application, then I can actually get a green card.

    If I don't downgrade right now and only file EB2 I-485 instead (per option 1) and if EB2 final action dates don't advance much but if EB3 final action dates advance and my PD becomes current over next year, I can downgrade at that time filing concurrently, however the worry is that EB3 I-140 may take few months for approval and by that time, if EB3 final action dates retrogress then I will not be able to get green card.

    The other thing I was thinking was that if I follow Option 2, then I am even more safe in case my EB2-EB3 downgrade application is rejected. If that happens, I would not get EAD/AP on downgrade but since have already filed I-485 under EB2 as well so I can get EAD and AP with EB2 I-485 application.

    I understand that only one I-485 application will actually get approved but I was thinking that instead of requesting USCIS to interfile I-485 which can take months, why not file I-485 in both EB2 and EB2-EB3 downgrade if allowed by PD being current in filing dates and in that way, whichever category is current for my PD, USCIS can approve my I-485 and discard the other I-485.

    In a nutshell, I am thinking of downgrading EB2-EB3 application this month before October 31 and also filing EB2 I-485 whenever my EB2 filing date gets current (November or December visa bulletin). The only reason I am thinking of doing that is because I want to take advantage of whichever category the final action dates get current for my PD.

    If EB3 final action dates advance beyond May 20, 2011 by end of next FY and if my EB3 I-140 is approved by that time, then I get a green card in EB3.

    If EB2 final action dates advance beyond May 20, 2011 by end of next FY then I can get a green card in EB2.

    The only additional expense I see is lawyer fees and filing fees to file another I-485 in EB2 apart from the money I am gonna spend on downgrading.

    Does that make sense?

    Need the expert opinion here.

  25. #275
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    Most companies in silicon valley are saying that they will not file medicals right now - to reduce their workload.

    In other news, a medium sized company in silicon valley sent a mail to its employees that USCIS is rejecting new I-140 downgrades this month. It could be that they are wrong. If not, the news will eventually percolate in a few days.
    which company?

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