EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[tiger_of_web]

Feb Demand : 32975
Sept Demand : 8000

Total backlog cleared : 24975. That's cool.

[soggadu]

I need someone to actually put a scan of the NVC notice, of course after crossing out any identifying details, then I will be convinced. It keeps on bothering me that I have not seen actual proof of this. However, I must say that I found a post by a paralegal on Ron Gotcher's forum, who said that their firm has indeed obtained NVC Notices for EB2 I in year 2008.

This wait is killing me. I am going to put some nasty bugs in code today.

chil Nishant... remember this mantra... aaya toh aaya, baaki sab maaya... u have to relax a bit bro.... go have a beer...take ur family out or have a fight with wife...

[soggadu]

soggadu its hard to decipher demand data & coming to a conclusion about one month movement. The reason being what they show is important but what it hides could be vital! The demand data shows "documentarily qualified" but hides "not qualifed" cases as well as "current" cases. So the 8K that EB2 is showing is nothing but mathematical calculation of numbers from 15 Apr onwards till August. So nothing surprising or exciting in there.

The only thing I can think of is - indeed they are commited to allocate visas through Apr 15 since they seem to have excluded all those cases from demand data.

Another thing I can say is - there is nothing bad in the demand data. Something that will catch your eyes and go .... whoa these are guys are going to retro. But other than that difficult to say what these guys are thinking.

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Thank you Q... yes i did get the point that this has nothing new and we stand at the same place still.... But i really cant imagine going current...

[neospeed]

Are we expecting the VB today itself or tomorrow and what is movement for sept?.

[Spectator]

DOS Demand for EB2-IC has reduced (for periods Current in each release) by 25,750 in the months October 2010 to August 2011 inclusive.

Any porting numbers etc should be added to this figure.

[iamdeb]

Any idea how much of the SOFAD is still left?

[skpanda]

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

[velugc]

Are we expecting the VB today itself or tomorrow and what is movement for sept?.

Q is ur source back... can we get any updates from him on the movement...

no words yet from any source (Q's source, mitbbs.com etc) looks like CO would like to keep the cards closed till the release of VB and suprise us... hope it turns out good... with a big BTM or even with EB2 as current

[qesehmk]

Me too. The thing is .... the pretext is there it seems. Whether they will use it - who knows ?

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

[leo07]

for this to hold true, they need to have 8k+ visas ready-to-be-allocated for EB2 as a whole. Given it's the last month, it's extremely unlikely that they will sit on so many visas until last minute.

Me too. The thing is .... the pretext is there it seems. Whether they will use it - who knows ?

[iamdeb]

Pulled up Aug 2011 demand data.
For EB2 China it was 4050 and for EB2 India it was 6400. So I guess 2450 has been consumed.

[srimurthy]

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

I hope too as this will leave a lot of people happy including me (PD - Sep'2010)who can get a EAD.

[qesehmk]

Yes that is the basic condition. They had 19K for Aug + Sep excluding the EB2IC SOFAD.
So is it likely they will have more than 8K for Sep for EB2. Somewhat likely. But as I said that is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a BTM. Of course C is the most extreme BTM. Lets see.

On another note.... nothing heard so far from source.

for this to hold true, they need to have 8k+ visas ready-to-be-allocated for EB2 as a whole. Given it's the last month, it's extremely unlikely that they will sit on so many visas until last minute.

[evoori]

BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM ......

This wait is killing me..

BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM ..

[vchirakala]

BTM Hurray ... sorry guys just kidding ...i know this wait is killing

[veni001]

DOS Demand for EB2-IC has reduced (for periods Current in each release) by 25,750 in the months October 2010 to August 2011 inclusive.

Any porting numbers etc should be added to this figure.

Yes that is the basic condition. They had 19K for Aug + Sep excluding the EB2IC SOFAD.
So is it likely they will have more than 8K for Sep for EB2. Somewhat likely. But as I said that is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a BTM. Of course C is the most extreme BTM. Lets see.

On another note.... nothing heard so far from source.

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?

[leo07]

Good point Veni. It's basically going to the last ball of the match.

Q, Thanks for your response. As you said in one of your earlier posts, it's in the corridor of belief, 'How likely' it is

[Pdmar08]

I am not sure if i m not reading it on the blog or plain not reading it right..sorry monday morning but demand data is out. Sorry if i am posting it again.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Cumulative
Demand Prior To China- 3,250 India- 4,925

[qesehmk]

Not to belabour the point but there is slight difference.

Belief would be if someone says "it is going to happen". I don't think there is any guarantee. All I am saying is the condition may be present to make the move.

Q, Thanks for your response. As you said in one of your earlier posts, it's in the corridor of belief, 'How likely' it is

[cbpds1]

Going by the past few years, Sept bulletin has remained the same or has moved by 2-3 months, so dont expect this time to be anything different

[sha_kus]

The answer lies in the statement only "fall-up" happens from E4/E5 to E1.

The Demand Data standard verbiage quotes :


So this means spillover from E5 and E4 first go to E3 then to E2 and then to E1.

Am i understanding this correctly ?

[vishnu]

CBPDS1 - of course the bulletin may very well only move a bit, but the issue this time is unpredented. That is, the backlog of documentarily qualified I-485s is nearing zero and hence some move has to be made, either now or in Q3/Q4 FY12 to take in a truck load of fresh I-485s.

[Spectator]

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?

Veni,

I don't think Demand Data is very good for gauging porting, since it is only a net change.

Trackitt data suggests a figure of at least 3.5-4k based on PDs of EB2 approvals and cases approved as EB3 with PD later than EB3 Cut Off Date. Any Porting within dates that were also Current for EB2-I is difficult to judge and is not included in that figure.

The estimates between different members were quite wide ranging.

It is a really hard number to arrive at with any degree of certainty and may provide some "wiggle room" compared to the highest estimates.

[grnwtg]

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?

I am not positive if this demand data calculated porting numbers. In database will they mark EB3 record inactive/delete it if that record gets ported to eb2?
I am sure in some of the previous bulletin we have found out reduction of eb3 data which we thought that it is because of porting.

orelse is it just somebody did not choose a condition while pulling data for eb3?.

Anyways we might get bulletin by Thursday( or tomorrow?).. hopefully there will be BTM..

[venkat]

How big is Porting actually?

There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.

There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:

i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.

ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.

iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.

iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.

v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.

Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….

I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
Comments are welcome!!!