EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Exactly my thoughts !! And hence the conspiracy theory! Otherwise how do we justify being a Guru

Q,
...
After the VB is published, if demand "miraculously" increases, then it is too late to alter the COD movement.

[nishant2200]

I still think if the will is strong, based on current climate of politics and attitudes towards immigration, and favor of policymakers, you just have to say same reasons we are saying, namely, projection of Spillover, time being taken to adjudicate 485s, and hence need of an inventory.

As we all know, the current political and economic climate is polarizing on this and in fact may be hostile. That is why the conspiracies and drama.

Isn't the NVC premise to send invoices based on just possibility of dates being current in the near future. So what's the big deal in USCIS 485.

[cbpds1]

I do not think the citizens are aware of EB Immigration or monthly visa bulletin for that matter, a simple survey points that most of the citizens are not even aware of the debt crisis recently.

I do not think there is any political pressure in terms of 485 although there is persistent pressure on H1B category

I still think if the will is strong, based on current climate of politics and attitudes towards immigration, and favor of policymakers, you just have to say same reasons we are saying, namely, projection of Spillover, time being taken to adjudicate 485s, and hence need of an inventory.

As we all know, the current political and economic climate is polarizing on this and in fact may be hostile. That is why the conspiracies and drama.

Isn't the NVC premise to send invoices based on just possibility of dates being current in the near future. So what's the big deal in USCIS 485.

[leo07]

Processing stats & times are off CIS data, they look accurate. Some of the predictive analysis using the probabilistic distribution looks interesting, could close-in with more data. That site IMO, is poorly maintained and rarely updated. Idea and direction is good, but need more man-hours to get it right. Not very reliable as it stands.

This site lists I-140 and I-485 approval rate on yearly basis. How authentic is this information? Did people already discuss this on this forum?

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html

[nishant2200]

Processing stats & times are off CIS data, they look accurate. Some of the predictive analysis using the probabilistic distribution looks interesting, could close-in with more data. That site IMO, is poorly maintained and rarely updated. Idea and direction is good, but need more man-hours to get it right. Not very reliable as it stands.

Leo, you are in DC. can you sniff something in the air or read the mind of CO who might be nearby.

[leo07]

You know I definitely would, if my noses permit me, with all these tree-pollen allergies

Leo, you are in DC. can you sniff something in the air or read the mind of CO who might be nearby.

[mesan123]

Hi All Guru's

Will the S&P downgrading U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ affect our Sep bulletins anyway???

[qesehmk]

Teddy
I checked out overall approvals. They just are not there. Only 17 total cases approved across all categories ... all countries in Aug.

So something is stalled. Not sure what it is. But now that Spec has talked about conspiray theory let me say that yes ... i do smell something that could result in some sort of BTM. We will see ... only a matter of 4-5 days from now.

Q / Nishant, Guys there is another angle to this, spillover to EB2 I/C should only happen if there are insufficient number of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases. The inventory shows almost an unprecedented backlog of both EB2 ROW and EB1 so this could definitely be a way to show good results within the approvable inventory, cases of EB2 I/C beyond 15th Apr are not approvable. Iam sure a lot of management reporting must be happening within USCIS / DOS and after Jul this point must have caught their attention. Overall I feel this is an indicator that there will be conservative movement in September, BTM is more likely if the dates can come closer to 15th Aug at the first place or there is a danger of SOFAD falling down, I don't think that’s the case. Iam sure spec can give us the legal angle, the concern here is that the further we are away from 15-AUG-2007 by the Sep VB greater will be the delay in BTM or any kind of intake.

Teddy
so do we see ROW EB2 or Overall eB1 surge? At least till July end it was not there.

[nishant2200]

Hi All Guru's

Will the S&P downgrading U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ affect our Sep bulletins anyway???

Not this bulletin. In long run, stuff like this may scare EB5 n the new EB2-entrepreneur, as well as cautious hiring by US companies with global investors may lead to less EB2ROW, EB1, porting. And hence more SOFAD n EB2 IC grab it.

[Spectator]

Teddy
so do we see ROW EB2 or Overall eB1 surge? At least till July end it was not there.

Q,

I suppose it depends what you call a surge, or whether a surge is necessary.

EB2-ROW (No MP) was at around 21k by the end of July, so another 2k a month would be 25k for the year, yielding only 4k towards spillover. The average over the last 5 months is 2.3k per month.

EB1 was approaching 22k by the end of July, so another 2k per month would be 26k for the year, yielding only 14k towards spillover. Given there were zero ROW EB1 approvals in July, there must be a chance of an upswing in those numbers. The average over the last 5 months is 2.8k per month.

[Sandeep2011]

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...+on+enterprise

Slightly off topic but help us kill some time before Sept VB.

Nice article on how EB5 is perceived by biz community. Since inception of EB5 program, US has been able to attract 1.5 Bn of investment and create 31000 jobs using this visa category.

[pch053]

If at all there is any BTM, then will April 15, i.e. the PDs that current in Aug be considered as the SFM date? The reason I am bit unsure on how things will pan out if there is any BTM is how USCIS will decide on the dates that will get I485 approval in the month of Sep. As an example, lets say that USCIS has enough visas to clear until 15th June and the PDs move to Jan'08, what are the range of PDs that will get approval in Sep'11. Will it be in any random order for I485s submitted until Aug'07 (as PDs after June 15 will also be current) until the visas are exhausted? Or will there be very few approvals with the sole purpose of the forward movement being to build the buffer of new applications?

[qesehmk]

Spec what you say would've been true ONLY IF DoS would've actually allocated all those numbers. As of now hardly 17K have been allocated to EB2IC. So almost another 12-17K to go.

If Teddy's fears were to turn true, then we not only wouldn't see movement in Sep bulletin. But also would see retrogression in subsequent bulletins.

What I have suggested is - I would buy into those fears if I see surge in EB1 and EB2ROW approvals. I wouldn't be worried about 1-2 K approvals (ie. equivalent in trackitt), because 1-2K would only affect Sep movement. But if the surge is real surge as in 8-10K approvals then EB2IC dates must retrogress.

Since as of now we don't see any surge, since we see EB2IC approvals very thin, since there is a large visas available and since Sep bulletin is so close - naturally I am wondering if this is yet another ploy to do a calculated BTM.

We will know soon BTM or not, as of now I really don't see any signs of retrogression. So when I responded to Teddy, that's what I had on my mind. Hope its clear now.

Q,

I suppose it depends what you call a surge, or whether a surge is necessary.

EB2-ROW (No MP) was at around 21k by the end of July, so another 2k a month would be 25k for the year, yielding only 4k towards spillover. The average over the last 5 months is 2.3k per month.

EB1 was approaching 22k by the end of July, so another 2k per month would be 26k for the year, yielding only 14k towards spillover. Given there were zero ROW EB1 approvals in July, there must be a chance of an upswing in those numbers. The average over the last 5 months is 2.8k per month.

[veni001]

PERM applications proced in April'11-May'11
Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K
FY2011(Q1+Q2) approvals = 7.1K (only cases filed in FY2011)
FY2011(Q1+Q2) Denials = 0.4K (only cases filed in FY2011)

DOL June'11 PERM document shows both audits and review dates are in FY2011, which means 73% of the 22,000 pending PERM should be from FY2011 only.
Since FY2009 saw the bottom, most of the appeals (24%) should also from FY 2011.

Let's take 85% of the pending PERM cases (=~19K) are from FY2011.
PERM processed in April'11-May'11 = 45K-7.1K-0.4k-19K = 18.5K
From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data Approval to Denial ratio is 81:19

April'11-May'11 PERM approvals = 15K

Teddy
I checked out overall approvals. They just are not there. Only 17 total cases approved across all categories ... all countries in Aug.

So something is stalled. Not sure what it is. But now that Spec has talked about conspiray theory let me say that yes ... i do smell something that could result in some sort of BTM. We will see ... only a matter of 4-5 days from now.

Q,Spec,Teddy,
Here is my take on this...

Based on trackitt update history most of first week approvals are updated after the week-end!

Let's assume the reporting remain low .... based on our calculations the chances of numbers being exhausted by now is very less...

DOL fact-sheet (June update) provides about 15K PERM approvals in the months of April and May...

Historically ROWMP is averaging about 55-60% PERM approvals but for FY2011(Q1+Q2) it is about 40% .

If we take 50% of April-May PERM approvals as ROWMP and EB2:EB3 ratio as 60:40 then this would potentially bring 4K -140 applications, considering two month lag between PERM approval and i140 receipt all these should be in the pipeline by now.

In this case we should at least see increased(proportionate on trackitt) ROWMP approvals, if ROWMP PERMs are still low in April-May and assume most of approvals are IC and potentially porting then we should see the same result on IC approvals....

Based on the July EB1-140 statistics, there may not be very many documentarily qualified EB1's left....

Le't hope there is some +ve smell here?

[qesehmk]

PCH, the movement so far is SFM. The reason being we are seeing EB1 and EB2 ROW consuming less visas and the EB2IC movement corresponds well to the underage in EB1 EB2ROW consumption.

If at all there is any BTM, then will April 15, i.e. the PDs that current in Aug be considered as the SFM date? The reason I am bit unsure on how things will pan out if there is any BTM is how USCIS will decide on the dates that will get I485 approval in the month of Sep. As an example, lets say that USCIS has enough visas to clear until 15th June and the PDs move to Jan'08, what are the range of PDs that will get approval in Sep'11. Will it be in any random order for I485s submitted until Aug'07 (as PDs after June 15 will also be current) until the visas are exhausted? Or will there be very few approvals with the sole purpose of the forward movement being to build the buffer of new applications?

[Spectator]

Spec what you say would've been true ONLY IF DoS would've actually allocated all those numbers. As of now hardly 17K have been allocated to EB2IC. So almost another 12-17K to go.

If Teddy's fears were to turn true, then we not only wouldn't see movement in Sep bulletin. But also would see retrogression in subsequent bulletins.

What I have suggested is - I would buy into those fears if I see surge in EB1 and EB2ROW approvals. I wouldn't be worried about 1-2 K approvals (ie. equivalent in trackitt), because 1-2K would only affect Sep movement. But if the surge is real surge as in 8-10K approvals then EB2IC dates must retrogress.

Since as of now we don't see any surge, since we see EB2IC approvals very thin, since there is a large visas available and since Sep bulletin is so close - naturally I am wondering if this is yet another ploy to do a calculated BTM.

We will know soon BTM or not, as of now I really don't see any signs of retrogression. So when I responded to Teddy, that's what I had on my mind. Hope its clear now.

Q,

I can't agree that EB2-ROW are consuming less visas - they are on track to consume more visas this year than last year, if they continue at their present rate.

EB2-I appears to have consumed anywhere between 14k and 20k visas by the end of July (compared to the c. 16k + porting + PWMB expected), depending how you calculate it. EB2-C consumption is impossible to determine. Movement to the July bulletin would give a potential figure of 6.9k + PWMB. If the actuals approvals from the July movement haven't yet been completed, there is plenty of time to finish them.

Lets call that 28k. August movement gives a further usage of c. 2.5k bringing the total usage to 30.5k.

SOFAD might be 34.5k, leaving 4k for September. It could be less but it doesn't look like it will be much more. Even a modest increase in other approvals over two months can wipe that out.

I can't really see where your 12-17k still to go comes from, because far more than 17k have surely been allocated to EB2-IC already, both theoretically and in practice.

I am saying that I think Teddy's caution is well founded and is a possibility.

[nishant2200]

I think our fate is more or less sealed by now. CO knows what he going to do.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Sorry if I conveyed ROW EB2 is consuming less visa. Not at all. EB2ROW is on track to consume more visas than last year. We are in synch.

I do not understand the basis behind you assertion - "Far more than 17K have been assigned". Why do you think so? The reason I think 16K is consumed is based on YTD trackitt approvals and assuming ratio of actuals to approvals at the same level as prior year for EB2IC.

Now exactly because so far only 16K have been assigned to EB2IC, the concern would be that the remaining of 34.5K SOFAD also should be applied to EB2IC. But if what Teddy said is true, then that Jeopardizes that. What he says is a possibility but right now the trend of EB1 EB2ROW consumption doesnt support that possibility.

If EB1 and EB2ROW cruise control at YTD average rate then there is absolutely no need to worry. And as I said, the data doesn't show that they are moving at a faster rate at all.

Q,

I can't agree that EB2-ROW are consuming less visas - they are on track to consume more visas this year than last year, if they continue at their present rate.

EB2-I appears to have consumed anywhere between 14k and 20k visas by the end of July (compared to the c. 16k + porting + PWMB expected), depending how you calculate it. EB2-C consumption is impossible to determine. Movement to the July bulletin would give a potential figure of 6.9k + PWMB. If the actuals approvals from the July movement haven't yet been completed, there is plenty of time to finish them.

Lets call that 28k. August movement gives a further usage of c. 2.5k bringing the total usage to 30.5k.

SOFAD might be 34.5k, leaving 4k for September. It could be less but it doesn't look like it will be much more. Even a modest increase in other approvals over two months can wipe that out.

I can't really see where your 12-17k still to go comes from, because far more than 17k have surely been allocated to EB2-IC already, both theoretically and in practice.

I am saying that I think Teddy's caution is well founded and is a possibility.

[ifaith]

Hi
My brother who missed the boat in July 2007 got his card today
Time Line
Priority Date Aug 2006, I140 Approved
Changed jobs in May 2007 and hence missed the July 2007.
The New labour was stuck in audit for 2 years
Got New I140 approved in 2010
The Date became current on June 1st
Filed The papers on June 8th
June 20th got the receipt notice
July 20th got the Finger Printing done
Aug 5th got the confirmation of 485 approval and cards together.

Best of luck everyone, hang in there, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[nishant2200]

Congrats. Grab a big gift this upcoming rakshabandhan.

Guys, this is lightning fast. As I and pch053 said earlier, seen 2 month 485 approvals.

Hi
My brother who missed the boat in July 2007 got his card today
Time Line
Priority Date Aug 2006, I140 Approved
Changed jobs in May 2007 and hence missed the July 2007.
The New labour was stuck in audit for 2 years
Got New I140 approved in 2010
The Date became current on June 1st
Filed The papers on June 8th
June 20th got the receipt notice
July 20th got the Finger Printing done
Aug 5th got the confirmation of 485 approval and cards together.

Best of luck everyone, hang in there, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[Spectator]

Spec

Sorry if I conveyed ROW EB2 is consuming less visa. Not at all. EB2ROW is on track to consume more visas than last year. We are in synch.

I do not understand the basis behind you assertion - "Far more than 17K have been assigned". Why do you think so? The reason I think 16K is consumed is based on YTD trackitt approvals and assuming ratio of actuals to approvals at the same level as prior year for EB2IC.

Now exactly because so far only 16K have been assigned to EB2IC, the concern would be that the remaining of 34.5K SOFAD also should be applied to EB2IC. But if what Teddy said is true, then that Jeopardizes that. What he says is a possibility but right now the trend of EB1 EB2ROW consumption doesnt support that possibility.

If EB1 and EB2ROW cruise control at YTD average rate then there is absolutely no need to worry. And as I said, the data doesn't show that they are moving at a faster rate at all.

Q,

We don't seem to disagree, other than where the figures might go.

The figures for visas assigned to EB2-I come from my monthly breakdowns http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010

An explanation of how Cumulative, Cumulative 2 and Cumulative 3 are derived from Trackitt data is explained in the post.

Even if there are still approvals from July to be made (I agree there might be), with only 2.5k from August movement itself, there is plenty of resource to catch up in the early part of August.

EB2-C has to be added to this. Unfortunately, Trackitt does not give good data for EB2-C approvals. Either way, it is still more than 17k IMHO.

I think it can go either way - it is quite finely balanced. Ultimately, it is probably a policy decision.

Have a good weekend.

[mesan123]

Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I think there is a difference in what we are saying. I think you dont recognize that a very very large % of EB2IC cases are current-yet-unapproved (CYU). If you use trackitt data, then the % is almost 40%. Even if you say people dont update approvals immediately the % remains at least 25%. These CYU cases could get hurt if we see EB1 and EB2ROW 485-approval-surge.

While I do agree EB2IC approvals haven't come in August, I would be concerned for EB2IC CYU cases if we see more than YTD average approvals in EB1 and EB2ROW. That would mean YTD EB2IC movement may not be SFM and could be retrogressed.

I think you are looking at Aug and Sep and trying to speculcate how much a surge can hurt or not hurt. And I am looking in the prior months and thinking that almost 40% CYU cases are yet to approved and so if the surge is more then there is a tremendous potential for damage. Fortunately I just don't see the EB1 EB2ROW approvals that could hurt CYU cases for EB2IC.

I think the argument is going in circles. May be just try to find out yourself what % of EB2IC cases are CYU. That will immediately throw a light on what I am trying to convey.

p.s. - The reason I spent so much time on this discussion is because, I am not such a big believer in randomness when it comes to immigration approvals. At an individual level it may exists. But on large scale things need to move in a reasonable predictable way and when that doesn't happen as in August approvals (i..e this month) it smells fishy!

Q,

We don't seem to disagree, other than where the figures might go.

The figures for visas assigned to EB2-I come from my monthly breakdowns http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010

An explanation of how Cumulative, Cumulative 2 and Cumulative 3 are derived from Trackitt data is explained in the post.

Even if there are still approvals from July to be made (I agree there might be), with only 2.5k from August movement itself, there is plenty of resource to catch up in the early part of August.

EB2-C has to be added to this. Unfortunately, Trackitt does not give good data for EB2-C approvals. Either way, it is still more than 17k IMHO.

I think it can go either way - it is quite finely balanced. Ultimately, it is probably a policy decision.

Have a good weekend.

[qesehmk]

My own experience has been that first time I extended they gave 1 year. Next they gave 3 years. My 485 was already filed when I the first extension was required. May be they thought it would be approved within 1 yr. But I would hope you get 3 yrs if you haven't yet filed.

Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[mesan123]

Oh ok.Thank you for the reply. I am applying next week for my extension. just thought if i get 3 years would be good, as i am going to india, so that i can visa stamped for 3 years...listening to that visa stamping problem in india, thought 3 years extension would give me peace of mind for 3 years if i get my stamping this year

My own experience has been that first time I extended they gave 1 year. Next they gave 3 years. My 485 was already filed when I the first extension was required. May be they thought it would be approved within 1 yr. But I would hope you get 3 yrs if you haven't yet filed.