Peace my friend.Originally Posted by excalibur123
Peace my friend.
None of us have a crystal ball. But if past is any precedent for future, all you have to do is look at the far right agenda on immigration and how much they have achieved so far.
So for that reason alone - if they say something - trust that they are working to do that. Nov 3rd etc doesn't matter. The agenda is agenda whether trump is in office or not.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Just because things are in far right agenda it doesn’t mean all of those will happen either. For example, dunno if you are aware, they have retroactive revocation of certain naturalized citizenship, birth right citizenships and barring certain green card holders from entry as well as drastically reducing GC numbers in their agenda for quite a while. The question and discussion is around how imminent the threat is instead of fretting over every possibility out there! I use Nov 3rd as a barometer because I think a lot of this election centric posturing and the far right is having a field day as a result. So it makes it prudent to see how far and likely they can/will go. Who knows just for posturing the very same administration could say tomorrow they are now reviewing birth right citizenships and all GCs and naturalizations issued in the past decade will be audited to energize their base even further. After all anything is possible, right? If we cast that wide of a net then none can be safe. And that’s my point about Difference between general gloom and doom Vs. looking for imminent threats so that we can be atleast mentally prepared!
I will also bet my life that a Biden administration will not give any legitimacy to any of these far right agenda. That’s a whole another topic of discussion that I will stay clear from assuming we all will know in about 100 days from now!
Last edited by Zenzone; 06-28-2020 at 07:51 AM.
President may be trailing now. Remember, he was trailing the same amount against Clinton too in June 2016. Until first President vs Biden debate, I won't give any weight to anything that's on media. I'm really worried Biden's going to surrender haplessly should the presidential debate happen.
That’s a whole another topic that would bring out the statistician in me. I feel I have already over contributed to this group so I’m going to refrain going into politics here.
If USCIS is going to furlough it’s employees due to budget issue they should move the priority dates and collect the money from I-485/EAD filings. What is stopping them?They should not waste 25K visas due to understaffing.
If USCIS is going to furlough it’s employees due to budget issue they should move the priority dates and collect the money from I-485/EAD filings. What is stopping them?
I am sure some people (GC aspirants )will be ready to pay USCIS upfront $20-30K ( as a premium processing fee, if implemented) not to go furlough,
This is pump up their budget with ~$600M. They should not waste 25K visas due to understaffing.
Furloughed employees get unemployment benefits. Trump admin wants funding to USCIS on their rules - i.e no changes in policies, but extra money. They want USCIS to become inefficient as that means less immigrants. They want furloughs.
Republicans in Congress will probably not want to fund USCIS, as they see no reason for the service it offers. Democrats will not want to fund it, as no family based processing is happening ( which the EO has stopped.) . It would be surpriing if Congress agrees to fund it. Only option that may avoid this an immediate fee increase, or an advancement of filling dates for eb. Likely heading towards furlough.
The interesting line in the article is
Edlow said lawmakers have responded positively, and he is hopeful that if Congress takes up a pandemic aid bill next month, it will include the emergency funds.
- Like others have mentioned, the $1.2B will be negotiated with the second Covid package. The house version of HEROS will stop spillover from FB to EB, which will affect many backlogged folks. Republicans did not commit to that bill and may work on their own version. I am not sure how they will pass one before furloughs hit the employees.
- USCIS / DHS can keep extending the furlough date, by starting to accept a ton of new applications. The agency is run by Cissna, who is from the DT camp. Will the career staff do something to increase income or will the admin wing from DT camp prevail? If people are losing their income, I would think that they will do something to increase income. 10% increase in fees is not going to be enough to avoid furlough.
Cissna is long gone from USCIS.
For slow attrition over the years to have happened, Trump and his ideological successors have to sit in the WH for over a decade. I don't see that happening. I haven't been following up with the current new H1B ban; I am surprised why there hasn't been an injunction from any federal court yet.
I started writing a whole big paragraph but it seemed unnecessary. I can only say - being on the ground and in the trenches, I can say with certainty that if the market was depleted from the H1B talent, we cannot do business. Period. My team is not the only team and our organization is not the only organization. For better or for worse, the business in the US now expects a certain level of excellence. The US has amassed unbelievable talent from all over the world that now penetrates across all organizations. You can't suddenly lower the bar - your top performers will leave en masse.
Not to say the repercussion and shock effect it will have on housing in major metros, that will cause recession. I believe the numbers are that big now.
On a side note, I have a different take. All along, we have heard stories of how H1B workers are like slaves and underpaid and are used by corporations for wage arbitrage. It is possible that it's true in some cases. However, I did spend the last three years in three different organizations in managerial/directorial capacity and I have possibly hired ~15 people. I have had some epiphanies during this time. Of course my experiences have been limited, but whatever.
"H1B workers are paid a King's ransom in the right roles". Not a hyperbole. My current H1B reportees are paid 50% to 100% more than my 100% white American reportees in the prior startup I worked. H1Bs also tend to be more dynamic, willing to work on their skills more, and are probably more prone to flight! I have to work extra hard (I enjoy it) to keep them stimulated. H1Bs are also more aware of the market, the right technologies to master, and in fact can take more risks.
What's the point of all this? Well, I am consistently noticing the trend that being on the H1B may be a silent boon so to speak. What you think is the biggest obstacle in life could very well be your biggest strength. H1Bs are climbing the economic ladder fast and I have lost count how many of them have bought million dollar houses in our neighborhood. They are rapidly getting in that "haves" category. I worry that the American public at large might become anti-H1B for this very reason. Some would say that's an anti-American spirit historically, but these days, it's hard to pass what is American and what's not. In that sense, H1B is a vulnerable group.
That is quite a statement. You might be comparing Apples to oranges. E.g. an H1B may be working on latest stuff while your American reportee might be working on routine 9x5 stuff. I don't know your situation. I have managed over $1 billion in IT budgets and so know it first hand how money works. Absolutely zero chance that ANY company will spend even 10% more on an H1B when it comes to base because they are already spending on lawyers.
Wonder if you are really comparing apples to apples. And if so -why are you paying that premium?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Instead of asking Congress for Money to run the self-funded [via our fee] organization, suggest them to start a "Go Fund Me" campaign and ask the general public [Everyone including Citizens, Pending and Future applicants].
They will then not need to Furlough their employees.
If they can mention that they will stay true to constitution, and the law and will act in an unbiased manner in the campaign post, then I am sure everyone will be happy to contribute. Its a Win-Win for everyone.
For sure, I will be happy to open my purse wide.
The premium is paid for the role and the skills in latest technologies. Think AWS everything, Redshift, Dynamo, EMR, containers, all the latest trends in software engineering. We are a little more forgiving and will hire based on potential and not current knowledge.
It actually so happened that I tried to pry away some of my prior reportees/friends to my current organization after several positions opened up. Naturally, they would have been my first targets having worked with them. Not one person moved. Not generalizing any trends here; maybe they have different priorities, but for a 50%+ hike, I would have jumped without blinking (and we are a more stable organization than where most of them work too). Learning the latest cutting edge stuff is great too as it opens up future prospects.
In fact I worked in another in-demand domain before and I know a few folks on H1B working across the startup scene here. Yup, they are all paid King's ransom (I have moved around a lot, have a large network and interview and also take interviews a huge number of times, so I generally know insider salary info of a wide range of people).
Thinking more about this, for an average position, we interview over 10 candidates and a majority of them are quite pedestrian, H1Bs included. So I am certainly not saying H1Bs are unicorns or bring a silver bullet solution to all your problems. However consistently, when hiring the cream of the crop from the field, a significant chunk/or even a majority are H1B folks. My point is that if these people didn't exist in the market as it is structured today, things would turn ugly very quickly as it will be impossible for us to fill a majority of our positions organization wide.
Obviously, the US should invest in their schooling system, and encourage more Americans in jobs requiring critical thinking. Having said that, although I don't want to stereotype, the combination of a native-born American vendor and an Indian/Chinese/East European immigrant worker has been repeated so many times in my direct experience that it's stopped being a cliche. I read once upon a time, native-born American women used to be in programming - I read they were quite instrumental in success of NASA's Apollo missions. That peaked around early 80s and since then, the native-born American women participation in CS just plummeted. Perhaps they don't have role models, are being fed poor normative cues...who knows? This tired cliche holds up very well in my own workplace; all women I have worked with directly in my last 15 years have been immigrants.
It's a complicated situation and there are no easy answers. Perhaps our own kids - when they grow up - will reverse the trend. US is a dynamic place - that's what is so great about this country. However, at this point, the corporate dependence on H1B is absolute - I will be very surprised if there are even minor meaningful changes in the status quo.
Agree with you for the most part. I think ppl. like you and me are on the brighter side of this skilled visa program. Let's face it, visa abuse and undercutting wages is also real and people have in fact made a business model out of it too. Those areas are ripe for reforms. But the election year rhetoric while a raging pandemic is in full swing doesn't bother to differentiate between both and instead things get painted with a broad brush to appeal to the base. Once the rhetoric settles and election passes, it will probably be back to trying changes through regulatory rule making of sorts instead of one size fits all approach, IMO (even if DT is re-elected).
Well written sport. So what this boils down to is that H1Bs are more likely to accept roles that need risk taking, learning, and adapting. Which is in a very different league than most normal jobs. Also H1Bs working in sillicon valley (particularly in Engineering jobs) or H1Bs in executive positions also will be paid quite generously.
However other than these places, H1Bs are generally underpaid. I will not be surprised to hear about underpaid people even from silicon valley. The reason is very simple. If you have a weakness, it will be exploited. That's how the world operates. You know who don't operate that way with their employees ? The absolutely world class companies in each of the industry sector. They value good people and nurture talent.
I do fully agree with your conclusion that H1B is here to stay. H1Bs are indeed highly skilled and do bring unbelievable value to American workforce. Regardless of what Miller and crowd believes, H1Bs indeed often work in areas where it is incredibly difficult to find Americans.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Agree Q - Have noticed most consulting companies [TCS, Infy,...] to underpay H1's. I have also noticed smaller consulting companies in US take advantage of candidates and pay them less. From my experience being on the board of a small company - I pay H1s and non-H1s same. My teams do not consider the attorney fee at all and reduce their pay. We accept it as a premium for a good candidate. Again being a small company and not being in silicon valley, I do not have many applicants applying on a daily basis but when they do and pass the coding tests[90% or higher] and other recruitment criteria, My teams do all they can to have them onboard.
I think the consulting companies are the primarily guilty of underpaying their employees compared to their value output. If they create a separate visa for consulting companies and keep H1 for regular full time positions, it will help clear out this issue.
Other than consulting companies, most companies are fair as they are looking to fill a need. I have analyzed the h1 as well as perm data and the average pay even considering the consulting companies is pretty high compared to what a native born middle class person earns.
I think what would be helpful is to implement the 50-50 rule where a company cannot have more than 50% of their employees on visas and removal of per country limits. Even better would be a work permit that is generic once approved and not tied to employer if the new job is in same or similar occupation.
Paying prevailing wage, free job portability, removal of country caps and 50-50 rule will help level the playing field and take care of the underpay scenario pretty quickly.
HEROES ACT
https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/h...16hr6800eh.pdf
IN PAGE 1755 mention about unsued visa will be rollover into next fiscal year. It mean that will spillover right?
The way I interpreted it is that any difference between the annual worldwide ceiling of FB,EB and DV green cards and the actual number issued will be added to FY 2021 and 2022. I think it will be added to the respective categories.It should be remembered that these numbers are a ceiling and not targets. The fall across from FB to EB will be eliminated to make sure the visa numbers are not counted twice. I think Spectator has addressed this before
it means no FB-> EB spill over for the next two years. Unused visas will be spill over back into FB for FB, and EB for eB for the next 2 years. its still just a proposal (not law), so things can change.
Last edited by rabp77; 06-30-2020 at 01:13 PM.
Thanks,
But how to fix this? Need your experience and expertise.
Here is what you do:
1) March in person to DOS / USCIS / Congress (homeland security related committee) and submit a written request to the heads asking full utilization of visas as well as moving the dates well ahead to ensure visas will be utilized.
2) Do this in batches for 3 months straight. 100 people per week. 12 weeks of repeatedly hammer the message home.
This will do the trick in my opinion. Do it for your own sake.
Last edited by qesehmk; 07-03-2020 at 09:46 AM. Reason: Made it concise
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
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