EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September . It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year .

[mesan123]

There was no demand data released for august month today.....so i think the sep bulletin will be released only by next week tuesday or so...

[nishant2200]

There was no demand data released for august month today.....so i think the sep bulletin will be released only by next week tuesday or so...

n*5+123, frankly I see no chance of demand data or bulletin this week. On monday 8/8, they would have had just 5 business days into the month, so even that is not a guarantee. What can be said for sure is that it will be out by 8/12 friday, the bulletin, and hopefully the demand data a day before that.

Of course, Q's source may enlighten us earlier on the release dates, and / or any trend in movement.

[qesehmk]

We should hear by Tuesday or Monday. The bulletin will most likely come out Tue-Fri next week.

Q's source may enlighten us earlier on the release dates, and / or any trend in movement.

[nishant2200]

Great point K. So it now does not seem far fetched to expect the Bulletin on Monday. And much better chances on tuesday.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

describes like this .....

"VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month "

So we can assume that , Dos is not ready before 8th . I Didnt verify the dates of previous ones , but i think we can expect the bulletin after 8th .

[neospeed]

Hmm scary, cis missing files:

http://fcw.com/articles/2011/06/20/u...acy-risks.aspx

[username]

But last year there were fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k

agreed, last year we had fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k, but current FY we are having approx >13K extra SOFAD.
So approx each month we can accommodate 1100 extra application. And more thing to notice is there was no movement in first 2 quarter of current FY (Sep 2010 to Apr 2011).

Good one.

The way you determined that dates would move to 8/22/2007, by looking at spec's table(??) is agreeable.
Number of days moved in previous years, is a relatively unstable parameter to depend upon. Because the movement is based, at least on two high-level variables, X & & Y. X being the SOFAD and Y being the number of applications in that particular date range.

It's definitely encouraging to see a different perspective. Good Luck!

so far in all the theories (methods) we had discuss on this form, X and Y are more or less assumptions. for quick reference I have copied Assumptions form first page of this form:
Assumptions:
0. VB provided correct info in terms of 50% reduction in eB1 demand.
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the latest we have is from last year).
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
5. 30% people w PDs bet Jan-Jul 2007 missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
6. 3-4K EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011.
7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
8. R485 at 100%
9. SYA at 37-50%
9. CP allocation factored in demand. So SOFAD is free of CP. From EB2 perspective assumed minimal even otherwise.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September . It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year .

I totally agree with you TK. I must mentioned that you have good insight on all theories so far we had discuss. The beauty of your analysis is you most of the time stick with the real DOS or USCIS release data.

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

I think all (or most of ) models we have discussed so far on this form should stay in place because none of them are proven even 50% accurate

Actualy every month Charles Oppenheim personally visit first 7 days to prediction forms and make sure none of our GC-Guru theory prove to be right, otherwise his job will be on risk and TeddyK/Spec/Nishanth/Leo07/etc would replace him (Charles Oppenheim) and from next visa bulletin somebody here will say "Of course, Q's source may enlighten us earlier on the release dates, and / or any trend in movement."

Good Luck everybody!

[imdeng]

Completely agree with TK. Number of days is a result of SOFAD and 485 density. We have just passed through the absolutely highest 485 density ever - the early 2007 - that is why the number of days movement is lower even though we cleared the highest number of EB2IC visas ever. The good news is that the density now declines continuously (except for the unusual spike in 2010) - and the current data (2011) seems downright pre-2005 like.

In my view, the whole EB2IC crisis is a result of the fact that H1B limit was raised to 195K for a few years in Y2K and later without a corresponding increase in EB GC numbers. All these H1B people hit the EB GC market in a few years and there was no supply. Now that H1B has gone back to 65K (and lower - actual usage this year might not reach the limit), the economy is in shambles, there is competition for skilled labor from other countries, and the supplier countries are doing much better themselves, I am confident that the EB2IC backlog will revert to its early 2000 levels - a very manageable few months to a year backlog. We are unfortunate to live through the messy time in the middle, but as Q says, everything regresses to mean eventually - and I think people who are getting into the queue right now will have a much easier time than people getting in the line in 2006-2009.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September . It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year .

[zenmaster]

Completely agree with TK. Number of days is a result of SOFAD and 485 density. We have just passed through the absolutely highest 485 density ever - the early 2007 - that is why the number of days movement is lower even though we cleared the highest number of EB2IC visas ever. The good news is that the density now declines continuously (except for the unusual spike in 2010) - and the current data (2011) seems downright pre-2005 like.

In my view, the whole EB2IC crisis is a result of the fact that H1B limit was raised to 195K for a few years in Y2K and later without a corresponding increase in EB GC numbers. All these H1B people hit the EB GC market in a few years and there was no supply. Now that H1B has gone back to 65K (and lower - actual usage this year might not reach the limit), the economy is in shambles, there is competition for skilled labor from other countries, and the supplier countries are doing much better themselves, I am confident that the EB2IC backlog will revert to its early 2000 levels - a very manageable few months to a year backlog. We are unfortunate to live through the messy time in the middle, but as Q says, everything regresses to mean eventually - and I think people who are getting into the queue right now will have a much easier time than people getting in the line in 2006-2009.

+1
That is my view too...
Hopefully CO is able to visualize this declining density and is able to move the dates relatively fast to build the inventory - give enough time to USCIS to adjudicate - and lastly not waste visas due to insufficient time !

[soggadu]

Completely agree with TK. Number of days is a result of SOFAD and 485 density. We have just passed through the absolutely highest 485 density ever - the early 2007 - that is why the number of days movement is lower even though we cleared the highest number of EB2IC visas ever. The good news is that the density now declines continuously (except for the unusual spike in 2010) - and the current data (2011) seems downright pre-2005 like.

In my view, the whole EB2IC crisis is a result of the fact that H1B limit was raised to 195K for a few years in Y2K and later without a corresponding increase in EB GC numbers. All these H1B people hit the EB GC market in a few years and there was no supply. Now that H1B has gone back to 65K (and lower - actual usage this year might not reach the limit), the economy is in shambles, there is competition for skilled labor from other countries, and the supplier countries are doing much better themselves, I am confident that the EB2IC backlog will revert to its early 2000 levels - a very manageable few months to a year backlog. We are unfortunate to live through the messy time in the middle, but as Q says, everything regresses to mean eventually - and I think people who are getting into the queue right now will have a much easier time than people getting in the line in 2006-2009.

imdeng...

i may not agree with your point that EB2 is in crisis becoz of 195K H1B at some point of time. You remember till 2005 or so Eb2 was current mostly... also most of Y2K'rs filed in EB3 so EB3 can curse for that. Now it doesnt matter what numbers H1B are, everybody will start/started applying in EB2 through what ever means... The best bet to reduce this mess would be to take STEM graduates from the quota which will definitely almost make EB2 current...

[neospeed]

imdeng...

i may not agree with your point that EB2 is in crisis becoz of 195K H1B at some point of time. You remember till 2005 or so Eb2 was current mostly... also most of Y2K'rs filed in EB3 so EB3 can curse for that. Now it doesnt matter what numbers H1B are, everybody will start/started applying in EB2 through what ever means... The best bet to reduce this mess would be to take STEM graduates from the quota which will definitely almost make EB2 current...

I vote for removing the dependents from being counted for visa numbers

[Spectator]

Moved some posts to General Discussion http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ion-Discussion

[soggadu]

I vote for removing the dependents from being counted for visa numbers

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....as they might be separated, divorced, go back to their country and all...

[nishant2200]

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....as they might be separated, divorced, go back to their country and all...

A # is not visa number. You get that even on OPT EAD.

I see where u r coming from. To solve that, they could simply devise a schema where there is a main visa number : xyz-n, where xyz counts for the allocation, while n from 1 to m, m is a +ve integer, denotes beneficiaries under that allocation.

As far as divorce etc goes, ppl marry citizen and get divorced after 5 years, would they deport him? My friends parents are citizens but they live in India on PIO card. So what.

Technalities like this can be solved a number of ways if there is a will in policymakers.

[neospeed]

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....as they might be separated, divorced, go back to their country and all...

well how are they doing this with h-4?. they need to come up with similar solution. This is the one way to sneak in some visa numbers without getting much attention to this issue.

I don't think exception for stem etc, go thru becos of opposition from IEEE etc.

[soggadu]

A # is not visa number. You get that even on OPT EAD.

I see where u r coming from. To solve that, they could simply devise a schema where there is a main visa number : xyz-n, where xyz counts for the allocation, while n from 1 to m, m is a +ve integer, denotes beneficiaries under that allocation.

As far as divorce etc goes, ppl marry citizen and get divorced after 5 years, would they deport him?

Technalities like this can be solved a number of ways if there is a will in policymakers.

Divorcies dont get deported but they do have a file of their own rather than under an umbrella as being suggested... this is just an example i am using ...

Also, the solution u mentioned is a complex one when it needs to get political approval... IMHO there are other ways than not counting dependents as once they get GC no one is depended any more... The one i recently heard and like is Staple Visa... Degree ke liye aavoo GC pavoo... No H1/L1 ... people spend on degrees, US retains them... no brain drain... but i am really not 100% on this as everybody should get an oppurtunity to come into this country... but there should be a mid way... my 2 cents...discussion overr....

[soggadu]

well how are they doing this with h-4?. they need to come up with similar solution.

H4 is just like a sit at home visa neo.... they are not eligible for anything which use govt funds... but GC people are...

[Spectator]

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....

soggadu,

I think you misunderstand how it would work.

Everything would be the same as now - individual A# etc.

The only difference would be that only the Primary applicant visa would be counted against the allocation. The 3 visas received by the Dependents would not, even though they were still issued.

Presently, taking a family of four, they consume 4 visas, all of which are counted against the overall numerical limit of 140k and any other limit due to Preference Category or Country.

If Dependents are not counted against the allocation, only one visa (the Primary applicant) would be used from the limited numbers.

So, if we say the average numbers of Dependents per primary is 1.25, then 140k visas effectively becomes 140 * 2.25 = 315k even though only 140k are still being used.

[neospeed]

H4 is just like a sit at home visa neo.... they are not eligible for anything which use govt funds... but GC people are...

Lol, is there a rule for H-4 needs to work once H-4 gets a GC?

[nishant2200]

H4 is just like a sit at home visa neo.... they are not eligible for anything which use govt funds... but GC people are...

There is an internal memo that march 2012 on, H4 because primary is on AC21 caused H extension, would get EAD.

[soggadu]

I understand spec...but where are those numbers accounted? can they have an un accounted category?... there is always a category when they issue GC from lottery to family... where do the dependents fit in? should they be charged with family? Lot of questions arise with this...

[soggadu]

There is an internal memo that march 2012 on, H4 because primary is on AC21 caused H extension, would get EAD.

H4 has always been able to get EAD once they apply for AOS right and somebody is on AC21 because s/he(primary) has already applied for AOS right... am i missing something...

[bieber]

Not clear Nishant
Pls explain

Recently there was a report saying, with H1b extension H4 will be eligilbe for EAD (starting in Q2 2012)

[gc_usa]

There was a news while ago that H4 can get EAD where H1b is on AC21 , which means are on H1b ext beyond 6th year based on pending labor more than 365 days , approved labor and/ or approved I 140 and who does not have got chance to apply for I 485 because of retrogression. It can't be done through just internal memo but it has to go through rule making process where uscis , dhs or dos will publish rule for comment for 90 days and after that they can send out internal memo to all officer to approve such a request and also modify EAD form to accommodate such category.

Just to make it clear in past pre filling I 485 without date being current was on rule making agenda for 2 years and never make through finally DHS took it off.

[soggadu]

Recently there was a report saying, with H1b extension H4 will be eligilbe for EAD (starting in Q2 2012)

awesomooraama... is it really true and happening thing? can you please confirm...Q2 bole toh... from 2012 Jan ?