WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

[whereismygc]

WhereismyGC's Self Service Forecast tool is built to allow users model their own scenarios.

The current immigration pause has created a potential opportunity for backlogged candidates in Employment category in two different ways.

A) Consulates stopped processing EB1/2/3/4 categories. (Pl note EB5 is not affected). - Max visa spillover 1831 per month within EB for current year.
B) Consulates stopped processing all FB categories. - Max visa spillover 16008 per month to EB for next FY.

If you are an AOS candidate, here is how you can model this scenario in WhereismyGC. (please note this will not work for counselor processing cases).

1. Login to www.whereismygc.com
2. Click on iForecast on your Dashboard
3. Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2020 write 162963. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and adding technical* allocation of 6463 to annual quota)
4. Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2021 write 175099. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and then reducing the 2021 number by the 2020 artificial technical allocation of 6463)
5. Hit Submit

Please note that as Q said earlier this month, the numbers will be there if the pause continues. But allocating those numbers for backlogged candidates lawfully is a policy decision. Nobody can predict how the administration will choose to use the extra visas. Thus treat these predictions as best case scenario.

Good luck to all.

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Update 1 - The 2021 number adjusted by the technical over-allocation done in 2020 in order to simulate the AOS backlog reduction.

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[jimmys]

Thanks for the update! Now we're eagerly waiting for a discount code

[whereismygc]

Thanks for the update! Now we're eagerly waiting for a discount code

Here is a 10% promo code available to the users of this blog - QSBLOG

[jimmys]

Here is a 10% promo code available to the users of this blog - QSBLOG

Thank you!

[whereismygc]

As per whereismygc, the FB spillover is going to be ~35K for the EB category. Given whereismygc's earlier predictions, it's most likely going to be the vicinity of 35K. In that case, EB1/EB2/EB3 each will receive ~9975. In EB2/EB3 India will benefit a lot from it.

Please understand that it is just an estimate not prediction at this point. We don't know how long the immigration pause goes on nor we know whether the administration will accelerate FB AOS to reduce spillover this year nor we know whether next year they will have something else up their sleeve to prevent EB backlog from benefitting from all these extra visas. So at this time treat these as possibilities rather than prediction.

[jimmys]

Please understand that it is just an estimate not prediction at this point. We don't know how long the immigration pause goes on nor we know whether the administration will accelerate FB AOS to reduce spillover this year nor we know whether next year they will have something else up their sleeve to prevent EB backlog from benefitting from all these extra visas. So at this time treat these as possibilities rather than prediction.

Point taken.

[Zenzone]

Please understand that it is just an estimate not prediction at this point. We don't know how long the immigration pause goes on nor we know whether the administration will accelerate FB AOS to reduce spillover this year nor we know whether next year they will have something else up their sleeve to prevent EB backlog from benefitting from all these extra visas. So at this time treat these as possibilities rather than prediction.

This is based on just a 60 day suspension and no extensions of it, right?

[whereismygc]

This is based on just a 60 day suspension and no extensions of it, right?

Here we laid out our thought process.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64051

[Zenzone]

Here we laid out our thought process.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64051

Just signed up sir

[whereismygc]

Just signed up sir

Thank you Sir. If you have any problems please raise them here or via email.

[Zenzone]

Thank you Sir. If you have any problems please raise them here or via email.

I plugged in your suggested updated numbers for 2020 and 2021 overall EB availability to account for a potential (fingers crossed) FB SO. It gave a better result for sure I also assume your model doesn't account for potential Eb2 to Eb3 downgrades if dates move in a non-linear fashion in the near-term. Right?

[whereismygc]

I plugged in your suggested updated numbers for 2020 and 2021 overall EB availability to account for a potential (fingers crossed) FB SO. It gave a better result for sure I also assume your model doesn't account for potential Eb2 to Eb3 downgrades if dates move in a non-linear fashion in the near-term. Right?

Yes they will certainly produce good results if the administration / agencies don't pull some funny tricks.

As per EB down/up grades -- we no longer consider that a serious consideration. We had predicted EB3I downgrades 3/4 years back. Since then EB3I has achieved parity with EB2I

[Zenzone]

Yes they will certainly produce good results if the administration / agencies don't pull some funny tricks.

As per EB down/up grades -- we no longer consider that a serious consideration. We had predicted EB3I downgrades 3/4 years back. Since then EB3I has achieved parity with EB2I

Got it. So the expectation is that they move in more or less similar parity without leap frogging too much ahead of each other.

[whereismygc]

Got it. So the expectation is that they move in more or less similar parity without leap frogging too much ahead of each other.

Yes for now it certainly looks like that. There could be ebbs and flows e.g. EB3-Nurses from Philippines esp during COVID might upset EB3-I movement. But at this time there is no evidence of that.

[whereismygc]

We see more and more people signing up. We welcome all. Here are some key things to remember.

1) Please feel free to raise any questions here. This way others too can benefit.

2) If you see any error - please raise it - it only helps us improve it for everybody.

3) While we do publish our own take on EB forecast, please do use the tool to create your own forecast too.

Good luck and god speed to your GC and freedom.

[suninphx]

When I entered the revised numbers for Fy2020 and Fy2021 and clicked on submit, I was redirected to the dashboard and didn't see any date estimate. Is this just me?

[whereismygc]

When I entered the revised numbers for Fy2020 and Fy2021 and clicked on submit, I was redirected to the dashboard and didn't see any date estimate. Is this just me?

That is not normal behavior. Lets see if others are experiencing the same.

Normally user stays on the same page. If the subscription is active, user sees the forecast using the inputted numbers. If the subscription is not active, the user sees "Please subscribe to view" message.

Meanwhile can you please try again and send us some screenshots by email. We will try to solve this for you.

[suninphx]

You are right I land on this page --> "Please subscribe to view".

Didn't realize iForecast needs a paid subscription as well. My bad.

Thanks for the response.

[whereismygc]

No worries. Thanks.

You are right I land on this page --> "Please subscribe to view".

Didn't realize iForecast needs a paid subscription as well. My bad.

Thanks for the response.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

WhereismyGC's Self Service Forecast tool is built to allow users model their own scenarios.

The current immigration pause has created a potential opportunity for backlogged candidates in Employment category in two different ways.

A) Consulates stopped processing EB1/2/3/4 categories. (Pl note EB5 is not affected). - Max visa spillover 1831 per month within EB for current year.
B) Consulates stopped processing all FB categories. - Max visa spillover 16008 per month to EB for next FY.

If you are an AOS candidate, here is how you can model this scenario in WhereismyGC. (please note this will not work for counselor processing cases).

1. Login to www.whereismygc.com
2. Click on iForecast on your Dashboard
3. Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2020 write 162963. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and adding technical* allocation of 6463 to annual quota)
4. Under "Enter Available Visas" for 2021 write 175099. (assuming 3 months pause in 2020 and then reducing the 2021 number by the 2020 artificial technical allocation of 6463)
5. Hit Submit

Please note that as Q said earlier this month, the numbers will be there if the pause continues. But allocating those numbers for backlogged candidates lawfully is a policy decision. Nobody can predict how the administration will choose to use the extra visas. Thus treat these predictions as best case scenario.

Good luck to all.

---

Update 1 - The 2021 number adjusted by the technical over-allocation done in 2020 in order to simulate the AOS backlog reduction.

---

Can you please point me to a prior post (maybe from Spec?) that explains how the spillover system is setup to work? I don't quite understand why the available 2020 EB visas would increase from the allotted annual number of 140,000 to 156,500. I see 156,500 visas as the default option in the iForecast module.

Also, what is the basis for adding an additional 6,463 "technical" visas to the 2020 allotted annual number? What are these? Again, I ask because I am simply behind the curve on this topic.

My PD is July 7, 2009, and I am just hoping to be able to file I-485 this October.

Cheers!

[whereismygc]

Can you please point me to a prior post (maybe from Spec?) that explains how the spillover system is setup to work? I don't quite understand why the available 2020 EB visas would increase from the allotted annual number of 140,000 to 156,500. I see 156,500 visas as the default option in the iForecast module.

Also, what is the basis for adding an additional 6,463 "technical" visas to the 2020 allotted annual number? What are these? Again, I ask because I am simply behind the curve on this topic.

My PD is July 7, 2009, and I am just hoping to be able to file I-485 this October.

Cheers!

The usual EB quota is indeed 140K. For 2020 it is 156,500. You can find it in the latest visa bulletin. The spillover goes from EB4/5 to EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3.
We have explained the origin of the technical allocation above as well as a rough way to think about it. But of course there are finer ways to arrive at a realistic number and we would like to keep it a trade secret.
Hope this helps.

[whereismygc]

The June visa bulletin is out.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2020.html

It does show the impact of CP shutdowns in consulates abroad. Across the board we see movement. But it is more pronounced for EB1-India that moved almost an entire year due to the extra visas available in EB1 as well as potential spillover from EB4/5. EB3-India has bigger movement compared to EB2-India because EB3-I has relatively more number of people seeking GC via CP rather than AOS.

Overall a positive bulletin - not quite satisfactory for EB2-India though.

[whereismygc]

We have updated the forecast model at www.whereismygc.com with the following changes.

1) EB1 India demand correction (we underestimated demand. demand increased)
2) EB3 ROW demand correction (we underestimated demand. demand increased)
3) Covid consular processing halt (moderate positive impact in 2020, significant impact in 2021) (please see this post for detailed discussion). Now we feel confident that the numbers are there to be applied to we updated that directly in our model.

Finally, EB3 Mexico Vietnam Philippines dates are retrogressed. We think there is some funny business going on there. There is no way EB3 Mexico has enough EB demand to be retrogressed. So we don't want to make any forecast for those categories.

[jimmys]

Has the latest bulletin been included in whereismygc forecast?

[whereismygc]

Has the latest bulletin been included in whereismygc forecast?

The bulletin has moved generally in line with our predictions. We expect more movement. As long as USCIS does not shut down/furlough, we believe there will be more movement.