WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

[idliman]

Hi Folks,
I have approved I-140 in EB2 & 3 with priority date in July end 2010.
I am a premium subscriber of WhereisMyGC and per that my estimated date for EB3 is Average - Jul 2020 and Pessimistic is Sept 2020.

1. Do these dates make sense? When I read the posts on this thread, I get a completely different picture. People are talking about it is going to take 4-5 years just to clear 2009 and all that. Then how come the 'whereismyGC' dates are so optimistic? Should I base my decision based on those dates?

Sept 2020 target date for JUL2010 PD (EB2I & EB3I) is not realistic. I am in end of NOV09 and am expecting at least 2 to 3 years for 2009 to clear out. The big thing to watch out for EB3I is the Consular Processing numbers. They took nearly 55% of EB3I numbers last year and the demand will still be there when the PDs keep moving. So EB3I is not going to move fast to your PD. As a pessimistic case, I would allocate at least 4 to 5 years for your PD and decide (Sorry, but this is my humble opinion). This is assuming that there is no meaningful spillover to EB2I or EB3I. May be the next model update in WhereisMyGC will reflect more meaningful prediction dates.

There are only two chances for an immigration law in the short term. 1) If a democratic President takes over, it may be a game changer (reform law). However, the chances of a sitting president getting reelected are always high. 2) If Supreme Court favors the president in DACA case, that can also lead to some kind of reform (as the democrats will be willing to compromise).

[excalibur123]

Sept 2020 target date for JUL2010 PD (EB2I & EB3I) is not realistic. I am in end of NOV09 and am expecting at least 2 to 3 years for 2009 to clear out. The big thing to watch out for EB3I is the Consular Processing numbers. They took nearly 55% of EB3I numbers last year and the demand will still be there when the PDs keep moving. So EB3I is not going to move fast to your PD. As a pessimistic case, I would allocate at least 4 to 5 years for your PD and decide (Sorry, but this is my humble opinion). This is assuming that there is no meaningful spillover to EB2I or EB3I. May be the next model update in WhereisMyGC will reflect more meaningful prediction dates.

There are only two chances for an immigration law in the short term. 1) If a democratic President takes over, it may be a game changer (reform law). However, the chances of a sitting president getting reelected are always high. 2) If Supreme Court favors the president in DACA case, that can also lead to some kind of reform (as the democrats will be willing to compromise).

I am Nov 09 too - good to know you idliman.

[optimista]

Sept 2020 target date for JUL2010 PD (EB2I & EB3I) is not realistic. I am in end of NOV09 and am expecting at least 2 to 3 years for 2009 to clear out. The big thing to watch out for EB3I is the Consular Processing numbers. They took nearly 55% of EB3I numbers last year and the demand will still be there when the PDs keep moving. So EB3I is not going to move fast to your PD. As a pessimistic case, I would allocate at least 4 to 5 years for your PD and decide (Sorry, but this is my humble opinion). This is assuming that there is no meaningful spillover to EB2I or EB3I. May be the next model update in WhereisMyGC will reflect more meaningful prediction dates.

There are only two chances for an immigration law in the short term. 1) If a democratic President takes over, it may be a game changer (reform law). However, the chances of a sitting president getting reelected are always high. 2) If Supreme Court favors the president in DACA case, that can also lead to some kind of reform (as the democrats will be willing to compromise).

Got that. Thanks a lot. And I really appreciate your opinion, even if it is not indicating any good news. So for I have burned my fingers every time by taking dose after dose of Hopium and it has never resulted in anything good for me and my family. So I would rather take a bitter dose of reality. Thx.

[whereismygc]

Since there has been talk about WhereismyGC forecast - we would like to urge folks to not reveal premium forecast.

The forecast is based on numbers and data. In addition to 485 data it also includes consular processing numbers. It also allows us to model migrations from one category to another. Thus the forecast view is quite comprehensive in nature. Additionally it does have different kinds of parameters that we set regarding 485 processing times or denial rates etc ... just to name a few.

We just want you to understand that the forecast is quite scientific and is no hopium.

However over years, DoS/USCIS have certainly found ways to always find the next pocket of ROW demand and have fulfilled that demand over chronic EB-India backlog. That is our biggest dark horse.

Hope this helps.

[whereismygc]

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[optimista]

Since there has been talk about WhereismyGC forecast - we would like to urge folks to not reveal premium forecast.

The forecast is based on numbers and data. In addition to 485 data it also includes consular processing numbers. It also allows us to model migrations from one category to another. Thus the forecast view is quite comprehensive in nature. Additionally it does have different kinds of parameters that we set regarding 485 processing times or denial rates etc ... just to name a few.

We just want you to understand that the forecast is quite scientific and is no hopium.

However over years, DoS/USCIS have certainly found ways to always find the next pocket of ROW demand and have fulfilled that demand over chronic EB-India backlog. That is our biggest dark horse.

Hope this helps.

Hi

I did not mean that 'WIMGC' was giving me doses of hopium. In general all like me who are in this situation are only living on a very, very faint ray of hope and it has not worked out any good for any of us. On a serious note, it is a fact that the forecasts are not coming in to a reality for whatever reasons for a long time now. If they are not working then the model/algorithm needs to be revised in a way that gap between reality and forecast is reduced to a minimum. You can't give excuse of USCIS doing this and that, etc. that needs to be built in to the model then. My honest 2 cents. Hope you don't mind. And to be clear, I have never doubted the intentions behind the service and it does help in giving some level of visibility in to the complex situation.

[iatiam]

Hi

I did not mean that 'WIMGC' was giving me doses of hopium. In general all like me who are in this situation are only living on a very, very faint ray of hope and it has not worked out any good for any of us. On a serious note, it is a fact that the forecasts are not coming in to a reality for whatever reasons for a long time now. If they are not working then the model/algorithm needs to be revised in a way that gap between reality and forecast is reduced to a minimum. You can't give excuse of USCIS doing this and that, etc. that needs to be built in to the model then. My honest 2 cents. Hope you don't mind. And to be clear, I have never doubted the intentions behind the service and it does help in giving some level of visibility in to the complex situation.

Optimista,

I can feel your pain. Of all the pain inflicted by immigration, aging out of kids is the worst and I don't wish it on my worst enemies. All I can say is, hang in there. No one - prediction websites or even government agencies - have enough useful data to predict the future movement. Always take these predictions with a huge bag of salt.

However, what we know for sure is that there is some incremental change in EB allocation because of FB visas and if we are lucky, some more horizontal SO. Next year is election year and typically tumultuous year for economy, markets and immigration. Who knows, we might all be collectively lucky next year.

On your side, do what is needed to be done. Like someone said, EB3I CP cases are very high and there is no indication that it is slowing down. So from your side, you can start efforts to port to EB2 and keep both I-140s ready. You already have Canada as plan B and may be you can even talk to your manager to see if you can move to Canada for an year and then move back and file in EB1C.

Iatiam

[optimista]

Hi @Iatiam,

Thank you so much for the kind words of support. Means a lot to me. I wish you and your family the best too. FYI - I do have a application in both EB2 and EB3 (started in EB3 and then filed EB2 as well). Mostly I am thinking of moving to Canada to ensure me and my family have at least some future in North America if dates here in US keep moving at snails pace. I do not think my current employer can support me in Canada. I will have to reboot and reinstall myself in Canada which is going to be another pain. In any case, if I move there, I plan to move one of the applications to CP just in case and would also hunt for employment which can move me back to US on EB1C, but its a long and unreliable shot though (what if EB1C application does not go through). I never thought, better part of my life would be wasted in waiting for immigration to resolve, but its unfortunate that we all have to go through this.

Anyways, let's hope for the best. Cheers :-).

[whereismygc]

Hello Optimista,

No misunderstandings. Your suggestions are welcome. We do keep reviewing and adjusting the model. And it has worked quite well.

We have a money back guarantee if we forecast you to get a GC in current year and you do not get it. So far nobody has availed it.

We do not give guarantee beyond current USCIS year because immigration forecasting starts becoming very volatile after one year. The volatility is systemic and there is not much we can do about it.

We don't pretend to know precise information. It simply does not exist. Our EB 2/3 India forecast is reasonably accurate in a year and decently accurate over 2-4 years and only directionally accurate anything beyond that. For any other categories and countries without acute backlogs, the accuracy is much higher even for longer term.

Hope this helps. Please feel free to challenge us and / or send suggestions via this thread or email or private messaging.

Hi

I did not mean that 'WIMGC' was giving me doses of hopium. In general all like me who are in this situation are only living on a very, very faint ray of hope and it has not worked out any good for any of us. On a serious note, it is a fact that the forecasts are not coming in to a reality for whatever reasons for a long time now. If they are not working then the model/algorithm needs to be revised in a way that gap between reality and forecast is reduced to a minimum. You can't give excuse of USCIS doing this and that, etc. that needs to be built in to the model then. My honest 2 cents. Hope you don't mind. And to be clear, I have never doubted the intentions behind the service and it does help in giving some level of visibility in to the complex situation.

[iatiam]

Hello Optimista,

No misunderstandings. Your suggestions are welcome. We do keep reviewing and adjusting the model. And it has worked quite well.

We have a money back guarantee if we forecast you to get a GC in current year and you do not get it. So far nobody has availed it.

We do not give guarantee beyond current USCIS year because immigration forecasting starts becoming very volatile after one year. The volatility is systemic and there is not much we can do about it.

We don't pretend to know precise information. It simply does not exist. Our EB 2/3 India forecast is reasonably accurate in a year and decently accurate over 2-4 years and only directionally accurate anything beyond that. For any other categories and countries without acute backlogs, the accuracy is much higher even for longer term.

Hope this helps. Please feel free to challenge us and / or send suggestions via this thread or email or private messaging.

This conversation is between Optimista and WhereismyGC so apologies for chiming in.

Just where do you get this data for forecasting? CP numbers are available and you said you are using it. I get it. But 485 data? People like Spec have regularly challenged the accuracy of 485 inventory data and even for that, we don't have any thing since EB3I started moving forward. So how do you claim so confidently that scientific?

For all the fancy models and algorithms, all predictions have to pass the smell test.

Iatiam

[whereismygc]

This conversation is between Optimista and WhereismyGC so apologies for chiming in.

Just where do you get this data for forecasting? CP numbers are available and you said you are using it. I get it. But 485 data? People like Spec have regularly challenged the accuracy of 485 inventory data and even for that, we don't have any thing since EB3I started moving forward. So how do you claim so confidently that scientific?

For all the fancy models and algorithms, all predictions have to pass the smell test.

Iatiam

No worries at all. It was easy when 485 inventory used to be published. As it no longer gets published we have to infer 485 numbers from other available data. That's about as much as we can reveal.

As per your questions about our model and how it is scientific please refer to our FAQs. Our smell test is our prediction itself. For a few bucks you can smell it and see if it stinks yourself. There is money back guarantee for those who we predict will receive GC current USCIS year and do not get it.

[whereismygc]

Forecast updated.

[whereismygc]

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On Monday Feb 17th we will make our Day plan available and give it away FREE to increase cancer awareness.

All we ask is you donate a dollar to any cancer charity, or just hug somebody you know affected by cancer.

[4WatItsWorth]

Most of us know somebody affected by cancer.

On Monday Feb 17th we will make our Day plan available and give it away FREE to increase cancer awareness.

All we ask is you donate a dollar to any cancer charity, or just hug somebody you know affected by cancer.

Where is the link to the day plan? I can only see Basic, Semi-Annual and Year plans here - https://www.whereismygc.com/pricing.php.

[whereismygc]

Where is the link to the day plan? I can only see Basic, Semi-Annual and Year plans here - https://www.whereismygc.com/pricing.php.

It is available now. Please check again.

[4WatItsWorth]

It is available now. Please check again.

Thanks but now getting, “Sorry, we do not accept yahoo email addresses..” I am getting a feeling that it is a prank of some sort.

[whereismygc]

Thanks but now getting, “Sorry, we do not accept yahoo email addresses..” I am getting a feeling that it is a prank of some sort.

We actually do not accept Yahoo address.

[paramjit74]

I just now checked the whereismygc forecast for my date. It says that there are about 7500 people ahead of me but the pessimistic forecast for my date is Sep 2020. I am confused because in the pessimistic case we should get 2800 each year to EB2I which means it should take about 3 years.

[4WatItsWorth]

We actually do not accept Yahoo address.

It does not let me enter anything else in those text boxes. My yahoo email address is 'stuck' in there. Clicking Next clears them but it still does not let me enter anything. You guys may / may not be running a good forecast but, unfortunately, I found the user experience frustrating. Yahoo! email has ~250 million users, BTW.

[whereismygc]

It does not let me enter anything else in those text boxes. My yahoo email address is 'stuck' in there. Clicking Next clears them but it still does not let me enter anything. You guys may / may not be running a good forecast but, unfortunately, I found the user experience frustrating. Yahoo! email has ~250 million users, BTW.

Sorry for the troubles. But Yahoo has given us significant headache in terms of mail delivery. We can update your email in the system. Just send us an email at help at WhereismyGC. Or else simply create a new account.

[EB22010Dec]

I just now checked the whereismygc forecast for my date. It says that there are about 7500 people ahead of me but the pessimistic forecast for my date is Sep 2020. I am confused because in the pessimistic case we should get 2800 each year to EB2I which means it should take about 3 years.

I have screenshots of forecasts for few quarters now.
You all can see my PD from my handle, the people before me in the backlog used to be 35k, then it came down to 27k and now it went up to 55k.
I am sure there is logic behind this, but no clarity has ever been provided into any of the metrics in the site; even when I paid 'real' money for this service.

[whereismygc]

I have screenshots of forecasts for few quarters now.
You all can see my PD from my handle, the people before me in the backlog used to be 35k, then it came down to 27k and now it went up to 55k.
I am sure there is logic behind this, but no clarity has ever been provided into any of the metrics in the site; even when I paid 'real' money for this service.

Of course there is logic behind. This is not rocket science. This is estimated demand. The demand keeps changing as people get approved. However recently we made a significant upward revision of our estimate. This was necessary after realizing that EB2-I dates have pretty much stagnated in 2009 indicating pretty dense demand. We did send out an email when we had made the last update. We can't explain our methods and sources. But suffice to say we try to build a demand picture consistent with the pace with which people are being approved.

[EB22010Dec]

Of course there is logic behind. This is not rocket science. This is estimated demand. The demand keeps changing as people get approved. However recently we made a significant upward revision of our estimate. This was necessary after realizing that EB2-I dates have pretty much stagnated in 2009 indicating pretty dense demand. We did send out an email when we had made the last update. We can't explain our methods and sources. But suffice to say we try to build a demand picture consistent with the pace with which people are being approved.

It would have been good to see last few years spillovers and how they tracked to your predictions. Just to make it as transparent as possible.

[whereismygc]

It would have been good to see last few years spillovers and how they tracked to your predictions. Just to make it as transparent as possible.

Thank you for the suggestion. We will consider it. We can only build it going forward. It will be nice if a few people put forth clear picture of what will help them.

Forecasting is difficult art, but happy to hold the feet to the fire. Few years back we were the first to forecast that EB3-I will catch with EB2-I. That has already come true.

[jimmys]

I don't think your EB-3 India predictions are correct. Can you check it?