EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

woh toh mein waise bhi nahi kar saktha ji...bahut costly padegi....

[cbpds1]

you made my day !!

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

[srimurthy]

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

[gchopeful123]

We should officially name him "Source Baba"!!!

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.

[soggadu]

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

murty garu... r u back from hibernation already? ... anyway check the facts and data section spec and veni has the perm numbers divided on monthly basis...

[bieber]

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

[bieber]

woh toh mein waise bhi nahi kar saktha ji...bahut costly padegi....

I keep away myself from posting on such replies to improve the signal but this is hilarious

[vchirakala]

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

[ssvp22]

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

My date is Oct 22 2007. Right now i am doubting if i will get through in 2012.

[veni001]

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

srimurthy,
You can chek PERM Certification Data (CY-FY Matrix) under FACTS AND DATA Section

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

bieber,
Based of FY2011(Q1+Q2) data and recent Fact Sheet released by DOL it doesn't look that way, let's wait and see.

[soggadu]

My date is Oct 22 2007. Right now i am doubting if i will get through in 2012.

you got to be kidding me... mine is same PD ssvp... and dont be so pessimistic ss bhai... according to Q, we should be cool by end of Q1 2012...

VC bhai...you neednt wait chirakaalam(forever) for your PD to be current...expect it to be blipping on the radar by/before end of FY 2012...

[imdeng]

Awesome - Thanks Spec. You guys do great work here and if I understand the process a little better now - its all due to the awesome content you guys have here. Also a HT to Teddy for his IV thread - I no longer participate there - but I did learn a lot there.

imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.

[bieber]

bieber,
Based of FY2011(Q1+Q2) data and recent Fact Sheet released by DOL it doesn't look that way, let's wait and see.

Veni, when do u think Q3 perm numbers will be released? also, if you happen to create a table with approved dates for calculating EB1 140s, can you please share it?

[mesan123]

Hum tho line me last ...my priority date is 2/2011...humara number tab ayyaga....when all you guys are green....

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....

[grnwtg]

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

There are 20% chances that you will get chance to file 485 to get EAD this year and GC next year.
There are 80% chances that you will get GC by next year end. Actually by next year there are good possibilities but uscis is not leaving any chance to delay this. Example: recent addition of new category to eb2 with out increasing the number of visas.
There are 100% chances that you will get GC in next 2 years.

[rahil1]

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"

[nishant2200]

But are they doing it for people needing visa, or GC, or EB2 etc. any input on that.

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"

[rahil1]

thats the million dollar question.. but its is not a fact that "companies not hirings, no job growth"

[vchirakala]

Thx soggadu. May be another 1 year to get my EAD atleast ;-(

[vchirakala]

Atleast if i get my EAD I will be happy.

There are 20% chances that you will get chance to file 485 to get EAD this year and GC next year.
There are 80% chances that you will get GC by next year end. Actually by next year there are good possibilities but uscis is not leaving any chance to delay this. Example: recent addition of new category to eb2 with out increasing the number of visas.
There are 100% chances that you will get GC in next 2 years.

[Spectator]

Veni, when do u think Q3 perm numbers will be released? also, if you happen to create a table with approved dates for calculating EB1 140s, can you please share it?

bieber,

The Q2 file was released on 4/29/2011, so it should be any time now.

My only worry is that if all resources are diverted to sorting out the PWD mess, the publication might be delayed.

[evoori]

My first post here.. Was a silent spectator here for long but couldn't resist in getting involved in such an interesting forum..

Regarding PWMBs..
I see around 23K PERM approvals from India itself for 2007 in FACTS AND DATA.. If we take 7/12 approvals 2007. we have around 14K Perm approvals leading to 30K I485.. If we assume 40% to be EB2, that leads 12K PWMBs.. Anything wrong with my assumption..

Regarding BTM..
If DoS does go for BTM now, they have to issue GCs to all the preadj. cases.. otherwise next month when they retrogress, those who don't get GC (late July and Aug 2007) will start crying..

My first post, so don't beat me..

Teddy

Thanks. I dont disagree w all these things. But try working with numbers and work it backwords starting with 2012 spillover season.
Even if we go with 20K sofad calculations will look as follows:

20 k = leftover till Aug 2007 + pwmb + porting + 2 X M

where M = months beyond and including August

20 = 3 + (3+3) + 2 X M

so M = 5.5 months

That brings us to Mid January 2008

So if USCIS needs to clear a case in January, when should they have that case in? I think India/China and ROW have different standardsfor 485 processing. 6-9 months is minimum. Even if you go with 6 months, it means by end of Q2 i.e. Mar 2012 - Mid Jan 2008 has to be reached.

If USCIS does that then they are left with Zero cases in their hopper in Sep 2012 unless they move another couple of months between May - Sep 2012.

In my judgement they wont move so much on the edge of knife! At all times they would want to maintain a healthy buffer or work in progress inventory. Thats why rather than mid Jan 2008, the movement should at least be till Mar 2008 for EB2IC by Mar 2012.

[kolugc]

Because of this economy I am thinking of moving to a Product Co which I know closely from the consulting firm I am in. My PD is 09-June-2008 and have my I140 approved from my consulting firm.

If I move to the new Co, what would have to do for keeping my PD. AFAIK,

1. I have to apply for a new Labor Cert from the new job (in the new location)
2. When I transfer my H-1B visa I should use the approved I140, so that I can get the visa extended to 3 more years along with the H-1B transfer.

Other questions
1. Is there anything else I have to take care of?
2. New labor should not take more than 3-6 months right?
3. If I joined the new Co by Jan 2012 and if the my PD becomes current sometime in Mar 2012, then if my labor cert is not through with the new job, what should I do?
4. Can I join back at my Old Co and apply 485 from there (I can do this with out another H-1B transfer (back to old Co), because I do have a valid H-1B with them through 2013 Jan.

Please let me know what you guru's think about my options? Or do you think its a risk to join the new firm?

[natvyas]

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)


I think the demand data (if USCIS wants to publish one) should be out tomorrow and the bulletin on Friday

[nishant2200]

natvyas, this is usual for them to update the page on the early first week of the month.

It does not necessarily imply anything about the timeline of the bulletin release, IMHO.

But good information regardless, keep the news coming! At least it means there will be a bulletin

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)


I think the demand data (if USCIS wants to publish one) should be out tomorrow and the bulletin on Friday